Francisco Cervelli will be framing pitches and causing females to swoon for three more years in Pittsburgh.
Photo by Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

During lunchtime on Tuesday, the Pittsburgh Pirates announced that catcher Francisco Cervelli was signed to a 3 yr/$31M extension.  This was a move that we both forecast and advocated.  With this signing, the entire set of eight starting position players are now under team control for 2017.  Here’s the prices for each of them:

• C Francisco Cervelli — $9M
• 1B John Jaso — $4M
• 2B Josh Harrison — $7.75M
• SS Jordy Mercer — $3.5M (arb. estimate)
• 3B Jung-ho Kang — $2.75M
• LF Starling Marte — $5.33M
• CF Andrew McCutchen — $14.2M
• RF Gregory Polanco — $1.6M
• TOTAL — $48.13M

Prior to this extension, I was under the impression that the Pirates current contention window was going to start to close after the 2017 season.  After 2017, Francisco Liriano would be a free agent, Francisco Cervelli would have already been gone for a year, and the Pirates would be making the decision on whether or not to trade Andrew McCutchen prior to his final team option year of 2018.

One signing shouldn’t alter my thinking on things, but this signing is pointing me to two thoughts:

• The Pirates seem serious about fielding a strong contender in 2017
• The window may be pried open to 2018 while they retain McCutchen on his team option

With the imminent arrival of Tyler Glasnow and Jameson Taillon this season, the 2017 rotation is shaping up to be both potentially potent and economical.

• Gerrit Cole — $6.25M (arb. estimate)
• Francisco Liriano — $13.67M
• Tyler Glasnow — $0.5M
• Jameson Taillon — $0.5M
• TOTAL — $20.92M

If you add up the starting eight plus the top four pitchers, as shown above, you get $69.05M.  Assuming a $110M payroll, that leaves $41M of payroll flexibility to fill out the bench, bullpen, and fifth starter.  And when you factor in that some of those 13 remaining spots could be filled by players on minimum salaries (Josh Bell, Alen Hanson) or small salaries like Chris Stewart’s $1.4M, that leaves even more money to invest on key areas.  Some of the monies will potentially be allocated to arb-eligible players like Tony Watson, Juan Nicasio, and Jared Hughes, but there could still be a couple of mid-size splurges.

The free agent market this offseason is shaping up to be a desolate wasteland of available talent, but perhaps the Pirates may go the trade route with teams either looking to shed salaries or in the midst of rebuilding efforts.

With Cervelli’s signing in the books, the Pirates can now potentially control all the players shown above in 2018, with the exception of Francisco Liriano.  I still don’t believe the Pirates will be able or willing to retain McCutchen whenever he reaches free agency after 2018, but this move at least plants the tiniest of seeds that it is possible.  Very tiny.  I’m still being realistic to the financial aspects of such a long-term move and still believe that the window can be extended even further if McCutchen is traded for the right mix of both short and long-term assets.

But now the Pirates have locked up a catcher at below-market rates that should at least retain league-average offense and plus defensive chops, especially in the all-important pitch framing category.  Having a catcher that’s not a zero offensively at the plate is a huge bonus and helps lengthen the lineup, especially when that catcher can get on-base with the frequency that Cervelli possesses.

The Pirates only make a signing when it works for them in terms of years and cash outlay.  The years are why players like Russell Martin and JA Happ are now plying their trades north of the border.  Cervelli wanted to stay here and the Pirates agreed they wanted him here for the correct financial terms.

How the Pirates will build off of this move in the offseason, quite a ways from now of course, is what will reveal their belief in the team moving forward.  This move is a good sign.

I included the Grizzlies after watching The Revenant last night

Ironically, as I write this I’m preparing to go to a AAA game.  No, it isn’t the Indianapolis Indians, as I’ll actually be watching the Charlotte Knights take on the Durham Bulls.

As I skim through the rosters for both teams I recognize some names.  Blake Snell of the Bulls and Tim Anderson and Matt Davidson of the Knights are very good prospects, but I’m also seeing Chris Volstad, Travis Ishikawa and Jaff Decker.

As Alabama said in there 1994 song, “Our ball club is minor league but at least it’s AAA”:

While there is some good talent for both teams, there are only maybe 2-3 legit prospects for both the Bulls (Rays) and the Knights (White Sox).  This is nothing like the Pirates AAA squad at Indy.    I’ve mentioned subtly in my articles this year, but my boss KC (I guess we’re the Sunshine Band?) told me to try my best to inform the TPOP readership of how good the Pirates AAA squad currently stands.  Well here goes:

First, coming up with comps that TPOP and Pirate fans will know is a little tricky.   Also, HT to the rest of the Sunshine Band for helping me tighten up this list.  I organized the list so that it could read like a starting lineup, partial rotation and partial bullpen.  It’s just coincidence that our eight could be put into a lineup… and a credit due to the position flexibility of the players.

The Pseudo Prospects:

Gift Ngoepe can’t hit RH pitchers worth a darn, but his glove is amazing, he hits LHP well and he has good pop and speed for a SS.

Dan Gamache hits LH, can play all infield positions and has a good amount of patience at the plate.   He might not quite hit enough, but he could reach that Rob Mackowiak ceiling.

Boy is Willy Garcia huge but he can still stay play a decent CF and has a cannon for an arm.   Also, he has great splits against LHP and should be able to one arm homers the opposite way at PNC.   His ceiling of Jose Guillen is a pipe dream and his most likely of Craig Wilson is totally an offensive comparison.

The C+ Prospects:

Adam Frazier’s position flexibility is what will get him called up; that and his ability to avoid striking out (lifetime K% of 11.5%).  Frazier also has the “correct” platoon split, as he hits better against RHP than LHP ( .331/.390/.424 in 331 ABs against RHP last year).   Cross your fingers and hope for Ben Zobrist or Mark Ellis.

My son’s name is Max Anthony and he’s a wildcard.  Max Anthony Moroff is a wild card as well.  Moroff has one less elite minor league season than Frazier, but he’s two years younger at the same level.  He looks like a good fit at 2B where I watched him display plus range in Altoona last year.  He’s scuffling a little at AAA this year but he’s not needed for a while.  By June of ’17 he could be called up to infuse some life into the offense like….

…Alen Hanson is doing as we speak.   Hanson is heading to Pittsburgh to fill in for Starling Marte while he’s on paternity leave.  Hanson has been on prospect folks’ radar for a long time.   He’s a guy that can fill up the stat sheet with 2B, 3B, HR’s and SBs   Hanson is still young and could be our 2B for a long time once he gets the opportunity.

One of the big missing players this season has been Elias Diaz.  Diaz, the cannon-armed cat of a catcher, needed arthroscopic surgery to clean up his elbow and has been on the DL.  Diaz will not hit like Mike Piazza in the show but as long as he hits like Michael Lavalliere that will be fine.  Diaz also has a strong platoon split, as he crushes LHP, which might be convenient as he will probably backup initially.

The Bullpen(?) Triumvirate 

Chad Kuhl might end up as a back end starter with his good two pitch mix and Steven Brault might use his cutter to go 5-6 innings in the show.   Trevor Williams is still the new guy with not many innings due to some minor injuries and he could be a starter for the Bucs as well.  My money, and most other people’s, is that they’ll all be relievers; but they’ll be really good relievers.  Look at the stability Melancon, Watson and Hughes have brought to the bullpen the last few years.  The three guys in AAA could do the same thing for 6+ years and for cheap.

The Hopeful Cornerstones

Can Josh Bell replicate the smooth swing of Will Clark?

I love the Will Clark comp for Josh Bell (H/T Steve DiMiceli) as Bell’s at-bats harken back to Clark.   Bell battles at the plate and doesn’t give the pitchers anything.  He also stings the balls and rarely K’s.  He could be a batting champion and his makeup is incredible.  The sky is the limit.

We can’t say much more about Glasnow and Taillon that hasn’t been said.   Taillon was a big investment that hasn’t been utilized yet, but looks solid and Glasnow looks likes a lottery ticket that may hit.  We’re lucky to have these two gems and hope they can lock down rotation spots for a while.

