If Bell’s bat outweighs his defense, the heart of the batting order will be better for it.
Photo by Charles LeClaire/USA Today Sports

With the “real” spring training games starting, the offseason prospect talk needs to stop. Time for our fourth and final installment of our winter, but first our previous pieces in a very clickable format:

The Dreamers (High Ceiling, Low Floor)
The Safe, But not Sexy (Low Ceiling, High Floor)
The Fringe (Low Ceiling, Low Floor)

Every prospect has a range of potential outcomes for their career, some being wider than others. We decided to break the break the system down into tiers this year grouping players based on their ceiling and floor. For the sake of this conversation a player with a ‘high ceiling’ would be an average or better position player or a #3 or better in a rotation. A ‘low ceiling’ would be like a bench or non-closer type bullpen role. Meanwhile a player with a ‘high floor’ is someone who we felt pretty good will stick in some capacity on a major league team for multiple seasons. A ‘low floor’ would include your AAAA, cup of coffee or career minor leaguers.

High Ceiling, High Floor players are often incorrectly described as can’t miss. They do and more often than people acknowledge. However, if you’re going to have a critical mass of a certain type of prospect, you’d probably build a system with this type first. These are Top 100-type prospects, but make no mistake not every single player in this category has true star power. If you have average upside and a good chance of sticking around the show for a while, here you belong.

Unlike other categories, there was a lot of consensus among those surveyed on these guys. If you follow the system, you’re not going to get some the inside scoop on some hot prospect, just some hot takes.

Josh Bell

Steve DiMiceli (SD) – Most underrated tool at First Base? Hit. Most overrated tool at First Base? Defense. Josh Bell is still a work in progress, but the bat will play enough to generate a lot of runs in the middle of the lineup even if he boots the occasional grounder.

Michael Bradley (MB) – Keith Law just said 5 WAR a year possibility.

Alex Stumpf (AS) – Barely a rookie anymore. The glove is still the biggest concern. Should be a middle of the lineup bat Opening Day.

Kevin Creagh (KC) – His true ceiling will not be as limited by his defense as it will be by his lack of in-game power.  His body frame screams perennial 35 HR’s, but he’s looking more like a high teens HR guy right now.  That just won’t be enough at 1B to overcome his defensive lapses.  If he bombs dingers into the Allegheny, that will cover up a lot of flaws.

Kurt Hackimer  (KH) – We spend so much time talking about what Bell can’t do (play defense) that we may overlook what he can do, which is hit the snot out of the ball. His power might never match his imposing frame, but Bell has excellent bat control and plate discipline beyond his years. And, after talking to him several times last season, he seems to be a humble guy who will enter 2017 as a much more complete player than he was in 2016.

Tyler Glasnow

AS – Control issues still linger, both with walks and not serving up meatballs. He was rushed a bit in 2016, but he should be a contributor in 2017.

KC – His lack of a third pitch and needing a sundial to time him to the plate worry me a great deal and I was a huge supporter of his.  He still has low-end #1/high-end #2 potential, but Steve’s dire prediction of bullpen stud last year is at least more a possibility for me now.

MB – Dellin Betances at worst.

KH – Control problems have kept Glasnow in the minor leagues longer than expected, but these issues don’t change who he is: A tall, supremely athletic young starter with two plus pitches. There is no way anybody can look at Glasnow and not see his star potential, which makes it all the more difficult to remain patient while he puts it all together.

SD – I still have questions about Glasnow’s floor due to the reasons stated above, but I’m excited about his ceiling due to the reasons stated above.

Mitch Keller

MB – MLB Pipeline best command in minors.

KH – Injuries stymied his progression in 2015, but Keller made the leap to full-blown prospect with a dominant season in the Sally League last year. Keller has already demonstrated impressive control, which should bode well for his future as a big league starter, even if he doesn’t have the obvious pedigree of someone like Glasnow, Jameson Taillon or Gerrit Cole.

SD – It’s a rare case where I’d give a player this far from the majors a high ceiling, but Keller feels like the real deal even in a small sample.

KC – This year’s rapid riser in the system, Keller is being talked about as a future #2 level pitcher.  His K/BB ratio was phenomenal in 2016, so we’ll see how he progresses this year at High A.  I’d love to see him tested at AA at some point in August.

AS – Keller looks poised for a breakout this year. He may not have Glasnow’s fastball, but he has better control and comparable offspeed stuff.

Nick Kingham

AS – Finally back after Tommy John surgery. He only has 20 starts at the AAA level, but he should be available for a spot start or two in the majors in 2017.

KC – Tommy John recovery is hopefully behind him this year, so he can again be considered as a #3/4 level pitcher.  If not, I’m unsure how his stuff would play in the bullpen and he could find himself without a chair when the music stops.

MB – Pitching is most in demand position, hence his rank.

SD – I have my concerns about the longevity of players returning from TJ, but I think he could still be a middle of the rotation cog for a little while at least.

KH – Kingham was on his way to a major league call-up when his elbow gave out in 2015. By the time he recovered from Tommy John surgery toward the end of last year, Chad Kuhl had already stolen his fourth spot in the Pirates rotation. Kingham appears to be back on track, though, and should be on the shortlist when the Pirates need an arm to fill in a rotation spot.

Austin Meadows

KC – I’m a little worried about his injury proneness in the early part of his career, ranging from hamstrings to fractured orbital bones while playing catch in the outfield.  He has yet to put a full season together.  If he can consolidate his gains this year, he can slot right into RF upon McCutchen’s departure at some point during/after the 2017 season.

KH – Meadows has been touted as Andrew McCutchen’s heir apparent for a couple of years now, which makes a lot of sense. He’s got everything you look for in a major league player: Power, speed, hitting acumen, defensive instincts. Meadows has struggled with injuries, but at this point he’s just waiting for a spot to open up in the Pirates outfield.

AS – We finally saw his raw power come into play in AAA, hitting six homers with a .246 ISO. The batting average was lower than hoped for, but it should improve.

MB – Mark Kotsay at worst.

SD – It’s taken me a while to truly get to the party on Meadows, and I still think his being cast as the next Cutch might be a little big for his britches. However, it’s important to keep in mind that while Starling Marte was OPS’ing .819 in his age-21 season in the FSL, Meadows split his OPS’ing .976 and .757 with a crap BABIP in AA and AAA respectively.

Kevin Newman

KH – His ceiling isn’t high the way that Meadows’s ceiling is, but Newman has the defensive chops to stick at short and has a remarkable eye at the plate. That combination of glove and patience should be enough to keep him in the majors for a long time, even if he never develops consistent extra-base power. Has the upside of someone like Freddy Sanchez.

AS – Newman has always boasted a good average, but he’s been walking more since playing pro ball. He tore up High A ball to get promoted to Altoona and held his own there. A trip to the majors may be coming in 2018.

SD – You can be an average shortstop with little more than a fair glove and a really good hit tool. In an era where it feels like you’re not a shortstop prospect if you’re not a superstar shortstop prospect, the Pirates may have a steady producer in Newman.

KC – I think Newman will be able to competently play either SS or 2B in the majors defensively.  But like Cole Tucker, I don’t like his bat.  He has no power, but makes great contact.  To me, that’s a utility man profile more than a starter.  If he develops to his 90% capability, he might be a better Jordy Mercer.

MB – MLB Pipeline best hit tool in minors.

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And in case you missed those links above.

