You pretty much have to look for Taillon’s face on the side of a milk carton these past two years.
Today we round out TPOP’s top 40 rankings. Special thanks once again to all of our participants. I think we provoked some thoughts while we also got to highlight how much is still in the system.
Kevin Creagh (KC) – TPOP
Michael Bradley (MB) – TPOP
Kurt Hackimer (KH) – winitforus.com and soon-to-be TPOP writer
Steve DiMiceli (SD) – TPOP
10. Ke’Bryan Hayes (3B, 19)
KH – Hayes, Pittsburgh’s other first round pick, is also a good bet to stick around on the left side of the infield because of his strong arm and keen baseball instincts. The 19 year old son of former Pirate Charlie Hayes is more muscular than most teenage prospects and has a swing that has already warranted Top 100 Prospects consideration from several publications.
KC – Good lineage, had strong debut in 2015, albeit in GCL. Anxious to see his full-season debut this year.
MB – Hayes is one of the reasons that I’m hoping Melancon and Cervelli get us some comp picks. Hayes had a great first season and looks to have some serious upside. I’m assuming he’ll be in Charleston this summer and I might have to take a trip down to watch him.
SD – I already bought in on Carloz Munoz’s rookie ball performance. Hayes’s sandwich pedigree should have him higher for me, but I’m in wait and see mode.
9. Kevin Newman (SS, 22)
KH – An already polished product of the historic Cape Cod League, Newman was considered as a safe selection for the Pirates at the 19 spot in the draft. He has line drive power, can hit for average, and has a good chance to stick at shortstop. The last part is critical because the Pirates are thin at short, which should allow Newman to rapidly climb the organizational ranks.
SD – Not the pro debut you’d like to see, but he could provide an average or better hit tool and stick at short. That’s not a bad combination.
MB – I’m totally swayed by Keith Law’s conviction to his top prospect status. Law swears he’s a sure fire ML shortstop with an all fields approach with the bat.
KC – Low upside college SS was 2015 1st round pick. Bat appears to have no power in it.
8. Elias Diaz (C, 25)
SD – At the very least, Diaz should know where to sit in the dug out to get the best view of the game following his phantom call up in September. Looks like a solid backup at worst.
KC – Remains in the mix for catching work in the future for Pirates, but his bat stagnated last year in AAA. Seems more like a 50 game player than a 110 game player.
KH – Defensively, Diaz is the whole package. He’s got a strong arm, a sturdy glove, and the ability to properly manage a pitching staff. Offensively, he didn’t progress as well in 2015 as he did in his breakout 2014 campaign and probably won’t become a star. But his patience at the plate and bat control should allow him to stick around in the majors.
MB – I hear all the hype about his defense, but I think his bat is going to take a long time, if ever, to come around against good ML RHP’s. I think he’d be a great backup that plays against LHPs, but that could be Chris Stewart too and he just signed for a pittance (i.e. not that valuable).
7. Nick Kingham (RHP, 24)
KC – Out for most of 2016 after Tommy John surgery, but I still think he could be a #3.
MB – Maybe I blow off Tommy John surgery too much, but I think Kingham will be back and will be good. I watched him throw in Altoona and at worst he’s a Jared Hughes. At best he’s a solid #3. I’m thinking Jeff Suppan.
SD – Broken elbow and all, Kingham still has a place in the top 10. I think he could still develop into a middle of the rotation type or a back of the bullpen type.
KH– Kingham probably would have been in the majors last season if Tommy John surgery hadn’t derailed his season. The righty is on the mend and, at 6’6”/230 lbs., has that workhorse frame that could allow him to rack up some 200 inning seasons from the bottom half of the Pirates rotation.
6. Harold Ramirez (OF, 21)
KH – Ramirez has a quick swing, strong wrists, and is able to generate lots of contact. His speed should make up for a perceived lack of power, but his thick lower half could reduce that speed advantage as he matures. He probably won’t stick at center, probably doesn’t have the arm for right. Wait. Am I just describing Jose Tabata?
KC – Injury prone, reminds me of Jose Tabata in terms of build. For me, he’s a 4th OF as I don’t think he hits enough to man a corner and not enough range for CF.
SD – Ramirez has done some impressive things playing against older competition. He had a great summer and was the only bright spot for Columbia in the PanAm games.
MB – Another guy who I’m buying the Keith Law and Baseball Prospectus hype. They rave about his bat and that’s the most important part of an offensive player. A Melky Cabrera type could be nice in PNC.
5. Alen Hanson (2B, 23)
MB – Plus glove 2B with 30 steals and 10+ triples. His splits are much better against RHP which is good with Mercer, Harrison, SRod and Kang now… and Frazier, Gift, Moroff and Newman in a couple years.
KH – The Pirates finally gave up on Hanson becoming a major league shortstop and moved the switch hitter to second base last season. His average hit tool is damaged by below average on-base skill and power, which may make Hanson more useful to the Pirates as a utility player rather than an everyday second baseman.
SD – Bat still hasn’t broken out in the upper levels after a great year in Low A in 2012. ISO was a bit off this season, but was one of six players who qualified in AAA under the age of 23.
KC – Seems more like a utility infielder for me at this point, but he could still see some time in PGH this year (either out of spring training as bench player or in case of injury).
4. Jameson Taillon (RHP, 24)
MB – The Pirates love makeup and this guy seems to have a lot of it. Pre-injuries he had a good fastball and a great curve. If the change is good he could be a solid #2. Or he could be a solid #2 with just the fastball and curve just like Uncle AJ Burnett.
SD – Was major league ready prior to his injury but basically having two years off isn’t going to help his stock any. The layoff likely limits him to the bullpen in Pittsburgh this year.
KH – Due to injuries, it has been two seasons since Taillon has thrown in a meaningful ballgame, but he still has that top of the rotation pedigree that the Pirates dreamed about when they drafted him. Taillon still needs to make up for lost developmental time in Triple A before he’s added to the major league rotation.
KC – After not pitching competitively for 2 years he has fallen off Top 100 lists, but I still like him as a downgraded #3 now.
3. Austin Meadows (OF, 21)
MB – I like Mark Kotsay as a low comp and Shin-Soo Choo as a high comp. Per BA he can stick in CF and per my Twitter buddy Eno Sarris he has a “80 body”. He could be a great asset or trade piece.
