Francisco Cervelli’s need may be going up with news of Elias Diaz’s injury.
Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty
News has started to percolate out that “catcher of the future until the other catcher of the future is ready” Elias Diaz is being shut down with persistent elbow soreness. Although not as prevalent, catchers get Tommy John surgery, too. Case in point is Christian Vasquez of the Boston Red Sox, who underwent TJ surgery last April and missed the entire 2015 season. He is just now working his way back into form for the Red Sox. Closer to the organization, Pirates’ minor leaguer Kevin Krause had the same surgery performed and missed all of the 2015 season, as well.
As of this writing, nothing has been formally announced, but all indications are strongly trending towards Elias Diaz needing to go under the knife. If that’s the case, his 2016 season will be done and the recovery will extend into 2017. This isn’t good for the Pirates for a wide variety of reasons. The first is that the 25-year old Diaz will not be ready for a taste of the Majors until at least next year, when he will be an untested 26-year old. He received a September call-up last season, but only had a grand total of 2 at-bats in 2 games, so I guess the Pirates just wanted him to get acclimated to the dugout, clubhouse, and which pile of gum was Clint Hurdle’s, so don’t touch that pile.
Francisco Cervelli is set to become a free agent after this year. With the scarcity of quality free agents in general and with catchers, specifically, Cervelli will be in high demand. That will leave the Pirates with only Chris Stewart as a ready-made option to catch, thanks to his micro-extension that will pay him $1.4M in 2017 (with a $1.5M club option in 2018). Stewart is a steady backup that won’t embarrass you with the bat (85 wRC+ in 2015) or the glove (24% caught stealing, 1 passed ball in 2015), but he’s not a starter. And to be fair, even if Diaz comes back, he is a complete question mark at this point. The Pirates, if they choose to not make a play for Cervelli, will have to pursue some other 1 year stopgap option to pair with Stewart as Diaz works his way back to health.
The kicker to all of this is that Cervelli wants to stay here. He even named his own price, as if he was buying hotel tickets online, at 3 years/$39M. Steve speculated on a Cervelli extension, prior to the start of the 2016 season, that would have been a 3 year/$32M deal from 2017-19. So Cervelli’s true contract is probably somewhere between 3/$32M and 3/$39M. One obstacle to this potential extension is that the 2017 season would represent Cervelli’s age-31 season, which means that a three year deal would take the Pirates over their personal rubicon of the age-32 decision point. They have (most likely) done scads of research on this topic, probably more than we even did on our aging study, so I have to yield to their decision-making. It’s probably even scarier when looking at the catcher position past age-32.
But I would think about making an exception in this case. The free agent market for catchers is threadbare. Could the Pirates really go to the well known as the Yankees for yet another catcher (Russ Martin, Chris Stewart)? It’s too bad John Ryan Murphy was traded to the Twins this offseason, as he would have been the logical Yankee catcher to obtain next. The catcher position, in general, is fairly down around MLB, so teams are more apt to hang on to them nowadays.
Last year, Cervelli delivered a 119 wRC+ (19% more offense than league average) and a 3.8 WAR campaign, displaying excellent receiving and game-calling skills. During this recent run of winning seasons and playoff appearances, the Pirates have had the luxury of a quality two-way catcher. It would be disappointing to have to take a step back and revert back to a no-hit, 8th spot in lineup type of catcher.
I’d like to think that the Pirates are in wait-and-see mode with Cervelli, just to ensure that last year was not a complete fluke. With the resounding start to his season (.370 avg/.486 obp/.481 slg, 161 wRC+), it appears as if Cervelli is primed to continue his strong play. As they process this information about Elias Diaz, it wouldn’t surprise me to hear about a mid-season extension somewhere in the 3 yr/$36M range for Francisco Cervelli. That will ensure that he’ll be here for the 2017 season (which may represent the last hurrah for this edition of the Pirates) and help transition the Pirates to whatever “catcher of the future” is being hyped up next.
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You pretty much have to look for Taillon’s face on the side of a milk carton these past two years.
Today we round out TPOP’s top 40 rankings. Special thanks once again to all of our participants. I think we provoked some thoughts while we also got to highlight how much is still in the system.
Kevin Creagh (KC) – TPOP
Michael Bradley (MB) – TPOP
Kurt Hackimer (KH) – winitforus.com and soon-to-be TPOP writer
Steve DiMiceli (SD) – TPOP
10. Ke’Bryan Hayes (3B, 19)
KH – Hayes, Pittsburgh’s other first round pick, is also a good bet to stick around on the left side of the infield because of his strong arm and keen baseball instincts. The 19 year old son of former Pirate Charlie Hayes is more muscular than most teenage prospects and has a swing that has already warranted Top 100 Prospects consideration from several publications.
KC – Good lineage, had strong debut in 2015, albeit in GCL. Anxious to see his full-season debut this year.
MB – Hayes is one of the reasons that I’m hoping Melancon and Cervelli get us some comp picks. Hayes had a great first season and looks to have some serious upside. I’m assuming he’ll be in Charleston this summer and I might have to take a trip down to watch him.
SD – I already bought in on Carloz Munoz’s rookie ball performance. Hayes’s sandwich pedigree should have him higher for me, but I’m in wait and see mode.
9. Kevin Newman (SS, 22)
KH – An already polished product of the historic Cape Cod League, Newman was considered as a safe selection for the Pirates at the 19 spot in the draft. He has line drive power, can hit for average, and has a good chance to stick at shortstop. The last part is critical because the Pirates are thin at short, which should allow Newman to rapidly climb the organizational ranks.
SD – Not the pro debut you’d like to see, but he could provide an average or better hit tool and stick at short. That’s not a bad combination.
