Kessel has found a home here in Pittsburgh and can finally relax.
Photo by Mike Carlson/Getty

There’s a lot of city miles on the 28-year old Phil Kessel.  Lot of slings and arrows have been shot his way.  When Kessel was drafted 5th overall in 2006 (the top 5 picks were Erik Johnson by the Blues, Jordan Stall by the Pens, Jonathan Toews by the Blackhawks, Nicklas Backstrom by the Capitals, then Kessel) by the Bruins, he was seen as the savior for a Bruins team and the new face of American hockey among forwards.  Being the focus of attention in a tough media market like Boston did not bode well for the shy and media-reticent Kessel.  After the 21-year old Kessel scored 36 goals in 2008-09, he was flipped to Toronto for a series of high-end draft choices.

If you want to talk about going out of the frying pan and into the fire, then moving from Boston to Toronto as a shy hockey player would be it.  Now Kessel was not only viewed as the Next Big Thing to bring the hockey-mad Leafs fans a Stanley Cup, but he had the external (and probably internal) expectations of all the draft choices surrendered in lieu of his arrival.  Toronto is the heart of the NHL and by being Canada’s largest city, the scrutiny and muckraking associated with its media is nearly off the charts.

There were many in their media that were relentlessly riding Kessel and framing him as a team cancer and malcontent.  For a guy that apparently does not like being the center of attention, this constant pressure can result in a media meltdown, like this:

One of the main bandleaders was noted hack, Steve Simmons of the Toronto Sun.

Phil Kessel traded for next to nothing – and it’s a good deal for the Leafs. Really he had to go.

— steve simmons (@simmonssteve) July 1, 2015

So on July 1st, 2015, Phil Kessel was released from his own personal hell of six seasons under the microscope in Toronto.  He was traded to Pittsburgh for some draft picks and a couple of young players (Kaspari Kapanen and Scott Harrington), plus Nick Spaling, in a trade that at first I was not in favor of.  His story had been written in two cities and carried forward with him to Pittsburgh — he’s a locker room malcontent — and I thought he would poison the room.

But now after seeing him comport himself in the regular season, I see that he is either extremely shy or has some form of social anxiety disorder.  Here in Pittsburgh, a much softer touch of a media market, he doesn’t have to be The Man.  He doesn’t even have to be the second man, third man, maybe not even the fourth man, as Crosby/Malkin/Letang/Fleury had those spots covered.  All he was asked to do was score goals.

Much like the rest of team, Kessel was handcuffed under substitute teacher, Mike Johnston.  Once the Penguins had their shackles taken off in December, Kessel slowly started to resemble the sniper he was touted when he was traded here.  He finished strong in March with 6 goals-10 assists in 16 games, but more importantly developed an enviable chemistry with Karl Hagelin and Nick Bonino to become the Penguins strongest line late in the season and into the playoffs.

His performance in the playoffs to date, though, has completely justified the trade.  This is what he was brought here for and his 9 goals-9 assists for 18 points in 18 games (while averaging less than 17:30 of ice time per game) has made him a cult hero among fans.  The speed in which he flies down the wing, whether carrying the puck himself or receiving a long breakout pass, is a sight to behold.  His overall frame and stout face belies the speed generated from his lower body.  Kessel has been rated as one of the top 10 fastest skaters in the NHL in years past and it is on display each night.

Kessel is still under contract for the next four years at a cap hit of $6.8M (the Leafs contribute $1.2M each year to the Pens as part of the giveaway).  Maybe Kessel has found a soft spot to call home.  Maybe the locker room accepts him for what he is and overlooks what he isn’t.  Here, Kessel doesn’t have to be a leader of men.  He just has to score goals and be himself.  Which now Kessel is maybe more comfortable being.

The impending arrivals of Tyler Glasnow (left) and Jameson Taillon (right) will alter the look of the Pirates pitching staff

We are only a couple of weeks away from mid-June, which is when top prospects magically have all figured out what they needed to learn in the minor leagues and are called up within a few days of each other.  It totally has nothing to do with the Super 2 deadline.  Nothing at all.

The Pirates’ pitching staff has been a work in progress since jump street this year.  Many fans are eagerly awaiting the arrivals of top prospects Jameson Taillon and Tyler Glasnow, plus the potential arrival of lesser prospect (but quite effective) Chad Kuhl.  Here’s one man’s opinion of how and when it will all shake out.

I’ve staked out June 11th as Tyler Glasnow’s glorious ascension from Triple-A Indianapolis to Pittsburgh, so I’ll stick with that.  Glasnow is already on the 40-man roster, so no corresponding move will have to be made in that respect.  However, to get him on the 25-man roster, I would either put Ryan Vogelsong on the 60-day DL (if the Pirates are feeling charitable) or outright release him (if they are not).  Vogelsong is only making $2M this year, so the Pirates would be eating a shade over $1.2M in salary.  Even before his gruesome orbital bone fractures from being hit by a pitch, it was clear that Vogelsong is kind of running on fumes.  As for what Tyler Glasnow’s role would be, I would insert him directly into the rotation and…

…move Juan Nicasio to the bullpen.  Stick with me, Jeff Locke haters (97.8% of all Pirates fans).  Here’s a look at all the Pirates’ starters for the month of May (thru games on May 24th):

It looks like Gerrit Cole is rounding off the rough edges, but the rest of the rotation has been sub-standard.  By just ERA, Nicasio has been atrocious, even though his FIP is showing him more in line with the rest of his awful rotation mates.  Nicasio is only averaging 5 innings per start and his velocity has been wavering from inning to inning in his starts.  I feel that by moving him to the bullpen, you could strengthen the bullpen by installing him as the 7th inning guy along with Neftali Feliz.