KC – I’m disappointed in the lack of power for a player that is probably destined to man a corner at PNC. Great hit tool, hoping he matures into more power.
KH – It’s questionable whether or not Austin Meadows will be able to stick in center field. Fortunately for the Pirates, they have three center fielders in their outfield already. If Meadows’s raw power continues to evolve into onfield pop, he could be the heir apparent to Andrew McCutchen.
SD – I think the Jay Bruce comps have stopped. Meadows has some solid contact skills, but the power needs to develop.
2. Josh Bell (1B, 23)
SD – Maybe going a little crazy here on Bell, but he could develop into one of the better hitters in baseball if power goes from balls in play flying off his bat to balls flying out of the park.
KH – Last year, the switch-hitting outfielder became a switch-hitting first baseman. While Bell’s average remained stellar and his strikeout to walk ratio (1:1) was impeccable, he didn’t generate much power. This could become problematic for him as he prepares to fill Pittsburgh’s perpetual hole at first.
MB – Bell’s floor is now a starting RF who sits against tough LHP. His ceiling is an everyday middle of the order 1B who can sub in the corners.
KC – Power is tantalizing, but has not shown up in game action yet. Great K/BB numbers and strong hit tool. Defense is extremely rough at 1B.
1. Tyler Glasnow (RHP, 22)
KC – Has all the makings of a low-end #1/high-end #2 with his dominant fastball delivered from his gigantor 6-8″ frame, plus knee buckling curveball. Could see PGH in July.
MB – I saw Tyson Ross as a comp for him. That’s OK but his ceiling is so high. The Pirates and their patient approach will get the most out of him which is going to be special.
KH – For several years, the Pirates have invested heavily in young projectable high school pitchers. Most of them have flamed out, except Glasnow. The righty boasts two plus pitches, a fastball that touches 100 MPH and a devastating curve, and is poised for a midseason call up to The Show after he works out some kinks in Triple A Indianapolis.
SD – Glasnow is an excellent prospect with a great fastball/curveball combo and some control issues. He strikes a lot of guys out but he also gets hit pretty hard at times, too.
Join us late? Here are are the links to the rest of the rankings!
Follow The Point of Pittsburgh on Twitter @thepointofpgh
]]>
Continuing with our trade value rankings of the Pirates organization, today we’ll look at #20 to #14. You can read the primer and #25-21 to catch up.
Today’s rankings start to include more prospects. My prospect evaluation has many resources, but normally includes reading Keith Law from ESPN, Bed Badler and JJ Cooper from Baseball America, John Sickels (who has been doing prospects so long that he owns the URL minorleagueball.com) and finally whichever Fangraphs prospect writer hasn’t been hired by a MLB front office. Then I scout prospects myself in Altoona as I live close to the ballpark….plus my normal number crunching.
On to the rankings:
20. Reese McGuire (21, A+/AA)
6.5 years of control Trade Value Score – 77.4
The Pirates started a notable trend a couple drafts ago where they draft the youngest players in high school/juco/college that are draftable. The 2013 draft was the bellwether when they drafted Reese McGuire and Austin Meadows in the first round who were barely 18 and Blake Taylor in the second round who was 17 at draft time.
So when talking about McGuire you need to factor in his youth. He’s consistently been in the top 10 youngest players in whatever league he plays in and has been able to battle through that obstacle. The one thing that isn’t youthful about his game is his total defensive package. He calls, blocks and throws like a seasoned major league catcher.
On the offensive side he has two things going for him: he has a good eye and he has good bat-to-ball skills. He might not ever hit for any power, but his floor offensively might be a left-handed Chris Stewart which isn’t terrible. In a very small sample size McGuire hit .294/.379/.412 in the Arizona Fall League, which should have been the best competition he has seen.
McGuire will battle Elias Diaz for “catcher of the future” and it will be a fun to have multiple options.
19. Harold Ramirez (21, AA)
6.5 years of control Trade Value Score – 77.4
Harold Ramirez has been on scouts’s radars since the Pirates signed him out of Colombia in 2011, but when Keith Law scouted him last July Ramirez was acknowledged by other national prospect nerds. Ramirez has suffered through a lot of hamstring issues and hearing Law talk about how he maximizes his lower half might have something to do with it.
Ramirez is a luxury item for the outfield talented Pirates. He’s a gifted defender and has a great hit tool which should get him to the bigs. He probably doesn’t have the best arm for center field, but the Pirates current ML outfield setup might show that they’d rather have the cannons in the corners. The comp I see when I look at Ramirez is Melky Cabrera with his strong hit tool, some power and small frame.
Since Ramirez is playing in Altoona this year I’ll try to talk to him at some point. The two questions I will ask him is 1) do you feel that your small strike zone is an advantage to you? and 2) have you watched Narcos?
18. Kevin Newman (22, A)
6.5 years of control Trade Value Score – 77.4
When the Steelers were building a dynasty back in the 90’s they were religious about drafting the best player available. The Pirates definitely used that philosophy with the Kevin Newman pick in the 2015 draft.
Kevin Newman made his prospect name by being a consistent performer and winning the Cape Cod league batting title twice (which had never been done before). The Cape Cod league is a nice litmus test for hitters as they are in a minor league like environment and they use wood bats.
Coming into the draft the aforementioned Keith Law drew some criticism when he said that Newman was the 2nd best prospect in the whole draft; a thought that was shared by few. He thinks Newman could have a quick path to the majors with his glove at shortstop and his all fields approach with the bat.
Newman also continues with the high character type picks that the Pirates seem to emphasize more than other system. The story that Newman tells Greg Brown about when he was watching the ML draft with his parents shows how he might have those intangibles that will benefit the Pirates going forward.
17. Jordy Mercer (29, MLB)
Three years of arbitration ($2.075M in arb-1 year of 2016) Trade Value Score – 80.0
Jordy channeling El Toro – courtesy of @27imokemp
Jordy Mercer is one of my favorite Pirates so I won’t even try to sugarcoat that. Guys that are great teammates and work hard to overcome lack of physical tools will always have a special place in my heart.
