Chad Kuhl’s path to the majors isn’t so easy right now.

We’ve heard a lot of talk, really since April, that the Pirates need to promote pitching prospects from the farm system to mend their starting pitching issues. In truth many talking heads had decided the rotation wasn’t good enough to begin with. A bad couple of turns through the rotation in Pittsburgh and the hot start on the mound by top prospects Tyler Glasnow and Jameson Taillon, as well as the lesser regarded Steven Brault and the heretofore unknown-turned-household-name Chad Kuhl, had some people ready for a full scale line change. Much to their chagrin, the only AAA starter promoted thus far has been Wilfredo Boscan for middle relief duty.

If everyone’s favorite quarterback is the backup, it stands to reason that people should also love their minor league pitchers. Evidently, the Pirates do as well with Neal Huntington stating that Taillon, Glasnow and Kuhl would all be called up to be starters.  This simplifies the situation to a certain extent as we know what their roles will be, but things have changed a little. Things have changed at the top of the totem pole and the overall the situation is a little more complicated.

Simply, the rotation doesn’t suck as bad. Jon Niese and Jeff Locke have pitched better of late. Niese has put together four consecutive strong starts going 25.66666667 innings while allowing only 7 earned runs with 5 walks to 16 strikeouts. The longball has still been an issue for him, but it’s difficult to see him coming out of the rotation if he’s pitching the way he is currently. When Jeff Locke was on his way to the All Star game, pundits were falling all over themselves to declare him lucky based on advanced statistics. None came to his aid when he posted a .409 BABIP in April. That evened out and then some in his 9 shutout innings in Puerto Rico Miami. Locke didn’t catch Zika against the Marlins, but he may be catching fire. Of course, that doesn’t count because no one saw as they were watching Game One of the Stanley Cup finals. He’s not a staff ace or an All Star again, but take two bad innings out of the equation and he’s been pretty steady.

The good news for those two is that Juan Nicasio makes for the obvious choice to lose his role as a starter. Not only has his form degraded (6.75 ERA in May), but he makes the most natural choice of the three to help the bullpen. He’s struggled with the longevity of his starts which might also suggest that shorter outing may improve his effectiveness. When he was signed, I thought he could shorten games by pitching in the sixth inning or as the Joe Blanton type, but shame on me, I had Arquimedes Caminero in the seventh. Thanks to Neftali Feliz stepping into the back end, I think he could assume that increasingly important swingman role in the bullpen.

His replacement is all but certainly Taillon. Two years of mending TJ and other ailments and the young Texan doesn’t appear to have much further to go before he finally makes his major league debut. We can likely count the days on two hands.  While Kuhl leads the International League in ERA and Glasnow in K/9 at the time this piece was written, Taillon’s overall stuff and statistical package make him appear the most ready to come in and succeed right now.

One problem. He has an innings limit due to so much time off from live baseball and the organization has been mum on the specifics. The Pirates wisely skipped one of his starts in AAA, but it’s difficult to imagine him staying in the rotation much past the end of August. For me, the natural fit for Kuhl could come as Taillon’s eventual replacement. Don’t get me wrong, Kuhl’s numbers have been excellent and his power sinker has generated a ton of ground ball outs. While he’s struck out at a higher rate than earlier in his career, he still hasn’t struck them out at a high enough rate to suggest an easy transition to the show. Kuhl’s secondary pitches likely still need work as major league hitters can barrel a sinker if they know its coming. On top of that, he’s only spent two months in Indy. Rather than Super Two, real developmental concerns and experience could be holding Kuhl back.

Neither Niese nor Locke will block Glasnow from the majors, but they could allow the Pirates to apply another coat of polish in AAA before he gets called up. While Glasnow has an excellent fastball and a curve to match, his changeup needs work and a more regular place in his arsenal according to multiple outlets. On top of that his control has become more erratic in the month of May (4.63 BB/9 after managing 3 BB/9 in April). His strikeout rate remains excellent and his overall numbers merit a promotion despite the walk rate spike. However, the numbers aren’t always a great indicator of readiness, just ask Aaron Blair and the Atlanta Braves earlier this season. Eventually, he’ll replace one of Niese or Locke, but not because a date has past where the Bucs believe they can save some cash on him over his career. Ultimately, I think injury rather than inability could provide the push needed to facilitate his promotion. If that doesn’t happen, it will be when he’s truly ready. For now, he can focus on getting better rather than winning the NL Central.