When Jameson Taillon is deemed ready to arrive in Pittsburgh, whether that’s at the same time as Glasnow or plus/minus a few days, I would also insert him into the rotation…for a little bit of time, at least.  Taillon would replace either Niese or Locke, most likely Locke as it would be a tough public relations pill to swallow for the front office if the player directly traded for Neil Walker is relegated to the bullpen so quickly.  The Pirates, though, are carefully monitoring Taillon’s 2016 workload, as evidenced by them skipping his most recent Triple-A start to preserve his arm.  Taillon is also already on the 40-man roster, so no corresponding move would be made, but to put him on the 25-man roster I would either option A.J. Schugel back to Indy or come up with another phantom DL stint for Arquimedes Caminero (if he has not returned from Wednesday’s DL stint for a “strained quadricep”).  If Caminero, who is out of options, is DFA’ed, he will get snapped up by someone hoping to coax some control out of that 100 mph arm.

I would use Taillon in the rotation until the August 1st trade deadline is reached.  If the Pirates can obtain a solid starter at the deadline, I would then move Taillon to the bullpen.  It’s hard to project what the composition of the bullpen and their health may be on August 1st, but one of Schugel (if not already optioned)/Caminero (if not already dealt with)/Boscan could be the corresponding move to free a bullpen spot.  At that time, the full pitching staff could look like this:

• SP1 — Gerrit Cole
• SP2 — Francisco Liriano
• SP3 — Tyler Glasnow
• SP4 — Trade deadline pickup
• SP5 — Jon Niese

• Closer — Mark Melancon
• Setup — Tony Watson
• 7th inning — Neftali Feliz
• 7th inning — Juan Nicasio
• Fireman — Jared Hughes
• Floater — Jameson Taillon
• Long man — Jeff Locke

On paper, that is a much stronger bullpen than currently exists and a rotation (depending on the hypothetical deadline pickup) that is much heartier than the one that exists at the end of May.

And none of this scenario even involves Chad Kuhl, who could be a strong addition to the bullpen and maybe an improvement to the rotation.  Kuhl would involve a 40-man roster move (I’d take Trey Haley off the 40-man), but his 25-man move would be intriguing.  The Pirates could forgo the trade deadline pickup person and just slot him into the staff that way or else they could be bold and move Jon Niese or Jeff Locke in a trade.  But that is one bridge too far for this exercise, as it’s hard for me to envision the Pirates bringing three rookie pitchers into the heat of a playoff chase.

The Pirates are going to bring up Jameson Taillon and Tyler Glasnow.  Their talent is simply too strong to deny for much longer.  The real game will be to see the machinations of the roster moves and the roles that they will be asked to play.

The best ballpark in all of MLB
Photo by Brian Grublis for TPOP

Late last week, news broke that the Texas Rangers were exploring options with the City of Arlington to construct a new ballpark to replace Globe Life Park.  Normally, this wouldn’t be particularly newsworthy except that Globe Life Park was only built in 1994.  So in the timeframe of me graduating from high school to present, this gorgeous ballpark (that I visited in 1997) has become obsolete in the Rangers’ eyes.  Couple this with the fact that just five short months ago, the Rangers and Arlington announced a public-private partnership on a $200M development around Globe Life Park for hotels, retail, and mixed use commercial/residential developments.

So what changed?

In the news releases, the Rangers cite the need for a retractable roof system to combat the stifling summer Texas heat. For over $900M, that’s a heck of a roof.  I’m sure that there are plenty of other money-making amenities envisioned for this new ballpark, above and beyond what currently exist for the Rangers.  Arlington’s mayor also mentioned in the piece that Arlington didn’t want to lose the team, presumably to adjacent Dallas.

While I was at the Pirate game on Friday, I was reflecting on the Rangers desire for a ballpark to replace a perfectly good 22-year old asset.  PNC Park is widely acknowledged as either the number 1 or 2 best ballpark in MLB (ahead or behind AT&T Park for the Giants) and was built in 2001.  When the infamous Plan B was passed back in 1998, there was a huge public outcry that the taxpayers were funding a stadium without having a referendum on the subject.  The $262M PNC Park — and let’s have an interlude to acknowledge how amazing it is that PNC was built for that small of an amount, as it seems like $500M is the entry point for any stadium nowadays — was being funded with a $143M local share.

PNC Park has perfect sightlines from every point in the park.  There are ample luxury boxes, the facilities for the players and visitors are top notch, there are tons of sponsorship opportunities, and the setting on the river could probably never be replicated elsewhere.  But one day, whether it is next year, 10 years from now, or 50 years from now, the Pirates will formulate some reason that PNC Park is outdated and needs to be replaced for the economic good of the franchise.

Perhaps there will even be a threat of moving the team if the City of Pittsburgh doesn’t pony up cash to help fund this venture.  And to that I would say “go ahead” and call their bluff.  No team has been relocated since the Expos moved from Montreal to Washington, D.C. in 2005 and became the Nationals and that only happened because the team was in MLB-receivership for 3 years prior after Montreal ownership let the Expos die on the vine.  MLB doesn’t want franchises to relocate; they’re actively talking about expansion, instead, because expansion fees can be charged to incoming teams, while there is no money brought in to the other teams via relocation.  Teams may have shifted within their own metropolitan markets, but no team has been actively relocated since San Francisco and L.A. departed New York and Brooklyn, respectively, in the 1957 offseason.

There are teams that are begging to be relocated, like the Tampa Bay Rays and Oakland Athletics, who should be in Montreal and San Jose, respectively, but MLB is not actively forcing the issues.  Both are in sub-par leases, with the A’s having the extra hurdle of San Jose being part of San Francisco’s theoretical territorial rights, thus blocking them further.  MLB Central could step in and make a one-time cash payment to the Giants if they really and truly wanted the A’s in a better market, but they haven’t and won’t.

Which brings us back to the Pirates.  Back in 1998 when Plan B was being ramrodded through, I was a 22-year old fresh out of college with disposable income and no responsibilities.  Sports were my life.  Today, I realize the financial implications of what sports franchises do and don’t mean for a city.  I see how much revenue is brought in and how unfair it is to ask struggling cities and already-burdened taxpayers to help shoulder the load to create a new billionaire’s playground.