Final thought

Realize all these players will receive the league minimum salary for three years (plus the first half season if past Super Two), then have cheap arbitration salaries for a couple more.  This gives our team tremendous flexibility with its 25 man roster.

Back in the dark ages of 1997 the Pirates had a whole payroll of $9,071,667 but the team was terrible.  In a couple years a large portion of the team could be making the league minimum and yet be really good.  That’s what a stellar minor league system can do for you.

You pretty much have to look for Taillon’s face on the side of a milk carton these past two years.

Today we round out TPOP’s top 40 rankings. Special thanks once again to all of our participants. I think we provoked some thoughts while we also got to highlight how much is still in the system.

Kevin Creagh (KC) – TPOP

Michael Bradley (MB) – TPOP

Kurt Hackimer (KH) – winitforus.com and soon-to-be TPOP writer

Steve DiMiceli (SD) – TPOP

10. Ke’Bryan Hayes (3B, 19)

KH – Hayes, Pittsburgh’s other first round pick, is also a good bet to stick around on the left side of the infield because of his strong arm and keen baseball instincts. The 19­ year old son of former Pirate Charlie Hayes is more muscular than most teenage prospects and has a swing that has already warranted Top 100 Prospects consideration from several publications.

KC – Good lineage, had strong debut in 2015, albeit in GCL. Anxious to see his full-season debut this year.

MB – Hayes is one of the reasons that I’m hoping Melancon and Cervelli get us some comp picks.  Hayes had a great first season and looks to have some serious upside.  I’m assuming he’ll be in Charleston this summer and I might have to take a trip down to watch him.

SD – I already bought in on Carloz Munoz’s rookie ball performance. Hayes’s sandwich pedigree should have him higher for me, but I’m in wait and see mode.

9. Kevin Newman (SS, 22)

KH – An already polished product of the historic Cape Cod League, Newman was considered as a safe selection for the Pirates at the 19 spot in the draft. He has line ­drive power, can hit for average, and has a good chance to stick at shortstop. The last part is critical because the Pirates are thin at short, which should allow Newman to rapidly climb the organizational ranks.

SD – Not the pro debut you’d like to see, but he could provide an average or better hit tool and stick at short. That’s not a bad combination.

MB – I’m totally swayed by Keith Law’s conviction to his top prospect status.  Law swears he’s a sure fire ML shortstop with an all fields approach with the bat.

KC – Low upside college SS was 2015 1st round pick. Bat appears to have no power in it.

8. Elias Diaz (C, 25)

SD – At the very least, Diaz should know where to sit in the dug out to get the best view of the game following his phantom call up in September. Looks like a solid backup at worst.

KC – Remains in the mix for catching work in the future for Pirates, but his bat stagnated last year in AAA. Seems more like a 50 game player than a 110 game player.

KH – Defensively, Diaz is the whole package. He’s got a strong arm, a sturdy glove, and the ability to properly manage a pitching staff. Offensively, he didn’t progress as well in 2015 as he did in his breakout 2014 campaign and probably won’t become a star. But his patience at the plate and bat control should allow him to stick around in the majors.

MB – I hear all the hype about his defense, but I think his bat is going to take a long time, if ever, to come around against good ML RHP’s.  I think he’d be a great backup that plays against LHPs, but that could be Chris Stewart too and he just signed for a pittance (i.e. not that valuable).

7. Nick Kingham (RHP, 24)

KC – Out for most of 2016 after Tommy John surgery, but I still think he could be a #3.

MB – Maybe I blow off Tommy John surgery too much, but I think Kingham will be back and will be good.  I watched him throw in Altoona and at worst he’s a Jared Hughes.   At best he’s a solid #3.  I’m thinking Jeff Suppan.

SD – Broken elbow and all, Kingham still has a place in the top 10. I think he could still develop into a middle of the rotation type or a back of the bullpen type.

KH– Kingham probably would have been in the majors last season if Tommy John surgery hadn’t derailed his season. The righty is on the mend and, at 6’6”/230 lbs., has that workhorse frame that could allow him to rack up some 200 ­inning seasons from the bottom half of the Pirates rotation.

6. Harold Ramirez (OF, 21)

KH – Ramirez has a quick swing, strong wrists, and is able to generate lots of contact. His speed should make up for a perceived lack of power, but his thick lower half could reduce that speed advantage as he matures. He probably won’t stick at center, probably doesn’t have the arm for right. Wait. Am I just describing Jose Tabata?

KC – Injury prone, reminds me of Jose Tabata in terms of build. For me, he’s a 4th OF as I don’t think he hits enough to man a corner and not enough range for CF.

SD – Ramirez has done some impressive things playing against older competition.  He had a great summer and was the only bright spot for Columbia in the PanAm games.

MB – Another guy who I’m buying the Keith Law and Baseball Prospectus hype.  They rave about his bat and that’s the most important part of an offensive player.  A Melky Cabrera type could be nice in PNC.

5. Alen Hanson (2B, 23)

MB – Plus glove 2B with 30 steals and 10+ triples.   His splits are much better against RHP which is good with Mercer, Harrison, SRod and Kang now… and Frazier, Gift, Moroff and Newman in a couple years.

KH – The Pirates finally gave up on Hanson becoming a major league shortstop and moved the switch hitter to second base last season. His average hit tool is damaged by below average on­-base skill and power, which may make Hanson more useful to the Pirates as a utility player rather than an everyday second baseman.

SD – Bat still hasn’t broken out in the upper levels after a great year in Low A in 2012. ISO was a bit off this season, but was one of six players who qualified in AAA under the age of 23.

KC – Seems more like a utility infielder for me at this point, but he could still see some time in PGH this year (either out of spring training as bench player or in case of injury).

4. Jameson Taillon (RHP, 24)

MB – The Pirates love makeup and this guy seems to have a lot of it.  Pre-injuries he had a good fastball and a great curve.  If the change is good he could be a solid #2. Or he could be a solid #2 with just the fastball and curve just like Uncle AJ Burnett.

SD – Was major league ready prior to his injury but basically having two years off isn’t going to help his stock any. The layoff likely limits him to the bullpen in Pittsburgh this year.

KH – Due to injuries, it has been two seasons since Taillon has thrown in a meaningful ballgame, but he still has that top of the rotation pedigree that the Pirates dreamed about when they drafted him.  Taillon still needs to make up for lost developmental time in Triple A before he’s added to the major league rotation.

KC – After not pitching competitively for 2 years he has fallen off Top 100 lists, but I still like him as a downgraded #3 now.

3. Austin Meadows (OF, 21)

MB – I like Mark Kotsay as a low comp and Shin-Soo Choo as a high comp.   Per BA he can stick in CF and per my Twitter buddy Eno Sarris he has a “80 body”.   He could be a great asset or trade piece.

KC – I’m disappointed in the lack of power for a player that is probably destined to man a corner at PNC. Great hit tool, hoping he matures into more power.

KH – It’s questionable whether or not Austin Meadows will be able to stick in center field. Fortunately for the Pirates, they have three center fielders in their outfield already. If Meadows’s raw power continues to evolve into on­field pop, he could be the heir apparent to Andrew McCutchen.

SD – I think the Jay Bruce comps have stopped. Meadows has some solid contact skills, but the power needs to develop.

2. Josh Bell (1B, 23)

SD – Maybe going a little crazy here on Bell, but he could develop into one of the better hitters in baseball if power goes from balls in play flying off his bat to balls flying out of the park.

KH – Last year, the switch-­hitting outfielder became a switch­-hitting first baseman. While Bell’s average remained stellar and his strikeout­ to­ walk ratio (1:1) was impeccable, he didn’t generate much power. This could become problematic for him as he prepares to fill Pittsburgh’s perpetual hole at first.

MB – Bell’s floor is now a starting RF who sits against tough LHP.   His ceiling is an everyday middle of the order 1B who can sub in the corners.

KC – Power is tantalizing, but has not shown up in game action yet. Great K/BB numbers and strong hit tool. Defense is extremely rough at 1B.

1. Tyler Glasnow (RHP, 22)

KC – Has all the makings of a low-end #1/high-end #2 with his dominant fastball delivered from his gigantor 6-8″ frame, plus knee buckling curveball. Could see PGH in July.