If Jameson Taillon is the most major league ready player in the Pirates’ system, Josh Bell could be number two. No one talks about him because the need simply isn’t there. Not only is he blocked at first base, but he’s blocked on the bench as well. Without including defensive replacement Sean Rodriguez, the Pirates have six corner players with 50 PAs who are OPSing better than .750. To put that in perspective, the Cubs have four counting Matt Szczur, who may or may not get to fifty by the time this is published. Even though Bell is currently on fire after a bit of a slump, there isn’t a peep about his promotion on the internet, not even to serve as DH in the just-completed Texas series. He may get what very few Pirates prospects over the last 25 years have gotten: an entire season to simply get better in the minors.

Taillon’s path to the majors is clear, but Glasnow and Kuhl might have a more meandering trail to follow. To continue the metaphor, Bell is just wandering around the forest hoping to find a blaze marking.  This has nothing to do with money, but improved performances by the players ahead of them reducing the sense of urgency to call prospects up fast and before they’re ready. As I noted with in the case of Glasnow, or four in the case of Bell, we’re almost to the point in the season where elite prospects could serve as depth. Until then, there aren’t any guarantees that the guys in the minors can provide a better performance than those already on the big club, but giving them a little extra time could be make Glasnow, Kuhl and Bell better players in September or next season than they would be focusing on results over development in the majors.

Francisco Cervelli will be framing pitches and causing females to swoon for three more years in Pittsburgh.
Photo by Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

During lunchtime on Tuesday, the Pittsburgh Pirates announced that catcher Francisco Cervelli was signed to a 3 yr/$31M extension.  This was a move that we both forecast and advocated.  With this signing, the entire set of eight starting position players are now under team control for 2017.  Here’s the prices for each of them:

• C Francisco Cervelli — $9M
• 1B John Jaso — $4M
• 2B Josh Harrison — $7.75M
• SS Jordy Mercer — $3.5M (arb. estimate)
• 3B Jung-ho Kang — $2.75M
• LF Starling Marte — $5.33M
• CF Andrew McCutchen — $14.2M
• RF Gregory Polanco — $1.6M
• TOTAL — $48.13M

Prior to this extension, I was under the impression that the Pirates current contention window was going to start to close after the 2017 season.  After 2017, Francisco Liriano would be a free agent, Francisco Cervelli would have already been gone for a year, and the Pirates would be making the decision on whether or not to trade Andrew McCutchen prior to his final team option year of 2018.

One signing shouldn’t alter my thinking on things, but this signing is pointing me to two thoughts:

• The Pirates seem serious about fielding a strong contender in 2017
• The window may be pried open to 2018 while they retain McCutchen on his team option

With the imminent arrival of Tyler Glasnow and Jameson Taillon this season, the 2017 rotation is shaping up to be both potentially potent and economical.

• Gerrit Cole — $6.25M (arb. estimate)
• Francisco Liriano — $13.67M
• Tyler Glasnow — $0.5M
• Jameson Taillon — $0.5M
• TOTAL — $20.92M

If you add up the starting eight plus the top four pitchers, as shown above, you get $69.05M.  Assuming a $110M payroll, that leaves $41M of payroll flexibility to fill out the bench, bullpen, and fifth starter.  And when you factor in that some of those 13 remaining spots could be filled by players on minimum salaries (Josh Bell, Alen Hanson) or small salaries like Chris Stewart’s $1.4M, that leaves even more money to invest on key areas.  Some of the monies will potentially be allocated to arb-eligible players like Tony Watson, Juan Nicasio, and Jared Hughes, but there could still be a couple of mid-size splurges.