MB – I’m totally swayed by Keith Law’s conviction to his top prospect status. Law swears he’s a sure fire ML shortstop with an all fields approach with the bat.
KC – Low upside college SS was 2015 1st round pick. Bat appears to have no power in it.
8. Elias Diaz (C, 25)
SD – At the very least, Diaz should know where to sit in the dug out to get the best view of the game following his phantom call up in September. Looks like a solid backup at worst.
KC – Remains in the mix for catching work in the future for Pirates, but his bat stagnated last year in AAA. Seems more like a 50 game player than a 110 game player.
KH – Defensively, Diaz is the whole package. He’s got a strong arm, a sturdy glove, and the ability to properly manage a pitching staff. Offensively, he didn’t progress as well in 2015 as he did in his breakout 2014 campaign and probably won’t become a star. But his patience at the plate and bat control should allow him to stick around in the majors.
MB – I hear all the hype about his defense, but I think his bat is going to take a long time, if ever, to come around against good ML RHP’s. I think he’d be a great backup that plays against LHPs, but that could be Chris Stewart too and he just signed for a pittance (i.e. not that valuable).
7. Nick Kingham (RHP, 24)
KC – Out for most of 2016 after Tommy John surgery, but I still think he could be a #3.
MB – Maybe I blow off Tommy John surgery too much, but I think Kingham will be back and will be good. I watched him throw in Altoona and at worst he’s a Jared Hughes. At best he’s a solid #3. I’m thinking Jeff Suppan.
SD – Broken elbow and all, Kingham still has a place in the top 10. I think he could still develop into a middle of the rotation type or a back of the bullpen type.
KH– Kingham probably would have been in the majors last season if Tommy John surgery hadn’t derailed his season. The righty is on the mend and, at 6’6”/230 lbs., has that workhorse frame that could allow him to rack up some 200 inning seasons from the bottom half of the Pirates rotation.
6. Harold Ramirez (OF, 21)
KH – Ramirez has a quick swing, strong wrists, and is able to generate lots of contact. His speed should make up for a perceived lack of power, but his thick lower half could reduce that speed advantage as he matures. He probably won’t stick at center, probably doesn’t have the arm for right. Wait. Am I just describing Jose Tabata?
KC – Injury prone, reminds me of Jose Tabata in terms of build. For me, he’s a 4th OF as I don’t think he hits enough to man a corner and not enough range for CF.
SD – Ramirez has done some impressive things playing against older competition. He had a great summer and was the only bright spot for Columbia in the PanAm games.
MB – Another guy who I’m buying the Keith Law and Baseball Prospectus hype. They rave about his bat and that’s the most important part of an offensive player. A Melky Cabrera type could be nice in PNC.
5. Alen Hanson (2B, 23)
MB – Plus glove 2B with 30 steals and 10+ triples. His splits are much better against RHP which is good with Mercer, Harrison, SRod and Kang now… and Frazier, Gift, Moroff and Newman in a couple years.
KH – The Pirates finally gave up on Hanson becoming a major league shortstop and moved the switch hitter to second base last season. His average hit tool is damaged by below average on-base skill and power, which may make Hanson more useful to the Pirates as a utility player rather than an everyday second baseman.
SD – Bat still hasn’t broken out in the upper levels after a great year in Low A in 2012. ISO was a bit off this season, but was one of six players who qualified in AAA under the age of 23.
KC – Seems more like a utility infielder for me at this point, but he could still see some time in PGH this year (either out of spring training as bench player or in case of injury).
4. Jameson Taillon (RHP, 24)
MB – The Pirates love makeup and this guy seems to have a lot of it. Pre-injuries he had a good fastball and a great curve. If the change is good he could be a solid #2. Or he could be a solid #2 with just the fastball and curve just like Uncle AJ Burnett.
SD – Was major league ready prior to his injury but basically having two years off isn’t going to help his stock any. The layoff likely limits him to the bullpen in Pittsburgh this year.
KH – Due to injuries, it has been two seasons since Taillon has thrown in a meaningful ballgame, but he still has that top of the rotation pedigree that the Pirates dreamed about when they drafted him. Taillon still needs to make up for lost developmental time in Triple A before he’s added to the major league rotation.
KC – After not pitching competitively for 2 years he has fallen off Top 100 lists, but I still like him as a downgraded #3 now.
3. Austin Meadows (OF, 21)
MB – I like Mark Kotsay as a low comp and Shin-Soo Choo as a high comp. Per BA he can stick in CF and per my Twitter buddy Eno Sarris he has a “80 body”. He could be a great asset or trade piece.
KC – I’m disappointed in the lack of power for a player that is probably destined to man a corner at PNC. Great hit tool, hoping he matures into more power.
KH – It’s questionable whether or not Austin Meadows will be able to stick in center field. Fortunately for the Pirates, they have three center fielders in their outfield already. If Meadows’s raw power continues to evolve into onfield pop, he could be the heir apparent to Andrew McCutchen.
SD – I think the Jay Bruce comps have stopped. Meadows has some solid contact skills, but the power needs to develop.
2. Josh Bell (1B, 23)
SD – Maybe going a little crazy here on Bell, but he could develop into one of the better hitters in baseball if power goes from balls in play flying off his bat to balls flying out of the park.
KH – Last year, the switch-hitting outfielder became a switch-hitting first baseman. While Bell’s average remained stellar and his strikeout to walk ratio (1:1) was impeccable, he didn’t generate much power. This could become problematic for him as he prepares to fill Pittsburgh’s perpetual hole at first.
MB – Bell’s floor is now a starting RF who sits against tough LHP. His ceiling is an everyday middle of the order 1B who can sub in the corners.
KC – Power is tantalizing, but has not shown up in game action yet. Great K/BB numbers and strong hit tool. Defense is extremely rough at 1B.