MB –  I saw Tyson Ross as a comp for him.  That’s OK but his ceiling is so high.  The Pirates and their patient approach will get the most out of him which is going to be special.

KH – For several years, the Pirates have invested heavily in young projectable high school pitchers. Most of them have flamed out, except Glasnow. The righty boasts two plus pitches, a fastball that touches 100 MPH and a devastating curve, and is poised for a mid­season call up to The Show after he works out some kinks in Triple A Indianapolis.

SD – Glasnow is an excellent prospect with a great fastball/curveball combo and some control issues. He strikes a lot of guys out but he also gets hit pretty hard at times, too.

Join us late? Here are are the links to the rest of the rankings!

#11 – 20

#21 – 30

#31 – 40

Follow The Point of Pittsburgh on Twitter @thepointofpgh

Continuing with our trade value rankings of the Pirates organization, today we’ll look at #13 to #8.  You can read the primer and #25-21 and numbers #20-14 to catch up.

In today’s rankings you’ll start to question whether or not I’ve been drinking too much, but let me defend with some facts.

This offseason 30 year old David Price signed a deal that pays him 7 years at $31M a year AND has an player opt-out after three years so he can get back out in the market.

Also this offseason Zack Grienke used his opt out clause to get out of his contract with the Dodgers and sign a contract with the DBacks.  The contract will pay him $34M a year for the six seasons lasting from his 32 year old season through his 37 year old season.

J.A. Happ -3/$36M… Cueto… Samarzdzija ..etc.etc etc.

Then you get a player like Alex Gordon who is a rock solid, strong offensive and defensive player and he “only” gets 4/$72.

What I’m trying to say is the premium on good starting pitching has never been higher and the prospects ranked higher (or lower) than you’d guess has a lot to do with this effect.

On to the rankings:

13. Yeudy Garcia (23, A+/AA)

6.5 years of control     Trade Value Score – 82.8

Who-y is Yeudy?   That’s what I bet a bunch of you are saying, and I said the same thing last spring when I started hearing about this stud pitcher throwing in the South Atlantic League.

Yeudy Garcia was a “late sign” out of the Dominican Republic back in the 2013 at the old age of 20.    Normally prospects are signed before they finish puberty and this guy could almost drink by the time Rene Gayo inked him.    He had a good season in the Dominican Summer League in 2014 but nothing that would make you think he’d come stateside and dominate… but that’s what he did.

In 2015 Garcia dominated the South Atlantic League in 124 innings and went from an interesting name to an interesting prospect.  Baseball America rated Garcia as the 9th best SAL prospect in a year where the league was stacked with prospects.

Baseball America’s JJ Cooper (who’s also a rabid Steeler fan) wrote Garcia’s prospect writeup and mentioned Garcia’s lively 93-96 mph fastball, work ethic/demeanor and plus but inconsistent slider.  In an organization that has the most fastball emphasis around this sounds like some great qualities.

Garcia turned 23 in October so the Pirates might consider an abbreviated stop in Bradenton at High A ball and getting him to Altoona by mid-season.   If the Pirates consider him a bullpen piece he could be in the ML bullpen by next year, but I think they will exhaust him as a starter first and mid-2017 or 2018 would make more sense.

12.  Elias Diaz (25, AAA)

6.5 years of control     Trade Value Score – 82.8

I’d be surprised if you haven’t heard a lot about Elias Diaz by now.  Diaz has been heralded defensively his whole way through the minors, but he didn’t break out offensively until 2014 when he was in Altoona.

Diaz is one of a couple Pirates prospects that came from Venezuela.  He was signed at 17 and spent his first summer in the Venezuelan summer league.  After coming stateside, he struggled offensively for his first three seasons even repeating Low A in West Virginia. The Pirates know to be patient with catchers, especially ones with Diaz’s skill.     He turned the ship around in High A in 2013 and was named the best defensive catcher in the Eastern League by Baseball America in 2014 while hitting .328/.378/.445.

Baseball America bestowed an even bigger award naming him the recipient of the Captain’s Catcher award for the best defensive catcher in the minors.

Another thing worth noting with Diaz is the fact that he crushes LHP.   Diaz had a strong .271/.317/.500 line in 105 PA’s against LHP in ’15 buffering his .268/.332/.329 in 260 PA’s against RHP.  If Diaz comes up in 2016 it will probably be due to injury, making him a nice platoon candidate against LHP’s with no need to worry about his defense.

11.  Chad Kuhl (23, AAA)

6.5 years of control      Trade Value Score – 82.8          

Chad Kuhl might be another one where you say “who?” especially if you’re used to getting all the prospect news from the national guys.

I noticed Kuhl in 2013 when the Pirates skipped him over low A ball and sent him right from short season to Bradenton.  Normally this is a sign of a prospect they think is on the fast track (Justin Wilson, Adrian Sampson) and for a pitcher it probably means he has good fastball command… which the numbers back up.

Kuhl’s fastball bumped up a step this year at AA (touching 97 while sitting at 94) and he was able to control it better than most.  I think he could enter into a big league bullpen tomorrow and be a nice asset but the Bucs have other ideas.

Kuhl moved up the ladder so fast that he’s not even on the 40 man roster yet, meaning he can hang out in AAA, work on his stuff and not burn any options, i.e. like having a 41 man roster.  The thing is his stuff is ready right now… but the roster flexibility is more important which makes his trade value even higher.

10.  Alen Hanson (23, AAA/MLB)

6.5 years of control     Trade Value Score – 82.8

When I look at a player and try to assess whether they can play in the majors I start with defense.   Alen Hanson is a borderline Major League shortstop defensively, meaning he’s probably an above average third and second baseman and could even possibly play center field.   So “check” — Hanson is fine there.

Then you assess whether you think he could hit a level appropriate for his position.  If Hanson was still a shortstop this bar could be lower but let’s look at him as a 2nd baseman.

If you look at full season batting average and home runs Hanson doesn’t look too studly, but if you start breaking out splits Hanson begins to shine.  Hanson hits better LH against RH pitching with  a .270/.332/.405 line in 330 plate appearances… not to dismiss his 35 SBs.

So in an infield with the RH Kang at 3B, the RH Mercer at short and the RH Harrison at 2B, with the RH Sean Rodriguez as the primary backup, wouldn’t it be nice to have a LH middle infielder that could come up and give them a break against some RHP’s?  Hanson is a nice find and his time has come.

9.  Austin Meadows (21, AA)

6.5 years of control     Trade Value Score – 85.7

We’ve been talking about Meadows for a few years now and he still can’t legally drink a beer… if they even card him in his home state of Georgia.

Meadows was the gift given to us when Mark Appel didn’t sign and looks like a nice find with the ninth spot in the 2013 draft.  He made his way all the way to AA by last September.  I didn’t get to scout him in person yet, but that will be on the agenda for 2016.

I’ve tweeted with the aforementioned JJ Cooper about Meadows and he says the thoughts of Meadows needing to leave center field for a corner are inaccurate as Meadows plays a fine center.  I also tweeted with Eno Sarris about Meadows during the Arizona Fall League and Sarris said he has an “80 body” which we’ve heard before.

I’ll be anxious to see if his physique changes when he shows up to Altoona as I’ve watched Josh Bell and Willy Garcia throw some serious bulk on between A+ and AA.   If Meadows looks similar I’ll guess CF is still the plan and if he adds to that 6’3″ frame I’ll assume a corner is more likely.

8.  Nick Kingham (24,  AAA)

6.5 years of control     Trade Value Score – 88.9

Kingham would be the tallest member of the Blue Man Group

So far the Pirates 2010 draft class has had 16 starts made in the majors and zero from the two prize arms of Nick Kingham and Jameson Taillon.  Brandon Cumpton has 15 starts and Casey Sadler has one.    The ironic thing is that all four of the pitchers mentioned have now had Tommy John surgery.

Kingham was signed for $485,000 as an overslot sign with all the Bucs could cobble together after paying large bonuses to Taillon and Stetson Allie.

Kingham, which autocorrects to Kingdom more than I’d like, did the elite high school pitcher track by only spending one year in short season ball and moving directly to West Virginia in 2012.  He started breaking out as a prospect then by having great numbers as a 20 year old in 127 innings.   Kingham continued his progression and I caught one of his starts in Altoona in 2014.  You could tell he was focusing on his changeup as he struggled through the first two innings, but then they gave him his curve back in the third inning and he scuffled no more.