When Jordy was coming through the organization I thought there was zero chance of him being an everyday shortstop, but with tons of reps and a lot of learning (something he credits Clint Barmes with) Mercer has become a plus glove shortstop.
Mercer also crushes LH pitching to the tune of .324/.374/.490 in 320 plate appearances. This platoon advantage and glove make him a given on any major league team. Mercer also has some nice pop in his bat which he’s shown a little the last three years.
As far as trade value, Mercer is never going to break the bank in arbitration so he’ll be a value the next three years. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Pirates signed him to a Chris Stewart-style extension and keep him around for two or three extra years.
I also would love to see him bulk up his 6’3″ frame and man a corner in his last few years. I could see 20+ home runs in that bat.
16. Francisco Cervelli (30, MLB)
Final year of arbitration control ($3.5M in arb-3 year of 2016) Trade Value Score – 80.0
Ask yinzer nation about Cervelli and they’ll just say “he’s awesome” but let’s quantify awesome. He’s debatedly the best pitch framer in the majors, especially now that Jose Molina can’t find a job. Cervelli calls a great game too and has a great rapport with pitchers, which is impossible to put a statistic on.
How about Cervelli offensively? He’s pretty much exactly what you’d want as a ML starter: walks around 10% of the time, K’s less than 20% of the time, BA around .290, 10-15 homers and probably more outside PNC. He’s really the perfect catcher and at $3.5M he’s a steal.
When Cervelli is suggesting a 3/$39M extension you know the Pirates have severe leverage. No chance they trade him prior to Opening Day, but if they would he’d return a bundle.
15. Francisco Liriano (32, MLB)
Two years remaining on contract at 2 yr/$27.33M Trade Value Score – 80.0
One might think I’m talking out of two sides of my mouth when I’m saying that two years of Francisco Liriano are really valuable and also say that the Pirates should dumpster dive for free agent starting pitchers. I’ll explain more in an article someday but to summarize, #1 and #2 starters are now the most valuable property in baseball and are distancing themselves from even the shortstops in value.
Since “Frankie” is now a true #2 starter, he’s incredibly valuable at $13.67M a year. You could argue he might command $25-30M on a one year deal in this crazy market we’re seeing and if I was the Pirates I’d at least think about extending him now while they’ll have a little leverage (4/$60M?) or they can plan on a draft pick after 2017 if all goes well.
On Liriano the ballplayer it’s probably obvious to even the most casual fan how good Liriano’s slider has become. It’s been written about by every baseball thinktank from MLB.com to Beyond the Boxscore to our friends at Fangraphs … and more.
He’s really talented and really affordable making him a very valuable asset.
14. Josh Bell (23, AAA)
6.5 years of control Trade Value Score – 82.8
The richest second round draft pick ever, Josh Bell, has taken a lot longer to reach the show than his college pitcher draft mate Gerrit Cole, but he’s about to come onto the scene this year. Bell, who has been covered a lot since he was drafted, has become one of the better hitters in the minors and whose bat has carried him to the brink of the majors.
Bell has a great approach at the plate and hits the ball incredibly hard. I’ve watched Polanco, Marte, Allie, etc. all play at Altoona and it’s no question that Bell has the highest exit velocity of all of them, I just don’t have the Trackman data to prove it. The problem with Bell currently is that he doesn’t get enough loft on the balls and many of his screamers just go for singles and doubles; hopefully the Pirates coaching staff can fix that.
Bell could also be a real asset to the Pirates if he could come up midseason 2016 and start at 1B full time. This would give the Pirates 6.5 years of a everyday 1B in the long term and in the short term would make the Pirates bench pretty stout with Jaso and Morse… not to mention pseudo-1B Sean Rodriguez.
You could argue that Bell’s potential and 6.5 years of cheap control would rank him higher on the list, but his questionable defensive position, the pitching premium and the Pirates’ stacked system have him ranking lower than one would guess.
]]>
Tyson Ross has all the characteristics in a pitcher that the Pirates look for
Photo by Jim Cowsert/USA Today Sports
If you could design the perfect pitcher, based on what we know about the Pirates’ predilections, what would he be? Probably, it would look like this:
- Tall, preferably at least 6′-3″
- High ground ball rate — Eight starting pitchers have pitched at least 200 innings for the Pirates between 2011 and 2015. Of those eight, only two had a ground ball rate less than 48% (the typical Major League average): Jeff Karstens and James McDonald
- Above average strikeout rate — The perfect spot on the Venn diagram of pitchers is someone that has a high ground ball rate (usually indicative of ground outs) coupled with a strikeout rate, which leads to less hits and gap shots/home runs. In recent years, Francisco Liriano has been the epitome of this — a 52% ground ball rate and a 9.58 K/9 rate is the sweet spot.
- Affordable. Or you could say cheap.
With the Pirates unable to re-sign J.A. Happ, there’s a gaping hole at the #3 spot in the rotation behind Cole and Liriano. That gap is also ahead of the uninspiring back two of Charlie Morton and Jeff Locke. There are so many pitchers out on the free agent market that I believe mid to late January will lend itself to the Pirates being able to get someone on a good deal for 1 or 2 years. However, there’s a pitcher potentially out there that would a perfect pickup for the Pirates, based on the criteria listed above.
Tyson Ross of the Padres will be age-29 in 2016. The 6′-5″ Ross has two more arbitration years of team control. Last year, his ground ball rate was a staggering 61.5% with a strikeout rate of 9.73 K/9 to match. Ross is primarily a fastball-slider pitcher, with his 86 mph slider as his out pitch that grades out very well (+1.69 runs/100 pitches in 2015).
Ross is projected to earn $10M through arbitration for 2016, which is exactly what I allotted for a pitcher this offseason in our 2016 Pirate Roster and Payroll article. The question, as always, is how much is Ross worth and what will be required to obtain him in a trade?
Ross’s WAR the last three years is 1.9, 3.2, 4.4 from 2013-15. Using a 3-2-1 weighting, his average of the last three years is 3.6 WAR. Assuming $6.5M/WAR and two years of control, that is $46.8M of production. Using his $10M this year and then $15M presumed salary in 2017, that’s $25M of potential salary, giving a surplus value of $21.8M. Using our Prospect Value Article, that is a hitter ranked #26-50 in Baseball America’s Top 100 or a pitcher ranked #11-25. Naturally, there are other permutations you could get to accrue a value of $21.8M, but let’s use those.