The Dreamers (High Ceiling, Low Floor)
The Safe, But not Sexy (Low Ceiling, High Floor)
The Fringe (Low Ceiling, Low Floor)

Will 2014 1st round pick Cole Tucker realize the potential that got him drafted?
Photo by Mike Janes/Four Seam Images

Time for the third installment of our new fangled prospect series. First, we looked at the fringe prospects who have both a low floor and a low ceiling. Then we had a look at the likely contributors with limited upside whose rookie cards I’d have had no interest in as a child. This week we’ll look at the “high ceiling, low floor.”

Every prospect has a range of potential outcomes for their career, some being wider than others. We decided to break the break the system down into tiers this year grouping players based on their ceiling and floor. For the sake of this conversation a player with a ‘high ceiling’ would be an average or better position player or a #3 or better in a rotation. A ‘low ceiling’ would be like a bench or non-closer type bullpen role. Meanwhile a player with a ‘high floor’ is someone who we felt pretty good will stick in some capacity on a major league team for multiple seasons. A ‘low floor’ would include your AAAA, cup of coffee or career minor leaguers.

High ceiling, low floors guys often spark the most debate in any prospect conversation. We’ll see some of that controversy below. Some folks will focus on the floor, and ignore the ceiling often due to distance from the majors.  Others will focus on  the ceiling ignoring how few players in this group get there. Almost every person I’ve ever talked prospects with has a guy or two in this category they love. For me personally, this is any player with pedigree in the low minors, or an advanced player who still seems quite raw. They are the proverbial high risk, high reward types and really the range of outcomes for these players are unlimited.  Truly this is a group to dream on.

Will Craig

Alex Stumpf (AS) – He was a unanimous All-American before being drafted in the first round last year. Has raw power, a knack for getting on base and a cannon for an arm. His glove needs a lot of work though, and that power has not translated to game situations yet. May project better as a first baseman.

Kurt Hackimer (KH) – Craig was one of the best power-hitting prospects from last year’s draft class, which is good because he’ll need every bit of that power to make it to the major leagues. Craig is big, slow, and destined to move from third to first. He will have to hit at a clip much higher than the .280/.412/.362 he posted in 63 games at Low-A West Virginia last season to make an impact as a first baseman.

Michael Bradley (MB) – He could be a slower Jason Bay with a cannon.

Steven DiMiceli (SD) – Imagine if the Pirates had a chance to do everything over again with Pedro Alvarez and take the time to develop his hit tool in the minors instead of spring training. That’s Will Craig. He still needs work with the wood bat, but I think he has the potential to be a well-above average major league hitter.

Luis Escobar

KH – Escobar is a skinny Colombian pitcher who really whips his fastball. The problem is he rarely knows where his pitches are going. Still, there is plenty of potential for growth.

MB – Supposedly has 3 decent pitches and velocity is improving.

SD – A player who has slowly grown on me. He was essentially a college freshman in a league meant for juniors and excelled.

AS – Like many of the Pirates’ young righties, the fastball gets him on this list. His curve has spin, but he has to be able to throw it for strikes.

Yeudy Garcia

AS – Garcia’s fastball has gotten him this far, but concerns with his command, frame and offspeed stuff makes him a concern. That heater could still get him in the majors though.

Kevin Creagh (KC) – Age is starting to creep up on him as a true prospect. He could be a valuable #3, but it appears as if his path is more to the bullpen with a plus fastball.

KH – I have a hard time labeling a 24-year old who hasn’t pitched above A-Ball as “high ceiling,” so Garcia and his 95 mph fastball can sit in this category.

MB – If he starts out well as a starter I’d trade him while value is high.

Ke’Bryan Hayes

SD – Remember how I said there was a ton of debate on high ceiling, low floor players? Kevin, Kurt, Michael, and myself all have had him in a different category.

AS – Hayes has some power, posting a .130 ISO in A ball in 2016. He’s also just turned 21, meaning that he can still grow. Projects to be a plus fielder as well.

KH – Hayes is already one of the best defensive third basemen in the minor leagues and has posted high contact rates at the plate since entering pro ball. The question with Hayes has always been whether he can develop enough power to stick at third in the big leagues, but he’s only 20 years old and there is still plenty of time to dream as his 6’1” 210-pound frame fills out.

MB – Still has time to become Brent Morel.

Taylor Hearn

KH – Hearn throws really goddamn hard. While the Pirates are going to try their hardest to turn him into a starter, it’d be pretty fun to see him fire 100 mph. darts out of the bullpen.

AS – He’s the biggest wild card in the Pirates’ system. If he is stretched out to a starter, he could be elite. He has the type of fastball to be a great reliever too. Also has a good chance of fizzling out.

KC – This year’s Shiny New Toy is the flamethrowing Hearn, who sits 96-98 from the left side and has touched 100. He’s been babied with workload due to injuries, so this year will be crucial to see if he can blossom as a starter.  If he can’t, watching Hearn throw 100 mph gas from the left side could be the Pirates’ bargain version of Aroldis Chapman.

SD – The most exciting prospect in the system right now for me.

Gage Hinsz

KH – Hinsz has the frame of an innings eater and showed flashes of potential last season. At this point, however, he’s a long way from the big leagues.

AS – He has a plus fastball but the offspeed stuff is lacking. He had an atrocious walk rate his first two years in the system, but only walked 2.4 per nine in 93.1 innings in A ball.

MB – The player from Montana not the player named Montana.

SD – 2017 will probably tell us a lot about where Hinsz is heading. I don’t think his ceiling is huge, but he still is young and projectable enough that he could end up a solid 3/4 type. I would be pleasantly surprised if he plays much higher than that.

Max Kranick

MB – Have to root for the polished HS pitcher from PA.

SD – Not many people would project Kranick as having a big ceiling, but not many would have put a bunch of NH’s prep breakouts in this category either. Kranick is a long way off but there were some serious positives in his brief pro debut.

Travis MacGregor

MB – Sickels likes him best of 2016 draftees.

KH – MacGregor was a mystery when the Pirates picked him in the second round of last year’s draft and remains a mystery through his first spell of pro ball. He has a projectable frame, a decent fastball, and a good changeup, but is very much a project.

AS – If MacGregor grows into his 6’3” frame, he could be someone to keep an eye on. With a little more muscle, he might be able to get his fastball into the mid-90s consistently.

SD – Pirates missed out on their sandwich round moonshot on Nick Lodolo before going off the reservation with MacGregor. It’s time to trust the front office when they see something in a pitcher that others don’t.

Braeden Ogle

SD – Ogle is a very interesting pick who is on my breakout watch for 2017 along with Escobar, Kranick,  MacGregor and possibly 5th round pick Blake Cederlind. Of that group, I would only give Escobar a higher ceiling than Ogle.

KH – Ogle is a projectable lefty in the Gulf Coast League who is very far away from the majors. Two years from now he could emerge as a legitimate prospect or fade into obscurity. How’s that for analysis?

MB – If he get control and learns a breaking ball to add to velocity and good change….

 Cole Tucker

MB – Could be Corey Seager or Chase D’Arnaud.

KH – A serious 2014 shoulder injury could force Tucker to move away from shortstop, which would definitely diminish his value as a prospect. Still, the former first rounder has good speed, good hands in the infield, and the makings of a decent hitter. Gap-to-gap power could expand as the 20-year old grows up.

KC – If Tucker can stick at SS, that’s a huge boon right there.  I’m unsure if his repaired shoulder will allow him to.  Or if he outgrows SS, I’m not positive his somewhat anemic bat will play at another position.

