For a refresher, July 1st is the cutoff for age: for example if a player turns 23 after July 1st this would be his 22 year old season.
The average age is 23.61 and if you omit the 32 year old Antoan Richardson in AAA the average age becomes 23.5 which I think is pretty good.
A.J. Schugel who just got called up last week is the only 27 year old on the farm (assuming he comes back down) Ed Easley is the only 30 year old.
The oldest player is the aforementioned Richardson and the youngest is Ke’Bryan Hayes at 19.
The ROYGBP color scheme goes youngest to oldest with Reds and Oranges being the 19-23. So, if you’re a reddish player in AAA or AA like Glasnow or Meadows/McGuire your future’s so bright….
Working my way down this chart so you can read along. Let’s talk AAA.
AAA
Tyler Glasnow is very young and is one of the youngest in AAA per Baseball America, but he’s only three months younger than Max Moroff.
Jhondaniel Medina, while never on my prospect radar, is crazy young for AAA and this will cause me to pay more attention to him.
I think Stephen Brault and Trevor Williams’ age and non lights out stuff will get them to the bullpen to gain mph and become the next Watson and Hughes (hopefully),
Starter Chad Kuhl is young for AAA and is NOT on the 40 man. He’d be a great trade chip to sell high on come this July or could be a Tony Watson type bullpen stalwart for many years.
Josh Bell is one month from being a 24 year old in AAA. Hopefully he takes advantage of the time Jaso bought him and hits the ball like George Bell in 1989.
Jung Ho Kang is currently hitting like a 29 year old AAAA member but hopefully he starts beating up on the pitchers in the IL. Darn you Chris Coghlan.
AA
Austin Meadows is crazy young for AA and would be knocking on the door at AAA if not for the orbital injury. He’s almost two full years younger than Glasnow.
Catchers develop slower so Reese McGuire has history on his side. His young age at AA is also a benefit.
Jin-De Jhang is two months from being a 22 year old in AA (a very good age for AA). He has a strong arm, walks and hits RHP well. He’s a good bet for a backup catcher adding to the Pirates depth.
Edwin Espinal is the only 22 year old in AA and is being giving the opportunity to break out this year.
Clay Holmes is young at 23 in Altoona but would probably be in AAA if not for the Tommy John surgery.
I’m one of the few remaining Stetson Allie fans, but he was old when he was drafted and is looking ancient in AA. He needs to crush LHP and get to AAA.
On to High A and Bradenton.
High A
“Drive By” Cole Tucker is a choir boy whose body is a blank palette for a fan to dream on. Long levers is the term of choice. If the shortstop position is vacant when he returns this month due to Kevin Newman hitting his way to AA, Tucker might be the youngest player in Bradenton. When you think about it, if Tucker hadn’t been injured he would have been the starting SS in Bradenton at an age TWO years younger than Newman.
Heredia is still a mountain of a being, but barely able to drink legally as a young one in high A. I doubt he ever sees the show, but he’s still young enough to be on the right track.
I didn’t realize that Brandon Waddell was so young. He’s a month away from being a 21 year old in High A and if he keeps up his performance of late he’ll be in AA soon.
Taylor Gushue was very young when he was drafted and was a bit of a wildcard due to the fact that he was a backup behind college superstar Mike Zunino most of his college career. Gushue is hitting well in High A and might force Huntington’s hand if he keeps it up through midseason.
Jordan Luplow reeks of a Cardinal prospect: young enough to be given time to develop, solid hit tool and no perfect position. If he becomes a Tommy Pham or a Steve Piscotty I would not be surprised.
Poor Connor Joe. He is supposedly a tremendous teammate and person who has battled injuries, ineffectiveness and has been usurped by younger prospects. I wouldn’t be surprised for him to wash out soon and join the Pirates’ minor league coaching staff.
Low A
Ke’Bryan Hayes is making everyone look old and inept, as he is playing very well at Low A creating a potential infield logjam at High A if he gets promoted.
Cole Tucker would still be young for Low A if he starts there vice High A.
Michael De La Cruz technically isn’t in Low A yet but will be if/when Tito Polo get bumped up to Bradenton.
Mitch Keller has been dominant in his first few starts but is still on the right side of 21. If keeps this up he could see High A by midseason and force the Bucs to make a hard decision (High A or AA) for next year’s opening day.
Realistically, the group from Tito Polo down through Logan Sendelbach are the same age. Polo is the most recognized name but he’s NOT really been recognized as much a prospect and needs a big breakout this year if he wants to surpass some of the OF prospects. The most revered of all this fivesome is Carlos Munoz. He’s a Mexican product, which leaves a bit of variance and he hits everywhere he goes, causing him to show up on the Baseball America Top 20 for the Appy League in 2015. Hopefully he becomes our Matt Adams.
Mitchell Tolman is as good of a defensive 3B as I’ve watched live. He’s got great instincts and has a cannon for an arm. He could be a homegrown Brent Morel here in a couple years which is not a terrible thing for you chucklers.
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You pretty much have to look for Taillon’s face on the side of a milk carton these past two years.
Today we round out TPOP’s top 40 rankings. Special thanks once again to all of our participants. I think we provoked some thoughts while we also got to highlight how much is still in the system.
Kevin Creagh (KC) – TPOP
Michael Bradley (MB) – TPOP
Kurt Hackimer (KH) – winitforus.com and soon-to-be TPOP writer
Steve DiMiceli (SD) – TPOP
10. Ke’Bryan Hayes (3B, 19)
KH – Hayes, Pittsburgh’s other first round pick, is also a good bet to stick around on the left side of the infield because of his strong arm and keen baseball instincts. The 19 year old son of former Pirate Charlie Hayes is more muscular than most teenage prospects and has a swing that has already warranted Top 100 Prospects consideration from several publications.
KC – Good lineage, had strong debut in 2015, albeit in GCL. Anxious to see his full-season debut this year.
MB – Hayes is one of the reasons that I’m hoping Melancon and Cervelli get us some comp picks. Hayes had a great first season and looks to have some serious upside. I’m assuming he’ll be in Charleston this summer and I might have to take a trip down to watch him.
SD – I already bought in on Carloz Munoz’s rookie ball performance. Hayes’s sandwich pedigree should have him higher for me, but I’m in wait and see mode.
9. Kevin Newman (SS, 22)
KH – An already polished product of the historic Cape Cod League, Newman was considered as a safe selection for the Pirates at the 19 spot in the draft. He has line drive power, can hit for average, and has a good chance to stick at shortstop. The last part is critical because the Pirates are thin at short, which should allow Newman to rapidly climb the organizational ranks.
SD – Not the pro debut you’d like to see, but he could provide an average or better hit tool and stick at short. That’s not a bad combination.
MB – I’m totally swayed by Keith Law’s conviction to his top prospect status. Law swears he’s a sure fire ML shortstop with an all fields approach with the bat.
KC – Low upside college SS was 2015 1st round pick. Bat appears to have no power in it.
8. Elias Diaz (C, 25)
SD – At the very least, Diaz should know where to sit in the dug out to get the best view of the game following his phantom call up in September. Looks like a solid backup at worst.
KC – Remains in the mix for catching work in the future for Pirates, but his bat stagnated last year in AAA. Seems more like a 50 game player than a 110 game player.