Kingham has the height and frame to be an easy 200 inning horse, with his upside being dependent on that changeup.  A #2 starter is not out of the question.

Kingham isn’t supposed to return to full workload until midseason so I’d expect him to be initially at AAA. He’d be an option to come up after the All Star game, but there might not be enough room.  I know that Huntington takes the roster a day at a time but a promotion for Kingham after the Super Two deadline in 2017 might be a good bet now.

***Updated Venn Below

Getting 7 years of Alen Hanson with a little spin

Alen Hanson needs to start the year in AAA and remain there for at least two weeks.   If he remains in AAA for at least two weeks he will be under Pirate control until November of 2022.   If he remains in AAA until June he will be under control through 2022 and will only go to arbitration thrice vice being a Super Two.

I really don’t even think Super Two status for Hanson is that much of a concern, as I don’t think he has superstar written all over him like Cole, Polanco, Marte etc.

Huntington just doesn’t want to give away a season of Hanson for two weeks if he could have someone to fill in.  Problem is that after Josh Harrison there isn’t much in the way of 2B other than Hanson available at Huntington’s disposal.   So enter Cole Figueroa

I hadn’t even heard of Figueroa when Huntington dropped his name and gushed over him recently.  At Piratefest Huntington said the following things about Figueroa he “does some things in the batter’s box that we absolutely love — commands the zone, uses the whole field … He’s going to be given every chance in the world to make our club.”  Cole who?

Figueroa looks like a Jaff Decker type of patient hitter that can play all the infield positions but has no power.  But Cole Figueroa wasn’t an option for a Yankees team that is a worse team than us and who needed a second baseman prior to the trade for Starlin Castro.   He is left-handed though with a bunch of RHH Pirate middle infielders after Walker was traded…. and he’s cheap and disposable.

With the signing of Sean Rodriguez the need for a stopgap for Hanson isn’t as bad.   Maybe with Serpico and Figueroa they can leave Hanson in the minors until the Super Two deadline passes.

But the overarching point is: to win the PR war with the media over Hanson starting the season in the minors Huntington has to plant the Figueroa seeds now.  You have to be good at trades, drafting and spin to be a good GM in today’s game.  Huntington is good at all.

—-

The money is there

The Pirates could be in very good shape in the 2017 season as far as payroll is concerned.

Other than Cutch and Liriano’s 8 figure salaries, most of the team is signed to affordable contracts (Kang, Harrison and Marte) or inexpensive in arbitration (Cole, Hughes and Watson).  They might have starters at catcher (Diaz), first base (Bell),  second base (Hanson) and rightfield (Polanco) making the league minimum as well as two or three of the rotation spots (Taillon, Glasnow and Kingham).

My rough estimation is that with all likely players the Pirates will have a payroll around $75M.  If the $95-$100M payroll is the new Pirates’ norm, they could take on a nice free agent or sign a hefty extension to someone like Cole or re-sign Cervelli.. or maybe extend Cutch.

—-

Pirates won’t sign another starter

In a ideal, yet realistic Pirates’ world, a 5 game stretch in September would have the following pitching lines:

Cole (W) – 8 innings: 3 hits 9 K’s 1 BB 0 runs

Liriano (W) – 9 innings: 5 hits 10 K’s 2 BBs 0 runs

Taillon (W) – 8 innings: 6 hits 9 K’s 1 BB 0 runs

Locke (W) – 8 innings: 3 hits 9 K’s 1 BB 1 run

Glasnow (W) – 7 innings: 3 hits 12 K’s 5 BBs 1 run

Comments:

#1 – Yes, Locke is in my ideal rotation.  Not Mat Latos.  Not Jon Niese.  Jeff “yinzer scapegoat” Locke.

Jeff Locke has the components of #2 starter stuff.   His fastball sits at 91-92 and touches 95.  His curve is nasty and his changeup is really good.   He struggles with command but when he finds it he’s very tough… he’s an All-star or he’s the pitcher that had the highest game score of ALL Pirates pitchers last year with an 84 versus the Indians on July 4th.  If you get really bored compare Locke’s pedigree, age and initial seasons to Wandy Rodiguez: very similar.   Left-handed pitchers take a long time to find command; if Locke does he can be a #2.

#2 – While everyone agrees that the Pirates would love to have a dominant Taillon and Glasnow in the rotation in the second half they aren’t seeing how that affects this offseason.   The Pirates don’t need to sign another #3 starter.   They want to insert Taillon and Glasnow into a rotation in June that includes Cole and Liriano and pick one of Locke/Niese/Vogelsong… and to a lesser extent Lobstein, Nicasio or Brault.

“What about an injury in the first half?”  – You have Lobstein or Brault… or even Taillon to bring up if it’s dire.

“What if Taillon and Glasnow struggle?”  –  They are the future of the rotation but all rookies have their growing pains (see: Marte, Polanco, Harrison, etc.)  There is only so much you can learn in AAA.

So count this guy as one that won’t be surprised in the Pirates don’t sign another starter and go with what the currently have in the system.

Tyler Glasnow represents the 3rd wave of prospects under Huntington’s watch to help Pittsburgh win
Photo by Cliff Welch

The Pirates have had notable success over the last three seasons, averaging 93 wins, and even contended the two seasons prior to that before succumbing to epic collapses late in the season. Unfortunatly, the players that built towards that success are fading out quickly.  Russell Martin departed via free agency prior to 2015 and AJ Burnett, who was in Philly in 2014, has retired. Neil Walker and Charlie Morton have already been traded and Pedro Alvarez was cut loose as a non-tender. A handful of others have come and gone at the trade deadline. All of these players provided contributions to winning baseball in Pittsburgh for the first time in 20 years. None of the above will be in Pirate uniforms in 2016.

It’s very possible that the Pirates will go through a transitional year in in 2016. What I mean when I say “transitional year” is that they might take a step back in the winning department, but it might also lead to bigger things down the road. This is different than a rebuild. Of course, coming off a 98 win season stepping back was pretty likely anyway. The group of players signed and drafted under the previous regime and developed by the current front office are gone as noted above or nearing the end of their Pirates control. Only Starling Marte has more than three seasons remaining. Even some Neal Huntington draft picks like Jordy Mercer have entered arbitration, while plenty of trade acquisitions and free agent contributors have come and gone. In short, the first wave of prospects moving through the system are veterans now (arrived between 2009-11) and starting to leave, and the second group that supplemented the first wave, like Gerrit Cole and Gregory Polanco, have established themselves (arrived between 2012-14). Thanks to a myriad of injuries to the top pitching prospects, no one arrived in 2015, but starting this season the third wave could begin replacing the first.

Like any prospects, not all of these players will make it in the major leagues. Some will fail to reach their full potential. Some will fall well short and bust entirely.  However, if one or two can reach their ceiling, it could help the Pirates extend their winning ways well after the first group departs, including Andrew McCutchen.

Right now, the Pirates are accumulating a ton of prospects at the AAA and AA levels. They have a number of high-ceiling prospects and more depth that could supplement the top prospects than they did in 2009. Many of these prospects would have been called up earlier then than they would now. Fortunately, there’s more talent in the majors now and this group can spend more time in the minors for development. Thanks to the extra time, they should be more major league ready by the time they’re actually given the call, but they will still need to adjust.

The first to arrive could be Alen Hanson. It’s not out of the question that he’ll be the Pirates’ opening day second baseman now that Walker’s been traded and Jung-ho Kang mends his busted knee and leg. I have doubts about the true ceiling of his bat in the majors, but I do think he can serve as a solid, defense-first second baseman who fits the system better than his predecessor.  His defense could provide a huge boost to the ground ball oriented pitching staff by scooping ground balls Walker didn’t have the range to haul in. While the Pirates might sacrifice some runs produced using Hansen at second to start the season, he could save some runs with his glove. When everyone’s healthy, he can go back to the minors and hopefully, improve his bat.