AS – The former first round draft pick has a high ceiling, but he has not done a lot to wow people in his three years in the minors. Scouts worry that the switch-hitter will need to abandon swinging right handed. Stole 25 bases in 2015, but had more failure than success on the basepaths in 2016.

Dovydas Neverauskas should see time in the Pirates bullpen starting this year…as long as he his off-the-field flareups under control.
Photo by Denis Poroy/Getty Images

Here comes round two of our prospect break down. Last week we looked at the fringe prospects who have both a low floor and a low ceiling. This week we’ll look at the “low ceiling, high floor.”

Every prospect has a range of potential outcomes for their career, some being wider than others. We decided to break the break the system down into tiers this year grouping players based on their ceiling and floor. For the sake of this conversation a player with a ‘high ceiling’ would be an average or better position player or a #3 or better in a rotation. A ‘low ceiling’ would be like a bench or non-closer type bullpen role. Meanwhile a player with a ‘high floor’ is someone who we felt pretty good will stick in some capacity on a major league team for multiple seasons. Meanwhile a ‘low floor’ would include your AAAA, cup of coffee or career minor leaguers.

Below, you’ll find players who probably won’t ever make an All-Star game, but they’re players who should stick in the majors for a little while. They may even get a couple of seasons as a regular. They should make it through their pre-arbitration years and might make it to year three. Some might even play an important role in the bullpen or fill in for an injured starter in the rotation.  These players add value especially early in their career as they cost next to nothing in salary. Generally speaking, they’re also close to being major league ready. If you don’t have guys like these, teams need spend a few million a year just to get a decent bench player sucking up resources that can be allocated to more important positions. You can’t build a contender with these types of prospects, but every team needs good role players.

Again, there isn’t perfect agreement on where we thought these players fit, but I tried to fit them in as best I could.

Steven Brault

Kevin Creagh (KC) – Brault outlasted Tarpley in the Battle Of The Steves. I think Brault is a #5 long-term and don’t think much of him as a bullpen piece.

Michael Bradley (MB) – Keith Law said his best use is reliever.

Alex Stumpf (AS) – He’ll return to the majors in 2017. His strikeout and walk rates both spiked after making the jump to AAA. Doesn’t have a killer fastball, but works around it. Potential back of the rotation starter.

Kurt Hackimer (KH) – Brault made seven starts in the majors last season as the Pirates tried to patch together their injury-riddled rotation, but his deceptive sinker-slider combination would probably be more effective coming out of the bullpen. Fastballs left up in the zone will frequently be crushed.

Elias Diaz

KH – Even though Neal Huntington insisted that Francisco Cervelli’s contract extension and Diaz’s early season elbow injury are unrelated, it’s tough to buy that as a coincidence. Diaz is a great defensive catcher, but has already has multiple 60-day DL stints under his belt and it remains to be seen if that elbow injury affects his stellar arm strength. Unless Cervelli is traded, it seems as if Diaz’s path to the majors will include a fourth year at Triple-A and a stint as a backup.

AS – If Francisco Cervelli would have left in free agency, Diaz probably would have been the starter this year. Great arm and has been praised for his ability to call a game. Bat leaves something to be desired.

MB – He could be a 10 year backup or second tier starter.

KC – Diaz can’t stay healthy and his bat has evaporated for the most part.  His advanced age is playing against his “prospect” status for me.  I think he’s just a backup catcher.

Alen Hanson

Steve DiMiceli (SD) – If the ghost runner on second extra innings rule becomes a thing, every ML bench will have a spot for somebody like Hanson.

KH –  Hanson has been around forever and his profile is obvious:
Speedy, switch-hitting utility guy who can’t get it together at the plate. He’s out of options, so the Pirates will have to either keep him on their bench or let him go elsewhere.

MB – Could use another year in AAA

AS – There was a time that Hanson looked like the second baseman or shortstop of the future. After two very average years in AAA, that does not seem like the case. His best tool now is his speed, but he doesn’t get on base enough to use it to its potential. Spring Training is “do or die” time for him since he’s out of options.

Clay Holmes

KH – Like many other pitchers on this list, Holmes is a borderline major league starter with a major arm injury on his record. Holmes has a good fastball that might play up in relief and a variety of off-speed stuff that shows room for improvement. Could make his major league debut sometime this season as a spot starter.

AS – Prognosticators worried the Pirates would lose him in the Rule 5 draft two years in a row. Needs to make progress as a starter or he may be put in the bullpen.

MB – Seemed to struggle with command post-TJ, but did get added to the 40 man.

SD – His fastest path to the majors is in the bullpen or as trade bait.

Max Moroff

KC – Moroff is a little bit like an earlier prototype of Kevin Newman, in that I think he could be a 2B, but is more likely a utility guy in the majors. But his speed and moderate power should at least get him a bench spot one day.

AS – Moroff has always been able to draw free passes, walking in 17.3% of his plate appearances in Indianapolis last year. Can play three infield positions. I wrote a whole article gushing about him, so maybe I’m a little biased. If I was a GM of a team that’s rebuilding, I would trade for him and give him a full season in the field.

MB-  His patience and power and slick glove will be rewarded.

KH –  If Moroff possessed the raw tools that Hanson has, he would be in the major leagues right now. Moroff is a polished fielder who can play all over the infield. He’s a patient hitter, but probably lacks the pop to secure a consistent starting job in the major leagues. Could still contribute in a bench role.

Dovydas Neverauskas

KC – Strictly a bullpen guy, but he could be a dominant one with his fastball.  If his stuff backs up or if his off field issues linger, he might just be a middle reliever type.

KH – Neverauskas was never a prospect as a starter, but somehow seems like a shoe-in to join the Pirates as a reliever in 2017. Weird. I guess some guys are just cut out for bullpen work.

AS – He and his mid-90s fastball should reach the majors sometime in 2017. There were control and off the field issues last year, but if he straightens them out, he could be a gem.

MB – Barfight shame will cause him to dominate Spring Training

Trevor Williams

AS – The Pirates have plenty of middle of the pack rotation arms and Williams is the most major league ready. AAA pitching coach Stan Kyles praised his makeup and composure on the mound when I talked to him in July. Potential swing-man/reliever.

MB – Could be the new goofball, 6th inning groundball guy.

KH –  Williams’s 94-mph sinker just screams “Pirates,” but he’ll struggle to amount to anything more than a fringe starter if he can’t refine his command of that pitch. Has a good slider that will help him against lefties. His changeup probably won’t play as anything more than a supplementary pitch.

KC – Pretty much the exact same thoughts as Brault — #5 pitcher with no true out pitch that might not work out of the pen.

Brandon Waddell doesn’t have killer stuff, but the Pirates have aggressively moved him so far.
Photo by Mark Olsen/MiLB.com

Tired of prospect countdowns to fill the space between the winter meetings and Spring Training? So were we, so we decided to try something different this year. In years past we used to break down the system into a composite top 40 with our Pirates’ writers commenting on each one. You know just like everyone else does. Here at TPOP we pride ourselves for being weird and we’re happy to give a new spin on the matter.

Every prospect has a range of potential outcomes for their career, some being wider than others. We decided to break the break the system down into tiers this year grouping players based on their ceiling and floor. For the sake of this conversation a player with a ‘high ceiling’ would be an average or better position player or a #3 or better in a rotation. A ‘low ceiling’ would be like a bench or non-closer type bullpen role. Meanwhile a player with a ‘high floor’ is someone who we felt pretty good will stick in some capacity on a major league team for multiple seasons. Meanwhile a ‘low floor’ would include your AAAA, cup of coffee or career minor leaguers.