1. Tyler Glasnow (RHP, 22)
KC – Has all the makings of a low-end #1/high-end #2 with his dominant fastball delivered from his gigantor 6-8″ frame, plus knee buckling curveball. Could see PGH in July.
MB – I saw Tyson Ross as a comp for him. That’s OK but his ceiling is so high. The Pirates and their patient approach will get the most out of him which is going to be special.
KH – For several years, the Pirates have invested heavily in young projectable high school pitchers. Most of them have flamed out, except Glasnow. The righty boasts two plus pitches, a fastball that touches 100 MPH and a devastating curve, and is poised for a midseason call up to The Show after he works out some kinks in Triple A Indianapolis.
SD – Glasnow is an excellent prospect with a great fastball/curveball combo and some control issues. He strikes a lot of guys out but he also gets hit pretty hard at times, too.
Join us late? Here are are the links to the rest of the rankings!
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Continuing with our trade value rankings of the Pirates organization, today we’ll look at #13 to #8. You can read the primer and #25-21 and numbers #20-14 to catch up.
In today’s rankings you’ll start to question whether or not I’ve been drinking too much, but let me defend with some facts.
This offseason 30 year old David Price signed a deal that pays him 7 years at $31M a year AND has an player opt-out after three years so he can get back out in the market.
Also this offseason Zack Grienke used his opt out clause to get out of his contract with the Dodgers and sign a contract with the DBacks. The contract will pay him $34M a year for the six seasons lasting from his 32 year old season through his 37 year old season.
J.A. Happ -3/$36M… Cueto… Samarzdzija ..etc.etc etc.
Then you get a player like Alex Gordon who is a rock solid, strong offensive and defensive player and he “only” gets 4/$72.
What I’m trying to say is the premium on good starting pitching has never been higher and the prospects ranked higher (or lower) than you’d guess has a lot to do with this effect.
On to the rankings:
13. Yeudy Garcia (23, A+/AA)
6.5 years of control Trade Value Score – 82.8
Who-y is Yeudy? That’s what I bet a bunch of you are saying, and I said the same thing last spring when I started hearing about this stud pitcher throwing in the South Atlantic League.
Yeudy Garcia was a “late sign” out of the Dominican Republic back in the 2013 at the old age of 20. Normally prospects are signed before they finish puberty and this guy could almost drink by the time Rene Gayo inked him. He had a good season in the Dominican Summer League in 2014 but nothing that would make you think he’d come stateside and dominate… but that’s what he did.
In 2015 Garcia dominated the South Atlantic League in 124 innings and went from an interesting name to an interesting prospect. Baseball America rated Garcia as the 9th best SAL prospect in a year where the league was stacked with prospects.
Baseball America’s JJ Cooper (who’s also a rabid Steeler fan) wrote Garcia’s prospect writeup and mentioned Garcia’s lively 93-96 mph fastball, work ethic/demeanor and plus but inconsistent slider. In an organization that has the most fastball emphasis around this sounds like some great qualities.
Garcia turned 23 in October so the Pirates might consider an abbreviated stop in Bradenton at High A ball and getting him to Altoona by mid-season. If the Pirates consider him a bullpen piece he could be in the ML bullpen by next year, but I think they will exhaust him as a starter first and mid-2017 or 2018 would make more sense.
12. Elias Diaz (25, AAA)
6.5 years of control Trade Value Score – 82.8
I’d be surprised if you haven’t heard a lot about Elias Diaz by now. Diaz has been heralded defensively his whole way through the minors, but he didn’t break out offensively until 2014 when he was in Altoona.
Diaz is one of a couple Pirates prospects that came from Venezuela. He was signed at 17 and spent his first summer in the Venezuelan summer league. After coming stateside, he struggled offensively for his first three seasons even repeating Low A in West Virginia. The Pirates know to be patient with catchers, especially ones with Diaz’s skill. He turned the ship around in High A in 2013 and was named the best defensive catcher in the Eastern League by Baseball America in 2014 while hitting .328/.378/.445.
Baseball America bestowed an even bigger award naming him the recipient of the Captain’s Catcher award for the best defensive catcher in the minors.
Another thing worth noting with Diaz is the fact that he crushes LHP. Diaz had a strong .271/.317/.500 line in 105 PA’s against LHP in ’15 buffering his .268/.332/.329 in 260 PA’s against RHP. If Diaz comes up in 2016 it will probably be due to injury, making him a nice platoon candidate against LHP’s with no need to worry about his defense.
11. Chad Kuhl (23, AAA)
6.5 years of control Trade Value Score – 82.8 
Chad Kuhl might be another one where you say “who?” especially if you’re used to getting all the prospect news from the national guys.
I noticed Kuhl in 2013 when the Pirates skipped him over low A ball and sent him right from short season to Bradenton. Normally this is a sign of a prospect they think is on the fast track (Justin Wilson, Adrian Sampson) and for a pitcher it probably means he has good fastball command… which the numbers back up.
Kuhl’s fastball bumped up a step this year at AA (touching 97 while sitting at 94) and he was able to control it better than most. I think he could enter into a big league bullpen tomorrow and be a nice asset but the Bucs have other ideas.
Kuhl moved up the ladder so fast that he’s not even on the 40 man roster yet, meaning he can hang out in AAA, work on his stuff and not burn any options, i.e. like having a 41 man roster. The thing is his stuff is ready right now… but the roster flexibility is more important which makes his trade value even higher.
10. Alen Hanson (23, AAA/MLB)
6.5 years of control Trade Value Score – 82.8
When I look at a player and try to assess whether they can play in the majors I start with defense. Alen Hanson is a borderline Major League shortstop defensively, meaning he’s probably an above average third and second baseman and could even possibly play center field. So “check” — Hanson is fine there.