Several others could arrive by midseason. Josh Bell looks primed to take over the first base role that’s been a black hole for the Pirates since… I seriously don’t know when. I didn’t live in Pittsburgh the last time they got solid production there and I’ve been here for fifteen years. Bell still has some defensive kinks to work out, but he has huge offensive upside especially if you can add a little bit of power to the plus-rated contact skills. Of all the prospects, he feels the safest for me and could be their next middle of the order anchor.

The rotation as it was composed with Jon Niese and without Charlie Morton needed another warm body in it. Ryan Vogelsong probably wasn’t the first name on anyone’s mind, but the path to the majors for Tyler Glasnow and Jameson Taillon looks a lot clearer. Both have top of the rotation stuff, and it’s unlikely that the Pirates will sign anyone of that caliber in free agency. Their ceiling exceeds that of Scott Kazmir, a popular name appearing on the Pirates fan’s 2016 wish lists. Both could help at the major league level this season and getting them experience is important. While I’m not a big believer in their competitive window truly closing, Glasnow and Taillon could push the Pirates over the top while the last of the first wave are still contributing and keep it open past their departure. Starting pitching looks ugly now, will likely take a step back overall in 2016, but could allow for the Pirates to close 2016 with more upside than they did in 2015. It could also lead to a bizarre scenario where two mid-season call ups push Niese to a playoff bullpen for the second year in a row. In my opinion, this highlights that transition doesn’t always have to be a four letter word. It could make the Pirates better now, but they’ll need to endure April – June.

Looking past 2016, Austin Meadows could arrive in Indianapolis by July or August. While he has a long way to go to reach his Jay Bruce comparisons, he should be knocking at the door by 2017, even if he won’t likely be needed until 2018. Simply put, he’ll be working out any issues he still might have in the minors, rather than in the starting lineup with his service time accruing.

Beyond the elite core the Pirates have, there is depth well beyond what they had when Andrew McCutchen arrived in 2009. Players like Max Moroff and Adam Frazier simply didn’t exist the first time around and get overlooked. Both provide excellent line drive strokes with solid contact and excellent defense in the middle of the infield, while providing Alen Hanson insurance if he flops.  They’ve also got a couple of catching options in Elias Diaz and Reese McGuire.

There is considerable pitching depth as well. Some might turn into fringy 4th or 5th starters in the major league rotation. Chad Kuhl has quietly shown solid control paired with an excellent ground ball rate in AA this past season. He’s a very strong dark horse to replace a pitcher at the back end of the rotation. Others, like what Tony Watson did, may transition from starter to bullpen.  Nick Kingham is the first one that jumps off the list, as he was a former top 100 player, but will be recovering from Tommy John surgery this season. He could still start but he could easily find a home in the back end of the rotation allowing him to progress a little faster and take some stress off his brand spanking new elbow.  Pitchers like Zack Dodson and Jason Creasy probably don’t have a future in the rotation, but they could be converted to relief in Indianapolis. John Holdzkom, who looked like a stud in 2014 before hitting the shelf for much of 2015, could also be a factor. If he recovers, he can very easily become a stalwart late in the game.

The transition will likely result in fewer wins in 2016, but it’s unlikely that 98 wins would have been matched even without any change at the major league level. That’s a hard feat to duplicate two years in a row with the same team. It’s also unlikely that it’ll take 99 to win the division again or 97 to make the wild card game. I expect some fall off next season, but it’s not out of the question that the Pirates can stay competitive while they build towards the future.  If they can’t close on the pennant next season, it might lead to some frustration, but it should set help set the table for continued winning well beyond the first perceived window.

Will Alen Hanson be crossing the plate at PNC next year?
Photo by Jeremy Wadsworth/Toledo Blade

It’s been a good second half of the season in the Pirates’ farm system and while there are some players still underachieving and a handful who cooled off after hot starts, a number of hitters have elevated their status. Wednesday I’ll look at outfield/catcher spots and on Friday I’ll look at pitching, both starters and relievers.

SHORTSTOP

The Pirates have used high draft picks to address the position each of the last two years. They have an interesting mix of upside and utility. While the power isn’t there across the board, they have several with potential for four solid-average tools.  The depth was very good until the recent news about Cole Tucker and his labrum (more on him in the Second Base section) and the trade of Jacoby Jones to DET for Joakim Soria.

1. Kevin Newman (.257/.318/.350, 668 OPS across two levels, short season/Low A)

The 2015 first round pick really struggled at the plate, especially when you consider his success in the wooden bat Cape Cod League, although his numbers came around a little following his late-season promotion to the SAL. He showed the ability to hit for average with a decent walk rate that we expected. While he’s not hitting for much power, it doesn’t seem like he’s doing anything that would hurt a team, either.

2. Adam Frazier (.324/.384/.416, 800 OPS at AA)

Frazier’s ability to hit AA pitching to all fields makes him a slightly interesting prospect right now. He doesn’t have a lot of raw power, but he can find gaps and runs well enough to stretch an extra base.

3. Adrian Valerio (.218/.270/.319, 589 OPS in Rookie)

He had a light hitting season in his stateside debut, but the scouts seem to love his upside. He certainly has some things to work on, but he’s young and has time. As caution, the GCL has been deceptive in the past.

SECOND BASE

In truth, the Pirates’ future at 2B are mostly players they threw at SS who didn’t work out there or they didn’t have room for at certain levels. Some might be able to play several positions, but 2B seems like the best fit.

1. Alen Hanson (.263/.313/.387, 700 OPS at AAA)

Keeps his top spot almost by virtue of tenure. He’s played at a high level for the longest. The converted SS would provide a defensive upgrade in the infield and his error-riddled arm shouldn’t matter as much.

2. Max Moroff (.293/.374/.409, 783 OPS at AA)

Moroff’s slumped a little in the second half but he hasn’t been overmatched all year. He’s drawing walks and his K rate dipped below 20% for the first time since rookie ball. With 41 extra base hits this season, there is some pop in the bat, even if his Isolated Slugging of .116 doesn’t look too exciting. He has a little bit of a Brock Holt feel as a guy who’s light on the tools, but just hits. On top of that, he’s young for the level.

3. Cole Tucker (.293/.322/.377, 699 OPS at Low A)

2014’s first round choice looked like a reach when he was selected by the Pirates and a slow start to his pro career seemed to confirm it. However, as the season progressed so did the bat. The last two months prior to his injury, he began to pick it up by out hitting more highly regarded, same aged prospects down the stretch.  In June and July, he posted OPS’s of 796 and 798, respectively.

Then, he had a labrum surgery and his future at short is in doubt.  It has been reported that Tucker will miss all of 2016 during his rehab. While he hasn’t played much at second to this point, it seems like his position of the future, if he recovers at all.

THIRD BASE

The historical black hole of the Pirates system still kind of stinks, but they have more interesting players than they’ve had in a while.

1. Ke’Bryan Hayes (.308/.408/.346, 754 OPS across Rookie/Short Season)

Right or wrong, Hayes will constantly be compared to his father throughout his pro career given that both play third and possess similar skill sets. The good news is that Hayes outperformed Dad in round one in the GCL. Given the length of Charlie’s career however, this is the first of twenty rounds.

2. Jordan Luplow (.264/.366/.464, 830 OPS in Low A)

Luplow switched from OF to 3B heading into this past season. He got off to a slow but not terrible start to 2015, but really had a strong finish to the season.  In July and August, his OPS’s were 995 and 992, respectively.  The gap power played all season and the rest came around in a big way in in July and August. If he had started the season this hot, fans would have clambered for a promotion. As it stands, he’s become one of the deepest sleepers in the system.

3. Dan Gamache (.312/.355/.413, 768 OPS across AA/AAA)

I always been higher than most with Gamache. He had himself a nice 2015 to follow up a strong 2014. Gamache has good pop and sprays the ball. He has a little home run power and given a better hitting environment for lefties than Altoona’s Peoples Gas field could benefit him. He was a little old for the level, but a well earned promotion to AAA shows signs of faith in him by the front office. He could also be a back-up plan at 2B.

FIRST BASE

While 3B has been the black hole of the minors, 1B has been the black hole of the majors, despite often having players to look forward to in the minors. Brad Eldred, Steve Pearce, Andrew Lambo and Matt Hague to name a handful have joined the graveyard of failed prospects. There have been others to show promise, as well. Still none established themselves and a mediocre stint by Adam LaRoche remains the best they’ve been able to muster in a long time from the position at PNC Park.