The free agent market this offseason is shaping up to be a desolate wasteland of available talent, but perhaps the Pirates may go the trade route with teams either looking to shed salaries or in the midst of rebuilding efforts.

With Cervelli’s signing in the books, the Pirates can now potentially control all the players shown above in 2018, with the exception of Francisco Liriano.  I still don’t believe the Pirates will be able or willing to retain McCutchen whenever he reaches free agency after 2018, but this move at least plants the tiniest of seeds that it is possible.  Very tiny.  I’m still being realistic to the financial aspects of such a long-term move and still believe that the window can be extended even further if McCutchen is traded for the right mix of both short and long-term assets.

But now the Pirates have locked up a catcher at below-market rates that should at least retain league-average offense and plus defensive chops, especially in the all-important pitch framing category.  Having a catcher that’s not a zero offensively at the plate is a huge bonus and helps lengthen the lineup, especially when that catcher can get on-base with the frequency that Cervelli possesses.

The Pirates only make a signing when it works for them in terms of years and cash outlay.  The years are why players like Russell Martin and JA Happ are now plying their trades north of the border.  Cervelli wanted to stay here and the Pirates agreed they wanted him here for the correct financial terms.

How the Pirates will build off of this move in the offseason, quite a ways from now of course, is what will reveal their belief in the team moving forward.  This move is a good sign.

I included the Grizzlies after watching The Revenant last night

Ironically, as I write this I’m preparing to go to a AAA game.  No, it isn’t the Indianapolis Indians, as I’ll actually be watching the Charlotte Knights take on the Durham Bulls.

As I skim through the rosters for both teams I recognize some names.  Blake Snell of the Bulls and Tim Anderson and Matt Davidson of the Knights are very good prospects, but I’m also seeing Chris Volstad, Travis Ishikawa and Jaff Decker.

As Alabama said in there 1994 song, “Our ball club is minor league but at least it’s AAA”:

While there is some good talent for both teams, there are only maybe 2-3 legit prospects for both the Bulls (Rays) and the Knights (White Sox).  This is nothing like the Pirates AAA squad at Indy.    I’ve mentioned subtly in my articles this year, but my boss KC (I guess we’re the Sunshine Band?) told me to try my best to inform the TPOP readership of how good the Pirates AAA squad currently stands.  Well here goes:

First, coming up with comps that TPOP and Pirate fans will know is a little tricky.   Also, HT to the rest of the Sunshine Band for helping me tighten up this list.  I organized the list so that it could read like a starting lineup, partial rotation and partial bullpen.  It’s just coincidence that our eight could be put into a lineup… and a credit due to the position flexibility of the players.

The Pseudo Prospects:

Gift Ngoepe can’t hit RH pitchers worth a darn, but his glove is amazing, he hits LHP well and he has good pop and speed for a SS.

Dan Gamache hits LH, can play all infield positions and has a good amount of patience at the plate.   He might not quite hit enough, but he could reach that Rob Mackowiak ceiling.

Boy is Willy Garcia huge but he can still stay play a decent CF and has a cannon for an arm.   Also, he has great splits against LHP and should be able to one arm homers the opposite way at PNC.   His ceiling of Jose Guillen is a pipe dream and his most likely of Craig Wilson is totally an offensive comparison.

The C+ Prospects:

Adam Frazier’s position flexibility is what will get him called up; that and his ability to avoid striking out (lifetime K% of 11.5%).  Frazier also has the “correct” platoon split, as he hits better against RHP than LHP ( .331/.390/.424 in 331 ABs against RHP last year).   Cross your fingers and hope for Ben Zobrist or Mark Ellis.

My son’s name is Max Anthony and he’s a wildcard.  Max Anthony Moroff is a wild card as well.  Moroff has one less elite minor league season than Frazier, but he’s two years younger at the same level.  He looks like a good fit at 2B where I watched him display plus range in Altoona last year.  He’s scuffling a little at AAA this year but he’s not needed for a while.  By June of ’17 he could be called up to infuse some life into the offense like….