Sports are one of modern times’ greatest scams on the taxpayers.

Back then in 1998, sports were a business, but the influx of huge TV deals did not yet cause all major sports to become mega-businesses.  Case in point — Kevin McClatchy bought the Pirates for $92M in 1996.  Today, Forbes has estimated that the Pirates are worth $975M.  I know there’s inflation, but not 10-fold in 20 years.

There’s too much money at stake for MLB to just allow teams to willy-nilly relocate.  There has to be a valid reason and all avenues have to be explored within the existing market before MLB will allow a billion dollar asset to up and move.  So when teams threaten to move, it’s humorous to see all the handwringing by fanbases and hoop jumping by politicians.  MLB is also not going to move one of the iconic, historical franchises in the form of Pittsburgh, either.  Not until every potential ownership ground in the tri-state region is asked a couple of times to buy them.

I take my kids to PNC Park now and I hope to take my grandkids to PNC Park in the future.  And I hope my kids take their grandkids to the iconic jewel along the Allegheny River, as well.  PNC Park is only 15 years old, but in some cities it’s nearing the end of service life.  I hope our society isn’t as disposable as it seems.  PNC Park will be the future’s Wrigley and Fenway, timeless stadiums that everyone flocks to visit.  At least it should be with proper upkeep and solid stewardship.

Francisco Cervelli will be framing pitches and causing females to swoon for three more years in Pittsburgh.
Photo by Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

During lunchtime on Tuesday, the Pittsburgh Pirates announced that catcher Francisco Cervelli was signed to a 3 yr/$31M extension.  This was a move that we both forecast and advocated.  With this signing, the entire set of eight starting position players are now under team control for 2017.  Here’s the prices for each of them:

• C Francisco Cervelli — $9M
• 1B John Jaso — $4M
• 2B Josh Harrison — $7.75M
• SS Jordy Mercer — $3.5M (arb. estimate)
• 3B Jung-ho Kang — $2.75M
• LF Starling Marte — $5.33M
• CF Andrew McCutchen — $14.2M
• RF Gregory Polanco — $1.6M
• TOTAL — $48.13M

Prior to this extension, I was under the impression that the Pirates current contention window was going to start to close after the 2017 season.  After 2017, Francisco Liriano would be a free agent, Francisco Cervelli would have already been gone for a year, and the Pirates would be making the decision on whether or not to trade Andrew McCutchen prior to his final team option year of 2018.

One signing shouldn’t alter my thinking on things, but this signing is pointing me to two thoughts:

• The Pirates seem serious about fielding a strong contender in 2017
• The window may be pried open to 2018 while they retain McCutchen on his team option

With the imminent arrival of Tyler Glasnow and Jameson Taillon this season, the 2017 rotation is shaping up to be both potentially potent and economical.

• Gerrit Cole — $6.25M (arb. estimate)
• Francisco Liriano — $13.67M
• Tyler Glasnow — $0.5M
• Jameson Taillon — $0.5M
• TOTAL — $20.92M

If you add up the starting eight plus the top four pitchers, as shown above, you get $69.05M.  Assuming a $110M payroll, that leaves $41M of payroll flexibility to fill out the bench, bullpen, and fifth starter.  And when you factor in that some of those 13 remaining spots could be filled by players on minimum salaries (Josh Bell, Alen Hanson) or small salaries like Chris Stewart’s $1.4M, that leaves even more money to invest on key areas.  Some of the monies will potentially be allocated to arb-eligible players like Tony Watson, Juan Nicasio, and Jared Hughes, but there could still be a couple of mid-size splurges.

The free agent market this offseason is shaping up to be a desolate wasteland of available talent, but perhaps the Pirates may go the trade route with teams either looking to shed salaries or in the midst of rebuilding efforts.

With Cervelli’s signing in the books, the Pirates can now potentially control all the players shown above in 2018, with the exception of Francisco Liriano.  I still don’t believe the Pirates will be able or willing to retain McCutchen whenever he reaches free agency after 2018, but this move at least plants the tiniest of seeds that it is possible.  Very tiny.  I’m still being realistic to the financial aspects of such a long-term move and still believe that the window can be extended even further if McCutchen is traded for the right mix of both short and long-term assets.

But now the Pirates have locked up a catcher at below-market rates that should at least retain league-average offense and plus defensive chops, especially in the all-important pitch framing category.  Having a catcher that’s not a zero offensively at the plate is a huge bonus and helps lengthen the lineup, especially when that catcher can get on-base with the frequency that Cervelli possesses.

The Pirates only make a signing when it works for them in terms of years and cash outlay.  The years are why players like Russell Martin and JA Happ are now plying their trades north of the border.  Cervelli wanted to stay here and the Pirates agreed they wanted him here for the correct financial terms.

How the Pirates will build off of this move in the offseason, quite a ways from now of course, is what will reveal their belief in the team moving forward.  This move is a good sign.

Will Josh Bell be joining 2011 draft mate Gerrit Cole in Pittsburgh soon?

I prescribe to the old scouting maxim that a team should get one starter and one bench/bullpen guy out of each draft, in order to call it a successful draft.  Getting some talent out of each successive draft is important to keep the young, cost-controlled talent faucet flowing.  Now, getting two contributors to the Majors out of forty draft picks may sound easy (that’s only a 5% success rate!), but it’s incredibly difficult.

Firstly, not every player drafted gets signed by the team.  Out of the (now) 40 draft rounds, the Pirates may only sign 30 guys.  Some guys are drafted as flyers, to see if the team can tempt them to give up riches three years down the road for the opportunity to start playing professional ball now.  Secondly, others are signed with the intent to be purely organizational soldiers — players that occupy roster spots in the lower levels to fill rosters and provide some stability to a roster.  These guys are never really expected to advance past Double-A, with most shaking out of the system after just a year or two.  Most of the talent that the team is actively interested in is within the first 10 rounds of the draft, so now you’re really dealing with a 20% success rate.