1. Josh Bell (.317/.393/.446, 839 OPS across AA/AAA)

While Bell’s lack of home run production likely bothers some, including our own Kevin Creagh, his all-around package makes him the Pirates’ best chance to break the streak of 1B busts in quite a while. I personally rate him not only as the top 1B prospect, but the best prospect in the Pirates system ahead of the highly ranked pitcher Tyler Glasnow.

Why?  Because he puts the ball in play consistently and the ball explodes off the bat when it does.

While the power hasn’t played up yet, it will in my opinion. His hit tool is too strong and the quality of contact is too good for it not to. Even if it doesn’t, his ability to make solid contact might be underrated to where he could hit for high average with a lot of doubles. In my humble opinion, the worst case scenario for Bell (barring injury) is as a switch hitting version of James Loney.

2. Carlos Muñoz (.310/.426/.566, 992 OPS across two levels of Adv. Rookie/Short Season)

I won’t write an opus on Muñoz the way I did with Bell, but he came out of nowhere and crushed the Appy League. Of course, it’s not a league that has traditionally been a proving ground for elite prospects, but rather where teams stuff their mediocre ones to ensure plate appearances and innings for the more highly regarded. The list of Appy leaguers OPS’ing over 1.000 and failing to reach the majors is surprisingly long.

3. Jose Osuna (.286/.329/.435, 764 OPS across High A/AA)

Osuna’s capable of playing 1B and both corner outfield positions. He has a line drive swing that he seems perfectly content to use to make contact and to pull singles into left field. At this point, he probably is what he is, but there is promise to the bat if he decided to adjust his approach, by sacrificing some balls in play for more balls to the wall.

***

The Pirates have a lot of infield prospects with a good chance to reach the majors and play some role. A lot of them have a long way to go and most will miss, but it could be the strength of the organization now.

This shot of futility between Jack Wilson and Jason Bay sums up the 2005 Pirates nicely.

Generally speaking when people suggest team “X” competing at a lower of the same sport could defeat team “Y,” they’re full of crap and their argument riddled is with holes. We hear it almost annually in football. Could the #1 college team in the country beat the 0-8 NFL team midway through the season. Duquesne fans hear it in basketball after appallingly bad losses to low level D-I teams when some argue and honestly believe, the Dukes would lose to Chartiers Valley. In reality, the Dukes and that low level D-I team that it was a complete affront that they lost to would put a beat down on any public high school program in the country.

When things were bad with the Pirates, we never heard that their then AAA affiliate Nashville could beat them, but rather that the major league was a glorified AAA team. Of course, that would have been a ludicrous point as their AAA of lean years would have simply matriculated to the big club if it were in fact better than the major league team. However, AAA is considerably closer to the level of competition than college football is to the NFL or high school basketball is to the NCAA. Over 130 games against AAA, the current Pirates would even wear some losses along the way. The thought that a bad major league team could beat a glorified minor league team is considerably more plausible. When you actually start breaking teams down though, you realize it’s considerably more than you would think.

The Pirates fielded an exceptional AAA team last Friday night. It had quite a few players that belonged in the majors in some capacity and some who should get their chance in the very near future. I didn’t want to look back too far in the annals of suck, but I wanted to find a relatively recently bad Pirates team who last week’s Indians could not only beat, but outperform over an entire season. This was considerably more difficult than one might think and only one, the 2005 Pirates, stood out as even a remote possibility. That said, it’s still probably unlikely that it would.

In 2005, the Pirates had something of a transitional year where they were moving from one group that provided insufficient talent to another promising looking group who would also prove to simply not have enough in the tank. They were a couple of years removed for their big sell down that saw Brian Giles and Aramis Ramirez among the biggest names shipped out and they were floating by on the returns from those deals until help could arrive from the minors. This was a bad team that lost 95 games and started the year 8-14.  Tike Redman was the number three spot of the lineup for a brief stretch. Below is the computer that created the model that suggested he should hit there.

So I want to compare the meat and potatoes of these two teams. I’m only going to look at who Baseball Reference says was the lineup, the rotation, and the top five bench bats. I’m not going to consider who was traded away. I’m also going to look at what the players were when they played that season. If they were young and inexperienced then I will consider that when comparing the two teams. If they were aging and in full decline, I’ll consider that as well. I’ll break the teams down position by position and provide an overall grade at the end.

Note: Not comparing relative hitting environments. 2005 probably better for hitters worse for pitchers.

Catcher

Humberto Cota vs. Elias Diaz

Cota was the 2005 Pirates primary catcher and served as a stopgap between Jason Kendall and Ryan Doumit. Both he and Diaz are defense first catchers, but Cota had already been given the opportunity to drink a cup of coffee in the majors by the time he was 24 as Diaz currently is. At the same age and level of the minors, Diaz outperformed Cota slightly at the plate though Cota had demonstrated a better bat in his 22 and 23 seasons at the AAA level. Cota was a .4 fWAR catcher that season, his career best. While I think Diaz could provide strong enough defense at the majors to at least be a replacement level catcher, I don’t think the bat will play much better than that. I have to give the 2005 Pirates a slight advantage at catcher, though I think long term Diaz will prove to have the better career.

Slight Advantage 2005 Pirates

First Base

Darryl Ward vs Josh Bell

Ward had his moments earlier in his career as an Astro, but as a Pirate but he provided a -.5 fWAR in 2005. His bat played better in the later seasons of his career, but at 30 in 2005 it really felt like this was the best you would get. When I saw him in Altoona, Bell looked like one of the most major league ready bats I’d seen at the AA level. I think Bell could step in and provide at least replacement level hitting over a full season if not more.

Advantage 8/21/15 Indy Indians

Second Base

Jose Castillo vs Alen Hansen

This is a very similar situation to the catcher in that I think the Indy player will have a considerably better career, but at the time is currently as prepared for the major league level. Castillo flashed a sad career high of .1 fWAR in 2005. Hansen was named the top defensive second baseman in the International league, so he’d likely provide a huge upgrade at that position. However, it’s unlikely his bat will play at the level of Castillo’s over an entire 162 games. Even saving runs with his glove, Hansen would likely be a slightly below replacement level player.

Slight Advantage 2005 Pirates

Third Base 

Freddy Sanchez vs Dan Gamache

That’s right folks. Freddy Sanchez played more at third than second in 2005. I bet you forgot that just like I did. He broke out in 2005 on the back of excellent defense and excellent contact that season. While it’s a no-brainer that Freddy Sanchez would contribute more to our hypothetical than Dan Gamache would right now, it’s worth noting that the two are pretty similar. Both play third and second. Both have fringy prospect status and even if Sanchez was a year away from winning the batting title, no one would have guessed it heading into ’05. You sacrifice contact for power with Gamache in the long run, but he’s one of the more underrated and closest-to-ready bats in the system right now.

Big Advantage 2005 Pirates

Shortstop

Jack Wilson vs Jordy Mercer

Ok, so I’m cherry picking here a little bit, but we’re probably not even having this conversation if Jordy didn’t play Friday. Here’s why I don’t feel dirty including him. With the way the major league team is currently composed, Mercer doesn’t have a clear role with Pirates. Personally, I’d like to see the Pirates stash him in Indy until they absolutely must add him. Not because I don’t think he’s a solid major leaguer, it’s just that I don’t see an obvious player for him to replace. Jack was excellent with the glove, but his bat regressed back closer to career norms in 2005. When he’s on, Mercer’s the better hitter and he’s not a slouch in the field. I don’t see a huge difference between the two.

Push

Right Field

Matt Lawton vs Willy Garcia

Lawton is a weird case. He was good as a Pirate, got traded and was terrible the rest of the season. He OPS’ed .752 over the entire season in Pittsburgh, Chicago and New York as well, but rough defense led to an all around -.1 fWAR. Garcia wouldn’t hit as well, but improving contact, a second half return of his power, and excellent defense might make him as valuable if not slightly better.