…Alen Hanson is doing as we speak.   Hanson is heading to Pittsburgh to fill in for Starling Marte while he’s on paternity leave.  Hanson has been on prospect folks’ radar for a long time.   He’s a guy that can fill up the stat sheet with 2B, 3B, HR’s and SBs   Hanson is still young and could be our 2B for a long time once he gets the opportunity.

One of the big missing players this season has been Elias Diaz.  Diaz, the cannon-armed cat of a catcher, needed arthroscopic surgery to clean up his elbow and has been on the DL.  Diaz will not hit like Mike Piazza in the show but as long as he hits like Michael Lavalliere that will be fine.  Diaz also has a strong platoon split, as he crushes LHP, which might be convenient as he will probably backup initially.

The Bullpen(?) Triumvirate 

Chad Kuhl might end up as a back end starter with his good two pitch mix and Steven Brault might use his cutter to go 5-6 innings in the show.   Trevor Williams is still the new guy with not many innings due to some minor injuries and he could be a starter for the Bucs as well.  My money, and most other people’s, is that they’ll all be relievers; but they’ll be really good relievers.  Look at the stability Melancon, Watson and Hughes have brought to the bullpen the last few years.  The three guys in AAA could do the same thing for 6+ years and for cheap.

The Hopeful Cornerstones

Can Josh Bell replicate the smooth swing of Will Clark?

I love the Will Clark comp for Josh Bell (H/T Steve DiMiceli) as Bell’s at-bats harken back to Clark.   Bell battles at the plate and doesn’t give the pitchers anything.  He also stings the balls and rarely K’s.  He could be a batting champion and his makeup is incredible.  The sky is the limit.

We can’t say much more about Glasnow and Taillon that hasn’t been said.   Taillon was a big investment that hasn’t been utilized yet, but looks solid and Glasnow looks likes a lottery ticket that may hit.  We’re lucky to have these two gems and hope they can lock down rotation spots for a while.

Final thought

Realize all these players will receive the league minimum salary for three years (plus the first half season if past Super Two), then have cheap arbitration salaries for a couple more.  This gives our team tremendous flexibility with its 25 man roster.

Back in the dark ages of 1997 the Pirates had a whole payroll of $9,071,667 but the team was terrible.  In a couple years a large portion of the team could be making the league minimum and yet be really good.  That’s what a stellar minor league system can do for you.

Will Josh Bell be joining 2011 draft mate Gerrit Cole in Pittsburgh soon?

I prescribe to the old scouting maxim that a team should get one starter and one bench/bullpen guy out of each draft, in order to call it a successful draft.  Getting some talent out of each successive draft is important to keep the young, cost-controlled talent faucet flowing.  Now, getting two contributors to the Majors out of forty draft picks may sound easy (that’s only a 5% success rate!), but it’s incredibly difficult.

Firstly, not every player drafted gets signed by the team.  Out of the (now) 40 draft rounds, the Pirates may only sign 30 guys.  Some guys are drafted as flyers, to see if the team can tempt them to give up riches three years down the road for the opportunity to start playing professional ball now.  Secondly, others are signed with the intent to be purely organizational soldiers — players that occupy roster spots in the lower levels to fill rosters and provide some stability to a roster.  These guys are never really expected to advance past Double-A, with most shaking out of the system after just a year or two.  Most of the talent that the team is actively interested in is within the first 10 rounds of the draft, so now you’re really dealing with a 20% success rate.

We’re now one month out from the 2016 MLB Draft that will be held from June 9th-11th, so it’s fair to cast an eye back five years to the 2011 Draft.  It’s also said that it takes 4 to 5 years to truly evaluate a draft in whole, although I think some drafts are easier than others to know when the talent is not up to par, so let’s gaze upon a draft that I already consider a success that’s about to get even better.

The Pirates drafted first overall in 2011 and took a young flamethrowing pitcher out of UCLA named Gerrit Cole.  If the Pirates decided to kick their feet up and not draft anyone of note after Cole (like the Pirates seemingly did in the Dave Littlefield years after their 1st round picks), then this draft would be deemed a win by me.  Cole is an ace and those are a rare commodity in the game.  Don’t listen to people who ride the ebb and flows of every start and nitpick every facet of Cole’s inning-by-inning progression through a game — he’s an ace.  Cole is a horse that will consume 200+ innings, get better than a strikeout per inning, keep his ERA/FIP under 3.00, and (most tellingly for me) gets better as the game progress along.