Then you assess whether you think he could hit a level appropriate for his position. If Hanson was still a shortstop this bar could be lower but let’s look at him as a 2nd baseman.
If you look at full season batting average and home runs Hanson doesn’t look too studly, but if you start breaking out splits Hanson begins to shine. Hanson hits better LH against RH pitching with a .270/.332/.405 line in 330 plate appearances… not to dismiss his 35 SBs.
So in an infield with the RH Kang at 3B, the RH Mercer at short and the RH Harrison at 2B, with the RH Sean Rodriguez as the primary backup, wouldn’t it be nice to have a LH middle infielder that could come up and give them a break against some RHP’s? Hanson is a nice find and his time has come.
9. Austin Meadows (21, AA)
6.5 years of control Trade Value Score – 85.7
We’ve been talking about Meadows for a few years now and he still can’t legally drink a beer… if they even card him in his home state of Georgia.
Meadows was the gift given to us when Mark Appel didn’t sign and looks like a nice find with the ninth spot in the 2013 draft. He made his way all the way to AA by last September. I didn’t get to scout him in person yet, but that will be on the agenda for 2016.
I’ve tweeted with the aforementioned JJ Cooper about Meadows and he says the thoughts of Meadows needing to leave center field for a corner are inaccurate as Meadows plays a fine center. I also tweeted with Eno Sarris about Meadows during the Arizona Fall League and Sarris said he has an “80 body” which we’ve heard before.
I’ll be anxious to see if his physique changes when he shows up to Altoona as I’ve watched Josh Bell and Willy Garcia throw some serious bulk on between A+ and AA. If Meadows looks similar I’ll guess CF is still the plan and if he adds to that 6’3″ frame I’ll assume a corner is more likely.
8. Nick Kingham (24, AAA)
6.5 years of control Trade Value Score – 88.9
Kingham would be the tallest member of the Blue Man Group
So far the Pirates 2010 draft class has had 16 starts made in the majors and zero from the two prize arms of Nick Kingham and Jameson Taillon. Brandon Cumpton has 15 starts and Casey Sadler has one. The ironic thing is that all four of the pitchers mentioned have now had Tommy John surgery.
Kingham was signed for $485,000 as an overslot sign with all the Bucs could cobble together after paying large bonuses to Taillon and Stetson Allie.
Kingham, which autocorrects to Kingdom more than I’d like, did the elite high school pitcher track by only spending one year in short season ball and moving directly to West Virginia in 2012. He started breaking out as a prospect then by having great numbers as a 20 year old in 127 innings. Kingham continued his progression and I caught one of his starts in Altoona in 2014. You could tell he was focusing on his changeup as he struggled through the first two innings, but then they gave him his curve back in the third inning and he scuffled no more.
Kingham has the height and frame to be an easy 200 inning horse, with his upside being dependent on that changeup. A #2 starter is not out of the question.
Kingham isn’t supposed to return to full workload until midseason so I’d expect him to be initially at AAA. He’d be an option to come up after the All Star game, but there might not be enough room. I know that Huntington takes the roster a day at a time but a promotion for Kingham after the Super Two deadline in 2017 might be a good bet now.
***Updated Venn Below
Tyler Glasnow represents the 3rd wave of prospects under Huntington’s watch to help Pittsburgh win
Photo by Cliff Welch
The Pirates have had notable success over the last three seasons, averaging 93 wins, and even contended the two seasons prior to that before succumbing to epic collapses late in the season. Unfortunatly, the players that built towards that success are fading out quickly. Russell Martin departed via free agency prior to 2015 and AJ Burnett, who was in Philly in 2014, has retired. Neil Walker and Charlie Morton have already been traded and Pedro Alvarez was cut loose as a non-tender. A handful of others have come and gone at the trade deadline. All of these players provided contributions to winning baseball in Pittsburgh for the first time in 20 years. None of the above will be in Pirate uniforms in 2016.
It’s very possible that the Pirates will go through a transitional year in in 2016. What I mean when I say “transitional year” is that they might take a step back in the winning department, but it might also lead to bigger things down the road. This is different than a rebuild. Of course, coming off a 98 win season stepping back was pretty likely anyway. The group of players signed and drafted under the previous regime and developed by the current front office are gone as noted above or nearing the end of their Pirates control. Only Starling Marte has more than three seasons remaining. Even some Neal Huntington draft picks like Jordy Mercer have entered arbitration, while plenty of trade acquisitions and free agent contributors have come and gone. In short, the first wave of prospects moving through the system are veterans now (arrived between 2009-11) and starting to leave, and the second group that supplemented the first wave, like Gerrit Cole and Gregory Polanco, have established themselves (arrived between 2012-14). Thanks to a myriad of injuries to the top pitching prospects, no one arrived in 2015, but starting this season the third wave could begin replacing the first.
Like any prospects, not all of these players will make it in the major leagues. Some will fail to reach their full potential. Some will fall well short and bust entirely. However, if one or two can reach their ceiling, it could help the Pirates extend their winning ways well after the first group departs, including Andrew McCutchen.
Right now, the Pirates are accumulating a ton of prospects at the AAA and AA levels. They have a number of high-ceiling prospects and more depth that could supplement the top prospects than they did in 2009. Many of these prospects would have been called up earlier then than they would now. Fortunately, there’s more talent in the majors now and this group can spend more time in the minors for development. Thanks to the extra time, they should be more major league ready by the time they’re actually given the call, but they will still need to adjust.