We’re now one month out from the 2016 MLB Draft that will be held from June 9th-11th, so it’s fair to cast an eye back five years to the 2011 Draft.  It’s also said that it takes 4 to 5 years to truly evaluate a draft in whole, although I think some drafts are easier than others to know when the talent is not up to par, so let’s gaze upon a draft that I already consider a success that’s about to get even better.

The Pirates drafted first overall in 2011 and took a young flamethrowing pitcher out of UCLA named Gerrit Cole.  If the Pirates decided to kick their feet up and not draft anyone of note after Cole (like the Pirates seemingly did in the Dave Littlefield years after their 1st round picks), then this draft would be deemed a win by me.  Cole is an ace and those are a rare commodity in the game.  Don’t listen to people who ride the ebb and flows of every start and nitpick every facet of Cole’s inning-by-inning progression through a game — he’s an ace.  Cole is a horse that will consume 200+ innings, get better than a strikeout per inning, keep his ERA/FIP under 3.00, and (most tellingly for me) gets better as the game progress along.

Is Cole the best pitcher in the Majors?  No, he’s not, but that’s just as much a byproduct of the ridiculous pitching times that we live in more than anything.  Are there things he could do better, like holding runners on base, perhaps?  Sure.  No pitcher is a machine.  Except Arrieta.  He might be a machine.

But by the end of June, Cole may have some company in the Pirates’ rotation in the form of 2011 draft mate, 5th round pick Tyler Glasnow.  I wrote about why Glasnow won’t be up until at least mid-June (mark me down for June 11th in the office pool) and if you’re reading this article, you probably already know about Glasnow and his potential.

For me, Glasnow’s a #2 pitcher at his peak.  Cole is under control through 2019 and Glasnow is under control through 2022, so the Pirates will have their top two pitchers for at least three+ years together.  (Although not germane to this article about the 2011 draft, in 2017 the Pirates will also have Jameson Taillon in the rotation and the last year of Francisco Liriano.  Cole-Liriano-Glasnow-Taillon is a far different 1 through 4 than this year.)

Getting two top of the rotation pitchers (potentially) from one draft would be a bonanza.  But the cherry on top of the draft may also be arriving in Pittsburgh at some point this year in 2nd round pick, 1B Josh Bell.  I’ve not been the biggest Bell supporter in the past due to his lack of in-game power, but he’s forcing me to re-evaluate my opinion so far this year.  At Triple-A, Bell is off to a .290/.385/.450 start with 3 HR’s in his first 26 games.  He’s not threatening Joey Gallo for the minor league home run chase, but considering his single year high of homers is 13, this is a move in the right direction.

For an upcoming TPOP article, Steve, Michael, and I were coming up with some ceilings/floors/likely outcomes for various Pirates prospects.  For Bell, one of us tossed out a Will Clark ceiling and that one’s starting to grow on me.  Clark is in the Hall of Very Good, with great contact and moderate power for a 1B.  I think we would all take Clark’s career for Josh Bell.

So getting two stud pitchers and a starting 1B out of one draft?  That’s a bingo.  It would clearly be the most productive draft of Neal Huntington’s tenure, better than the foundational 2008 draft that produced Pedro Alvarez, Jordy Mercer, and Justin Wilson (who begat Francisco Cervelli), and far outpacing any of the others to date.

There are a few other players that could be the metaphorical sprinkles on top of the sundae in the form of Jason Creasy, Dan Gamache, and Clay Holmes, but none are stars and may just receive a cup of coffee (it at all).  If Glasnow and Bell can complement the work already being put forth by Cole, it really won’t matter.  And as a postscript, remember when I mentioned up-article about taking flyers on players?  The Pirates did that with a high school shortstop in the 20th round named Trea Turner.  The same stud prospect that will be up with the Nationals this year and a soon-to-be-fixture in their lineup at SS.  Now that would have been an epic draft.

Once mid-June gets here, Tyler Glasnow will be handing the ball to Clint Hurdle
Photo by Kelly Wilkinson/Indy Star

After every poor or mediocre start by a Pirates starting pitcher, Bucco Nation casts a lonely eye towards Indianapolis and wonders why Tyler Glasnow is not up in Pittsburgh.  There are two reasons for it and I would roughly break it down by percentages in this fashion — development (30%) and financial (70%).  With regards to his development, the 6′-8″ Glasnow has a blazing mid-90’s fastball and killer curve, but is still in need of refining his changeup.  That comes straight from the cake cruncher of GM Neal Huntington.  There are some who would believe that Huntington is saying that purely as cover for the other reason — financial.

The financial reason is real, but not really talked about publicly by baseball executives.  Teams value years of control and financial certainty with their top prospects.  Here’s a short primer on service time requirements:

• A player needs 172 days of service to be granted a year of service
• A baseball season usually has 182-185 days, depending on when the season starts/ends
• The 2016 baseball season has 183 days of service (April 3 to October 2)
• Every team has 6 full years of control over a player until he is eligible for free agency
• So this means that if a team holds a player in the minors for the first 15 days (or so) at the start of the season, they can essentially get almost 7 calendar seasons of control for the price of 6.  This is what the Cubs did with Kris Bryant last year, just as one example (of many) in baseball.
• A player gets paid the league minimum his first 3 seasons (actually $507,000, but $500,000 for ease of discussion) and then is eligible for arbitration for three years after that.
• However, if a player is in a certain tier of players known as Super Two, he gets two years of league minimum and then four years of arbitration, resulting in more money expended by the team.

WHAT IS SUPER TWO, ANYWAY?