Is Cole the best pitcher in the Majors?  No, he’s not, but that’s just as much a byproduct of the ridiculous pitching times that we live in more than anything.  Are there things he could do better, like holding runners on base, perhaps?  Sure.  No pitcher is a machine.  Except Arrieta.  He might be a machine.

But by the end of June, Cole may have some company in the Pirates’ rotation in the form of 2011 draft mate, 5th round pick Tyler Glasnow.  I wrote about why Glasnow won’t be up until at least mid-June (mark me down for June 11th in the office pool) and if you’re reading this article, you probably already know about Glasnow and his potential.

For me, Glasnow’s a #2 pitcher at his peak.  Cole is under control through 2019 and Glasnow is under control through 2022, so the Pirates will have their top two pitchers for at least three+ years together.  (Although not germane to this article about the 2011 draft, in 2017 the Pirates will also have Jameson Taillon in the rotation and the last year of Francisco Liriano.  Cole-Liriano-Glasnow-Taillon is a far different 1 through 4 than this year.)

Getting two top of the rotation pitchers (potentially) from one draft would be a bonanza.  But the cherry on top of the draft may also be arriving in Pittsburgh at some point this year in 2nd round pick, 1B Josh Bell.  I’ve not been the biggest Bell supporter in the past due to his lack of in-game power, but he’s forcing me to re-evaluate my opinion so far this year.  At Triple-A, Bell is off to a .290/.385/.450 start with 3 HR’s in his first 26 games.  He’s not threatening Joey Gallo for the minor league home run chase, but considering his single year high of homers is 13, this is a move in the right direction.

For an upcoming TPOP article, Steve, Michael, and I were coming up with some ceilings/floors/likely outcomes for various Pirates prospects.  For Bell, one of us tossed out a Will Clark ceiling and that one’s starting to grow on me.  Clark is in the Hall of Very Good, with great contact and moderate power for a 1B.  I think we would all take Clark’s career for Josh Bell.

So getting two stud pitchers and a starting 1B out of one draft?  That’s a bingo.  It would clearly be the most productive draft of Neal Huntington’s tenure, better than the foundational 2008 draft that produced Pedro Alvarez, Jordy Mercer, and Justin Wilson (who begat Francisco Cervelli), and far outpacing any of the others to date.

There are a few other players that could be the metaphorical sprinkles on top of the sundae in the form of Jason Creasy, Dan Gamache, and Clay Holmes, but none are stars and may just receive a cup of coffee (it at all).  If Glasnow and Bell can complement the work already being put forth by Cole, it really won’t matter.  And as a postscript, remember when I mentioned up-article about taking flyers on players?  The Pirates did that with a high school shortstop in the 20th round named Trea Turner.  The same stud prospect that will be up with the Nationals this year and a soon-to-be-fixture in their lineup at SS.  Now that would have been an epic draft.

For a refresher, July 1st is the cutoff for age:  for example if a player turns 23 after July 1st this would be his 22 year old season.

The average age is 23.61 and if you omit the 32 year old Antoan Richardson in AAA the average age becomes 23.5 which I think is pretty good.

A.J. Schugel who just got called up last week is the only 27 year old on the farm (assuming he comes back down) Ed Easley is the only 30 year old.

The oldest player is the aforementioned Richardson and the youngest is Ke’Bryan Hayes at 19.

The ROYGBP color scheme goes youngest to oldest with Reds and Oranges being the 19-23.  So, if you’re a reddish player in AAA or AA like Glasnow or Meadows/McGuire your future’s so bright….

Working my way down this chart so you can read along.  Let’s talk AAA.

AAA

Tyler Glasnow is very young and is one of the youngest in AAA per Baseball America, but he’s only three months younger than Max Moroff.