For the Pirates, those equivalents are roughly Tyler Glasnow for the pitcher or Austin Meadows, maybe Josh Bell for the hitters. For me, Glasnow is the one I would want to part with the least, but he is obviously the most appealing to other teams. Many of you would not trade six years of Glasnow for two years of anyone. I’m a Flags Fly Forever guy, meaning that if the Pirates were to win a World Series in either 2016 or 2017 with Ross, I could care less what was given up for that title.
There’s a few problems, though. First is that I’m not sure if the Padres are rebuilding, reloading, or just plain going for it. After last year’s ill-fated tradeapalooza spending spree resulted in a 74-88 season, the Padres have little potential payroll flexibility and a farm system that is lacking. Which leads into the second issue. The Padres recently traded Craig Kimbrel (of the aforementioned tradeapalooza) to the Red Sox for two high-end prospects, a third interesting one, and some other dude. The hitters are probably more in the #51-100 range (Manuel Margot and Javier Guerrera), but the Pirates may have to kick in some other pieces for Ross, if the Kimbrel trade is a precedent.
Could the Pirates scale back the higher prospects and go with a Jameson Taillon-Harold Ramirez package? It’s possible, but I can’t imagine that being enough. The Padres aren’t just going to give Ross away, especially because if Ross is gone without a ready-made replacement, their rotation will just have James Shields – Andrew Cashner – Odrisamer Despaigne and a bunch of young guys fighting for spots. I suppose it’s wishful thinking to think the Padres would take Charlie Morton back in the deal to replicate the ground ball tendencies of Ross, while giving them a bridge arm for 2016.
Tyson Ross and the Pittsburgh Pirates seem like a match made in heaven. It would be the kind of win-now move that would help quell the masses already searching for pitchforks and torches, afraid that the Pirates are going cheap this offseason. Here’s hoping that Ross will be wearing out the infield grass at PNC Park with his plethora of ground balls in 2016.
]]>
Austin Meadows didn’t have the breakthrough season you may have hoped for, but he’s still the Pirates’ top OF prospect
Photo by Cliff Welch/MiLB.com
On Monday, I broke down the Pirates’ infield prospects. Today, I’ll look at catcher and outfield. Strange bedfellows in terms of position groupings, but bedfellows out of convenience.
I’ll do this a little differently than the last one in the sense that I will separate the catchers from the outfielders, but I will mix all potential outfielders in together. The Pirates don’t seem to care who fits where, as long as they fit. Their current outfield has three center fielders and no one asks any questions. On top of that, they have a number of center field capable players in the corners currently in the minors. Players will jostle around, leaving me with little reason to break them down now.
CATCHER
1. Elias Diaz (.271/.330/.382, 712 OPS at AAA)
Diaz broke out in 2014 and while the numbers haven’t looked as sexy in 2015, he’s showing enough bat to complement his International League-best defense. Diaz may not profile as an obvious choice to carry the load in the majors, but he profiles as a solid backup capable to playing 2-3 times a week.
2. Reese McGuire (.254/.301/.294, 595 OPS at High A)
McGuire has his many defenders and, certainly, there will be some questioning my placing him second behind Diaz. However, it’s a question of proximity for me. Diaz has already been called up to the majors and his offensive tools are playing at a higher level, and at a higher level in the system.
McGuire has youth on his side and while his defense is said to be advanced, he will need to hit some to stick in the majors. His power tool is almost non-existent, while his overall hit tool is generally overrated. Sure, he puts the ball in play a lot minimizing the strikeouts. That’s a very good thing, but he doesn’t walk much and the balls he puts in play don’t find grass. That could be a function of same bad luck as his BABIP has fallen short of .285 each of the last two seasons, but it might also suggest the balls he puts in play aren’t a threat.
Again, McGuire is extremely young for his level, but the bat’s not even playing with his peers at this point. He has time to improve, but it’s difficult to get excited about the early returns. That said, he wouldn’t be the first prospect to break out in AA if he reaches that level next year, as he seems destined to repeat High A.
3. Jin-de Jhang (.292/.332/.381, 713 OPS at High A)
I considered a few players here, but I landed on Jhang who might have the highest ceiling at the plate of any catcher in the system and therefore the highest upside of all. He puts the ball in play like McGuire, but he manages to hit for average and has shown power in spurts.
OUTFIELD
With Polanco’s July uptick at the plate and his continued improvements in August, the Pirates’ outfield is beginning to look more and more like the potential toolsy pasture many dreamed on for the past couple of years. Problem is, there’s no where else to graze and a number of players still looking capable of playing there. Some of these players below will become trade bait if the current arrangement holds up. Others might be insurance if future contract talks break down.
1. Austin Meadows (.310/.360/.420, 780 OPS across two levels at High A/AA)
Meadows’ 2015 numbers aren’t sexy, but one should not overlook what he did in 2014 when he hit well at an extremely young age for the SAL. He performed relatively well in the FSL in what appears to be a down year for the league and he continued his 2015 form in the Eastern League during a short six game call-up. However, this isn’t the big step you’d have liked to see him take.
With the Pirates’ outfield looking crowded, I’d love to see the Pirates give him a shot at third base in 2016. If nothing else it will give him position flexibility and a chance to contribute in the majors for the Pirates sooner.
2. Harold Ramirez (.337/.399/.458, 857 OPS at High A)
Meadows and Ramirez are considerably closer in value for me than many people might consider. He’s having a lights out season that included a standout performance against stronger competition in the Pan-American games. I kept waiting for his FSL numbers to come down to earth and they didn’t. A 20-year old with an .850 OPS in High A have a high success rate. Ramirez’s concern is his inability to stay healthy — just 49 games in 2014 and 80 games in 2015.
3. Willy Garcia (.275/.314/.431, 745 OPS across two levels at AA/AAA)
Garcia’s always been a toolsy player for Pirates fans to dream on, but his crazy strikeout rate caused us to temper expectations. It was still high in 2015, but it’s manageable. He hit for high average early in Altoona, but no power. The power slowly returned after an adjustment period in Indy, showing an all around game we’ve seen little of in the past.