Super Two guidelines are somewhat murky, but the quick and dirty explanation is that when players of the same service class are preparing to enter their 3rd seasons, the ones with the highest 22% of service time are granted the fourth year of arbitration.  Typically, the rule of thumb is 2 full years of time and 130 days of another season.  The agency CAA has been exceptionally accurate in calculating what the upcoming offseason’s Super Two cutoff will be.  Here’s the days of service for the past seven years, written in the common decimal format of years.days:

• 2015: 2.140
• 2014: 2.133
• 2013: 2.122
• 2012: 2.140
• 2011: 2.146
• 2010: 2.122
• 2009: 2.139

As you can see, it has been as low as just 122 days of time twice in the past seven years.  With the season starting on April 3rd this year, June 1 would represent 58 days into the season or 125 days remaining.  Knowing the risk-averse nature of the Pirates’ front office, they aren’t going to want to cut it close, so I’m going to assume they try and get it down to 115 days this year and that’s around June 11th.  Looking at the Pirates’ schedule, June 11th is at home against the Cardinals.  Juan Nicasio or Jeff Locke are viewed as the two most likely candidates to be shuffled out in favor of Glasnow.

THE FINANCIAL RAMIFICATIONS OF SUPER TWO

Earlier this year, we calculated the arbitration percentages for players as they move through both the regular three years of arbitration and then the players in the abnormal Super Two arbitration category.  The percentages for the standard three years of arbitration, as a function of the player’s eventual free agent market value, were 25%/40%/60%.  For the Super Two players, it was 20%/33%/50%/70%.

Everyone is presuming and hoping that Tyler Glasnow will be a front-of-the-rotation type of pitcher.  The term “ace” gets tossed around too loosely for my liking, as I believe that there are just a very limited number of true aces at any one time in baseball, but for me he’s an easy #2 pitcher.  I personally think his command will hold him back from his ultimate ceiling of a #1, so that’s why I put him in the still extremely valuable tier of a #2.  The going price for a solid #2 pitcher is around $22M-$25M a year these days.  Let’s assume that $25M would be Glasnow’s value when he would potentially hit the free agent market.

If Glasnow goes through the standard arbitration cycle, these would be the salaries expended by the Pirates (2016 dollars):

• 2017 — $500,000
• 2018 — $500,000
• 2019 — $500,000
• 2020 — $6.25M (25% of $25M)
• 2021 — $10M (40% of $25M)
• 2022 — $15M (60% of $25M)

Total outlay by the Pirates is $32.75M

Now let’s look at it under the Super Two scenario (2016 dollars):

• 2017 — $500,000
• 2018 — $500,000
• 2019 — $5M (20% of $25M)
• 2020 — $8.33M (33% of $25M)
• 2021 — $12.5M (50% of $25M)
• 2022 — $17.5M (70% of $25M)

Total outlay by the Pirates is $44.33M

That’s a difference of $11.58M, which is a real amount of money, but also one that is spread out into a 6 year timeline in the future.  If you line them up side-by-side, Glasnow’s first two years are obviously the same.  His final three years are each approximately $2.5M higher, but the real kicker is in 2019 when there is a $4.5M difference in salary.  I’m not going to sneeze at $2.5M, as that’s a serviceable bullpen arm or bench player, but the $4.5M in 2019 is decent in size.

Whether this is playing into their decision making or not, 2019 is also Gerrit Cole’s final year of arbitration (and team control).  If you assume that Cole will be making the same (or probably even more) in arbitration as Glasnow, the Pirates may not want to have Cole’s huge arbitration salary in the first year of a potential $5M bill for Glasnow’s first year of Super Two.  Especially if all they have to do is wait a few extra days.

WAITING IS THE HARDEST PART

It probably seems as if I’m a Jeff Locke defender, considering that I’ve written two separate articles about him in the past six months explaining why his presence in the rotation is not an affront to human decency, as some would paint him.  But in actuality, I’m just realistic about Locke.  I know and accept that he’s a #5 starter, a #4 on a good day if you squint.  I also know that Glasnow, on pure stuff and potential, is a vast upgrade on Locke.  But there it is…behold that one word — “potential”.

Tyler Glasnow in 2016 has pitched 21 innings in AAA and surrendered just 15 hits.  He’s struck out 30 and walked only 7.  His entire minor league career line is nuts — 404 IP, 243 H, 185 BB, 531 K’s.  He could be special.  But there’s no absolute guarantee that he’ll come up and start dominating like in the minors.  All of the fans and media crying out for him to save the Pirates rotation can not say with absolute 100% certainty that he won’t struggle with Major League hitters his first few times out.  Or when they adjust to what he is doing at the outset of his tenure.

For many fans and the media, there is this ingrained hysteria this year that if the Pirates don’t win the NL Central, they’re screwed.  The Pirates have had the grave misfortune of facing two pitchers in the Wild Card game that were simply not going to lose to anyone those nights in Madison Bumgarner and Jake Arrieta.  The Royals and Giants both advanced from the Wild Card to make the World Series in 2014.  The Pirates did beat Johnny Cueto in 2013, but that was…like…3 long years ago and is ancient history at this point.

So as a result of this hysteria, many fans and media are tracking the daily wins/losses of the Cubs before we even flip the calendar to May.  Quite simply, there’s no need to even look at the standings of other teams until June 1, at the earliest, and more realistically July 1st.  Teams jump out to hot starts every single year; no team is realistically going to play .700 win percentage baseball all year and finish with 112 wins.  Teams get injuries, players cool down and come back to earth.  Other teams heat up.

Tyler Glasnow will be up in Pittsburgh in early June and he’ll most likely be here to stay.  His absence from the rotation may only cost the Pirates one win in the year 2016, but it will pay greater dividends for his performance and the payroll of the Pirates down the line.

Schematic showing the augmentations that Grindhouse is developing
From Grindhouse Wetware.com

We all want to stand out, be that special and unique snowflake.  For some it is how we dress.  For some it is we decorate ourselves with tattoos or body piercing.  Maybe it is a speech affectation.  Or a personality trait.