For today, we’re looking at guys with a low ceiling and a low floor (LC/LF). The vast majority of prospects fit this mold, some are just more interesting than others. For me, these players may have more upside, but they’re either too far away from the majors to put much certainty into the floor or are too raw to show any potential. This is the category the sleeper or even the deep sleeper comes from. The odds are long, but you should still keep an eye on these guys.

Keep in mind there isn’t perfect agreement on where we thought these players fit, but I tried to fit them in as best I could.  These are the players that had some consensus among the TPOP staff, as virtually every other player in the system could be categorized as LC/LF.

Stephen Alemais, SS

Kurt Hackimer (KH) – A 2016 third rounder, Alemais has the athleticism necessary to stick at shortstop but doesn’t have a good feel for hitting.

Steve DiMiceli (SD) – Puts the ball in play, but doesn’t do much else at the plate. The Pirates picked him early and pushed him as far as the SAL in his first year. That has to mean something, right?

Barrett Barnes, OF 

Alex Stumpf (AS) – Barnes was finally healthy all of 2016, and with a good offseason workout plan, he hit .306 for Altoona. It may be too little/too late, though, now that he’s 25.

Michael Bradley (MB) – John Sickels loved him out of Texas Tech and he destroyed the ball last year.

KH – Barnes was a borderline prospect for the past couple of years, but recurring bouts with injuries have cost him speed and tons of development time. At 25, he’ll likely have to tear the cover off of the ball in Double-A to remain on next season’s top prospects lists.

Kevin Creagh (KC) — At this point, Barnes’ best hope is to have a solid year in the minors and get drafted in the Rule 5 draft in December.  He’s a fourth outfielder, at best, and is too injury-prone for my liking.

Frank Duncan, RHP

KH –  Duncan is a Triple-A innings eater who should eventually at least get a cup of coffee in the big leagues. His best weapon is a sinker that sits in the high 80’s, so it’s unlikely that he’ll stick in the majors for very long.

MB – Might not have stuff for majors but destroyed AAA last year.

AS – Duncan dominated in AAA, posting a 2.33 ERA in 20 starts. He could be a guy to watch if he proves that it was not a fluke. May get called up for an emergency start this year. Potential future September call-up.

SD – He wouldn’t be the first RHP to make it without a 90 MPH fastball, but he won’t be the last like him to post big minor league numbers and miss.

Tyler Eppler, RHP

MB – Transition to bullpen might suit him well.

AS – Eppler’s progress with his changeup last year gives him potential of being a major league starter with a three pitch mix. Need to see him continue to grow to get too attached to him, though.

Jin-De Jhang, C

SD – Every so often Jhang will hit six homers in a week and a half and that’s all I can think about, even when he goes a year and a half before he hits his next.

KH – Jhang speaks three languages and has a good glove behind the plate, but he lacks mobility and will probably just hang around as minor league depth.

Kevin Kramer, 2B

MB – Has some pop and could be a SS if not for Newman.

AS – Kramer initially struggled making the jump to high A, but rebounded to post a .277/.352/.378 line. His range is lacking, but when he is at second, he has been consistent if he gets to the ball.

Jordan Luplow, 3B

SD – There is something about Luplow that screams late bloomer. There is some pop and he gets on base. His BABIP and K rates aren’t helping matters, but his hit tool will need to take some strides before I upgrade him.

AS – He has a great walk rate and raw power, homering 10 times with 23 doubles in 354 at-bats. If he can iron out some kinks in his swing, he could be a bench player.

Jose Osuna, 1B-OF

AS – A recent addition to the 40-man roster, but partially due to necessity. An .815 OPS in AAA is intriguing though.

MB – Good defensive 1B and capable in corner.   Could do well going oppo in PNC.

Brandon Waddell, LHP

AS – Waddle does not have an out pitch, but he does have slightly above average offspeed stuff. Projects better as a starter than a reliever, but he probably won’t get that chance. Potential September call-up.

SD – Waddell got an aggressive push this season to A+, killed it and then lost his control in AA. He’s kind of a wait and see at this point. He closed the season well.

KC – I hang my hat on the “Pirates Push A Pitcher To High A” theory.  The crux of it is…Pirates draft a college guy, next year they skip the guy over Low A to High A (after he spent it in short-season ball during his draft year), then…success?  The Pirates have done it with Justin Wilson, Adrian Sampson, Chad Kuhl, Frank Duncan, and now Brandon Waddell.  Doesn’t mean he’s going to be a star, but when the Pirates see something in a pitcher and skip him over Low A, it usually portends that he’s going to make the Majors.

Eric Wood, 3B

AS – I don’t think Wood will ever play for the Pirates. He’s either going to fizzle out after a breakout 2016 in AA where he hit 16 homers and had a .194 ISO, or he’s going to have another good year and be taken in the Rule 5 draft or traded.

SD – Do you believe in late bloomers? You should. I don’t know if Wood will amount to anything but he’s grown considerably more interesting.

Some believe that Taillon will usurp Cole as the staff ace. Having a star performance from him would be quite helpful.

I’ve been beating this drum for a while now. The Pirates failed to reach the playoffs in 2016 not because of lack of depth or a weak bottom of their rotation. It was because their stars and average players failed to perform at the level the team needed them to.  Starling Marte led the team in fWAR but still fell one short of the 5 fWAR I use to delineate between above-average and stars. No lineup is chalk full of stars and most playoff bound NL teams have 1-2 of that ilk.  For the 2016 playoff teams, this was actually down slightly compared to years past at 1.2 stars per line up, with the Mets lineup sneaking in without a star hitter. The Pirates actually had more 1 WAR or better WAR performers than every team who made it in expect for the Cubs and Giants.

Not surprisingly, the five teams who represented the senior circuit in the playoffs ranked 1-5 in all of baseball in runs allowed last year. The Pirates ranked 22nd.  The offense without its elite performers performing in elite ways did little to overcome the poor pitching. Still, there wasn’t any star power on the mound, either. Each of the playoff teams, save for surprisingly the Cubs, had one pitcher eclipse 5 fWAR. The Cubs made up for it with some near misses and overall solid depth with three pitchers exceeding 3.5. The Pirates didn’t have any of those, including Gerrit Cole who went from 5.4 fWAR to 2.5. He still led the team.

The Pirates have some options internally to make the jump to stardom or return to it this year, but the ZIPS projection doesn’t have them with any. Of course that’s not likely to turn out perfectly and it also doesn’t consider a possible position change.  Marte has yet to eclipse the 5 WAR mark but a move to center field could make that considerably easier. Assuming comparable defense to Dexter Fowler, he likely would have eclipsed the NL leading center fielder in fWAR, thanks to his comparable OPS, slightly lower K rate and and plethora of extra stolen bases. The road back over the 5 WAR hump for Andrew McCutchen could be slightly more difficult if he moves from center to left. Even if he returns to his career norms at the plate and plays average defense for the position, he should come in just ahead of the 4.4 fWAR Christian Yelich posted last season. He’ll be close, but Marte will be the team’s best bet.