KH – Defensively, Diaz is the whole package. He’s got a strong arm, a sturdy glove, and the ability to properly manage a pitching staff. Offensively, he didn’t progress as well in 2015 as he did in his breakout 2014 campaign and probably won’t become a star. But his patience at the plate and bat control should allow him to stick around in the majors.
MB – I hear all the hype about his defense, but I think his bat is going to take a long time, if ever, to come around against good ML RHP’s. I think he’d be a great backup that plays against LHPs, but that could be Chris Stewart too and he just signed for a pittance (i.e. not that valuable).
7. Nick Kingham (RHP, 24)
KC – Out for most of 2016 after Tommy John surgery, but I still think he could be a #3.
MB – Maybe I blow off Tommy John surgery too much, but I think Kingham will be back and will be good. I watched him throw in Altoona and at worst he’s a Jared Hughes. At best he’s a solid #3. I’m thinking Jeff Suppan.
SD – Broken elbow and all, Kingham still has a place in the top 10. I think he could still develop into a middle of the rotation type or a back of the bullpen type.
KH– Kingham probably would have been in the majors last season if Tommy John surgery hadn’t derailed his season. The righty is on the mend and, at 6’6”/230 lbs., has that workhorse frame that could allow him to rack up some 200 inning seasons from the bottom half of the Pirates rotation.
6. Harold Ramirez (OF, 21)
KH – Ramirez has a quick swing, strong wrists, and is able to generate lots of contact. His speed should make up for a perceived lack of power, but his thick lower half could reduce that speed advantage as he matures. He probably won’t stick at center, probably doesn’t have the arm for right. Wait. Am I just describing Jose Tabata?
KC – Injury prone, reminds me of Jose Tabata in terms of build. For me, he’s a 4th OF as I don’t think he hits enough to man a corner and not enough range for CF.
SD – Ramirez has done some impressive things playing against older competition. He had a great summer and was the only bright spot for Columbia in the PanAm games.
MB – Another guy who I’m buying the Keith Law and Baseball Prospectus hype. They rave about his bat and that’s the most important part of an offensive player. A Melky Cabrera type could be nice in PNC.
5. Alen Hanson (2B, 23)
MB – Plus glove 2B with 30 steals and 10+ triples. His splits are much better against RHP which is good with Mercer, Harrison, SRod and Kang now… and Frazier, Gift, Moroff and Newman in a couple years.
KH – The Pirates finally gave up on Hanson becoming a major league shortstop and moved the switch hitter to second base last season. His average hit tool is damaged by below average on-base skill and power, which may make Hanson more useful to the Pirates as a utility player rather than an everyday second baseman.
SD – Bat still hasn’t broken out in the upper levels after a great year in Low A in 2012. ISO was a bit off this season, but was one of six players who qualified in AAA under the age of 23.
KC – Seems more like a utility infielder for me at this point, but he could still see some time in PGH this year (either out of spring training as bench player or in case of injury).
4. Jameson Taillon (RHP, 24)
MB – The Pirates love makeup and this guy seems to have a lot of it. Pre-injuries he had a good fastball and a great curve. If the change is good he could be a solid #2. Or he could be a solid #2 with just the fastball and curve just like Uncle AJ Burnett.
SD – Was major league ready prior to his injury but basically having two years off isn’t going to help his stock any. The layoff likely limits him to the bullpen in Pittsburgh this year.
KH – Due to injuries, it has been two seasons since Taillon has thrown in a meaningful ballgame, but he still has that top of the rotation pedigree that the Pirates dreamed about when they drafted him. Taillon still needs to make up for lost developmental time in Triple A before he’s added to the major league rotation.
KC – After not pitching competitively for 2 years he has fallen off Top 100 lists, but I still like him as a downgraded #3 now.
3. Austin Meadows (OF, 21)
MB – I like Mark Kotsay as a low comp and Shin-Soo Choo as a high comp. Per BA he can stick in CF and per my Twitter buddy Eno Sarris he has a “80 body”. He could be a great asset or trade piece.
KC – I’m disappointed in the lack of power for a player that is probably destined to man a corner at PNC. Great hit tool, hoping he matures into more power.
KH – It’s questionable whether or not Austin Meadows will be able to stick in center field. Fortunately for the Pirates, they have three center fielders in their outfield already. If Meadows’s raw power continues to evolve into onfield pop, he could be the heir apparent to Andrew McCutchen.
SD – I think the Jay Bruce comps have stopped. Meadows has some solid contact skills, but the power needs to develop.
2. Josh Bell (1B, 23)
SD – Maybe going a little crazy here on Bell, but he could develop into one of the better hitters in baseball if power goes from balls in play flying off his bat to balls flying out of the park.
KH – Last year, the switch-hitting outfielder became a switch-hitting first baseman. While Bell’s average remained stellar and his strikeout to walk ratio (1:1) was impeccable, he didn’t generate much power. This could become problematic for him as he prepares to fill Pittsburgh’s perpetual hole at first.
MB – Bell’s floor is now a starting RF who sits against tough LHP. His ceiling is an everyday middle of the order 1B who can sub in the corners.
KC – Power is tantalizing, but has not shown up in game action yet. Great K/BB numbers and strong hit tool. Defense is extremely rough at 1B.
1. Tyler Glasnow (RHP, 22)
KC – Has all the makings of a low-end #1/high-end #2 with his dominant fastball delivered from his gigantor 6-8″ frame, plus knee buckling curveball. Could see PGH in July.
MB – I saw Tyson Ross as a comp for him. That’s OK but his ceiling is so high. The Pirates and their patient approach will get the most out of him which is going to be special.
KH – For several years, the Pirates have invested heavily in young projectable high school pitchers. Most of them have flamed out, except Glasnow. The righty boasts two plus pitches, a fastball that touches 100 MPH and a devastating curve, and is poised for a midseason call up to The Show after he works out some kinks in Triple A Indianapolis.
SD – Glasnow is an excellent prospect with a great fastball/curveball combo and some control issues. He strikes a lot of guys out but he also gets hit pretty hard at times, too.
Join us late? Here are are the links to the rest of the rankings!
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Continuing with our trade value rankings of the Pirates organization, today we’ll look at #13 to #8. You can read the primer and #25-21 and numbers #20-14 to catch up.
In today’s rankings you’ll start to question whether or not I’ve been drinking too much, but let me defend with some facts.
This offseason 30 year old David Price signed a deal that pays him 7 years at $31M a year AND has an player opt-out after three years so he can get back out in the market.
Also this offseason Zack Grienke used his opt out clause to get out of his contract with the Dodgers and sign a contract with the DBacks. The contract will pay him $34M a year for the six seasons lasting from his 32 year old season through his 37 year old season.
J.A. Happ -3/$36M… Cueto… Samarzdzija ..etc.etc etc.
Then you get a player like Alex Gordon who is a rock solid, strong offensive and defensive player and he “only” gets 4/$72.
What I’m trying to say is the premium on good starting pitching has never been higher and the prospects ranked higher (or lower) than you’d guess has a lot to do with this effect.