Jhondaniel Medina, while never on my prospect radar, is crazy young for AAA and this will cause me to pay more attention to him.

I think Stephen Brault and Trevor Williams’ age and non lights out stuff will get them to the bullpen to gain mph and become the next Watson and Hughes (hopefully),

Starter Chad Kuhl is young for AAA and is NOT on the 40 man.  He’d be a great trade chip to sell high on come this July or could be a Tony Watson type bullpen stalwart for many years.

Josh Bell is one month from being a 24 year old in AAA.   Hopefully he takes advantage of the time Jaso bought him and hits the ball like George Bell in 1989.

Jung Ho Kang is currently hitting like a 29 year old AAAA member but hopefully he starts beating up on the pitchers in the IL.   Darn you Chris Coghlan.

AA

Austin Meadows is crazy young for AA and would be knocking on the door at AAA if not for the orbital injury.  He’s almost two full years younger than Glasnow.

Catchers develop slower so Reese McGuire has history on his side.  His young age at AA is also a benefit.

Jin-De Jhang is two months from being a 22 year old in AA (a very good age for AA).  He has a strong arm, walks and hits RHP well.  He’s a good bet for a backup catcher adding to the Pirates depth.

Edwin Espinal is the only 22 year old in AA and is being giving the opportunity to break out this year.

Clay Holmes is young at 23 in Altoona but would probably be in AAA if not for the Tommy John surgery.

I’m one of the few remaining Stetson Allie fans, but he was old when he was drafted and is looking ancient in AA.   He needs to crush LHP and get to AAA.

On to High A and Bradenton.

High A

“Drive By” Cole Tucker is a choir boy whose body is a blank palette for a fan to dream on.   Long levers is the term of choice.  If the shortstop position is vacant when he returns this month due to Kevin Newman hitting his way to AA, Tucker might be the youngest player in Bradenton.    When you think about it, if Tucker hadn’t been injured he would have been the starting SS in Bradenton at an age TWO years younger than Newman.

Heredia is still a mountain of a being, but barely able to drink legally as a young one in high A.   I doubt he ever sees the show, but he’s still young enough to be on the right track.

I didn’t realize that Brandon Waddell was so young.   He’s a month away from being a 21 year old in High A and if he keeps up his performance of late he’ll be in AA soon.

Taylor Gushue was very young when he was drafted and was a bit of a wildcard due to the fact that he was a backup behind college superstar Mike Zunino most of his college career.   Gushue is hitting well in High A and might force Huntington’s hand if he keeps it up through midseason.

Jordan Luplow reeks of a Cardinal prospect: young enough to be given time to develop, solid hit tool and no perfect position.   If he becomes a Tommy Pham or a Steve Piscotty I would not be surprised.

Poor Connor Joe.  He is supposedly a tremendous teammate and person who has battled injuries, ineffectiveness and has been usurped by younger prospects.    I wouldn’t be surprised for him to wash out soon and join the Pirates’ minor league coaching staff.

Low A

Ke’Bryan Hayes is making everyone look old and inept, as he is playing very well at Low A creating a potential infield logjam at High A if he gets promoted.

Cole Tucker would still be young for Low A if he starts there vice High A.

Michael De La Cruz technically isn’t in Low A yet but will be if/when Tito Polo get bumped up to Bradenton.

Mitch Keller has been dominant in his first few starts but is still on the right side of 21.  If keeps this up he could see High A by midseason and force the Bucs to make a hard decision (High A or AA) for next year’s opening day.

Realistically, the group from Tito Polo down through Logan Sendelbach are the same age.   Polo is the most recognized name but he’s NOT really been recognized as much a prospect and needs a big breakout this year if he wants to surpass some of the OF prospects.   The most revered of all this fivesome is Carlos Munoz.   He’s a Mexican product, which leaves a bit of variance and he hits everywhere he goes, causing him to show up on the Baseball America Top 20 for the Appy League in 2015.   Hopefully he becomes our Matt Adams.

Mitchell Tolman is as good of a defensive 3B as I’ve watched live.    He’s got great instincts and has a cannon for an arm.   He could be a homegrown Brent Morel here in a couple years which is not a terrible thing for you chucklers.