Push

Center Field

Tike Redman vs Keon Broxton

Here is the thing about Tike Redman. Heading into 2005, he actually looked like a decent option in center. Certainly not a three hitter, but before his slump in his second year as a full time player, one would have expected more than a -.7 fWAR. Broxton isn’t the ideal top of the order hitter due to poor contact numbers, but he’s stepped up the walks and stolen bases in 2015. While I don’t love his ceiling right now, I’d be surprised if Broxton can’t at least OPS in the low .600’s given regular ABs, while setting the table when he gets on.

Slight Advantage 8/21/15 Indy Indians

Left Field

Jason Bay vs Travis Snider

I don’t need to spend much time on this. Jason Bay was an All Star and a budding star. Travis Snider at his best has been a semi-solid platoon semi-regular. He’s an excellent AAA player, but he ain’t no Bay.

Big Advantage 2005 Pirates

Bench

2005 Pirates
Rob Mackowiak
Craig Wilson
David Ross
Bobby Hill
Ty Wigginton

8/21/15 Indians
Corey Hart
Tony Sanchez
Jaff Decker
Gorkys Hernandez
Steve Lombardozzi

There were quite a few of these Indians bench players on the injured reserve, but I wanted to illustrate a point. Quite a few of these players have had stints in the majors this season and technically, Corey Hart is on a rehab assignment even if he’s likely to get warehoused for a couple of weeks. They’re not as good as the 2005 group, but they’re an unlikely AAA bench for sure. Of the ten bench bats, Jaff Decker might be the most interesting as he managed to OPS near .600 in a small sample with a .125 BABIP. That’s crazy bad luck.

Advantage 2005 Pirates

Starting Rotation

2005 Pirates
1. Oliver Perez
2. Mark Redman
3. Kip Wells
4. Josh Fogg
5. David Williams

8/21/15 Indians
1. Tyler Glasnow
2. Rahamedes Liz
3. Vance Worley
4. Chris Volstad
5. Wilfredo Boscan

When I reflect on the 2005 Pirates lineup, it’s not nearly as bad as I expected to be. The rotation is where the wheels fall off. Oliver Perez’s abrupt decline from elite starter to fringe back end blew us all away, but there’s no denying what he had he lost in 2005. Redman somehow managed to post a 2.1 fWAR, but I’m still not buying it when you see his 4.90 ERA and 4.19 xFIP.

While I’m not huge on Tyler Glasnow in the majors right now, I think he could easily outperform the 2005 menagerie of back end at best starters. When I saw him a month ago, he looked like he had some work to do, but he’s beginning to dominate in AAA. I think he could be solid #4 right now and a fringe #3 which would put him head and shoulders above the competition. I think he could post an ERA in the 4.10-4.40 range, but Steamer projects him even lower at 3.86.

Vance Worley got punted from the Pirates’ strong rotation for numbers that would top the 2005 staff in ERA, while coming in second in xFIP. Worley’s sunk in the minors but could easily match the productivity of Wells or Fogg. Liz is the wild card. He pitched Ok out of the pen in the majors and has been excellent since joining the Indy rotation. I’d have to think he’d do better than much than the old group.

Anyone still accusing me of cherry picking on Mercer, the bench or in the bullpen, keep in mind I could have easily have included a tanker full of injured pitchers who should be pitching for the Indians (or the Pirates) right now. Jameson Taillon, Nick Kingham, Brandon Cumpton, Casey Sadler, and Angel Sanchez. If you’ve had Tommy John recently or even just an owie in your forearm recently, I’m not including them here.

 Big Advantage 8/21/15 Indians

Bullpen

2005 Pirates
Jose Mesa
Salomon Torres
Rick White
Brian Meadows
John Grabow
Mike Gonzalez
Ryan Vogelosong

8/21/15 Indians
Rob Scahill
Bobby LaFramboise
AJ Morris
Jeff Inman
Deolis Guerra
Blake Wood
John Holdzkom

Gotta hand it to Dave Littlefield. He mostly sucked as a GM, but he could put together a halfway decent bullpen. The top end of the pen is easily better than anything in Indy right now with guys like Torres and Gonzalez and there was an Ok supporting cast behind them. After that, there are a number of players who could or have performed better over a full season than the Indy group. Scahill looks like he could be a decent late inning guy and Guerra performed well in the majors until he got completely blown up in his final appearance. LaFramboise has also pitched well in stints and might outperform the 2005 version of Grabow. After that you have some big arms that haven’t stayed healthy like Inman and Holdzkom this year. The Indy pen might not be as strong at the back end with fewer clear options, but it could be stronger in all other facets.

Push

****

In the end, the 2005 Pirates are better, as Friday’s Indy team simply can’t match the best that bad team had to offer like Bay, Gonzalez, Sanchez and Torres. Outside of those four, the teams are shockingly similar in terms of talent and ability to win. The 2005 Pirates avoided the 100 loss season, but even with considerably better pitching and defense which in the end is what matters, I have a difficult time seeing the Indians match that. Other than a roster full of players with 45-50 power, I just don’t see where the offense comes from.  Both are bad major league teams, but the 2005 Pirates would be slightly better.

That said, this is probably much closer than it should be. What makes this exercise interesting is that it does explain the relative position of the franchise in two points in history. The fact that the minor league club is even in the ballpark of the major league one speaks volumes for the organization’s improvement and current depth.

Edited 8/28/2015 — change to Darryl Ward after some Randall Simon confusion.

Graphic by Michael Bradley for TPOP

In my college statistics class we talked a good bit about Permutations and Combinations.  I understood the concepts but would always mix up the names;  Permutations are for lists (order matters) and combinations are for groups (order doesn’t matter).

The Pirates current infield situation could almost border on a Statistics class question.  This is a very new problem for the Pirates… and a very good “problem” to have.    In this article I will go over the possible and probable infield combinations over the next year and two months (now until opening day 2017).

2015

1) Current lineup – As of August 10th

LHP – 1B Morse  2B Walker  SS Kang  3B Ramirez
RHP – 1B Pedro  2B Walker  SS Kang  3B Ramirez

With Mercer and Harrison out the lineup is pretty straightforward.   Morse supplants Pedro against LHPs and the rest is the same.    My Twitter buddy Pat Lackey and I have concurred that both our 1B are terrible defensively so you’ll see plenty of Sean “Serpico” Rodriguez.   Kang is the team MVP both because of his performance and the injuries at the positions he plays.

2) Healthy Mercer Lineup  (not healthy Harrison) – August

LHP – 1B  Morse  2B  Walker  SS  Mercer  3B  Kang
RHP – 1B  Pedro  2B  Walker  SS  Kang      3B  Ramirez

When Mercer returns to the lineup he upgrades the range at SS from Kang and brings a good bat against LHP.   His bat is too poor against RHP to be the regular SS during the pennant race plus Kang’s defense has been acceptable at SS.

Also, while Kang could play 2B and replace Walker’s abysmal track record against LHP that might be a bad idea.     Playing a new position midyear increases the odds of getting injured and would not be considered at this point.

3) Healthy Harrison (not healthy Mercer) – August

LHP – 1B  Morse  2B  Harrison SS  Kang  3B Ramirez
RHP – 1B  Pedro  2B  Walker     SS  Kang  3B Harrison

While it would be tough to put Walker into a platoon at 2B, Harrison’s defense and baserunning need to get back into the lineup as soon as possible.   Harrison’s .751 career OPS against LHP trumps Walker’s figure of  .665 and the defense should be the same.   Also having another LH pinch hitter off the bench will be a nice luxury.

4) Healthy Harrison and Mercer lineup – August and September

LHP – 1B  Morse  2B  Harrison SS  Mercer  3B  Kang
RHP – 1B  Pedro  2B  Walker   SS  Kang       3B Harrison

First, let’s assume Huntington can juggle rosters until the September 1st roster expansion as to not have to DFA anyone he wants to keep.

With the full portfolio in front of him Hurdle can almost platoon the whole infield.  Morse and Mercer will get some starts against RHPs to stay fresh and Serpico will still relieve the 1B in the late innings.

5) Playoff lineup

LHP  – 1B  Morse  2B  Harrison SS  Mercer 3B  Kang
RHP  – 1B Pedro   2B  Walker    SS  Kang    3B  Harrison

The LHP lineup is probably the most relevant lineup in this whole article as it looks as the Pirates have a good chance of facing John Lester, Madison Baumgartner or Clayton Kershaw in the one game Wild Card game.