On to the rankings:
13. Yeudy Garcia (23, A+/AA)
6.5 years of control Trade Value Score – 82.8
Who-y is Yeudy? That’s what I bet a bunch of you are saying, and I said the same thing last spring when I started hearing about this stud pitcher throwing in the South Atlantic League.
Yeudy Garcia was a “late sign” out of the Dominican Republic back in the 2013 at the old age of 20. Normally prospects are signed before they finish puberty and this guy could almost drink by the time Rene Gayo inked him. He had a good season in the Dominican Summer League in 2014 but nothing that would make you think he’d come stateside and dominate… but that’s what he did.
In 2015 Garcia dominated the South Atlantic League in 124 innings and went from an interesting name to an interesting prospect. Baseball America rated Garcia as the 9th best SAL prospect in a year where the league was stacked with prospects.
Baseball America’s JJ Cooper (who’s also a rabid Steeler fan) wrote Garcia’s prospect writeup and mentioned Garcia’s lively 93-96 mph fastball, work ethic/demeanor and plus but inconsistent slider. In an organization that has the most fastball emphasis around this sounds like some great qualities.
Garcia turned 23 in October so the Pirates might consider an abbreviated stop in Bradenton at High A ball and getting him to Altoona by mid-season. If the Pirates consider him a bullpen piece he could be in the ML bullpen by next year, but I think they will exhaust him as a starter first and mid-2017 or 2018 would make more sense.
12. Elias Diaz (25, AAA)
6.5 years of control Trade Value Score – 82.8
I’d be surprised if you haven’t heard a lot about Elias Diaz by now. Diaz has been heralded defensively his whole way through the minors, but he didn’t break out offensively until 2014 when he was in Altoona.
Diaz is one of a couple Pirates prospects that came from Venezuela. He was signed at 17 and spent his first summer in the Venezuelan summer league. After coming stateside, he struggled offensively for his first three seasons even repeating Low A in West Virginia. The Pirates know to be patient with catchers, especially ones with Diaz’s skill. He turned the ship around in High A in 2013 and was named the best defensive catcher in the Eastern League by Baseball America in 2014 while hitting .328/.378/.445.
Baseball America bestowed an even bigger award naming him the recipient of the Captain’s Catcher award for the best defensive catcher in the minors.
Another thing worth noting with Diaz is the fact that he crushes LHP. Diaz had a strong .271/.317/.500 line in 105 PA’s against LHP in ’15 buffering his .268/.332/.329 in 260 PA’s against RHP. If Diaz comes up in 2016 it will probably be due to injury, making him a nice platoon candidate against LHP’s with no need to worry about his defense.
11. Chad Kuhl (23, AAA)
6.5 years of control Trade Value Score – 82.8 
Chad Kuhl might be another one where you say “who?” especially if you’re used to getting all the prospect news from the national guys.
I noticed Kuhl in 2013 when the Pirates skipped him over low A ball and sent him right from short season to Bradenton. Normally this is a sign of a prospect they think is on the fast track (Justin Wilson, Adrian Sampson) and for a pitcher it probably means he has good fastball command… which the numbers back up.
Kuhl’s fastball bumped up a step this year at AA (touching 97 while sitting at 94) and he was able to control it better than most. I think he could enter into a big league bullpen tomorrow and be a nice asset but the Bucs have other ideas.
Kuhl moved up the ladder so fast that he’s not even on the 40 man roster yet, meaning he can hang out in AAA, work on his stuff and not burn any options, i.e. like having a 41 man roster. The thing is his stuff is ready right now… but the roster flexibility is more important which makes his trade value even higher.
10. Alen Hanson (23, AAA/MLB)
6.5 years of control Trade Value Score – 82.8
When I look at a player and try to assess whether they can play in the majors I start with defense. Alen Hanson is a borderline Major League shortstop defensively, meaning he’s probably an above average third and second baseman and could even possibly play center field. So “check” — Hanson is fine there.
Then you assess whether you think he could hit a level appropriate for his position. If Hanson was still a shortstop this bar could be lower but let’s look at him as a 2nd baseman.
If you look at full season batting average and home runs Hanson doesn’t look too studly, but if you start breaking out splits Hanson begins to shine. Hanson hits better LH against RH pitching with a .270/.332/.405 line in 330 plate appearances… not to dismiss his 35 SBs.
So in an infield with the RH Kang at 3B, the RH Mercer at short and the RH Harrison at 2B, with the RH Sean Rodriguez as the primary backup, wouldn’t it be nice to have a LH middle infielder that could come up and give them a break against some RHP’s? Hanson is a nice find and his time has come.
9. Austin Meadows (21, AA)
6.5 years of control Trade Value Score – 85.7
We’ve been talking about Meadows for a few years now and he still can’t legally drink a beer… if they even card him in his home state of Georgia.
Meadows was the gift given to us when Mark Appel didn’t sign and looks like a nice find with the ninth spot in the 2013 draft. He made his way all the way to AA by last September. I didn’t get to scout him in person yet, but that will be on the agenda for 2016.
I’ve tweeted with the aforementioned JJ Cooper about Meadows and he says the thoughts of Meadows needing to leave center field for a corner are inaccurate as Meadows plays a fine center. I also tweeted with Eno Sarris about Meadows during the Arizona Fall League and Sarris said he has an “80 body” which we’ve heard before.
I’ll be anxious to see if his physique changes when he shows up to Altoona as I’ve watched Josh Bell and Willy Garcia throw some serious bulk on between A+ and AA. If Meadows looks similar I’ll guess CF is still the plan and if he adds to that 6’3″ frame I’ll assume a corner is more likely.
8. Nick Kingham (24, AAA)
6.5 years of control Trade Value Score – 88.9
Kingham would be the tallest member of the Blue Man Group
So far the Pirates 2010 draft class has had 16 starts made in the majors and zero from the two prize arms of Nick Kingham and Jameson Taillon. Brandon Cumpton has 15 starts and Casey Sadler has one. The ironic thing is that all four of the pitchers mentioned have now had Tommy John surgery.
Kingham was signed for $485,000 as an overslot sign with all the Bucs could cobble together after paying large bonuses to Taillon and Stetson Allie.
Kingham, which autocorrects to Kingdom more than I’d like, did the elite high school pitcher track by only spending one year in short season ball and moving directly to West Virginia in 2012. He started breaking out as a prospect then by having great numbers as a 20 year old in 127 innings. Kingham continued his progression and I caught one of his starts in Altoona in 2014. You could tell he was focusing on his changeup as he struggled through the first two innings, but then they gave him his curve back in the third inning and he scuffled no more.
Kingham has the height and frame to be an easy 200 inning horse, with his upside being dependent on that changeup. A #2 starter is not out of the question.
Kingham isn’t supposed to return to full workload until midseason so I’d expect him to be initially at AAA. He’d be an option to come up after the All Star game, but there might not be enough room. I know that Huntington takes the roster a day at a time but a promotion for Kingham after the Super Two deadline in 2017 might be a good bet now.