But there is a small subset of our population that wants to stand apart from other humans by becoming more than just a human.  This sector, that is growing and gaining in acceptance every day, want to become technology-augmented humans, commonly known as cyborgs.

Much to my initial surprise, one of the leading groups of cyborgism is located right here in Pittsburgh, a biotechnological collective known as Grindhouse Wetware.  The two most visible members of the group are the 36-year old Tim Cannon and 26-year old Ryan O’Shea.

Cannon, whose Twitter handle is the aptly-named @TimTheCyborg, is a self-described “grinder”.  When I ask him to explain the term he says it’s “being a DIY (do-it-yourself) practical transhumanist using skills and resources to very slowly, incrementally implement a cyborg future, but in a less pie- in-the-sky way.  Instead of creating the perfect graphics driver, it’s trying to design Tetris.”

It’s quite a commitment to decide to physically implant a foreign object inside your body, by choice and not for a medical reason, so the logical first question is can’t humans accomplish the same thing with wearable tech that’s advancing on the market?  “We get this all the time,” says a weary-toned Cannon.  “Eventually implants are going to be desirable.  We feel it’s an unnecessary step to wait for wearables to come to fruition.  We have the technology now, so why even wait?”

“I think a better question is ‘why wearables’?” adds O’Shea.  “I’ve forgotten my cell phone. I’ve forgotten my keys, my wallet, my fitness trackers.  These things can be lost or stolen. You know what I’ve never forgotten or lost? Things that are inside of me.”

Cannon’s path to becoming one of the leading voices in the world on cyborgism, frequently speaking and attending international conference on cyborgism and transhumanism, was an asymmetrical one.  He’s a high school dropout that got his GED and then eventually went to a two year diploma mill that gave him a certificate that said “hey, this guy can program.” So that’s what he did for 10 years until he helped formed Grindhouse Wetware in 2011 with some like-minded individuals.  Grindhouse is primarily a research and development think tank, but Cannon envisions a time “where we spawn several commercial companies to serve the general public commercially with implants.”

Grindhouse Wetware currently has four products in development that can viewed on their site.  One of them is the Northstar, a subdermal star implant that lights up with the use of magnets, that will be implanted into Cannon in the very near future.  If you are in possession of a strong constitution, here is a video that contains footage of the original test embedments in some Grindhouse team members.

A love of science fiction coupled with a love of technical challenges drew Cannon to cyborgism originally.  He currently has embedded in his body three magnets, two RFID chips, and at the end of April the Northstar prototype.  He’s only had one removed, but that was a planned removal after 90 days, as they were just testing the concept.  He admitted that he was scared during the first implant, but he feels that “at the end of the day this is the direction that humanity has to head, in order to survive in the universe over a long enough timeline.”

Cannon has two small children.  What do they think of his desire to be a meld of man and machine?  “I tell them our body is what we were naturally put in, but I want to become something more to see if I can help the world evolve into something better. The best way to learn from mistakes may be through technology.”

The conversation turned existential when we started to discuss the boundary line (or lack thereof) for when a man is no longer a man, but rather a machine.  In O’Shea’s words, “Well, that’s hard to answer, but we can certainly say what DOESN’T make us human. It’s not our fleshy arms and legs. There are amputees, and they are still human. It’s not sight, hearing, taste, or touch. People without one or more of these senses are certainly still human. How much can you take away and still have a human? Well, it seems that what makes us human is our thoughts, memories, opinions, personality, etc. As far as we know, this is all stored in our brains. The legal system seems to agree with this definition, as there can be a ‘brain dead’ person on life support that is considered legally dead despite the fact that their body is still ‘alive’. Is seems that both life and death are really undefined terms and we’re not exactly what either of them mean.”

Hopefully these two fine gentlemen don’t create a version of Skynet, like from the Terminator movies, and usher in our robot/cyborg overlords.  But both Cannon and O’Shea are embracing a cyborg future.  For Cannon, the endgame is “to be 100% non-biological. I would want to spend time off planet, searching out answers for questions we want answered. Humans want to be peaceful explorers. We may need to abandon our biology and travel the stars to find what we want.”  O’Shea is even more straightforward about our cyborg natures by saying that, “many academics and philosophers would already say we are cyborgs, that our smartphones are extensions of our intelligence and our technology is an extension of ourselves. This can be seen as the Extended Mind. We might as well already be cyborgs. Even judging from perhaps the more common definition of that term – a human/machine combination – many people already meet that definition. Many modern humans have pace makers, cochlear implants, prosthetic limbs, joint replacements, artificial organs, and more. Some would even elect to have these devices for traditionally non-medical reasons.”

Cannon shows no hesitation when discussing how he thinks that humans can evolve by melding with machine.  “There will be practical augments in next couple of years and over the next 20 years it will progress rapidly. In 2050 we will reach a tipping point. figure out what will do with 1000 IQ minds, being powered by the sun, humans designed to live 1000 years, and no need for calories anymore.”

But what about those who do not want to become part-man/part-machine?  Whether it is for moral, ethical, or religious reasons, there will be a faction of the populace that would have no interest in this.  Would there develop a class divide between cyborgs and natural humans?  Cannon doesn’t believe so. “A cyborg future is inevitable, but there will be people will want to stay natural. Divides will be over needs. Humans need wheat, calories, sugar, salt, fat. Plants have vastly different needs than humans. Humans will have different needs than cyborgs and won’t compete for same needs.”  O’Shea drew the interesting comparison between modern humans and sects of us that don’t use technology today.  “Currently there are communities of Amish people who don’t use modern technology. I certainly wouldn’t view these people as lesser beings. Likewise, I’m sure there will be humans that choose not to augment themselves and live and die as biological humans. They should be able to do this, and I certainly don’t think they should be looked down upon for this.”

As O’Shea said, “Grindhouse is taking the first steps towards increasing our consciousness, overcoming limitations, and replacing biology with technology. We feel this is the natural course of human evolution.”