The first to arrive could be Alen Hanson. It’s not out of the question that he’ll be the Pirates’ opening day second baseman now that Walker’s been traded and Jung-ho Kang mends his busted knee and leg. I have doubts about the true ceiling of his bat in the majors, but I do think he can serve as a solid, defense-first second baseman who fits the system better than his predecessor. His defense could provide a huge boost to the ground ball oriented pitching staff by scooping ground balls Walker didn’t have the range to haul in. While the Pirates might sacrifice some runs produced using Hansen at second to start the season, he could save some runs with his glove. When everyone’s healthy, he can go back to the minors and hopefully, improve his bat.
Several others could arrive by midseason. Josh Bell looks primed to take over the first base role that’s been a black hole for the Pirates since… I seriously don’t know when. I didn’t live in Pittsburgh the last time they got solid production there and I’ve been here for fifteen years. Bell still has some defensive kinks to work out, but he has huge offensive upside especially if you can add a little bit of power to the plus-rated contact skills. Of all the prospects, he feels the safest for me and could be their next middle of the order anchor.
The rotation as it was composed with Jon Niese and without Charlie Morton needed another warm body in it. Ryan Vogelsong probably wasn’t the first name on anyone’s mind, but the path to the majors for Tyler Glasnow and Jameson Taillon looks a lot clearer. Both have top of the rotation stuff, and it’s unlikely that the Pirates will sign anyone of that caliber in free agency. Their ceiling exceeds that of Scott Kazmir, a popular name appearing on the Pirates fan’s 2016 wish lists. Both could help at the major league level this season and getting them experience is important. While I’m not a big believer in their competitive window truly closing, Glasnow and Taillon could push the Pirates over the top while the last of the first wave are still contributing and keep it open past their departure. Starting pitching looks ugly now, will likely take a step back overall in 2016, but could allow for the Pirates to close 2016 with more upside than they did in 2015. It could also lead to a bizarre scenario where two mid-season call ups push Niese to a playoff bullpen for the second year in a row. In my opinion, this highlights that transition doesn’t always have to be a four letter word. It could make the Pirates better now, but they’ll need to endure April – June.
Looking past 2016, Austin Meadows could arrive in Indianapolis by July or August. While he has a long way to go to reach his Jay Bruce comparisons, he should be knocking at the door by 2017, even if he won’t likely be needed until 2018. Simply put, he’ll be working out any issues he still might have in the minors, rather than in the starting lineup with his service time accruing.
Beyond the elite core the Pirates have, there is depth well beyond what they had when Andrew McCutchen arrived in 2009. Players like Max Moroff and Adam Frazier simply didn’t exist the first time around and get overlooked. Both provide excellent line drive strokes with solid contact and excellent defense in the middle of the infield, while providing Alen Hanson insurance if he flops. They’ve also got a couple of catching options in Elias Diaz and Reese McGuire.
There is considerable pitching depth as well. Some might turn into fringy 4th or 5th starters in the major league rotation. Chad Kuhl has quietly shown solid control paired with an excellent ground ball rate in AA this past season. He’s a very strong dark horse to replace a pitcher at the back end of the rotation. Others, like what Tony Watson did, may transition from starter to bullpen. Nick Kingham is the first one that jumps off the list, as he was a former top 100 player, but will be recovering from Tommy John surgery this season. He could still start but he could easily find a home in the back end of the rotation allowing him to progress a little faster and take some stress off his brand spanking new elbow. Pitchers like Zack Dodson and Jason Creasy probably don’t have a future in the rotation, but they could be converted to relief in Indianapolis. John Holdzkom, who looked like a stud in 2014 before hitting the shelf for much of 2015, could also be a factor. If he recovers, he can very easily become a stalwart late in the game.
The transition will likely result in fewer wins in 2016, but it’s unlikely that 98 wins would have been matched even without any change at the major league level. That’s a hard feat to duplicate two years in a row with the same team. It’s also unlikely that it’ll take 99 to win the division again or 97 to make the wild card game. I expect some fall off next season, but it’s not out of the question that the Pirates can stay competitive while they build towards the future. If they can’t close on the pennant next season, it might lead to some frustration, but it should set help set the table for continued winning well beyond the first perceived window.
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Austin Meadows didn’t have the breakthrough season you may have hoped for, but he’s still the Pirates’ top OF prospect
Photo by Cliff Welch/MiLB.com
On Monday, I broke down the Pirates’ infield prospects. Today, I’ll look at catcher and outfield. Strange bedfellows in terms of position groupings, but bedfellows out of convenience.
I’ll do this a little differently than the last one in the sense that I will separate the catchers from the outfielders, but I will mix all potential outfielders in together. The Pirates don’t seem to care who fits where, as long as they fit. Their current outfield has three center fielders and no one asks any questions. On top of that, they have a number of center field capable players in the corners currently in the minors. Players will jostle around, leaving me with little reason to break them down now.
CATCHER
1. Elias Diaz (.271/.330/.382, 712 OPS at AAA)
Diaz broke out in 2014 and while the numbers haven’t looked as sexy in 2015, he’s showing enough bat to complement his International League-best defense. Diaz may not profile as an obvious choice to carry the load in the majors, but he profiles as a solid backup capable to playing 2-3 times a week.
2. Reese McGuire (.254/.301/.294, 595 OPS at High A)
McGuire has his many defenders and, certainly, there will be some questioning my placing him second behind Diaz. However, it’s a question of proximity for me. Diaz has already been called up to the majors and his offensive tools are playing at a higher level, and at a higher level in the system.
McGuire has youth on his side and while his defense is said to be advanced, he will need to hit some to stick in the majors. His power tool is almost non-existent, while his overall hit tool is generally overrated. Sure, he puts the ball in play a lot minimizing the strikeouts. That’s a very good thing, but he doesn’t walk much and the balls he puts in play don’t find grass. That could be a function of same bad luck as his BABIP has fallen short of .285 each of the last two seasons, but it might also suggest the balls he puts in play aren’t a threat.