You pretty much have to look for Taillon’s face on the side of a milk carton these past two years.

Today we round out TPOP’s top 40 rankings. Special thanks once again to all of our participants. I think we provoked some thoughts while we also got to highlight how much is still in the system.

Kevin Creagh (KC) – TPOP

Michael Bradley (MB) – TPOP

Kurt Hackimer (KH) – winitforus.com and soon-to-be TPOP writer

Steve DiMiceli (SD) – TPOP

10. Ke’Bryan Hayes (3B, 19)

KH – Hayes, Pittsburgh’s other first round pick, is also a good bet to stick around on the left side of the infield because of his strong arm and keen baseball instincts. The 19­ year old son of former Pirate Charlie Hayes is more muscular than most teenage prospects and has a swing that has already warranted Top 100 Prospects consideration from several publications.

KC – Good lineage, had strong debut in 2015, albeit in GCL. Anxious to see his full-season debut this year.

MB – Hayes is one of the reasons that I’m hoping Melancon and Cervelli get us some comp picks.  Hayes had a great first season and looks to have some serious upside.  I’m assuming he’ll be in Charleston this summer and I might have to take a trip down to watch him.

SD – I already bought in on Carloz Munoz’s rookie ball performance. Hayes’s sandwich pedigree should have him higher for me, but I’m in wait and see mode.

9. Kevin Newman (SS, 22)

KH – An already polished product of the historic Cape Cod League, Newman was considered as a safe selection for the Pirates at the 19 spot in the draft. He has line ­drive power, can hit for average, and has a good chance to stick at shortstop. The last part is critical because the Pirates are thin at short, which should allow Newman to rapidly climb the organizational ranks.

SD – Not the pro debut you’d like to see, but he could provide an average or better hit tool and stick at short. That’s not a bad combination.

MB – I’m totally swayed by Keith Law’s conviction to his top prospect status.  Law swears he’s a sure fire ML shortstop with an all fields approach with the bat.

KC – Low upside college SS was 2015 1st round pick. Bat appears to have no power in it.

8. Elias Diaz (C, 25)

SD – At the very least, Diaz should know where to sit in the dug out to get the best view of the game following his phantom call up in September. Looks like a solid backup at worst.

KC – Remains in the mix for catching work in the future for Pirates, but his bat stagnated last year in AAA. Seems more like a 50 game player than a 110 game player.

KH – Defensively, Diaz is the whole package. He’s got a strong arm, a sturdy glove, and the ability to properly manage a pitching staff. Offensively, he didn’t progress as well in 2015 as he did in his breakout 2014 campaign and probably won’t become a star. But his patience at the plate and bat control should allow him to stick around in the majors.

MB – I hear all the hype about his defense, but I think his bat is going to take a long time, if ever, to come around against good ML RHP’s.  I think he’d be a great backup that plays against LHPs, but that could be Chris Stewart too and he just signed for a pittance (i.e. not that valuable).

7. Nick Kingham (RHP, 24)

KC – Out for most of 2016 after Tommy John surgery, but I still think he could be a #3.

MB – Maybe I blow off Tommy John surgery too much, but I think Kingham will be back and will be good.  I watched him throw in Altoona and at worst he’s a Jared Hughes.   At best he’s a solid #3.  I’m thinking Jeff Suppan.

SD – Broken elbow and all, Kingham still has a place in the top 10. I think he could still develop into a middle of the rotation type or a back of the bullpen type.

KH– Kingham probably would have been in the majors last season if Tommy John surgery hadn’t derailed his season. The righty is on the mend and, at 6’6”/230 lbs., has that workhorse frame that could allow him to rack up some 200 ­inning seasons from the bottom half of the Pirates rotation.

6. Harold Ramirez (OF, 21)

KH – Ramirez has a quick swing, strong wrists, and is able to generate lots of contact. His speed should make up for a perceived lack of power, but his thick lower half could reduce that speed advantage as he matures. He probably won’t stick at center, probably doesn’t have the arm for right. Wait. Am I just describing Jose Tabata?