The Pens may have found a diamond in the rough with Conor Sheary
Photo by Charles LeClaire/USA Today Sports

When Conor Sheary joined the Pittsburgh Penguins organization (on an American Hockey League deal with an Amateur Try-out Agreement) out of the University of Massachusetts-Amherst, no one batted and eyelash. The team captain for the Minutemen in their 2013-2014 season, Sheary led his team in points and assists that year.  He also made the Florida Classic’s All-Tournament team in 2011 as a sophomore and played his high school hockey for Cushing Academy.

After a stellar year in the AHL, where Sheary tallied 45 points in 58 games to lead the Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins offensively, the organization re-signed him. This time his deal, inked on July 1, 2015, was for two years and two-ways. That meant the slight 5’-8” American forward out of Melrose, Massachusetts would be available to the NHL club in 2015-2016.

He started his NHL career slowly, bouncing up and down between the Pittsburgh and Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins early in the season. When he first joined the squad he also showed a habit for deference. When he was on the ice with one of the team’s elite players, like Sidney Crosby or Evgeni Malkin, he’d pass everything to them. Partially due to this, Sheary bounced around until January when he was promoted full-time. During the Penguins’ monster second half, he became a fixture. He wasn’t a call-up anymore, he was here for the rest of the Penguins’ season in Pittsburgh.

In this role he played on a rolling bottom-six that added the perfect counter punch to the star studded top-half of the line-up. But something was changing. Sheary was setting himself apart. He was more comfortable and settled. Then before anyone realized it, he was playing on a line with a double-shifting Sidney Crosby and showing promise. While the NHL at large was fawning over Shayne Gostisbehere and Artemiy Panarin, in Pittsburgh we were all zeroed in on Conor Sheary (and Bryan Rust).

In the middle of the Penguins first-round series with the New York Rangers, Conor Sheary got his playoffs moment. In game three, he ascended to the team’s top-line. He was the guy with Sidney Crosby and Patric Hornqvist. He didn’t just play, though, no he thrived. Whether it’s his speed, his smarts, or just the fact that he’s finally settled in it doesn’t matter (though I’m pretty sure it’s his hockey IQ, that’s what really makes or breaks Crosby linemates). What does matter is that the 5’-8” undrafted kid is following in the footsteps of some of Sidney Crosby’s most prolific linemates, Pascal Dupuis and Chris Kunitz (coincidentally, both of whom were also undrafted).

Conor Sheary scored in both games four and five of the Penguins series with the Rangers. One off of a beautiful pass by Crosby. Showing, once again, that he belongs with the captain.

But what does this mean for the Penguins’ organization? What does the success of organizationally grown talent overall mean? Well it means they’ve just done one of the most difficult things in hockey completely on the fly. Rebuild.

Yes, that’s right the Penguins just rebuilt their team without anyone really noticing. Because not all rebuilds look the same. Some involve Maple Leafs and Sabres-style stripping of everything. Some, when you have stars like the Penguins do, just involve a series of decisions to find the right supporting cast and coaching staff. Only seven of the the players who skated for Pittsburgh in their final game of the 2015 playoffs were in the First Round’s deciding game 5.

Remember how the Blackhawks built their Cup winning teams? Relying on young guys on cheap deals while trading out older, favorably viewed semi-stars on more expensive deals to places looking for cup-winning veterans to help guide their young. Remember how the Lightning made the Cup Final last spring? Their young triplets line, that they depended on to bolster Steven Stamkos. This season alone, Rutherford has dropped the anchor that is Rob Scuderi’s contract, while Martin was allowed to walk in favor of the cheaper Dumoulin, and the Penguins took on players with lower cap hits and control moving forward (Daley, Hagelin).

Sheary is symbolic of every decision that this Penguins regime has made right.

First, the team signed him to one, then another, low-risk deal. His current deal, the two year two-way pact signed last July 1, carries a cap hit of just $667,500. These low-risk, shorter term, deals are perfect. Because when a low-risk deal works like it has for Sheary and Matt Cullen, the team gets amazingly cost-effective secondary scoring and when it doesn’t like last year’s pacts with Downie and Lapierre, they’re short-term deals that can easily be walked away from.

Getting the production out of Sheary for such a low cost is like having a free player on the roster.  This will enable the Penguins to re-allocate tightly constricted salary cap dollars to another position of need in the offseason, as they have one less position to fill this summer.

Sheary, right now, is just what Sidney Crosby needs. Someone fast who will play the game at Crosby’s preferred tempo but who also plays hard-nosed and can win puck battles with his brain as well as his speed. Kunitz has lost some of this speed as he’s aged, while Sheary is still capable of zipping around like he’s wearing a jetpack. Ultimately, that’s the beauty of his ascension. He’s come so far so quick because he was already used to working hard (undrafted, not signed to an NHL deal). Now he’s just doing it alongside the world’s best hockey player.

Artistic Rendering from McCaffery Interests Inc. showing the potential renovation of the Strip District Produce Terminal

The City of Pittsburgh is moving forward with a revised development plan from Chicago-based McCaffery Interests Inc. to renovate the Produce Terminal along Smallman Street in the Strip District.  The total cost of the project is estimated to be $70M, as per Dan McCaffery of McCaffery Interests.  Of that total, nearly $20M is pencilled in as coming from either foundation grants or public subsidies.

The plan itself is bold in nature.  It would be a “food-centric” plan that seeks to harmonize itself with the existing Strip District, which represents the stomach of Pittsburgh.  There would a public market and food-based stores, complemented by 20 live-work apartments, general office space, and restaurants.  The fear that some people have and have already raised is that this renovation will make the Produce Terminal too new and shiny, a stark contrast to the gritty nature of the industrial warehouse look of the Strip District.  I remember when I first started visiting the Strip as a kid, it was dirty.  Back then, you weren’t quite sure if the food you were getting was safely prepared or safe to eat, but that was all part of the adventure.  It’s been greatly cleaned up today, but it is still a no-frills adventure to get the raw food goods to prepare not only your personal meals, but the meals for many of the restaurants throughout the City of Pittsburgh.