4. Michael Suchy (.275/.362/.441, 803 OPS at Low A)
Suchy, like his 2014 draft mate Jordan Luplow, is quietly rising through the Pirates’ prospects ranks. In a system generally lacking power, Suchy’s at least got some. He’s a little old for the SAL and is the first player that I’ve mentioned that can’t at least play center in a pinch.
5. Keon Broxton (.273/.357/.438, 795 across two levels at AA/AAA)
I didn’t give much thought to Broxton last season, but his modest power, his speed and his base running skills are enticing. The problem is he strikes out way too often to lead off and he’s a probable loss in the Rule 5 draft.
6. Elvis Escobar (.296/.326/.407, 733 OPS at Low A)
He’s been living in Harold Ramirez’s shadow since the day he signed. Now a level down from the guy who signed on the same day as him, Escobar’s flashing the potential he showed when he signed for a six figure bonus. He’s hitting for better average, getting on base and showing a little more pop.
7. Tito Polo (.236/.313/.328, 641 OPS at Low A)
Aside from having a fun name, Polo’s got some tools that he’s flashed at times. He had a nice start to his career stateside in the GCL, but struggled in his sophomore season.
8. Jerrick Suiter (.299/.382/.394, 776 OPS at Low A)
Suiter’s was something of a surprise for the West Virginia Power by hitting for average and OPS’ing well. He’s yet another player drafted in the last few years that puts a lot of balls in play.
9. Casey Hughston (.224/.267/.311, 578 OPS at Short-Season)
Pickings are getting slim, but I’ll trust that the Pirates see more in Hughston than the bat that struggled mightily in his first months in pro ball after being given the overslot bonus he received.
]]>
Harold Ramirez may warrant a look at Altoona before the end of the season
With so much attention focused on the major league club and the trade deadline, it’s easy to overlook the progress being made by prospects further down the system. At a glance, the system might look as if it’s down, as Kevin pointed out recently, but there is life and a number of top guns and under the radar guys showing well from AAA to the GCL. Many of these players would do well to spend the final month of the season at the next level. Here are my thoughts on who should be promoted before too long.
To Pittsburgh
No one – There are a number of prospects itching for a September call up, but none who really jump off the page as guys immediately ready. Alen Hanson tops the list as the most worthy. He’s had an up and down season at the plate, but should be a no brainer when rosters expand in September. Gift Ngoepe might fill the September role previously played by Chase d’Arnaud as a middle infield defensive replacement and pinch runner. He’ll need to be added to the 40-man roster by the end of the season or the Pirates risk losing him to minor league free agency. Radhames Liz is excelling in his AAA stint and hopefully the Pirates have worked their magic on the struggling righty. He’d be in line for a call up now, but there isn’t anywhere to put him. Even if he’s underperforming, Tony Sanchez is a given in September. I’d draw the rest of the call ups from the usual suspects who’ve ridden on the I-70 taxi all season.
To Indy
Josh Bell – He could probably hold his own in the majors right now and no one is blocking him at first base in AAA. As a guy who the Pirates likely hope to help the big league club next season, PA’s against AAA pitching could be very helpful.
Adam Frazier – Frazier’s still a bit fringy due to his lack of power, but the contact skills and his ability to hit to all fields appears legit. He’s a guy who teams simply won’t be able to employ shifts against, and he provides solid defense at a number of premium defensive positions.
Dan Gamache – A little overage in AA, Gamache appears due for a promotion. He spent a good chunk of 2014 in Altoona, so he has nothing left to prove there.
Of course, all three might stay put just to help the Curve make a playoff push.
To Altoona
Montana DuRapau – I’m not sure if there is a more intriguing player in the system right now. DuRapau has already earned one promotion this season and he’s continued to dominate posting a 1.00 ERA and a 10.33 K:BB in 36 innings. This could be a case of smoke and mirrors with an advanced pitcher with solid breaking stuff dominating raw A ball hitters. Or the Pirates have a fast moving finesse reliever. Either way, more time in Bradenton is doing him no good and Altoona needs pitching to stay in the playoff race.
Harold Ramirez – The Pirates can afford to take it slow with Ramirez, but there is a place for him in center field in Altoona. If he’s not shooting up your prospect list, he should be.
Stephen Tarpley – Altoona needs pitching and Tarpley has dominated A ball to the point where I believe he could skip the FSL entirely. This would be a very aggressive promotion, but I don’t think it would hurt to challenge Tarpley now and have him repeat the level next season.
Clay Holmes – As I’ve pointed out before, pitchers who’ve had Tommy John have an expiration date. The Pirates should push Holmes hard given his solid start in Bradenton. It’s not a lot of time there, but why waste what innings he has left in A+? The faster they can get him to the majors, the better off they are.
To Bradenton
Yeudy Garcia – He might be the best Pirates prospect in a long time that hardly anyone seems to be talking about. He’s a power pitcher with tons of upside who has showed success in an aggressive promotion to full season ball. Because he’s already gotten one aggressive push this year, maybe he’d do well to spend the entire year in A ball. Then again, he’s a little old for the level.
Jerrick Suiter – Here’s a guy who’s been quietly consistent. He’s a little old for the SAL and with the promotion of Barrett Barnes to Altoona, there is room for him in the Bradenton outfield.
Sam Street – Not a major prospect, but again he’s too old for the level and he’s doing good things. Excellent control and he’s getting enough K’s to think he no longer belongs.
To Low A West Virginia
No one – I think there are players who have earned a promotion to full season West Virginia, but there just isn’t anywhere to put them. If Suiter gets promoted, either Ty Moore or Logan Hill should get a taste and then a spot in the FSL next spring. Carlos Munoz has crushed Appy League pitching to the point where a full season trial would be interesting, but 2014 supplemental pick Connor Joe needs all the reps he can get at first base. The best bet might be Nick Hibbing who, as a drafted senior from Iowa, would ideally move quickly if he’s any kind of prospect.
To SS West Virginia
Carlos Munoz – It’s easy to want to promote a guy immediately following a three home run night, but he was dominating the Appy in 90+ PA’s even before that. I have no idea what the Pirates have in Munoz, but the .287 ISO, 8.4% K rate and the BABIP lower than his batting average he carried at the time this piece was written makes me want to find out more.