Further down the depth chart, Josh Harrison has one 5 fWAR season under his belt in 2014, thanks to a big spike in ISO and a much smaller spike in BABIP. Though he’s been slightly below average since and has failed to come close to the power numbers, there is potential for more in his age-29 season. Maybe not star power, but he can get closer. More likely, Gregory Polanco will truly break out or Jung-ho Kang will fight through a myriad of distractions to realize some of his monster potential at the hot corner. Polanco got out to a quick start last year and had a sub-par second half. Not terrible, but not good either, posting an .862 OPS in the first half and a .682 in the second. Had he kept it up, he’d have been the best RF in the league and he’d have had numbers similar to Curtis Granderson in 2015 that netted him a 5.1 fWAR. Kang didn’t make it to 5 fWAR his first season, but given a full season of plate appearances and that atrocious, but brief adjustment period he had, it’s not inconceivable to think he could get there provided he sleeps with only willing, lucid partners and someone downloads the Lyft app for him.

So that’s five guys who have potential for star power in the lineup, which honestly is a wealth of depth. Likely, one or two will get there, but it’s also five guys who the Pirates should rely on for those average performances over the course of a season. If all five got there, they could get to a sixth average performance from Francisco Cervelli, Josh Bell, David Freese or even Jordy Mercer. That would be a pretty potent lineup.

Problem is the pitching, which ultimately is the NL’s annual postseason gate keeper ,even if it’s sexier to talk about the lineup. They likely won’t have the depth of the rotation that the Cubs, Mets and Nats had last year, but they could follow a similar path to the Dodgers or Giants. No, Gerrit Cole is not in the same stratosphere as Clayton Kershaw and no, Jamison Taillon at least for now is no number two alá Johnny Cueto. However, both the Dodgers and the Giants rotations were still a mess after their top two until the trade deadline. If Cole rebounds (ZIPS doesn’t think he will) and Taillon can reach the 3 fWAR plateau, the Pirates may have a little more stability and depth in the back of the rotation to be good enough. Nova is not an ideal three, but he’s a safe bet not to melt down completely. At his absolute worst, he’s still a competent major leaguer who can eat some innings. I’ve got a good feeling about Chad Kuhl, though he’ll need to command his sinker as well as control it better this year. He may not have been high on the prospect radar, but he wouldn’t be first pitcher to outperform his minor league expectations. Then there is the hodgepodge at 5 with Chad Hutchison and Tyler Glasnow currently leading the way to fill that spot. If you haven’t checked it out, Michael Bradley had an interesting analysis that pointed to patience with Glasnow as other tall pitchers have been late bloomers. He may be best to leave in the minors, but if he’s sent down his arbitration clock likely won’t be the issue. Hutchison is guilty by association with the Liriano trade, and he will likely break camp with some role for the big league club. Of course, having a five who has shown the ability to pitch up a little in the rotation won’t be the worst thing in the world. If he doesn’t work out, the Pirates will have some options after him like Glasnow, Nick Kingham, and Steven Brault. They could even dig a little deeper if need be.

Still, the stars will need to perform. The Pirates rotation has depth, but not the upside to make up for another pedestrian season from Cole. We don’t hear much about him anymore, but Jose Quintana is still in play. Adding him would put the Pirates in a very strong position and provide Cole insurance. However, it’s not inconceivable that the rotation in its current form is good enough to get the Pirates into the playoffs. Cole needs to show that 2015 wasn’t an outlier and Taillon needs to replace some or all of the good version of Liriano’s production for them to even have a chance.

More likely than not, this is a good team that had a bad year. It took a lot to go wrong to end up with the product the Pirates put on the field last year, but a lot will need to reverse course to straighten things out this year. Players bouncing back or realizing their potential is essential to get the ship moving forward again. It’ll need to happen at the plate and on the mound. They have the depth to support. Now they need the stars to shine.

Ah, the good old days when Bonds was just surly and had a normal sized head.

Tim Raines is looking like he’s heading into the Hall of Fame and some voters seem to think that’s less disappointing than having some great players who used PEDs get in.

Don’t get me wrong, Raines had a nice career and in particular an excellent run between 1983 and 1987 when he posted five consecutive season with 6 fWAR each and seven All-Star appearances in a row. Problem is, he never managed to finish higher than fifth in the NL MVP voting, didn’t return to an All-Star Game after his age 27 season, or produce 5+ fWAR after his big five campaign run. If you don’t like fWAR, his traditional counting stats don’t help much either. Raines checks in 80th on the all-time hit list tied with the great Rabbit Maranville. There are plenty of players further down the rankings in the Hall, but they often hit a ton of homers or played a premium position. He is in the top 5 in career stolen bases, but that’s generally seen as more of a sweetener stat than one to build a resume around. To his credit, he also sits eighth among all time left fielders in JAWS ranking. Problem is, Raines will go in before number one, Barry Bonds, and number four, Pete Rose on the list.

While I think Rose should be allowed to enter the Hall, even if Ichiro is my hit king, I won’t make a case for him today. Instead, my efforts are reserved for Barry Bonds and his Hall of Fame blackballing due to his steroids and Human Growth Hormone usage. Clearly, he cheated and that’s simply based on how he defied the aging process enjoying his peak years in his age 36 and 37 seasons. However, no one goes from the Hall of Very Good to arguably posting the best hitting numbers ever based on pharmacology alone.

What makes a home run hitter? In 2007, Tufts University physicist R.G. Tobin completed a study on how steroids might impact power production. I’m not citing his study to somehow discredit the impact PEDs have on stats. Clearly, they do and that’s part of his conclusions which I’ll get into shortly. However, he does note something that is often overlooked.

To hit a large number of home runs, a player must put the ball in play, not strike out or walk many times; and must hit a large fraction of the batted balls over the fence. Putting the ball in play is largely a matter of skill, and is not likely to be greatly affected by the use of strength-enhancing drugs. Hitting those balls over the outfield wall is a matter of both skill and physical strength, and could be influenced by the use of drugs that build muscle mass.

Bonds put a nice down payment on his Hall of Fame resumé before he even left Pittsburgh. Generally speaking, no one is making an argument he started using PEDs in the Burgh. He won two MVPs and finished runner up once. He also led the league in slugging and on base percentage twice. He led the league in homers his first year in San Fran. The seven year stretch from 1987 to 1993, he produced a higher bWAR than Carl Yastrzemski, Joe DiMaggio, Roberto Clemente, and Frank Robinson did over their best stretches.

Back to Tobin. He notes that steroids translate to about a 10% increase in muscle mass assuming there is a corresponding weight training program. This in turn translates to a 5% increase in bat speed. He then goes into a bunch of physics stuff that I only vaguely understand.

Tobin also notes that normal to elite homerun rates on balls in play runs somewhere in the .05-.1  range. Some sluggers of the steroids error like Mark McGwire saw their homers for balls in play spike to .15, 50% higher than a normal great slugger. Bonds’ HR to balls in play were excellent but not unbelievable in San Francisco until 1998, averaging .092 per season. From 1999 until the end of his career, the number spiked to .11. This roughly equates to roughly 40% increase over his previous norm, a clear increase, but certainly at the low range of Tobin’s expected performance improvement. Sure, Bonds spiked even higher some years including an outrageous .19, but he never went higher than .14 in other years. Steroids had an impact, but maybe not the same kind of impact as others like McGwire. If you adjust his HR per balls in play to his previous norms, Bonds drops about 100 HRs from his career total. This isn’t considering any extension of his career that the PEDs allowed, so we’ll arbitrarily lop off the last two years of his career and another 54 HRs. That takes him to 602. Good enough for 8th all time and the Hall of Fame.