Again, McGuire is extremely young for his level, but the bat’s not even playing with his peers at this point. He has time to improve, but it’s difficult to get excited about the early returns. That said, he wouldn’t be the first prospect to break out in AA if he reaches that level next year, as he seems destined to repeat High A.
3. Jin-de Jhang (.292/.332/.381, 713 OPS at High A)
I considered a few players here, but I landed on Jhang who might have the highest ceiling at the plate of any catcher in the system and therefore the highest upside of all. He puts the ball in play like McGuire, but he manages to hit for average and has shown power in spurts.
OUTFIELD
With Polanco’s July uptick at the plate and his continued improvements in August, the Pirates’ outfield is beginning to look more and more like the potential toolsy pasture many dreamed on for the past couple of years. Problem is, there’s no where else to graze and a number of players still looking capable of playing there. Some of these players below will become trade bait if the current arrangement holds up. Others might be insurance if future contract talks break down.
1. Austin Meadows (.310/.360/.420, 780 OPS across two levels at High A/AA)
Meadows’ 2015 numbers aren’t sexy, but one should not overlook what he did in 2014 when he hit well at an extremely young age for the SAL. He performed relatively well in the FSL in what appears to be a down year for the league and he continued his 2015 form in the Eastern League during a short six game call-up. However, this isn’t the big step you’d have liked to see him take.
With the Pirates’ outfield looking crowded, I’d love to see the Pirates give him a shot at third base in 2016. If nothing else it will give him position flexibility and a chance to contribute in the majors for the Pirates sooner.
2. Harold Ramirez (.337/.399/.458, 857 OPS at High A)
Meadows and Ramirez are considerably closer in value for me than many people might consider. He’s having a lights out season that included a standout performance against stronger competition in the Pan-American games. I kept waiting for his FSL numbers to come down to earth and they didn’t. A 20-year old with an .850 OPS in High A have a high success rate. Ramirez’s concern is his inability to stay healthy — just 49 games in 2014 and 80 games in 2015.
3. Willy Garcia (.275/.314/.431, 745 OPS across two levels at AA/AAA)
Garcia’s always been a toolsy player for Pirates fans to dream on, but his crazy strikeout rate caused us to temper expectations. It was still high in 2015, but it’s manageable. He hit for high average early in Altoona, but no power. The power slowly returned after an adjustment period in Indy, showing an all around game we’ve seen little of in the past.
4. Michael Suchy (.275/.362/.441, 803 OPS at Low A)
Suchy, like his 2014 draft mate Jordan Luplow, is quietly rising through the Pirates’ prospects ranks. In a system generally lacking power, Suchy’s at least got some. He’s a little old for the SAL and is the first player that I’ve mentioned that can’t at least play center in a pinch.
5. Keon Broxton (.273/.357/.438, 795 across two levels at AA/AAA)
I didn’t give much thought to Broxton last season, but his modest power, his speed and his base running skills are enticing. The problem is he strikes out way too often to lead off and he’s a probable loss in the Rule 5 draft.
6. Elvis Escobar (.296/.326/.407, 733 OPS at Low A)
He’s been living in Harold Ramirez’s shadow since the day he signed. Now a level down from the guy who signed on the same day as him, Escobar’s flashing the potential he showed when he signed for a six figure bonus. He’s hitting for better average, getting on base and showing a little more pop.
7. Tito Polo (.236/.313/.328, 641 OPS at Low A)
Aside from having a fun name, Polo’s got some tools that he’s flashed at times. He had a nice start to his career stateside in the GCL, but struggled in his sophomore season.
8. Jerrick Suiter (.299/.382/.394, 776 OPS at Low A)
Suiter’s was something of a surprise for the West Virginia Power by hitting for average and OPS’ing well. He’s yet another player drafted in the last few years that puts a lot of balls in play.
9. Casey Hughston (.224/.267/.311, 578 OPS at Short-Season)
Pickings are getting slim, but I’ll trust that the Pirates see more in Hughston than the bat that struggled mightily in his first months in pro ball after being given the overslot bonus he received.
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#THIS. Frame it. https://t.co/DGoeoh63eh
— MLB (@MLB) April 12, 2015
Much has been written about Tony Sanchez, the Pirates 1st round pick in 2009 draft. His roller coaster ride contains his “overdraft”, his Low A and High A dominance, his broken jaw, re-ascending prospect status, the Twitter celebrity-dom, being passed by Elias Diaz and Reese McGuire as the catcher in waiting, his feel good spring of this year, etc.
While it has been ups and downs for Sanchez, the ride of a catcher can last much longer than other positions. Good major league teams need a lot of catching depth and Tony Sanchez has a ceiling of a solid defensive catcher that has some pop in his bat. He also will be cheap for a long time, two of the three catchers in front of him (Cervelli and Stewart) are only under contract for 2016 and Elias Diaz and Reese McGuire aren’t hitting the cover off the ball. Sanchez still could have value for the Pirates.
Sanchez had a great spring this year and so when Chris Stewart injured his hamstring in Spring Training, Sanchez took the open spot on the Opening Day roster. When Stewart was healthy and rehabbed on April 17th he was recalled; Sanchez sent down to AAA. That means Sanchez accrued another 11 days of ML service time. Before the season Sanchez had accrued 0.142 ML service time. 0.142 means 0 full years and 142 days. Add in the 11 days in April and Sanchez is at 0.153.