Ke’Bryan Hayes – As it stands right now, Hayes will have a much better pro debut than his dad Charlie did. There isn’t a lot of room for him in short season, but I suspect he’ll be the full time 3B in the other WV next spring meaning the Pirates will need to find AB’s for Mitchell Tolman somewhere else anyway.
I don’t really believe in promotion between rookie leagues so I won’t bother talking about Bristol.
As you look over the list, the Pirates have a considerable amount of players busting out or, at the very least, maintaining some high level performances from previous seasons. While there is plenty to worry about with injuries to important pitchers, there are an awful lot of good young players making moves. Some of these could be traded at the deadline, but those that remain should be challenged in a new city before the end of the season.
]]>
Gentle giant Glasnow should be held back only for a premium deal
Photo via MiLB.com
Recently, I looked at players the Pirates should consider trading at the deadline this year. Now I’ll look at players who I think they should keep. A couple of things to keep in mind on this list. First, everyone’s on the table for the right deal in my opinion. If the Cubs offered Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo (they won’t) for Andrew McCutchen, I’d happily pass along my thoughts on the best italian beef in the Windy City. There are simply guys I’d need a little more value to move than the average bear. Second, they’re also guys you might think are on the table. Clearly, the Pirates aren’t shopping the bulk of their major league core right now and there is no sense in writing about it.
Jameson Taillon
For those of you who regularly read The Point of Pittsburgh, you might be surprised to see my inclusion of Jameson Taillon on the list of players to protect after I wrote how the Pirates should rush him to the majors because his elbow is a ticking time bomb. My opinion hasn’t changed in the last two weeks, but I’m looking at the situation from a very different lens.
Right now, Taillon’s trade value has never been lower despite the fact that he could potentially pitch in the majors this season. In the short run, his contributions on the field will likely be greater than what the Pirates can get for him on the market. He offers more value as a player than as a chip at this point.
At some point, there will be a tipping point where the risk of a re-injury, along with his rebounding trade value, will outstrip his on-the-field value if he reaches just 70% of his potential. Until that time, the Pirates should take the quality innings he gives them before eventually trading him at a point in his career that feels uncomfortable. By that point, they’ll be able to maximize their return for him after having enjoyed several years of cheap control.
Harold Ramirez
He’s only got about 100 plate appearances under his belt in Bradenton, but Harold Ramirez might just be breaking out in a big way. After OPS’ing in the mid to upper .700’s the last two seasons, Ramirez is beating that number by nearly 200 points. Some of that is caused by a BABIP-inflated batting average, but he’s also increased his walk rate while slightly decreasing his strikeout rate. In the end, he’s making solid contact, putting the ball in play and making the most of his opportunities.
I don’t think anyone knows what Ramirez will become, but it might make sense to play wait and see with him. Even though he’s outperforming other former top prospects at a younger age in A+ during his first 100 PA’s, he still isn’t capturing the attention many of them did. While Ramirez received a $1M bonus on the open market, I’m not sure he’d carry the same kind of trade value as even his struggling Bradenton teammate Austin Meadows at this point. The Pirates should wait to see if he establishes himself rather than sell on him before he maximizes his value.
Gregory Polanco
While many would probably place Polanco in the core of the team, it’s getting hard not to notice his less than ideal production at the plate in 2015. Polanco’s been excellent when he gets on base, but his mid .600’s OPS simply isn’t getting the job done for right field and he hasn’t established himself as the long term solution at the position. In truth, there is a greater need to improve in the short term at the position now than there was in 2013 when the Pirates added Marlon Byrd to play over Jose Tabata.
An opportunistic GM might try to work him into a deal since he’s not living up to his potential at the majors in the early going of his career, hoping the Pirates might be willing to share the risk on him. I’m not giving up on him and I hope the Pirates’ front office doesn’t either. He’s just not ready and another minor league stint for him might be helpful at this time.
Pedro Alvarez
Let me make it clear. I don’t expect Pedro Alvarez to be a Pirate for much longer, but at the moment they don’t have a clear succession plan at first base. If he doesn’t get traded, Josh Bell is the heir apparent while Korean Byung-ho Park is a potential offseason splurge. Neither will likely be ready to be the leading option by opening day 2016, hence the need for more Pedro.
The glove on the other side of the infield still isn’t working for Pedro and his bat played better at third. However, they’re getting more production from the left side of the plate at first than they have in all but one of the last five years. Alvarez is not the ideal solution, but he’s not been a complete loss over there either. He’s good enough to be a place holder even if the Pirates need to do better long term.
Tyler Glasnow
Let’s run a real quick check list:
Does a pitcher have 6+ years of control? Yes
Does a pitcher reach the mid to upper 90’s with his fastball? Yes
Has the pitcher shown improving control, even if in a small sample size? Yes
Has the ulnar collateral ligament in his throwing arm always been in his elbow? Yes
Had Glasnow elected to go to college, he’d have returned to the draft last year. Given the same development trajectory, it’s not out of the question that he’d have become the first pitcher off the board. Most of the time prep players are right to take the money. Tyler Glasnow is the rare exception.
Like any prospect, Glasnow is not a sure thing to reach his ceiling, but his ceiling is so high. He and Gerrit Cole have the potential to be the best 1-2 punch in baseball after Glasnow establishes himself. Barring major injury, the worst we can expect from Glasnow at this point is late innings relief help. He’s the right combination of ceiling and floor where he’s very likely to help another team beat you down the road and the cost to replace him with another similar player if he reaches his potential would be astronomical.
***
Again for the right deal, the Pirates should part ways with any of these players and the right deal would be more realistic than the one I noted above for McCutchen. However, they should not be the ones introducing the above names into the conversation.
]]>
Max Moroff has got off to a strong start in AA so far this year
Photo via MiLB (Mark Olsen)
The minor league season hasn’t even been one month, but as the calendar flips to May, a natural tendency is to evaluate how things have gone so far. Mike Bradley, Steve DiMiceli, and I thought it would be a good time to each look at three positive and negative trendlines so far down on the Pirates’ farm.