Bonds likely won’t be voted in again this year. With about half the votes cast, he’s only receiving votes from about 63%, so far short of the required 75%. I had some theories about who was voting for him or better yet against him. I always presumed that there was an age gap, that older writers felt compelled to protect the “integrity of the game.” By the integrity of the games, I mean the players they loved as a youth. I also thought the voting pool was overwhelmingly old and white. I took a random sample of 60 voters who had cast their ballots by Monday and did my best to ascertain their age and race. If I could not, I moved on to someone else. I broke them down by by generational category with Baby Boomers being born prior to 1965 and Millenials being born after 1980. There weren’t any Millenials in the sample, meaning Boomers and Gen Xers composed it completely. If only Gen X voters were allowed, Bonds would have received the 76% of the vote, 1% more than the 75% needed. The majority of Boomers sampled voted for Bonds, but just barely at 51%.

The sample was disproportionately old, 35 Boomers to 25 Gen Xers and disproportionately white. Only 5% were black, and all three voted for Bonds. Ten percent were Hispanic and they split 4 to 2 in his favor.

Another argument against Bonds is the respect for the game. Again, he cheated and, yes, that is disrespectful of the game. He probably used some illegal and some legal means of getting an edge. However, no dirty tests exist confirming his steroids usage and HGH wasn’t banned in baseball until 2005.  Bonds retired (or got black balled) in 2007, but his HR per balls in play percentage returned to his normal his final two seasons. While the intended purpose of HGH isn’t to prevent aging or reduce the effect aging, doctors have prescribed it for that effect. Bonds never took speed like players in 60’s or used coke in the middle of games.  Of course a lot of those players are in or are about to go in. I’ll accept the character clause when scumbags like Ty Cobb are kicked out.

The tide is turning on who belongs in the Hall of Fame and who doesn’t. As PED hold out Dave Albee points out, not only are voters moving in the direction, but the old guard exercising too much power is slowly being forced out. Voters, many of whom don’t even write about baseball anymore, are being required to go to more games and capping honorary members of the BBWA at ten years. The Hall of Fame committee wants players like Bonds in and they are stacking the deck to make it happen.

Thankfully, it’s a matter of when, not if, but Cooperstown won’t feel complete until the best of the steroids era players make it in.  Bonds is tainted, but there are plenty of players with dirt on their resume in the Hall of Fame already. MLB has already locked out the all-time hits leader while the press has the homerun and walk leader blocked at the moment. Eventually people will forget Bonds’ controversies and see only the numbers. Eventually, he will be seen for having the all-time great career he had.   Despite any asterisks on his resumé, admitting Bonds to the Hall of Fame means admitting a new all-time great that trumps a lot of heroes from an earlier age for older voters. That might be too difficult for some of them to stomach.

Cole’s arbitration figure seems quite low, especially considering his agent.
Photo: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

I love the baseball offseason. Honestly, I almost like it as much as the regular season. There is so much intrigue. Who’s going to sign the big free agents? What trades are going to go down during the GM meetings? Who gets a qualifying offer? Asking myself why are the GM meetings even relevant anymore now that there’s Skype?  Wondering who’s going to get protected in the Rule 5 draft only to remember nothing ever happens in the Rule 5 draft. Who will fall through the cracks on the free agent market? Then there is the relief when spring training finally starts.

Amidst all of this more interesting news, I often miss news or don’t take much notice to the arbitration process after players are tendered. Not sure why, but it might have something to do with the certainty. As soon as a deal gets done, we know it’ll eventually be in the books. The question that remains is how much squabbling goes on and who, the player or the ownership, gets a couple hundred thousand extra dollars in their pocket. You already know the player is coming back, provided there isn’t a trade, which would change it into something interesting as noted above.

Every Pirate fan knew that Gerrit Cole would remain a Pirate this offseason heading into his first year of arbitration even before the tenders came in.  The only way he’d have been non-tendered would have been some clerical error where the wrong box on a form gets checked. He was going to get a contract offer that was likely below his number. Then he was going to go to arbitration, or so I thought.

Every part of Cole avoiding arbitration surprised me. Last Friday, Rob Biertempfel reported that he signed for $3.75 million. There was very little discussion of the deal, but it could be the most remarkable thing that happened this offseason.

First and foremost, $3.75 million seems incredibly low. As he does every off season, Kevin had a look where the Pirates arbitration numbers might come in.  He put Cole at a cool $2.05 million above the real number. That’s not to knock on him. In fact, the rest were pretty damn close.

What is interesting about this deal is that with Scott Boras as his agent, an agent that will wring every last dollar out of a team because of his disdain for the pre-free agency process, this was agreed upon with no squabbling.  As a comparison, check out this great Arbitration Visualization chart by Sean Dolinar at Fangraphs.  You can hover over the little dots to see what both team and player are asking for in the unresolved arbitration cases.  The Pirates and Tony Watson are haggling over a $400,000 difference.  There are some cases as little as $250,000 in difference with other teams.  So Boras, with his reams of data and being well-known for preparing exhaustive binders of research for his clients, also valued Cole at or around the $3.75M figure.

Is there a chance that the Pirates, already fresh off some voodoo to get Ivan Nova to sign what appears to be an under-market free agent deal, can sign Gerrit Cole to an extension this offseason?  Could this arbitration settlement be a pre-cursor to that, hence the lack of blowback from Scott Boras?  In July 2015, I examined the potential for an extension with Cole on a risk-based assessment.  At the time, I concluded that a 7 yr/$63M to $74M deal would be the range.  Keeping in mind that was a full season ago, it would reduce to a 6 year deal at this point accordingly.

I could be wrong on my reading of the tea leaves.  Maybe both sides agreed that Cole did not have a good 2016 season and this is his true 1 year worth.  But the door, more than at any time in Cole’s tenure, appears to be open for a long-term deal.

Tyson Ross (top left), Ervin Santana (top right), Yordano Ventura (bottom right), Jason Hammel (both left) all come with flaws, but could help Pirates’ rotation.

The Pirates offseason isn’t quite settled at this point and there are still a handful of pieces that need to come into place. They could probably use another right-handed arm in the bullpen and it’s unlikely that they’ll keep three lefty late inning relievers after the addition of Daniel Hudson, who will be somewhere in the 8th/9th inning himself. They could also use some additional Jung-ho Kang insurance, in case he finally loses his battle with hedonism and self-destruction. Of course the biggest conversation piece right now, as it was last offseason, is what to do with the third spot in the rotation.

After signing Ivan Nova, I think a number of Pirates fans have a false sense of security with the staff. Personally, I think they’re in the same boat as they were heading into last offseason. They have a clear cut one and two and a solid collection of four and five’s, with some potential middle and top of the rotation help in the system. However, they lack a true three. This has two consequences as we saw last season. One, a solid three provides insurance in case the top of the rotation falters. If your one is pitching like a three and two is pitching like a five, a good three should be able to pitch up in a weak rotation. Jonathan Niese wasn’t the guy and two solid months at the end of last off season aside, I don’t have much faith that Nova will provide that insurance policy either. If everyone is clicking, having a legit three is a great way to pile on. It’s a continuation of the top of the rotation. A weak three starts the back end early.

Along with the Astros, the Pirates have been heavily linked to the 2016 White Sox staff’s 1(b), Jose Quintana. Make no mistake he would be a huge get and would push everyone after Gerrit Cole back a spot into a role they are likely to excel in. Dream scenario, right? There is just one problem. The Pirates still need to go out and get him.