The LH starting pitcher also makes you entertain the thought of Harrison playing RF at PNC but Polanco’s last month has put that thought to rest.

2016

Possible Opening Day 2016 lineups

1B  Pedro      2B  Walker       SS  Mercer  3B  Kang
1B  Pedro      2B  Walker       SS  Kang     3B  Harrison
1B  Walker    2B  Harrison   SS  Mercer   3B  Kang
1B  Ishikawa 2B  Harrison   SS  Mercer   3B  Kang

What the Pirates do in the offseason with Pedro and to a lesser extent Walker will have large chain reaction that will be felt over several seasons. Pedro getting DFAed after this season is a real possibility. While I don’t consider his salary too much to bring back especially since he’d have a full season at 1B and be Boras client in a contract year, it could be used to bring back Melancon, find another Volquez or Burnett, etc. Walker learning the 1B is a possibility especially since he could still play 2B from time to time. Finally, I believe Ishikawa has another year of Arbitration if they’d want to him to be a cheap veteran option to hold the fort until…

Mid Season 2016 lineups

1B  Bell        2B  Harrison    SS  Mercer   3B  Kang
1B  Bell        2B  Walker       SS  Kang       3B  Harrison
1B  Walker  2B  Hanson      SS  Kang       3B  Harrison

Josh Bell and Alen Hanson will be able to miss Super Two deadlines and the plethora of infield options here show that they won’t be brought up any earlier than that. Hanson is more ready than bell as he’ll have almost two years at AAA and is a plus defensive 2B with the ability to play the left side..if we didn’t have three other starters there. Hanson easily could be another Harrison.

Bell is a butcher at 1B and might realistically never “get it” since he’s never played infield in his 22 years.

It also seems that at this stage Mercer could strongly be the backup role due to better bats emerging.

2017

Opening Day 2017 lineups

1B  Bell        2B  Hanson    SS  Kang    3B  Harrison
1B  Walker  2B  Hanson    SS  Kang    3B  Harrison
1B  Bell        2B  Walker     SS  Kang     3B  Harrison
1B  Kang      2B  Hanson   SS  Mercer  3B  Harrison

Even though this is barely a year out it’s too much of a crap shoot to figure out. Most would argue that Walker is gone by now. I concur it’s a strong possibly but his desire to stay in Pittsburgh and the chance that Bell can’t play 1B at least open the door.

The top lineup of Bell, Hanson, Kang and Harrison (with Mercer on bench) could be a good cheap lineup which could buffer our rotation and OF that would be getting expensive.

*  Hanson could also play the left side of the infield but Mercer, Kang and Harrison will keep him at 2B for a while

** Walker at 2B is purely speculation but the options at 2B to start 2016 (Harrision, Hanson, Kang) outnumber the options at 1B that might be zero if Pedro is DFAed.

Now that Price is on the market, is it worth it to get him?
Photo by Kim Klement/USA Today Sports

Today the Detroit Tigers announced something that many people could see coming weeks ago — they were going to “reboot” and cut their losses on the 2015 season by looking to move some of their soon-to-be free agents.  The prime free agent they have is LHP David Price, who is a true #1 ace.  Every team in MLB would love to have him in their rotation.

But should the Pirates try to get him by Friday’s trade deadline?  I’m inclined to say ‘no’ and here’s why:

THEIR PLACE IN THE PLAYOFF RACE

Prior to the All-Star Break, the Pirates narrowed the gap to 2-1/2 games between themselves and the Cardinals for the NL Central race.  But the Pirates stumbled out of the gate and the Cardinals did not, so as of this writing the Cardinals are 5 games up on the Pirates with 62 games to play.  While it’s possible that the St. Louis Cardinals blow that lead (hi, 2014 Brewers!), it’s not likely that they do so.

So in effect, the Pirates are lining themselves up for another Wild Card appearance.  That shouldn’t be minimized and swept under the rug.  It would be the 3rd year in a row that the Pirates make the playoffs, which only 8 American League and 4 National League teams have done in the Wild Card era from 1995 to the present.  The Pirates would be the 5th (and the Dodgers potentially the 6th).

As the Wild Card game is a potential one-and-done, is it worth it to expend both monetary resources and player asset resources for a two-month rental that may not even be used in the playoffs?  It’s hard to see, even with how great Price is, how he would start over Gerrit Cole, potentially at home in PNC Park.

THE ACQUISITION COST

Even though Price is a two-month rental and may only be worth 2 WAR to the team that acquires him, his surface stats speak for themselves.  His nearly 7 innings/start, 2.53 ERA/3.00 FIP are going to command at least two premium prospects and a mid-tier third.  We’re big on surplus value here at TPOP, but even though there’s just a modest amount over his remaining $6.6M salary, the extra ‘trade deadline premium’ will come into effect for a bonafide ace.

The Tigers are weighed down by some bloated veteran contracts to Justin Verlander, Miguel Cabrera, and Victor Martinez, plus big contracts to Anibal Sanchez and Ian Kinsler.  They almost are forced to keep powering through this stretch with MLB-ready players, not long-term prospects.  As such, the discussion between Tigers’ GM Dave Dombrowski and Pirates’ GM Neal Huntington would start with premium pitcher, Tyler Glasnow (recently promoted to AAA).

In a perfect world, it wouldn’t be hard to envision that Dombrowski would ask for Glasnow, Jameson Taillon, and Alen Hanson.  But Glasnow is almost assuredly off limits, even for a talent such as Price, just because it’s not worth giving up 6+ seasons of Glasnow (himself a low-end #1/high-end #2 type pitcher) for just two months of Price.  Additionally, Taillon’s lost season may be dinging his prospect value.  In 2016, he’ll be 24 years old, still in need of shaking of Tommy John rust, and not having competitively pitched in nearly two full seasons.  The potential addition of Hanson would just be the straw that broke the discussion’s back.

And if Glasnow and Taillon are off the table, who are the other pitching prospects available that are MLB-ready, healthy, and appealing to Detroit?  Nick Kingham is out for most of 2016.  Brandon Cumpton will be returning from Tommy John mid-season, but he’s a #4.  It’s hard to see Adrian Sampson commanding much attention.

Perhaps a package could be built around OF Austin Meadows, if the Tigers would be fine with a High A player as the centerpiece of a deal, and 1B/OF Josh Bell.  For me, that’s a lot to give up for just two months of a player (again) that may not pitch for the Pirates in the playoffs.  And while I’m fine with dealing Meadows/Bell for players at the deadline, it should be for players that are under control past 2015, at least.

THE COUNTER-ARGUMENT

The first two reasons were built around the viewpoint that the Pirates have a 50-50 shot at winning the Wild Card game.  But what if they do win it and advance to the NL Divisional Series?  Wouldn’t David Price be a huge asset?

Of course he would.  The bar for any pitcher potentially acquired at the non-waiver July deadline or even by the August deadline should be this one question — would this pitcher start over any of Gerrit Cole, A.J. Burnett, and Francisco Liriano in the playoffs?  With the way scheduling happens, you really only need three starters in the playoffs, maybe a fourth pitcher one time.

There is value in the Pirates acquiring a lower-wattage pitcher so that they can upgrade over Morton and/or Locke for the remainder of the regular season, but I wouldn’t want to waste the few premium, healthy trade chips we have on a guy that wouldn’t displace one of the top 3 pitchers.

David Price, obviously, would displace either Burnett or Liriano for a playoff run.  Burnett has shown signs of regressing from his unsustainable start to the season in his last two starts, giving up 11 runs in 11.2 innings pitched.  It’s possible that some of the pixie dust is wearing off and he may not be as dominant down the stretch.  Perhaps Price would shift Liriano out of the playoff rotation if Hurdle didn’t want two lefty starters for whatever reason.

A playoff rotation in the NLDS of Cole-Price-Burnett/Liriano would be fearsome and stack up against whatever the Dodgers, Giants, Cubs, Nationals, Cardinals, or Mets would potentially throw out there.  But the calculus behind whether to game giving up significant assets is too much of a gamble for my tastes.