***Updated Venn Below
Tyson Ross has all the characteristics in a pitcher that the Pirates look for
Photo by Jim Cowsert/USA Today Sports
If you could design the perfect pitcher, based on what we know about the Pirates’ predilections, what would he be? Probably, it would look like this:
- Tall, preferably at least 6′-3″
- High ground ball rate — Eight starting pitchers have pitched at least 200 innings for the Pirates between 2011 and 2015. Of those eight, only two had a ground ball rate less than 48% (the typical Major League average): Jeff Karstens and James McDonald
- Above average strikeout rate — The perfect spot on the Venn diagram of pitchers is someone that has a high ground ball rate (usually indicative of ground outs) coupled with a strikeout rate, which leads to less hits and gap shots/home runs. In recent years, Francisco Liriano has been the epitome of this — a 52% ground ball rate and a 9.58 K/9 rate is the sweet spot.
- Affordable. Or you could say cheap.
With the Pirates unable to re-sign J.A. Happ, there’s a gaping hole at the #3 spot in the rotation behind Cole and Liriano. That gap is also ahead of the uninspiring back two of Charlie Morton and Jeff Locke. There are so many pitchers out on the free agent market that I believe mid to late January will lend itself to the Pirates being able to get someone on a good deal for 1 or 2 years. However, there’s a pitcher potentially out there that would a perfect pickup for the Pirates, based on the criteria listed above.
Tyson Ross of the Padres will be age-29 in 2016. The 6′-5″ Ross has two more arbitration years of team control. Last year, his ground ball rate was a staggering 61.5% with a strikeout rate of 9.73 K/9 to match. Ross is primarily a fastball-slider pitcher, with his 86 mph slider as his out pitch that grades out very well (+1.69 runs/100 pitches in 2015).
Ross is projected to earn $10M through arbitration for 2016, which is exactly what I allotted for a pitcher this offseason in our 2016 Pirate Roster and Payroll article. The question, as always, is how much is Ross worth and what will be required to obtain him in a trade?
Ross’s WAR the last three years is 1.9, 3.2, 4.4 from 2013-15. Using a 3-2-1 weighting, his average of the last three years is 3.6 WAR. Assuming $6.5M/WAR and two years of control, that is $46.8M of production. Using his $10M this year and then $15M presumed salary in 2017, that’s $25M of potential salary, giving a surplus value of $21.8M. Using our Prospect Value Article, that is a hitter ranked #26-50 in Baseball America’s Top 100 or a pitcher ranked #11-25. Naturally, there are other permutations you could get to accrue a value of $21.8M, but let’s use those.
For the Pirates, those equivalents are roughly Tyler Glasnow for the pitcher or Austin Meadows, maybe Josh Bell for the hitters. For me, Glasnow is the one I would want to part with the least, but he is obviously the most appealing to other teams. Many of you would not trade six years of Glasnow for two years of anyone. I’m a Flags Fly Forever guy, meaning that if the Pirates were to win a World Series in either 2016 or 2017 with Ross, I could care less what was given up for that title.
There’s a few problems, though. First is that I’m not sure if the Padres are rebuilding, reloading, or just plain going for it. After last year’s ill-fated tradeapalooza spending spree resulted in a 74-88 season, the Padres have little potential payroll flexibility and a farm system that is lacking. Which leads into the second issue. The Padres recently traded Craig Kimbrel (of the aforementioned tradeapalooza) to the Red Sox for two high-end prospects, a third interesting one, and some other dude. The hitters are probably more in the #51-100 range (Manuel Margot and Javier Guerrera), but the Pirates may have to kick in some other pieces for Ross, if the Kimbrel trade is a precedent.
Could the Pirates scale back the higher prospects and go with a Jameson Taillon-Harold Ramirez package? It’s possible, but I can’t imagine that being enough. The Padres aren’t just going to give Ross away, especially because if Ross is gone without a ready-made replacement, their rotation will just have James Shields – Andrew Cashner – Odrisamer Despaigne and a bunch of young guys fighting for spots. I suppose it’s wishful thinking to think the Padres would take Charlie Morton back in the deal to replicate the ground ball tendencies of Ross, while giving them a bridge arm for 2016.
Tyson Ross and the Pittsburgh Pirates seem like a match made in heaven. It would be the kind of win-now move that would help quell the masses already searching for pitchforks and torches, afraid that the Pirates are going cheap this offseason. Here’s hoping that Ross will be wearing out the infield grass at PNC Park with his plethora of ground balls in 2016.
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Austin Meadows didn’t have the breakthrough season you may have hoped for, but he’s still the Pirates’ top OF prospect
Photo by Cliff Welch/MiLB.com
On Monday, I broke down the Pirates’ infield prospects. Today, I’ll look at catcher and outfield. Strange bedfellows in terms of position groupings, but bedfellows out of convenience.
I’ll do this a little differently than the last one in the sense that I will separate the catchers from the outfielders, but I will mix all potential outfielders in together. The Pirates don’t seem to care who fits where, as long as they fit. Their current outfield has three center fielders and no one asks any questions. On top of that, they have a number of center field capable players in the corners currently in the minors. Players will jostle around, leaving me with little reason to break them down now.
CATCHER
1. Elias Diaz (.271/.330/.382, 712 OPS at AAA)
Diaz broke out in 2014 and while the numbers haven’t looked as sexy in 2015, he’s showing enough bat to complement his International League-best defense. Diaz may not profile as an obvious choice to carry the load in the majors, but he profiles as a solid backup capable to playing 2-3 times a week.
2. Reese McGuire (.254/.301/.294, 595 OPS at High A)
McGuire has his many defenders and, certainly, there will be some questioning my placing him second behind Diaz. However, it’s a question of proximity for me. Diaz has already been called up to the majors and his offensive tools are playing at a higher level, and at a higher level in the system.
McGuire has youth on his side and while his defense is said to be advanced, he will need to hit some to stick in the majors. His power tool is almost non-existent, while his overall hit tool is generally overrated. Sure, he puts the ball in play a lot minimizing the strikeouts. That’s a very good thing, but he doesn’t walk much and the balls he puts in play don’t find grass. That could be a function of same bad luck as his BABIP has fallen short of .285 each of the last two seasons, but it might also suggest the balls he puts in play aren’t a threat.
Again, McGuire is extremely young for his level, but the bat’s not even playing with his peers at this point. He has time to improve, but it’s difficult to get excited about the early returns. That said, he wouldn’t be the first prospect to break out in AA if he reaches that level next year, as he seems destined to repeat High A.
3. Jin-de Jhang (.292/.332/.381, 713 OPS at High A)
I considered a few players here, but I landed on Jhang who might have the highest ceiling at the plate of any catcher in the system and therefore the highest upside of all. He puts the ball in play like McGuire, but he manages to hit for average and has shown power in spurts.
OUTFIELD
With Polanco’s July uptick at the plate and his continued improvements in August, the Pirates’ outfield is beginning to look more and more like the potential toolsy pasture many dreamed on for the past couple of years. Problem is, there’s no where else to graze and a number of players still looking capable of playing there. Some of these players below will become trade bait if the current arrangement holds up. Others might be insurance if future contract talks break down.
1. Austin Meadows (.310/.360/.420, 780 OPS across two levels at High A/AA)
Meadows’ 2015 numbers aren’t sexy, but one should not overlook what he did in 2014 when he hit well at an extremely young age for the SAL. He performed relatively well in the FSL in what appears to be a down year for the league and he continued his 2015 form in the Eastern League during a short six game call-up. However, this isn’t the big step you’d have liked to see him take.