KEVIN’S POSITIVES
1. Max Moroff, 2B, Altoona — Moroff was drafted in the 16th round back in 2012 out of high school in Florida. He was older for his draft class, but has steadily progressed up the minor league ladder and is an age-22 year old in AA this season, which is right on track for what is considered a prospect at that level. He lacked the range to stay at SS, so the Pirates moved him to 2B last year, where he has continued to play this year at Altoona.
Prior to this season, Moroff had a pretty sketchy hit tool, but he always had good walk rates (albeit with high K rates around 22%). This year, Moroff has kept the great walk rate (14.1%), cut down on the K rate (14.1%) and is tearing the cover off the ball with a triple slash of .297 AVG/.400 OBP/.453 SLG. If the Pirates can somehow parlay Moroff into the middle infield picture, even as a utility player, that would be a huge win.
2. Jin-de Jhang, C, Bradenton — Full disclosure: Prior to the start of this season, I have been a Jhang doubter. In 2014, due to the quasi-logjam at catcher in the system, mostly due to the presence of newly-drafted Reese McGuire, Jhang was forced to play at Bradenton as a 21-year old that skipped Low A. Predictably, this did not end well, as Jhang put up a triple slash of .219 AVG/.263 OBP/.301 SLG.
This year, Jhang is repeating the level at age-22 and splitting time with McGuire at catcher and also DH’ing. He has gone full supernova in the month of April with a scorching line of .431 AVG/.474 OBP/.490 SLG in 51 at-bats. Hot month? Benefit of repeating the level? Maturing as a hitter? Whatever it is, Jhang has put himself back on the map of catching depth prospects for the Pirates, even if there is very little extra-base power in the bat.
3. Tyler Glasnow, RHP, Altoona — Really going out on a limb here, Kevin. I know…coming into the season he was either the #1 or #2 prospect in the whole system. But for me, I wanted to see him prove it at the meat grinder level of AA before I totally bought in. So far, he’s faring quite well in 16 IP with 6 BB, 17 K, and a 1.08 ERA.
These numbers aren’t quite his video-game-on-rookie-level numbers from 2014, but it would be unrealistic to expect that level of dominance to continue as he progresses. The blazing upper 90’s fastball is his calling card, but a plus curveball and developing changeup are what will decide how successful Glasnow is in the Majors. It wouldn’t be surprising to see him promoted in August to AAA and then put himself in line for a rotation look in Pittsburgh in July 2016.
KEVIN’S NEGATIVES
1. Luis Heredia — Heredia has yet to be assigned to a team this year due to poor conditioning coming into the year. Again. His stuff has backed up, as he now sits low 90’s on his fastball. Word on the street is that he’s not very coachable. Add it up all and he’s slip sliding off of my prospect radar and just about every other prospect evaluator’s radar, even as a 20-year old.
2. Barrett Barnes/Harold Ramirez/Connor Joe — The ability to stay healthy is the unofficial 6th tool for a player. These three players are all showing in their careers that they have the inability to do so. Ramirez and Joe have yet to play this season, while Barnes got into a whole five games before going down.
3. Reese McGuire, C, Bradenton — Drafted as the catcher of the future in 2013, McGuire has demonstrated above-average defensive skills, but his bat is lagging far behind. His walk rates are sub-par and he has almost no power in his bat, making him Pittsburgh’s version of the Padres’ Austin Hedges.
STEVE’S POSITIVES
1. Cole Tucker, SS, West Virginia — He’s got an empty batting average, but he’s 18 and holding his own in full season baseball. There is something to be said for that.
2. Zack Dodson, LHP, Altoona — His ceiling is probably pretty low, but it’s nice see him finally beginning to figure things out.
3. Max Moroff, 2B, Altoona — With Dilson Herrera gone and thriving in the Mets system, the Pirates didn’t have many interesting middle infield solutions in the upper minors till now. In a small sample size, his reduced K rate and all around BB:K make me think his hot start could be sustainable. This is why you draft guys at elite positions (Moroff was drafted as a SS) — you can move them off position later. The high BABIP gives me concerns.
STEVE’S NEGATIVES
1. Wyatt Mathisen, 3B, Bradenton — Everyone’s waiting for him to be Neil Walker and his slight up tick in hitting last season suggested he might be figuring it out. His slow start is disappointing.
2. Jose Tabata, OF, Indianapolis/exiled — The Pirates former LF’er of the future is mired so deep in the organization’s doghouse that he only has 48 PA’s for Indy, good for 9th on the Indians. It’s strange for me to feel sorry for someone saddled with millions of dollars, but I do. He could help a few major league teams, but his long term deal has him bound to Pittsburgh.
3. Alen Hansen, 2B, Indianapolis — I’ve often had concerns about how well Alen Hansen would do in the upper minors and, unfortunately, they appear to be legit. He’s still very young for AAA, but after not really killing it in Altoona, I’ll have to start questioning his upside if he can’t turn it around.
MICHAEL’S POSITIVES
1. Josh Bell, Max Moroff and Jin-De Jhang — All three have been hitting the lights out. Everyone knows Bell, but possibly not Moroff and Jhang. Moroff is a SS who is currently playing 2B in Altoona, due to Gift Ngeope playing SS (and could be doing this to focus on his bat). Jhang is in Bradenton catching some, playing some, and playing some DH.
2. Steve Lombardozzi and Deibinson Romero, Indianapolis — Both are looking like good infield depth options. Most people know Lombardozzi by now, as he was part of the much dissected Doug Fister trade, but Romero isn’t a household name. In the winter Steamer projected him to have the highest minor league WAR of all the minor league free agents. Romero has backed it up so far slashing .320/.463 /.640 with 4 HRs.
3. Subjectively it looks as if the Pirates’ high minors are dwarfing most teams in prospects. There are some terrible AA and AAA teams Indy and Altoona have been playing so far.
MICHAEL’S NEGATIVES
1. Stetson Allie, OF, Altoona — Allie isn’t taking the next step on offense so far this season. We all know about his power and beautiful BP swing but the average isn’t getting any better. He’s only hitting .231 and has 23 K’s to only 5 BB’s. His ship is starting to sail away without him.
2. The Altoona pitchers have done well on the scoreboard and have given up the least amount of hits in the Eastern League, but they also are last in the Eastern in K’s by 19 over the second to last team.