The artistic rendering shown above comes from McCaffery Interests’ vision for the property.  There shouldn’t be a whole lot of apprehension to McCaffery Interests, as they were the developer responsible for the renovation of the Cork Factory and the construction of the adjacent Lot 24, both right up the street from the proposed Produce Terminal project.  The Cork Factory has maintained an adequate amount of grit, coupled with a heaping dose of renovation.

The Produce Terminal rendering has a promenade feel to it, with an encouragement towards pedestrian traffic to walk along Smallman Street and then buzz in and out of shops on the elevated dock portion of the project.  This would essentially create a narrowing of Smallman Street, a typical traffic calming measure that is implemented in other settings to slow down traffic, which would be a positive development.  As currently situated, Smallman is too wide, which leads to people passing cars all the time without regard to pedestrians.  On the other hand, this eliminates a huge amount of on-street parking that currently exists.  This plan proposed by McCaffery did not explicitly mention parking, but some type of low-rise parking garage would have to be built between the Produce Terminal and the river to compensate for this loss.

Setting aside the nature of the project and whether or not they can make it shabby chic to blend in with Penn Avenue/Smallman Street, what I’m concerned about is the bridge funding that will be sought out to pay for this project.  I hope that the City does not go for a Tax Increment Financing (TIF) plan to make up the shortfall of funding.  Quite simply, TIF’s are scams that benefit only the developers and leave the host municipalities holding the bag.  The basic premise behind a TIF is that the developer receives a certain amount of money interest-free to complete their project.  The host municipality is paid back under the premise that there will be a significant incremental increase in tax revenue generated from the project than if the project never moved forward.  But as can be shown with Pittsburgh Mills out in Frazier Township and their current $1.3M shortfall, these estimates of revenues are typically wildly overestimated and the revenue falls short to the municipality.

What I would like to propose is some sort of diversion from the revenues of the state’s casinos for this project.  The City of Pittsburgh receives a healthy cut of tax revenue from the roughly $280M that Rivers Casino generates each year, but they also receive a share of the total amount from the statewide pool of casino revenues, as well.  These monies are already being used to renovate and revitalize parts of the City.  Additional monies are dedicated to projects in non-City of Pittsburgh municipalities through the Community Infrastructure Tourism Fund (CITF) and Gaming Economic Development Fund (GEDF) to improve infrastructure and support programs.  I would like to see a dedicated revenue stream of perhaps $666,666 per year for 30 years (with a low interest increase of 1-2%/year) set aside from the gaming industry to support this program, rather than a TIF which the City would never see the full return on anyway.  This way the monies are not being diverted from existing earmarked City funds and are small enough that the State Department of Revenue could bleed it off without disrupting over funding streams like the CITF/GEDF.

Polanco’s plate discipline has gone through the roof at the early outset of this season.  Although you hear “small sample size” beaten to death this time of year, plate discipline is one of the quickest metrics to stabilize, typically around 100 plate appearances.  After this weekend’s slate of games, Polanco is over halfway there.  No, he will not have a walk rate of 23% for the whole year, but let’s look at a few graphical charts to see what’s behind his dramatic improvement from his 8.6% BB rate last year.

First up is Polanco’s whiff chart (courtesy of Brooks Baseball’s page on Polanco) for his 2014 and 2015 plate appearances:

Keep in mind that this is from the catcher’s point of view, so Polanco would be standing on the right side of this box.  As you can see, his whiff rate was in double digits for anything low in the zone AND high in the zone, a pretty dangerous combination to overcome as a hitter.  He was guessing wrong and chasing a lot of bad pitches.

Now let’s look at the whiff chart for the outset of the 2016 season:

In the same eight zones that plagued him in his first two seasons, Polanco has started to slowly close the gaps, especially on the pitches up high and the ones low (both in the zone and out of the zone).  You can also see that if a pitch is in the strike zone, Polanco is making some sort of contact so far this year, as he only has two whiffs in the zone to date.

So what’s the secret here?  Is it just maturation?  Is it that his development path is taking the next leap, as we forecast last year?  Possibly, but Polanco is simply being pitched differently right now.  He has adjusted to the league and now we’ll see how long it takes the league to adjust to him.  For the most part, advance scouts are working off last year’s data, so the “pitch him low or high in the zone” reports are the ones being used.  Take a look at his career plate discipline numbers from Fangraphs:

There’s a lot to parse through, but let me direct your eye to the second-to-last column of Zone%.  These are the percentage of pitches that are in the strike zone during Polanco’s at-bats.  That percentage is comically low, indicating that the league is basically throwing him slop and daring him to lay off of it, which he has so far, as evidenced by his 26.9% O-Swing% (outside the zone).  But when a pitch is in the zone, his Z-Contact% (zone contact) is through the roof at 91.2%.  To contrast, here’s the same plate discipline chart for Andrew McCutchen:

The charts for McCutchen and Polanco show that so far Polanco is a better contact hitter than McCutchen.  McCutchen’s career Z-Contact% is three percentage points less than Polanco and hasn’t crested 90% since his 2010 season.  Additionally, on pitches out of the zone, McCutchen’s contact rate of 58.4% is far lower than Polanco’s 65.5%.  The difference being that McCutchen has developed his power more fully, so when he makes contact (wherever that may be), he punishes it for more extra bases than Polanco heretofore.

Polanco is not going to have a BB rate of 23% and he’s not going to have a strikeout rate of just 13%.  Pitchers will adjust and he will regress to the mean in both categories, but it’s not inconceivable to project him to have a walk rate of 12.5% and a strikeout rate of around 15-16% when the season is over.  His adjustments seem to be real and well-defined.