Purely Positive Pittsburgh Pirates Piece
With so much negative in the world, let’s focus on the positives in Pirateland. Here’s a couple on my radar.
2 WAR starting pitchers
When I started writing this article I pulled up the Fangraphs data on our Pittsburgh Pirates pitchers and, just like I expected, the starting five have pretty decent numbers. It looks like we’ll have ALL five members of our starting rotation have 2.0 WAR seasons.
You ask when is the last time we had five starting pitchers amass 2.0 WAR each? I’ll give you a hint Van Halen released an album that year: 1984!
| Name | W | L | SV | G | GS | IP | WAR | WAR per IP (x100) | |
| 1984 | |||||||||
| 1 | Rick Rhoden | 14 | 9 | 0 | 33 | 33 | 238.1 | 4.3 | 1.81 |
| 2 | John Candelaria | 12 | 11 | 2 | 33 | 28 | 185.1 | 3.3 | 1.78 |
| 3 | Larry McWilliams | 12 | 11 | 1 | 34 | 32 | 227.1 | 2.9 | 1.28 |
| 4 | Jose DeLeon | 7 | 13 | 0 | 30 | 28 | 192.1 | 2.9 | 1.51 |
| 5 | John Tudor | 12 | 11 | 0 | 32 | 32 | 212.0 | 2.5 | 1.18 |
| 6 | Don Robinson | 5 | 6 | 10 | 51 | 1 | 122.0 | 2.0 | 1.64 |
| 7 | Rod Scurry | 5 | 6 | 4 | 43 | 0 | 46.1 | 1.1 | 2.39 |
| 2017 | |||||||||
| 1 | Gerrit Cole | 11 | 8 | 0 | 27 | 27 | 167.0 | 2.3 | 1.38 |
| 2 | Jameson Taillon | 7 | 5 | 0 | 20 | 20 | 106.0 | 2.2 | 2.08 |
| 3 | Chad Kuhl | 6 | 9 | 0 | 26 | 26 | 129.1 | 1.8 | 1.39 |
| 4 | Felipe Rivero | 4 | 2 | 16 | 62 | 0 | 64.2 | 1.8 | 2.80 |
| 5 | Ivan Nova | 11 | 11 | 0 | 26 | 26 | 165.2 | 1.7 | 1.03 |
| 6 | Trevor Williams | 5 | 6 | 0 | 26 | 20 | 122.2 | 1.7 | 1.39 |
| 7 | Juan Nicasio | 2 | 5 | 2 | 65 | 0 | 60.0 | 1.1 | 1.83 |
First, I must add that there were three seasons since 1984 that Pirates had ZERO starting pitchers with 2.0 WAR: 1994, 2010, and 2011. Having all five pitchers produce years like this is very good because of the trickle down affect in the organization. There are very few pitchers that are their best selves at 25. Many have their best seasons in their late 20s. Having five starting pitchers do this well as a group allows the whole system to grow a year and will only prove dividends in a couple years.
I also included WAR per IP to give you a level of the pitchers’ value relative to each other. Taillon is the class of the group, then a gap to Trevor Williams. Rick Rhoden and the Candyman would have slotted nicely into our rotation and Scurry could have helped Nicasio set up “Flip” Rivero.
New CBA gives us an advantage
One of the holes we never dipped into over the last few years was the “Free Agents that would lose us a draft pick”. They used to be Type A or Type B free agents, or ones that were extended a qualifying offer and rejected it, but not if you have a protected pick, etc.
Now they’ve made it pretty simple: if you receive revenue sharing dollars you lose a 3rd round draft pick instead of a first round pick for signing a Qualifying Offer rejecting free agent. That’s a really big change.
Over the last few years there were free agents the Pirates probably wanted to sign BUT it would have costed the Pirates these guys:
| Year | Overall pick | Name | Position | MLB.com Pirates prospect rating |
| 2017 | 12 | Shane Baz | RHP | 3 |
| 2016 | 22 | Will Craig | 3B | 8 |
| 2015 | 19 | Kevin Newman | SS | 5 |
| 2015 | 32 | Ke’Bryan Hayes | 3B | 6 |
| 2014 | 24 | Cole Tucker | SS | 4 |
Instead of these guys:
| Year | Overall pick | Name | Position | MLB.com Pirates prospect rating |
| 2017 | 88 | Dylan Busby | 3B | NR |
| 2016 | 105 | Stephen Alemais | SS | 22 |
| 2015 | 96 | Casey Hughston | LF | NR |
| 2014 | 100 | Jordan Luplow | RF | 21 |
You can see the quality you give up in the first round versus the third round. There might not be as many good free agents that hit the market but the cost in prospects is MUCH lower than it used to be for the lower revenue teams.
Good positional players on the cusp
Two young position players are doing well in AAA this year. No, it isn’t Austin Meadows and Kevin Newman. It’s Jordan Luplow and Max Moroff. Newman is doing fine after the promotion from AA and Meadows will be fine once he gets healthy, but Moroff and Luplow are the real story. Both guys are young for their draft class and the age difference is finally playing out. Instead of being good with a bunch of players a year or two older, they’ve reached the top minor league level and have broken out.
| Name | Team | Age | PA | wRC+ |
| Jake Cave | Yankees (AAA) | 24 | 270 | 168 |
| Ronald Acuna | Braves (AAA) | 19 | 206 | 167 |
| Rhys Hoskins | Phillies (AAA) | 24 | 475 | 167 |
| Yandy Diaz | Indians (AAA) | 25 | 374 | 163 |
| Mitch Garver | Twins (AAA) | 26 | 372 | 159 |
| Jordan Luplow | Pirates (AAA) | 23 | 182 | 156 |
| Ji-Man Choi | Yankees (AAA) | 26 | 316 | 155 |
| Max Moroff | Pirates (AAA) | 24 | 228 | 153 |
While we’re talking about Pittsburgh Pirates minor league position players, it’s worth mentioning some others that have caught the statisticians eye. Carson Cistulli, Fangraphs editor and researcher, is known to analyze prospects that are off the radar. He’s recently spent time looking at the Pirates’ infield prospects and came up with a guess on their career WAR levels. I must state that Cistulli knows what a 6 WAR or 12 WAR player means and isn’t just pulling numbers out of the air. I’ve listed his guesses below and gave you a Pirate example with a similar career WAR number:
| Name | Current Level | 2017 Age | Cistulli WAR guess | Pirate WAR comp |
| Cole Tucker | AA | 20 | 15 | Neil Walker, Jason Bay |
| Kevin Newman | AAA | 23 | 12 | Jack Wilson, Freddy Sanchez |
| Kevin Kramer | AA | 23 | 12 | Jeff King, Josh Harrison |
| Pablo Reyes | AA | 23 | 6 | Kevin Young |
If these guys combine for 45 WAR we are sitting pretty.