What this means for Sanchez is that he is sitting 19 days short of completing the 172 days for one service year. For those of you not familiar with ML service time, our friends at Fangraphs explain it nicely here: ML Service Time
Sanchez also is “out of options” after this year meaning he no longer can remain on the 40 man roster and be in AAA. He’d either need to be on the major league roster or be designated for assignment. I think it’s pretty obvious based on his talent, his position and how cheap he is that the Pirates don’t want to DFA him. I think he’s actually being counted on to provide a starting option or a solid backup for the 2016-2021 seasons.
So would Huntington bring Sanchez up on September 1st and “burn” a year of control or will Sanchez not be brought up to keep him below the threshhold?
I bet Huntington waits until the middle of September and brings up Elias Diaz to have the extra catcher and keep a year of eligibility for Sanchez. People will assume this is because Sanchez will be traded or designated after the season, but I don’t think it’s the case. I think it will be due to the service time.
I also think Huntington will figure out a way roster Sanchez in 2016 so as to not lose this depth he’d love to have for the next few years. Huntington got burned on lack of catching depth in 2011 and it won’t happen again. My thought on the future of catching in Pittsburgh looks like this:
|
2015 |
2016 |
2017 |
2018 |
2019 |
2020 |
|
| MLB | Cervelli | Cervelli | Diaz | Diaz | Diaz | McGuire/Diaz |
| Stewart | Stewart | Sanchez | Sanchez | Sanchez | Sanchez | |
| Sanchez? | ||||||
| AAA | Diaz | Diaz* | Valle | McGuire | McGuire* | |
| Sanchez | Valle | Stallings | Valle | Gushoe | ||
| Stallings | Krause | |||||
| AA | Stallings | McGuire | McGuire | Gushoe | ||
| Valle | Gushoe | Krause | ||||
| Krause | ||||||
Notes
– I’d be shocked if McGuire didn’t need two years offensively in AA and AAA. He’s so young and body is so lean.
– Diaz could possibly be promoted in 2016, but it would be after June to prevent his Super Two status. Same with McGuire in 2019.
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When will Taillon debut in Pittsburgh in 2015?
Photo via Inside Pitch
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It’s prospect season! That’s the time of year between the end of the winter meetings and when pitchers and catchers report dedicated to organization ranking lists and Top 100’s. It’s down time for everyone but the nerdiest of fans. We at The Point of Pittsburgh decided to join the fun. Where most lists stop at ten or thirty, we’re going all the way up to forty making ours the nerdiest list around.
Each of us completed our individual lists and then aggregated them into a complete list. Today, we’ll look at the top ten. Ages in parentheses are as of July 1st, 2015. We projected what level the player will spend the majority of the 2015 season, as well. In case you missed them, here are some links:
10. Harold Ramirez (20) OF, A+
Kevin Creagh – Has all the tools to be a starting OF, but I am a sizeist. It’s hard to see his 5’10” frame (yes, I know Cutch is the same height) starting for the Pirates long-term. Probable trade chip in the future
Steve DiMiceli – I think people overlook what he’s done at his age. He’s a potential Five Tool centerfielder, and even though you wouldn’t know it from the Pirates organization, they don’t grow on trees.
Michael Bradley – Potential 4 tool guy (minus the power). Injuries robbed him of time in ’14 but he’s still very young.
9. Elias Diaz (24) C, AAA/MLB
Michael – A plus backup catcher floor with a ceiling to be an average starter. Diaz breakout in ’14 gives the “FranChrisco” tandem some depth and provides a bridge to McGuire.
Steve – Has the defensive makings of a solid back up catcher, but I’d like to see the bat play a little higher at AAA before I’d call him the heir apparent for the starting catching role as some presume.
Kevin –If he continues to progress at AAA in 2015, Diaz could be 2016’s opening day catcher. Bat could be above-avg for position
8. Adrian Sampson (23) RHP, AAA
Steve – Sampson is another great example of why you shouldn’t lose your crap on a player when the Pirates move them quickly. Looking like a great back-of-rotation innings eater, but I bet he’ll reach that ceiling somewhere else.
Kevin – Broke out in 2014, probably a #4 long term. Could see the Majors in 2015 down the stretch
7. Reese McGuire (20) C, A+
Kevin – Touted as catcher of the future. Defense said to be Major League ready right now, but alarming lack of power (even doubles) is a flag for me. Yes, he’s young, but it was an empty average in 2014
Steve – His solid contact skills and defense will carry him through the minors but his ceiling is Ryan Hanigan if he doesn’t develop a little pop.
Michael – When you have a player that scouts enjoy watching play defense you know you have a gem. McGuire supposedly handles pitchers like a ML vet and has hit enough to keep getting promoted. He hasn’t shown a giant platoon split yet and is crazy young for an American born player. Ceiling is HIGH but his bat could fail.
6. Alen Hanson (22) 2B, AAA
Steve – I still have questions about whether or not the bat will translate to the majors, but he still has upside even at second base if he gets it together.
Michael – While he might be lower on everyone else’s list, the fact that he could contribute TODAY gets him this high. He’s super young, doesn’t have a large platoon split, could play some short and has JHay potential.
Kevin – Brings a nice blend of power/speed to 2B position. Attitude concerns lead me to believe that Pirates would move him in the right deal. Kang may have been a hedge for such a move
5. Josh Bell (22) RF/1B, AA/AAA
Kevin –If the power develops this year, could be 2016’s 1B. Move to 1B dings his value a touch, so #5 feels right
Michael – Probably the lowest you’ll see Bell ranked. His hit tool is OK, his defense is OK, his patience and power is OK for a corner. He’s not super young anymore. He’s an good prospect that could turn into a Nick Swisher type or a switch hitting Travis Snider.
Steve – While his second half power outage was concerning, Bell makes for a rare combination of pop and plate discipline. He could be heading towards that high ceiling of his.