With the Pirates’ outfield looking crowded, I’d love to see the Pirates give him a shot at third base in 2016. If nothing else it will give him position flexibility and a chance to contribute in the majors for the Pirates sooner.
2. Harold Ramirez (.337/.399/.458, 857 OPS at High A)
Meadows and Ramirez are considerably closer in value for me than many people might consider. He’s having a lights out season that included a standout performance against stronger competition in the Pan-American games. I kept waiting for his FSL numbers to come down to earth and they didn’t. A 20-year old with an .850 OPS in High A have a high success rate. Ramirez’s concern is his inability to stay healthy — just 49 games in 2014 and 80 games in 2015.
3. Willy Garcia (.275/.314/.431, 745 OPS across two levels at AA/AAA)
Garcia’s always been a toolsy player for Pirates fans to dream on, but his crazy strikeout rate caused us to temper expectations. It was still high in 2015, but it’s manageable. He hit for high average early in Altoona, but no power. The power slowly returned after an adjustment period in Indy, showing an all around game we’ve seen little of in the past.
4. Michael Suchy (.275/.362/.441, 803 OPS at Low A)
Suchy, like his 2014 draft mate Jordan Luplow, is quietly rising through the Pirates’ prospects ranks. In a system generally lacking power, Suchy’s at least got some. He’s a little old for the SAL and is the first player that I’ve mentioned that can’t at least play center in a pinch.
5. Keon Broxton (.273/.357/.438, 795 across two levels at AA/AAA)
I didn’t give much thought to Broxton last season, but his modest power, his speed and his base running skills are enticing. The problem is he strikes out way too often to lead off and he’s a probable loss in the Rule 5 draft.
6. Elvis Escobar (.296/.326/.407, 733 OPS at Low A)
He’s been living in Harold Ramirez’s shadow since the day he signed. Now a level down from the guy who signed on the same day as him, Escobar’s flashing the potential he showed when he signed for a six figure bonus. He’s hitting for better average, getting on base and showing a little more pop.
7. Tito Polo (.236/.313/.328, 641 OPS at Low A)
Aside from having a fun name, Polo’s got some tools that he’s flashed at times. He had a nice start to his career stateside in the GCL, but struggled in his sophomore season.
8. Jerrick Suiter (.299/.382/.394, 776 OPS at Low A)
Suiter’s was something of a surprise for the West Virginia Power by hitting for average and OPS’ing well. He’s yet another player drafted in the last few years that puts a lot of balls in play.
9. Casey Hughston (.224/.267/.311, 578 OPS at Short-Season)
Pickings are getting slim, but I’ll trust that the Pirates see more in Hughston than the bat that struggled mightily in his first months in pro ball after being given the overslot bonus he received.
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Now that Price is on the market, is it worth it to get him?
Photo by Kim Klement/USA Today Sports
Today the Detroit Tigers announced something that many people could see coming weeks ago — they were going to “reboot” and cut their losses on the 2015 season by looking to move some of their soon-to-be free agents. The prime free agent they have is LHP David Price, who is a true #1 ace. Every team in MLB would love to have him in their rotation.
But should the Pirates try to get him by Friday’s trade deadline? I’m inclined to say ‘no’ and here’s why:
THEIR PLACE IN THE PLAYOFF RACE
Prior to the All-Star Break, the Pirates narrowed the gap to 2-1/2 games between themselves and the Cardinals for the NL Central race. But the Pirates stumbled out of the gate and the Cardinals did not, so as of this writing the Cardinals are 5 games up on the Pirates with 62 games to play. While it’s possible that the St. Louis Cardinals blow that lead (hi, 2014 Brewers!), it’s not likely that they do so.
So in effect, the Pirates are lining themselves up for another Wild Card appearance. That shouldn’t be minimized and swept under the rug. It would be the 3rd year in a row that the Pirates make the playoffs, which only 8 American League and 4 National League teams have done in the Wild Card era from 1995 to the present. The Pirates would be the 5th (and the Dodgers potentially the 6th).
As the Wild Card game is a potential one-and-done, is it worth it to expend both monetary resources and player asset resources for a two-month rental that may not even be used in the playoffs? It’s hard to see, even with how great Price is, how he would start over Gerrit Cole, potentially at home in PNC Park.
THE ACQUISITION COST
Even though Price is a two-month rental and may only be worth 2 WAR to the team that acquires him, his surface stats speak for themselves. His nearly 7 innings/start, 2.53 ERA/3.00 FIP are going to command at least two premium prospects and a mid-tier third. We’re big on surplus value here at TPOP, but even though there’s just a modest amount over his remaining $6.6M salary, the extra ‘trade deadline premium’ will come into effect for a bonafide ace.
The Tigers are weighed down by some bloated veteran contracts to Justin Verlander, Miguel Cabrera, and Victor Martinez, plus big contracts to Anibal Sanchez and Ian Kinsler. They almost are forced to keep powering through this stretch with MLB-ready players, not long-term prospects. As such, the discussion between Tigers’ GM Dave Dombrowski and Pirates’ GM Neal Huntington would start with premium pitcher, Tyler Glasnow (recently promoted to AAA).
In a perfect world, it wouldn’t be hard to envision that Dombrowski would ask for Glasnow, Jameson Taillon, and Alen Hanson. But Glasnow is almost assuredly off limits, even for a talent such as Price, just because it’s not worth giving up 6+ seasons of Glasnow (himself a low-end #1/high-end #2 type pitcher) for just two months of Price. Additionally, Taillon’s lost season may be dinging his prospect value. In 2016, he’ll be 24 years old, still in need of shaking of Tommy John rust, and not having competitively pitched in nearly two full seasons. The potential addition of Hanson would just be the straw that broke the discussion’s back.
And if Glasnow and Taillon are off the table, who are the other pitching prospects available that are MLB-ready, healthy, and appealing to Detroit? Nick Kingham is out for most of 2016. Brandon Cumpton will be returning from Tommy John mid-season, but he’s a #4. It’s hard to see Adrian Sampson commanding much attention.
Perhaps a package could be built around OF Austin Meadows, if the Tigers would be fine with a High A player as the centerpiece of a deal, and 1B/OF Josh Bell. For me, that’s a lot to give up for just two months of a player (again) that may not pitch for the Pirates in the playoffs. And while I’m fine with dealing Meadows/Bell for players at the deadline, it should be for players that are under control past 2015, at least.
THE COUNTER-ARGUMENT
The first two reasons were built around the viewpoint that the Pirates have a 50-50 shot at winning the Wild Card game. But what if they do win it and advance to the NL Divisional Series? Wouldn’t David Price be a huge asset?
Of course he would. The bar for any pitcher potentially acquired at the non-waiver July deadline or even by the August deadline should be this one question — would this pitcher start over any of Gerrit Cole, A.J. Burnett, and Francisco Liriano in the playoffs? With the way scheduling happens, you really only need three starters in the playoffs, maybe a fourth pitcher one time.
There is value in the Pirates acquiring a lower-wattage pitcher so that they can upgrade over Morton and/or Locke for the remainder of the regular season, but I wouldn’t want to waste the few premium, healthy trade chips we have on a guy that wouldn’t displace one of the top 3 pitchers.