The market thins out after Quintana, but there are still some options out there. None likely bump Jameson Taillon from the number two spot, but that might be overkill anyway. Some may not even serve as a true three, either, but would allow the Pirates to eliminate the grab bag of weaker prospects and Drew Hutchison from contention for the fifth spot.

Tyson Ross

It seems like Tyson Ross’ surprising early arrival on the free agent circuit might be nearing its end with the Cubs and Rangers the favorites to land him and the Nats trailing behind hoping for a family reunion with his brother, Joe. The Pirates would be coming to the table late for Ross, but he clearly doesn’t have the offer he’s looking for on the table. Given his current injury concerns, his contract would likely be a reasonable one year term.  As a free agent he wouldn’t cost the Pirates a single prospect. If he pitches to his potential in a Pirates uniform, he’d also have the potential land them a compensation pick in the 2018 draft. There is risk, but it’s relatively low and market for the big righty seems surprisingly passive.

Ross would be a perfect fit in the in number three spot and if he rebounds to pre-injury form he’d provide top of the rotation insurance. There likely won’t be a huge drop from Ross and Taillon. On top of that, he’s a high groundball pitcher so he fits with the system and they’d also prevent the Cubs from reaping the benefits of his rebound. If the Pirates cannot land Quintana, their attention should turn to Ross first, in my opinion.

Ervin Santana

Putting it nicely, the Twins are a mess right now. They have a couple of high upside young bats who strike out way too much, a few high quality aging major leaguers, but not enough overall to be considered a threat now or in the near future. Many of the star players in their system project to start the year in AA or below. Outside of Jose Berrios, they don’t have anyone who resembles a top of the rotation starter, as their next closest option might be the inconsistent Kohl Stewart. Many of their other starting pitcher prospects profile better out of the bullpen. Now is likely the time for them to salvage what they can while those pieces still have value. Brian Dozier seems most likely to move and with the 2B coming off a monster power year and two years of cheap control left, he could provide a nice start.

Ervin Santana should also be on the block, though his return won’t nearly have the impact as Dozier’s due to age and contract situation. Santana is owed $27 million, which is still a good deal in today’s market, even if he steps back from the 3.2 fWAR he posted in 2016. Santana’s value derives from his ability to reliably eat innings, having thrown 175+ in six of the last seven seasons. If he can continue to do that he’ll be worth every penny, but most of his return will still get absorbed by salary relief. If the Twins would kick in a few million a year, their expected prospect haul would improve considerably.

Yordano Ventura

The first two suggestions would cost nothing or little in the way of prospects. Yordano Ventura would cost an arm and a leg. Ventura signed a team friendly deal in 2015 that includes two option years and $20.25M guaranteed over the next three. He had a very good 2014-15, but took a step back last year when his strikeouts decreased and his walks increased. His offspeed stuff plays well off of his huge, but hittable at the moment, fastball.  The issue with Ventura is more his temperant and churlish behavior at times.

The challenge with Ventura is how to value him. Do you go with what he’s done so far or do you go with his upside? So far, he’s looked like a solid three (exactly what the Pirates need), but he has the stuff that screams staff ace. I would think the ask for Ventura would be similar to the ask for Quintana, especially when I consider that the Royals rightfully should still believe they can compete now. It would likely take elite prospects and a major league piece or two. With the departure of Kendrys Morales, I would think Josh Bell might have a particular shine to them. Tyler Glasnow would also likely be included, but the enigmatic Ventura would basically negate the need for the enigmatic Glasnow.

Jason Hammel

Not the sexiest of picks, but Hammel could be seen as a pretty useful pitcher for the Pirates. Like Nova, he may not be a true three overall, due more to reliability than to ability. He’s not a good late season pitcher, but he does have the potential to dominate at times.  His 0.75 April ERA makes him intriguing by itself and make no mistake, he played a big part in the Cubs burying the rest of the division early.  He would allow the Pirates to keep all of their prospects and potentially bridge the gap to one of them later in the season. I would think he’s looking for a two year deal to ride off into the sunset on, though I would be surprised if anyone’s offering more than one.

***

The Pirates could also stick with the status quo though they’d be taking a risk. The good news is that they have more major league ready internal options than they did at this time last season. While they might take their lumps finding the right mix, they could have a few pitchers play up during a small window to help bridge the gap until the higher upside guys like Glasnow and Nick Kingham are truly ready. They could also get end of the season performances from Nova and Chad Kuhl making the need to add another pitcher effectively moot. The market is thin, so the Pirates will need to overpay for quality. There are options out there, however, that would improve the team and mitigate the risks associated with going into the season without a true three like they did last year.

Freshman Isiaha Mike has adapted quickly to college basketball and looks to lead a new core into A-10 play.
Image via Duquesne Athletics

On March 4, 2015, the Dukes took a disappointing 10 wins into Fordham’s Rose Hill Gym. They lost to some crap teams in non-conference and blew some games they should have won earlier in the year. Some nights they came out flat like when they visited St. Louis and hit just 38% of their free throws. Others, like their home loss to St. Bonaventure in overtime, their porous defense let them down. Duquesne fans endured Micah Mason’s struggles as he switched from shooting guard to point guard. It wasn’t an essential change but an extremely disruptive one. Mason responded like someone fed him a footlong meatball sub on normal bread when he had to carry the basketball over mid court.

That day, Tom Percora was on the hot seat, though things were looking up for the Rams. He had two of the better freshmen in the league and every starter was a relevant player, not just starters that were eligible again the next season. Fordham struggled mightily early in the season, posting a losing non-conference record and dropping their first 9 league contests in a row. However, they looked like they were turning the corner a little bit winning 4 of the previous seven. Some, like their fifteen point win over La Salle, were quite convincing. With another team looking likely to finish in the bottom four, the Rams may have thought they’d run it to ten. Instead, the Dukes put in one of their best performances in an all together meaningless game for everyone except Pecora. While his fate may have been sealed long before this, I’ve always felt like the Dukes put the final nail in his coffin as the head coach of the Rams. They won one more game in the first round of the Atlantic 10 Championship, but that was all she wrote for him. He was fired shortly after the season ended.

While it will only be the first game of the conference season, Duquesne at Fordham may go a long way to determining the Dukes’ coaching situation in the offseason. After a promising 5-1 start to the season, Fordham have fallen back and struggled. Meanwhile the Dukes have been up and down beating Pittsburgh, but losing to UMBC and Robert Morris in the same week. They lost some close games, but they also blew some big leads against inferior opponents.

Jim Ferry finds himself on the hot seat this time around and for him a good start in conference play will be crucial. Like Pecora, Ferry has a promising young crop of players with Mike Lewis II and Isiaha Mike winning 5 of the first 7 Atlantic 10 rookie of the week awards in the 2016-17 season. He also returns most of his core players for next year. However, the rough non-conference will make it considerably more difficult for him to hold onto his job. At this point, his team needs to make up for a poor start against more difficult league opponents.

Since the beginning of the season, my magic number for Ferry has been 14 wins. If he hits that, he gets to come back for a sixth season, provided his freshman and sophomores look like a group fans could put their faith in. I believe they have. Lewis II has exceeded all expectations and after a slowish start, Mike is beginning to look a little more comfortable. He still turns the ball over too much but he’s going to the hoop and the free throw line more in the last five games. Tarin Smith is also beginning to get his game legs back. His finishing is a still a bit off at times but he’s taking better care of the basketball and attacking the hoop the way we expected he might. Meanwhile, Nakye Sanders has taken the full time starting position from senior Darius Lewis and might quietly be the team’s most valuable player, despite scoring in double figures just once. The suspended Josh Steel looked excellent in his two games and could cut deeply into Emile Blackmon’s minutes if he ever gets on the court again. All five have two or more years left in their career and all, except Steel, have gone a long way to establish themselves with another crop of solid recruits on paper following them next year to serve as depth with a bench full of seniors.