4. Nick Kingham (23) RHP, AAA/MLB
Michael – While he’s a pitcher and has some of the same drawbacks that pitchers do, his risk is less. First, he’s succeeded at AA and a little at AAA. Second, he has the command and control it’s just a question of whether his stuff is good enough.
Steve – There is no such thing as a safe pitching prospect, but my goodness does Kingham feel like it. He likely won’t be more than a 3 but his ability to eat innings will play anywhere in the rotation.
Kevin – Solid #3 for me, also on verge of Majors
3. Austin Meadows (20) OF, A+
Kevin – Dynamic talent that was beset by hamstring injury in 2014. If he performs as expected, should be #2 on this list next year behind Glasnow
Steve – Meadows is still so far away, but if he can stay healthy while mashing A+ pitching as a third year pro, I suspect he’ll earn elite status.
Michael – The ceiling (5 tool star), the fact he can stick in CF and mainly the fact that he’s not a pitcher vault him up to #1 (for me).
2. Tyler Glasnow (21) RHP, AA
Michael – He’s number two mainly due to the fact that very few pitchers reach their ceiling or stay healthy. Gerrit Cole was more talented than him and still is only a 2 WAR player so far.
Kevin – May have higher upside than Taillon, but control still a slight concern, plus needing to prove it at AA. Enviable problem to choose between them
Steve – Glasnow has the highest ceiling in the system, but I still have concerns with his floor thanks to control. I think he’s a major leaguer but will he start?
1. Jameson Taillon (23) RHP, AAA/MLB
Kevin – Still a #2 level pitcher for me, on verge of Majors, fastball-curve combo should make him AJ Burnett
Steve – Tommy John surgery doesn’t even scare me anymore. Taillon looked like he could jump into a major league rotation as a solid 4 when I saw him pitch in Altoona. He’s a great combination of ceiling and floor.
Michael -Tommy John and the lack of a third plus pitch overcome the makeup, the body and his stellar appearance as a Canadian pitcher in the World Baseball Classic.
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Walker’s value lies in both his bat and his position. Photo Credit Jeff Roberson (AP)
Continuing with numbers #15-#11 today. You can read the primer and #25-21 here and #20-#16 here. Age in parentheses as of standard July 1st cutoff date. On to the rankings:
15. Pedro Alvarez (28) – ML – 1B/3B – 2 years control, 2nd time through arbitration
“Pedro strikes out too much”.. “Pedro is slow at 3B”… “Pedro can’t throw the ball” etc. etc. The one thing that Pedro can do is hit HR’s. In 2014 the average runs scored per team was 4.08, the lowest in decades (causing me to wonder if the HR coefficient in WAR should be raised). If Pedro can hit 30 HRs/600 ABs in this run starved era he has a lot of value regardless of what position he plays. Pedro was a bit unlucky with the HR in 2014. Pedro has two years and won’t make too much due to his K totals so count him as the #15 most valuable Pirate.
14. Elias Diaz (24) – AAA – C – 6 years of control, pre-arbitration
Diaz is the last but highest ranked of the four catchers on this list. The reason he is the top is that he is almost on a Reese McGuire-level on defense, but might have more upside with the bat AND is knocking on the door of the majors. Diaz had a quietly good (but abbreviated) season in 2013, but had a breakout season in 2014. He always showed the great defense and athleticism with the potential to hit but he never put it all together until this past year. He capped a great regular season with a nice showing in the Arizona Fall League with one scout saying that he had “game changing” skills behind the plate. The AFL showing just adds to his value. He’ll be cheap for a while and is a backup at a minimum.
13. Charlie Morton (31) – ML – SP – 2 years on current contract plus team option
Charlie Morton is an enigma. On a given night, he might be the best pitcher in baseball. His pitches are so amazing sometimes that he has the Twitter nickname of #electricstuff. At other times, he appears to be waging a personal war with himself on the mound and is his own worst enemy. He’s battled injuries the past two years, but he looks to come back early in 2015. He is signed to two more years at $8M each and a $9.5M option for the following year. If Morton becomes the 3-4 WAR player that many think he can, then these years will have tremendous value for the Pirates.
12. Vance Worley (27) – ML – SP – 4 years control, 1st time through arbitration
Vance Worley might go down as one of Neal Huntington’s best finds. After a successful minor league career and a great start with the Phillies, he was dealt to the Twins where injuries and poor performances led him to being given away to the Pirates for peanuts. In a half season he gained 1.4 WAR and gave the Pirates a jump start in their playoff push. His deception is what makes him impressive and his 4 years of control makes him a nice trade asset. He is a Super Two (four times through arbitration instead of three), but if he can be a 2-3 WAR pitcher the Pirates will gladly pay him. With the rise of prospects like Kingham, Taillon, and Sampson, plus the pitchers already under long-term control (Cole, Morton, Liriano, Locke), Worley could demonstrate his real-world trade value soon.
11. Neil Walker (29) – ML – 2B – 2 years of control, 3rd time through arbitration
In 2014 Walker was 24th in the league in isolated slugging percentage (ISO). Of the 23 players ahead of him only two had a lower K% than his 15.4%. Walker’s position has kept him from being the slugger that his lean 6’3″ frame and pedigree want to be. If he’d slide over to 1B or 3B and be allowed to bulk up some more, 30+ homers are possible. The problem is that his value is very high playing the much more demanding 2B. Walker is obviously an extension candidate and obviously wants to stay in Pittsburgh. Some don’t agree, but Edwin Encarnacion is a nice comp to what his future could be and his power shouldn’t be discounted. With his bat continuing to get better it makes Walker a nice trade asset if the Pirates ever want to go that route. If he had more years of control and/or wasn’t getting more expensive as a Super Two (either an $8M or $9M salary this year), he’d rank higher on this list.
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