David Price, obviously, would displace either Burnett or Liriano for a playoff run. Burnett has shown signs of regressing from his unsustainable start to the season in his last two starts, giving up 11 runs in 11.2 innings pitched. It’s possible that some of the pixie dust is wearing off and he may not be as dominant down the stretch. Perhaps Price would shift Liriano out of the playoff rotation if Hurdle didn’t want two lefty starters for whatever reason.
A playoff rotation in the NLDS of Cole-Price-Burnett/Liriano would be fearsome and stack up against whatever the Dodgers, Giants, Cubs, Nationals, Cardinals, or Mets would potentially throw out there. But the calculus behind whether to game giving up significant assets is too much of a gamble for my tastes.
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The loss of Taillon in 2015 affected the Major team in terms of depth and trading power.
Photo by Bill Gentry/MiLB.com
If you currently spend $2.99 a month to hear about how great a 21st round pick can be in five years, this article may upset you. I’m not going to sugarcoat how poor this year has been for the Pirates’ minor league system. Coming into the year, Baseball America ranked their farm 7th overall; I personally put them at 4th. The reasons for the downfall are myriad.
INJURIES
This is as good a place to start as any. Injuries started early for the Pirates, as Brandon Cumpton succumbed to Tommy John surgery in March. Cumpton was nothing special, probably a #4 starter as a ceiling, but he was the start of the injury parade. In early May, Nick Kingham fell victim to Tommy John. Those two were legitimate options to be called up as depth options for Pittsburgh in 2015. Promising 2014 draftee C/OF Kevin Krause went under the knife himself for elbow issues.
The kicker, however, is the sad tale of Jameson Taillon. After undergoing Tommy John in April 2014, it was thought that Taillon would be fit enough to open the 2015 season in AAA Indianapolis, scrape the rust off, then come up in late June after the Super 2 deadline had passed. Well, Taillon didn’t even make it to a team until mid-June, itself a sign that his TJ recovery was not going well, and then was diagnosed with an inguinal hernia that will keep him out the remainder of the 2015 season before he even pitched.
INEFFECTIVENESS
Tony Sanchez has apparently demonstrated to the Pirates that he’s unable to defensively be a starter in the Majors. Fellow catcher Elias Diaz has put up a 700 OPS in Triple A this year. Luis Heredia continues to slide off the radar of being a prospect (47 IP, 5.89 ERA, 18 BB, 22 K).
It’s difficult to say that Josh Bell is disappointing (.312 AVG, 811 OPS), but his lack of power (4 HR, .119 Isolated Slugging Percentage, .140 is minimum you really want) is odd. It’s hard to see him being a valid Major League starting 1B with that lack of power. When 5′-10″ Alen Hanson is out-homering you, that’s not a good sign.
Fellow 2013 1st round draft picks, Reese McGuire and Austin Meadows, have both been disappointing for different reasons. McGuire has an empty bat that portends no power (.270 AVG, 9 extra base hits in 259 AB’s, 622 OPS), while Meadows (.300 AVG, 759 OPS) has been underwhelming with little power (.094 ISO) of his own.
2014’s draft class has been a no-show this year. SS Cole Tucker has slap-hit his way to an empty .290 batting average but with a 682 OPS. Sure, he has 21 shiny stolen bases, but there’s no power there. And if he grows into some power, he’ll probably outgrow the shortstop position and his bat won’t be enough at another position. The trio of high school pitchers — Mitch Keller, Trey Supak, and Gage Hinsz — have combined for a whopping total of 20 innings in 2015, with Keller not even pitching yet this year. All three are at short-season Bristol, which is disappointing in its own right, as previous high-end high school pitchers were challenged at the more advanced short-season New York-Penn League (the new West Virginia affiliate). This year has been a complete lost year for all three of them.
INSUFFICIENT DRAFT CLASSES
The 2008 draft has been Neal Huntington’s most successful draft class to date. The ascendancy of the Pirates to perennial playoff contender has been augmented by Pedro Alvarez (1st round), Jordy Mercer (3th round), and Justin Wilson (5th round), who was flipped this past offseason in a 1-for-1 deal for Francisco Cervelli. Getting two starters and one bullpen guy out of a single draft is a success; typically, if you can get 1 starter and 1 bench/bullpen guy that’s good.
Since then, the drafts have not directly produced much talent. Yes, it takes at least 4-5 years to properly assess a class, but it’s not too early to make projections on some of them:
- 2009 — Terrible. No direct major contributions. Tony Sanchez (1st) doesn’t have a future here because of his defense. Pirates have used picks in trades like Vic Black (supp 1st), Brooks Pounders (2nd), Colton Cain (8th), Brock Holt (9th), Aaron Baker (11th).
- 2010 — Up in the air. Most production from a healthy pick is from 25th rounder Casey Sadler, which is both positive and sad. Jameson Taillon (1st), Nick Kingham (4th), and Brandon Cumpton (9th) can sway this pendulum greatly if they return healthy in 2016. This was the draft where the Pirates gambled on signing some premium high school pitchers and missed — Jason Hursh (6th), Austin Kubitza (7th), Dace Kime (8th), and Zack Weiss (10th) all didn’t sign.
- 2011 — Success. Thanks to Gerrit Cole (1st) becoming an ace, even if Pirates don’t get anything else out of this draft, I’m happy — setting aside my 1 starter, 1 bench/bullpen theory. Tyler Glasnow (5th) seems on the verge of joining Cole as a front-line starter. Josh Bell (2nd) is overrated, in my opinion, but could contribute. Jason Creasy (8th) and Clay Holmes (9th) could also be contributors in a couple of years.
- 2012 — Could get interesting. Mark Appel (1st) left a gaping hole when he didn’t sign, but the Pirates are getting some potential out of down draft picks like Adrian Sampson (5th) and Max Moroff (16th). Overall, I don’t think draft this will produce enough.
- 2013 — Odd draft. Austin Meadows (1st) has hit, but not much power. Reese McGuire (1st, for Mark Appel not signing) has the makings of a bust. Blake Taylor (2nd), Buddy Borden (7th), and Shane Carle (10th) have already been used in trades. Adam Frazier (6th) could be a bench guy and Chad Kuhl (9th) could be a middle reliever.
- 2014–2015 — Way too early to judge, but not looking good. This is the worst part — the Pirates have had back-to-back drafts with little to no upside picks. The 2015 draft resembles a mid-era Dave Littlefield draft in terms of lack of upside and appears to be shaping up as a wasted effort (yes…I’m calling it after a whopping one month, it’s that bad). Getting little out of consecutive drafts would be a terrible outcome for a team that needs to rely on the farm system for sustainability.
HOW THIS AFFECTS JULY TRADES
Unlike last year when the Pirates were riding high on industry perceptions of certain players, this year the Pirates do not have any high-end prospect performing at peak level, as even Tyler Glasnow was injured for a month this year. As a result, they can’t sell the allure and upside like in years past. Every one of their top 6 or 7 “blue chip” guys is either injured, coming off an injury, or just plain have had a down year.