It’s also worth noting that this group can defend pretty well unlike Ferry’s earlier recruits. They have the best defensive rating among any Ferry coached teams so far. They also tightened up late in the non-conference and even on days when the offense has struggled, and it’s struggled often, they’ve kept themselves in games. To me, this is a top 100/bubble NIT core. If the incoming class lives up to expectations, the group could play even higher. That’s where I want to program to be eventually, but I will take it as progress.

Pecora was in a similar situation at the end of 2015. Sure he took his lumps and honestly showed less than Ferry in his first five years. However, he had an elite player in Eric Paschall, a young core around him and some veteran leadership with Ryan Rhoomes and Mandell Thomas. Jeff Neubauer posted a winning record his first year, but could you imagine what might have been if they still had Paschall? Would they have taken the step back they did this year so far this year? It’s my opinion that Pecora had the program ready to compete. Neubauer got to take the credit. The new coach did improve defensive efficiency but not by much more than I would simply attribute to the maturation process. The offense took a step back.

However, Ferry has to show us a little something. It’s difficult for me to envision seven conference wins without the Dukes beating the Rams twice. Can it be done? Sure, but every loss and the road gets a little more difficult. Mark the sweep for the Dukes on rpiforecast.com’s Wizard, and sure enough the Dukes’ projected record is 14-17. Split and we’re down to 13-18. Lose both, and you guessed it, the expected outcome is twelve wins. You can’t sweep a team if you don’t win game one, starting this Friday night.

Hark, the Pittsburgh Trib reveals,
Nova signed a three year deal.
Sinker, Curve and a Change Up
Money overflows from his cupfig

He’s our guy that’s all that matters,
He won five and walked three batters.
Get those Series tickets ready.
My grandmother’s name is Betty.

Hark, the Post Gazette reveals,
Nova signed a three year deal.

That was as much fun as a crayon-drawn diagram.

Yesterday was a very good day for the Pirates. They improved their rotation at an incredibly reasonable price and avoided some of the complaints of the fan base by having another popular trade deadline player walk away when Ivan Nova signed a 3 year/$26M dollar deal. Many expected Nova to sign a contract somewhere in the ballpark of the 3 year/$36M last year’s late season darling, J.A. Happ, received, but Nova fell well short of that number despite a weaker market overall for starting pitching this offseason.

Nova’s deal has the potential to be a steal with very little risk of being a failure. If Nova averages just 1.2 fWAR per season, the deal can be consider break even assuming $8M per win. If he manages just 2 WAR, the Bucs will have an OK third pitcher in the rotation and a surplus value of over $20 million. If something clicked for Nova and the final two months of the season were a true breakout, the deal could pay for itself in the first season.

Here’s the issue with all the excitement, however. Can the Pirates really count on August/September Nova to be the guy the guy moving forward? As I pointed out above, they don’t need him to be for the deal to make sense, but this is what fans are expecting. My thought is ‘probably not’. While he’s always been a good control guy, a sub-1 BB/9, let alone sub 0.5 BB/9, is not a reasonable expectation.  Additionally, his HR/9  were only half his career rate. Of course other than a low HR/FB, the rest of the luck stats were pretty much in line with what you would expect and his ERA and xFIP were in the same ballpark. More telling however is Nova’s six year track record of being a solid, but not spectacular, back of the rotation pitcher who averaged only 1.4 fWAR and 125 IP in his 6 full seasons in the majors. That’s fewer innings than Jeff Locke managed the last three and a fWAR in line with Charlie Morton over his final five years in Pittsburgh.

I’m not suggesting I prefer Locke or Morton to Nova. I don’t. I’m also not suggesting that I’m not glad the Pirates signed him or that he didn’t improve the status quo. He did. The rotation went from:

1. Cole
2. Taillon
3. Kuhl
4. Hutchinson and the Rookie grab bag
5. Hutchinson and the Rookie grab bag

to:

1. Cole
2. Taillon
3. Nova
4. Kuhl
5. Hutchinson and the Rookie grab bag

Wednesday’s rotation was a problem, maybe one that I didn’t even fully comprehend the severity of until this exercise. The current rotation is better and Nova makes a strong improvement. However, Nova is miscast as a #3 just as Jonathan Niese was last year. If Nova reverts to normal Nova, it will leave a gaping hole in the middle of the rotation just as it did when Niese had, without question, his worst season in the majors. If Niese had returned to his career norms last year, the Pirates rotation would have fared decently. After all he was a steady low-to-mid 2 fWAR performer before a sub par 2015. It was a gamble they were willing to take, but of course they lost that wager. Again, I’m not saying I prefer Niese to Nova as I wouldn’t touch Niese with a 10 foot Festivus pole right now. However, great close to last season aside, Nova might be even less qualified to hold the #3 than Niese was.

Should the Pirates fail to secure a true middle of the rotation pitcher, they’d be running the same risk they did last year of the entire thing imploding early. Last year, Gerrit Cole faltered and Francisco Liriano tanked at the top. Niese struggled as well, but he didn’t have the upside to bail the top of the rotation out. If Cole doesn’t rebound, they will depend quite heavily on Jameson Taillon to not have a sophomore slump. If both struggle, would Nova provide any more insurance than Niese did? Probably not.

When I saw tweets almost immediately after the Nova signing stating the Pirates were still on the White Sox’ Jose Quintana, I was relieved. Not that I’m hell bent on Quintana in particular, nor am I sold that the Pirates have to “go for” it immediately. I do think the White Sox would make a sensible dance partner for a deal like this. Kevin outlined what he thought a trade for Quintana would take yesterday. I think it could cost more with three of the Pirates’ top four prospects likely involved before the Sox would pull the trigger. The Pirates certainly have enough to get the deal done and moving Tyler Glasnow as part of the deal might serve both the organization and the player. The Bucs could use Glasnow’s upside immediately, but he’s still some way off of pitching at that level. Chicago, now finally in rebuild mode, can afford to let him take his lumps in the Majors. With Quintana’s four years of control, he’s still a long term piece and moving a near Major League ready prospect like Glasnow wouldn’t be a huge issue. With the other trade hauls the White Sox hae gotten this offseason, I’d be hard pressed to believe they wouldn’t seek a deal that also includes two of Austin Meadows, Mitch Keller and Josh Bell. While they can easily absorb the loss of the Glasnow, any of the remaining three would sting.

I think the Pirates could make a considerably smaller move and be in a similar boat. Tyson Ross comes to mind immediately as an alternative who would just cost money. Ross is a risk, but he has a very high upside relative to Nova. At $10M over one season, he won’t be a long term payroll albatross if it doesn’t work out. If Ross rebounds, he could yield a draft pick with a qualifying offer even with the new collective bargaining agreement.

Signing Nova is a good thing for the Pirates, but probably is not a game changer. The rotation still has at least one more question mark that likely can’t be filled internally this season and it’s a bigger question mark than people will let on. The Nova contract was a very good deal that will pay for itself if he manages to just be a good #4, which is what he is. Expecting anything more would be using the same blueprint that built a flawed rotation with little margin for error last year.