3. Nick Kingham, RHP, Indianapolis — Kingham is supposedly major league ready and waiting in the wings in AAA, but his starts haven’t been dominating. He has a great defense behind him, but his ERA is 4.85 through five starts. Until he can dominate AAA hitters he’ll marinate in the International League.
]]>
When will Taillon debut in Pittsburgh in 2015?
Photo via Inside Pitch
Follow The Point of Pittsburgh on Twitter @thepointofpgh or like us on Facebook.
It’s prospect season! That’s the time of year between the end of the winter meetings and when pitchers and catchers report dedicated to organization ranking lists and Top 100’s. It’s down time for everyone but the nerdiest of fans. We at The Point of Pittsburgh decided to join the fun. Where most lists stop at ten or thirty, we’re going all the way up to forty making ours the nerdiest list around.
Each of us completed our individual lists and then aggregated them into a complete list. Today, we’ll look at the top ten. Ages in parentheses are as of July 1st, 2015. We projected what level the player will spend the majority of the 2015 season, as well. In case you missed them, here are some links:
10. Harold Ramirez (20) OF, A+
Kevin Creagh – Has all the tools to be a starting OF, but I am a sizeist. It’s hard to see his 5’10” frame (yes, I know Cutch is the same height) starting for the Pirates long-term. Probable trade chip in the future
Steve DiMiceli – I think people overlook what he’s done at his age. He’s a potential Five Tool centerfielder, and even though you wouldn’t know it from the Pirates organization, they don’t grow on trees.
Michael Bradley – Potential 4 tool guy (minus the power). Injuries robbed him of time in ’14 but he’s still very young.
9. Elias Diaz (24) C, AAA/MLB
Michael – A plus backup catcher floor with a ceiling to be an average starter. Diaz breakout in ’14 gives the “FranChrisco” tandem some depth and provides a bridge to McGuire.
Steve – Has the defensive makings of a solid back up catcher, but I’d like to see the bat play a little higher at AAA before I’d call him the heir apparent for the starting catching role as some presume.
Kevin –If he continues to progress at AAA in 2015, Diaz could be 2016’s opening day catcher. Bat could be above-avg for position
8. Adrian Sampson (23) RHP, AAA
Steve – Sampson is another great example of why you shouldn’t lose your crap on a player when the Pirates move them quickly. Looking like a great back-of-rotation innings eater, but I bet he’ll reach that ceiling somewhere else.
Kevin – Broke out in 2014, probably a #4 long term. Could see the Majors in 2015 down the stretch
7. Reese McGuire (20) C, A+
Kevin – Touted as catcher of the future. Defense said to be Major League ready right now, but alarming lack of power (even doubles) is a flag for me. Yes, he’s young, but it was an empty average in 2014
Steve – His solid contact skills and defense will carry him through the minors but his ceiling is Ryan Hanigan if he doesn’t develop a little pop.
Michael – When you have a player that scouts enjoy watching play defense you know you have a gem. McGuire supposedly handles pitchers like a ML vet and has hit enough to keep getting promoted. He hasn’t shown a giant platoon split yet and is crazy young for an American born player. Ceiling is HIGH but his bat could fail.
6. Alen Hanson (22) 2B, AAA
Steve – I still have questions about whether or not the bat will translate to the majors, but he still has upside even at second base if he gets it together.
Michael – While he might be lower on everyone else’s list, the fact that he could contribute TODAY gets him this high. He’s super young, doesn’t have a large platoon split, could play some short and has JHay potential.
Kevin – Brings a nice blend of power/speed to 2B position. Attitude concerns lead me to believe that Pirates would move him in the right deal. Kang may have been a hedge for such a move
5. Josh Bell (22) RF/1B, AA/AAA
Kevin –If the power develops this year, could be 2016’s 1B. Move to 1B dings his value a touch, so #5 feels right
Michael – Probably the lowest you’ll see Bell ranked. His hit tool is OK, his defense is OK, his patience and power is OK for a corner. He’s not super young anymore. He’s an good prospect that could turn into a Nick Swisher type or a switch hitting Travis Snider.
Steve – While his second half power outage was concerning, Bell makes for a rare combination of pop and plate discipline. He could be heading towards that high ceiling of his.
4. Nick Kingham (23) RHP, AAA/MLB
Michael – While he’s a pitcher and has some of the same drawbacks that pitchers do, his risk is less. First, he’s succeeded at AA and a little at AAA. Second, he has the command and control it’s just a question of whether his stuff is good enough.
Steve – There is no such thing as a safe pitching prospect, but my goodness does Kingham feel like it. He likely won’t be more than a 3 but his ability to eat innings will play anywhere in the rotation.
Kevin – Solid #3 for me, also on verge of Majors
3. Austin Meadows (20) OF, A+
Kevin – Dynamic talent that was beset by hamstring injury in 2014. If he performs as expected, should be #2 on this list next year behind Glasnow
Steve – Meadows is still so far away, but if he can stay healthy while mashing A+ pitching as a third year pro, I suspect he’ll earn elite status.
Michael – The ceiling (5 tool star), the fact he can stick in CF and mainly the fact that he’s not a pitcher vault him up to #1 (for me).
2. Tyler Glasnow (21) RHP, AA
Michael – He’s number two mainly due to the fact that very few pitchers reach their ceiling or stay healthy. Gerrit Cole was more talented than him and still is only a 2 WAR player so far.
Kevin – May have higher upside than Taillon, but control still a slight concern, plus needing to prove it at AA. Enviable problem to choose between them
Steve – Glasnow has the highest ceiling in the system, but I still have concerns with his floor thanks to control. I think he’s a major leaguer but will he start?
1. Jameson Taillon (23) RHP, AAA/MLB
Kevin – Still a #2 level pitcher for me, on verge of Majors, fastball-curve combo should make him AJ Burnett
Steve – Tommy John surgery doesn’t even scare me anymore. Taillon looked like he could jump into a major league rotation as a solid 4 when I saw him pitch in Altoona. He’s a great combination of ceiling and floor.
Michael -Tommy John and the lack of a third plus pitch overcome the makeup, the body and his stellar appearance as a Canadian pitcher in the World Baseball Classic.
****
Follow The Point of Pittsburgh on Twitter @thepointofpgh or like us on Facebook.
Follow Steve on Twitter @SteveDiMiceli
]]>