So when Neal Huntington enters trade discussions, he’ll have to work extra hard to sell opposing GM’s on taking these damaged goods. Or, even worse, he risks getting sandbagged by an opposing GM who is feigning disinterest in the Pirates’ prospects, all the while trying to squeeze an extra player into the potential deal to make up for the supposed drop in prospect value.
It’s time to face the facts that the Pirates’ farm system has peaked. Setting aside Tyler Glasnow, all 6′-8″ of him, there are no more high-impact prospects like McCutchen, Marte, Cole, and Polanco (he’ll get there). There are some complementary pieces like Hanson, Bell, Kingham, and Meadows, but I don’t foresee any of them being frontliners. Taillon, for me, is downgraded to a mid-rotation arm with the lost season of 2015 and one TJ surgery under his belt already. He’ll be 24 next season and in need of AAA time to make up for 2015 — his clock is ticking.
The Pirates can make a play for any player they want on the market. They could get Cueto, Hamels, Chapman, or whatever high value target comes on line. But they may have to overpay just a touch more in 2015’s midseason than they would have in the offseason leading up to it.
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Mitchell Hansen checks off a lot of boxes the Pirates like to see
Photo via Power Showcase
Figuring out the Pirates 1st round draft pick during the 20 year slump wasn’t always that hard. When they were picking 2nd or 4th or 1st, it was a lot easier to guess who the Bucs would take than when they were picking 22nd like they did last year.
After the last two years’ drafts, it’s pretty obvious that there is a method to the Pirates’ madness. I’ll break down some of the factors and give you my prediction.
“Were you a spring or summer baby?”
In a lot of areas of the country, parents are holding their sons back in school so they are bigger than their classmates when it’s time for athletics. The Pirates would rather you do the opposite.
In the 2013 draft, the Pirates drafted Austin Meadows (5/3/1995) and Reese McGuire (3/2/1995) with their two first rounds picks and Blake Taylor with their second round pick (8/17/95). All three were among the youngest in the draft. Taylor is so young that the 2013 season was his “17 year old season” using the standard MLB age cutoff of July 1st. (Taylor was traded for Ike Davis… ugh)
The Pirates continued their trend of drafting players much younger than their contemporaries in 2014. Cole Tucker (7/3/96) was the 8th youngest player in the entire draft. Tucker drew ire of the local media but I loved the pick due to his age. He was basically a high school junior.
The Pirates’ 2014 draft continued the young trend in subsequent rounds drafting the youngest college player in the draft in Taylor Gushue (12/19/93) in the 4th round, and the 3rd youngest college player in outfielder Jordan Luplow (09/26/1993) in the 3rd round.
So in the top 4 rounds for the 2013 and 2014 drafts the Pirates have drafted 6 of the youngest players with the combined 10 picks. Also add in the very young college pitcher John Sever (07/26/1993) who’s performed well in his first year in the system.
Guess who was one of the youngest high school pitchers drafted in the 2011 MLB draft? None other than top prospect Tyler Glasnow (8/23/93), who was 17 when drafted.
As you can see draft age is definitely something the Pirates are considering a lot. During a recent Q&A with Neal Huntington, TPOP’s Kevin Creagh asked him about how age factors into the Pirates’ draft strategy. Huntington said, “A 17 year old has extra upside. We feel like we’re getting more room for development, but it’s not a driving factor in our decisions. For college players, we’re looking more for physical and mental maturation.”
Skinny with Long Levers
Something more subjective than birthdate that seems to be following a trend for the Pirates is body type.
If you look at some of the last several drafts you’d see body types that looked similar. Austin Meadows, Josh Bell and Cole Tucker all had very similar builds when they were drafted; tall and thin with long arms and room for growth. They more resemble a shooting guard in basketball than a traditional baseball build of something like Cutch.
This allows room for the youngster to fill in as he gets older. If you paid attention during spring training, or follow the Curve, you can see that Josh Bell has thrown on considerably more muscle during the offseason. Willy Garcia did the same thing in the winter of ’13. Having frames that can add projection seems to be another trait the Pirates are looking for.
Prediction for the 19th pick
In addition to “age projection” and physical projection, talent in the middle of the baseball field (catcher, SS and CF) seems to be a Pirate priority, as well as high baseball IQ and character. All of these characteristics drive me to one guy for the Pirates pick at #19:
Mitchell Hansen – CF – Plano Texas High School
First, Hansen just turned 18 making him one of the youngest players in the draft. He’s a high character and high IQ player with a commit to Stanford. Hansen is athletic as he also plays quarterback and wide receiver for the football team and if you look at his 6’4″ 200lb frame you can see the room for growth.
Hansen reminds some of the old Blue Jays and Dodgers OF Shawn Green, which would be a nice find at the 19th pick.
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When will Taillon debut in Pittsburgh in 2015?
Photo via Inside Pitch
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It’s prospect season! That’s the time of year between the end of the winter meetings and when pitchers and catchers report dedicated to organization ranking lists and Top 100’s. It’s down time for everyone but the nerdiest of fans. We at The Point of Pittsburgh decided to join the fun. Where most lists stop at ten or thirty, we’re going all the way up to forty making ours the nerdiest list around.
Each of us completed our individual lists and then aggregated them into a complete list. Today, we’ll look at the top ten. Ages in parentheses are as of July 1st, 2015. We projected what level the player will spend the majority of the 2015 season, as well. In case you missed them, here are some links:
10. Harold Ramirez (20) OF, A+
Kevin Creagh – Has all the tools to be a starting OF, but I am a sizeist. It’s hard to see his 5’10” frame (yes, I know Cutch is the same height) starting for the Pirates long-term. Probable trade chip in the future
Steve DiMiceli – I think people overlook what he’s done at his age. He’s a potential Five Tool centerfielder, and even though you wouldn’t know it from the Pirates organization, they don’t grow on trees.
Michael Bradley – Potential 4 tool guy (minus the power). Injuries robbed him of time in ’14 but he’s still very young.
9. Elias Diaz (24) C, AAA/MLB
Michael – A plus backup catcher floor with a ceiling to be an average starter. Diaz breakout in ’14 gives the “FranChrisco” tandem some depth and provides a bridge to McGuire.
Steve – Has the defensive makings of a solid back up catcher, but I’d like to see the bat play a little higher at AAA before I’d call him the heir apparent for the starting catching role as some presume.
Kevin –If he continues to progress at AAA in 2015, Diaz could be 2016’s opening day catcher. Bat could be above-avg for position
8. Adrian Sampson (23) RHP, AAA
Steve – Sampson is another great example of why you shouldn’t lose your crap on a player when the Pirates move them quickly. Looking like a great back-of-rotation innings eater, but I bet he’ll reach that ceiling somewhere else.
Kevin – Broke out in 2014, probably a #4 long term. Could see the Majors in 2015 down the stretch
7. Reese McGuire (20) C, A+
Kevin – Touted as catcher of the future. Defense said to be Major League ready right now, but alarming lack of power (even doubles) is a flag for me. Yes, he’s young, but it was an empty average in 2014
Steve – His solid contact skills and defense will carry him through the minors but his ceiling is Ryan Hanigan if he doesn’t develop a little pop.
Michael – When you have a player that scouts enjoy watching play defense you know you have a gem. McGuire supposedly handles pitchers like a ML vet and has hit enough to keep getting promoted. He hasn’t shown a giant platoon split yet and is crazy young for an American born player. Ceiling is HIGH but his bat could fail.
6. Alen Hanson (22) 2B, AAA
Steve – I still have questions about whether or not the bat will translate to the majors, but he still has upside even at second base if he gets it together.
Michael – While he might be lower on everyone else’s list, the fact that he could contribute TODAY gets him this high. He’s super young, doesn’t have a large platoon split, could play some short and has JHay potential.
Kevin – Brings a nice blend of power/speed to 2B position. Attitude concerns lead me to believe that Pirates would move him in the right deal. Kang may have been a hedge for such a move
5. Josh Bell (22) RF/1B, AA/AAA
Kevin –If the power develops this year, could be 2016’s 1B. Move to 1B dings his value a touch, so #5 feels right
Michael – Probably the lowest you’ll see Bell ranked. His hit tool is OK, his defense is OK, his patience and power is OK for a corner. He’s not super young anymore. He’s an good prospect that could turn into a Nick Swisher type or a switch hitting Travis Snider.
Steve – While his second half power outage was concerning, Bell makes for a rare combination of pop and plate discipline. He could be heading towards that high ceiling of his.
4. Nick Kingham (23) RHP, AAA/MLB
Michael – While he’s a pitcher and has some of the same drawbacks that pitchers do, his risk is less. First, he’s succeeded at AA and a little at AAA. Second, he has the command and control it’s just a question of whether his stuff is good enough.
Steve – There is no such thing as a safe pitching prospect, but my goodness does Kingham feel like it. He likely won’t be more than a 3 but his ability to eat innings will play anywhere in the rotation.
Kevin – Solid #3 for me, also on verge of Majors
3. Austin Meadows (20) OF, A+
Kevin – Dynamic talent that was beset by hamstring injury in 2014. If he performs as expected, should be #2 on this list next year behind Glasnow
Steve – Meadows is still so far away, but if he can stay healthy while mashing A+ pitching as a third year pro, I suspect he’ll earn elite status.
Michael – The ceiling (5 tool star), the fact he can stick in CF and mainly the fact that he’s not a pitcher vault him up to #1 (for me).
2. Tyler Glasnow (21) RHP, AA
Michael – He’s number two mainly due to the fact that very few pitchers reach their ceiling or stay healthy. Gerrit Cole was more talented than him and still is only a 2 WAR player so far.
Kevin – May have higher upside than Taillon, but control still a slight concern, plus needing to prove it at AA. Enviable problem to choose between them
Steve – Glasnow has the highest ceiling in the system, but I still have concerns with his floor thanks to control. I think he’s a major leaguer but will he start?
1. Jameson Taillon (23) RHP, AAA/MLB
Kevin – Still a #2 level pitcher for me, on verge of Majors, fastball-curve combo should make him AJ Burnett
Steve – Tommy John surgery doesn’t even scare me anymore. Taillon looked like he could jump into a major league rotation as a solid 4 when I saw him pitch in Altoona. He’s a great combination of ceiling and floor.
Michael -Tommy John and the lack of a third plus pitch overcome the makeup, the body and his stellar appearance as a Canadian pitcher in the World Baseball Classic.
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J-Hay can play all day…..at many positions. Photo credit – Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
Money owed, years of service, age, position scarcity, pitchers vs. hitters, etc. etc… it all matters in assessing value.
Continuing with our trade value rankings of the Pirates organization. You can read the primer and #25-21, #20-#16 and #15-#11 to catch up. Age in parentheses is the player’s age as of the standard July 1st cutoff date. On to the rankings:
10. Jameson Taillon (23) – AAA/MLB – SP – 6 years of control, pre-arbitration
Seems like we’ve been talking about Taillon for a long time. Being a 1st round draft pick made him a Pirate household name a lot earlier than other prospects. We got a glimpse of his ceiling in the World Baseball Classic in 2013 when he stuck out Ryan Braun. Taillon has two things holding back his value. First, he’s still looking for that third plus pitch to go with his plus fastball and plus curve. The second is obviously the Tommy John surgery in 2014. Even with those two detriments his value is extremely high. The Pirates might have a 3 WAR/yr pitcher for the next 6+ years and that would return a bundle in a trade.
9. Tyler Glasnow (21) – AA – SP – 6 years of control, pre-arbitration
Tyler Glasnow reminds me of a Pirate prospect from a long time ago named Chad Hermanson. Hermanson was a SS prospect that hit 104 HRs and stole 74 bases in four seasons as a 18-21 year old from A to AAA. Hermanson did have glaring weaknesses, though, as his defense was too poor at SS and his K’s were too high. Now while Glasnow is a pitcher and not a SS, he has the same type of eye popping stats that are causing all in baseball to talk of his considerable upside. Glasnow’s K/9 of 13.3 and 11.3 in ’13 and ’14 would be envied by relievers and are unreal as a starter. The problem is that his lack of control makes him far from a sure thing. While Glasnow might find the swings and misses harder to come by as he ascends from AA up to the Majors, the #1 starter potential and the 6+ years of control make him him one of the Pirates most valuable pieces even though he has yet to pitch above A ball.
8. Austin Meadows (20) – High A – OF – 6 years of control, pre-arbitration
I don’t know one Pirates prospect ranking where Meadows is ranked ahead of Glasnow, but as far as trade value many clubs would rather have Meadows. First, Meadows is not a pitcher and if you read the TPOP piece on prospect values you’d see how much more pitching prospects bust than hitting prospects. Meadows was a great high school prospect and was in the talk to go #1 overall in the 2013 draft when he “fell” to #9 and the Pirates. Meadows is a true 5 tool prospect with many thinking he can hit for power and stay in CF with above average patience and 10-15 SBs. If you’re looking for a Pirate comp think Nate McLouth in ’08, which is a valuable player for 6+ cheap years.
7. Josh Bell (22) – AA – 1B/OF – 6 years of control, pre-arbitration
While Meadows may have the higher upside than Bell, Meadows is two levels lower, thus making Bell more likely to get to the show. If this were the mid 90’s, Bell would be in the discussion to come north from spring training as his bat is almost Major League ready and he’d fit in well defensively in PNC’s RF. But the Pirates already have three CFs in the outfield and Bell will shift to 1B (at least to get reps) and stay at AA for now. Bell’s bat is what people like, as he is patient, strikes out infrequently and is a switch hitter. He hits better left-handed, but he has a lot more reps than right-handed, so there is promise that it might come around. Bell, like Cole Tucker, is very mature for his age and has done well in the minors despite missing most of ’12 with a torn meniscus.
6. Josh Harrison (27) – ML – IF/OF – 3 years of control, 1st time through arbitration
Harrison might have come out of nowhere in 2014 for some casual fans, but most Pirate fans have noticed Harrison’s cameos the last few years. The really hardcore fans who knew Harrison’s minor league stats might not be surprised by his 2014 as he had shown a propensity for hitting as he made his way through the minors. What surprised many, including myself, was how well he played defensively in both the infield and outfield in 2014. Harrison is a plus defender at 3B, can play an average RF and 2B, and even a passable SS. His leadoff type bat, his position flexibility and his three years of cheap control make him a great asset.
Tomorrow — Final Installment with #5 to #1
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