KC – Injury prone, reminds me of Jose Tabata in terms of build. For me, he’s a 4th OF as I don’t think he hits enough to man a corner and not enough range for CF.

SD – Ramirez has done some impressive things playing against older competition.  He had a great summer and was the only bright spot for Columbia in the PanAm games.

MB – Another guy who I’m buying the Keith Law and Baseball Prospectus hype.  They rave about his bat and that’s the most important part of an offensive player.  A Melky Cabrera type could be nice in PNC.

5. Alen Hanson (2B, 23)

MB – Plus glove 2B with 30 steals and 10+ triples.   His splits are much better against RHP which is good with Mercer, Harrison, SRod and Kang now… and Frazier, Gift, Moroff and Newman in a couple years.

KH – The Pirates finally gave up on Hanson becoming a major league shortstop and moved the switch hitter to second base last season. His average hit tool is damaged by below average on­-base skill and power, which may make Hanson more useful to the Pirates as a utility player rather than an everyday second baseman.

SD – Bat still hasn’t broken out in the upper levels after a great year in Low A in 2012. ISO was a bit off this season, but was one of six players who qualified in AAA under the age of 23.

KC – Seems more like a utility infielder for me at this point, but he could still see some time in PGH this year (either out of spring training as bench player or in case of injury).

4. Jameson Taillon (RHP, 24)

MB – The Pirates love makeup and this guy seems to have a lot of it.  Pre-injuries he had a good fastball and a great curve.  If the change is good he could be a solid #2. Or he could be a solid #2 with just the fastball and curve just like Uncle AJ Burnett.

SD – Was major league ready prior to his injury but basically having two years off isn’t going to help his stock any. The layoff likely limits him to the bullpen in Pittsburgh this year.

KH – Due to injuries, it has been two seasons since Taillon has thrown in a meaningful ballgame, but he still has that top of the rotation pedigree that the Pirates dreamed about when they drafted him.  Taillon still needs to make up for lost developmental time in Triple A before he’s added to the major league rotation.

KC – After not pitching competitively for 2 years he has fallen off Top 100 lists, but I still like him as a downgraded #3 now.

3. Austin Meadows (OF, 21)

MB – I like Mark Kotsay as a low comp and Shin-Soo Choo as a high comp.   Per BA he can stick in CF and per my Twitter buddy Eno Sarris he has a “80 body”.   He could be a great asset or trade piece.

KC – I’m disappointed in the lack of power for a player that is probably destined to man a corner at PNC. Great hit tool, hoping he matures into more power.

KH – It’s questionable whether or not Austin Meadows will be able to stick in center field. Fortunately for the Pirates, they have three center fielders in their outfield already. If Meadows’s raw power continues to evolve into on­field pop, he could be the heir apparent to Andrew McCutchen.

SD – I think the Jay Bruce comps have stopped. Meadows has some solid contact skills, but the power needs to develop.

2. Josh Bell (1B, 23)

SD – Maybe going a little crazy here on Bell, but he could develop into one of the better hitters in baseball if power goes from balls in play flying off his bat to balls flying out of the park.

KH – Last year, the switch-­hitting outfielder became a switch­-hitting first baseman. While Bell’s average remained stellar and his strikeout­ to­ walk ratio (1:1) was impeccable, he didn’t generate much power. This could become problematic for him as he prepares to fill Pittsburgh’s perpetual hole at first.

MB – Bell’s floor is now a starting RF who sits against tough LHP.   His ceiling is an everyday middle of the order 1B who can sub in the corners.

KC – Power is tantalizing, but has not shown up in game action yet. Great K/BB numbers and strong hit tool. Defense is extremely rough at 1B.

1. Tyler Glasnow (RHP, 22)

KC – Has all the makings of a low-end #1/high-end #2 with his dominant fastball delivered from his gigantor 6-8″ frame, plus knee buckling curveball. Could see PGH in July.

MB –  I saw Tyson Ross as a comp for him.  That’s OK but his ceiling is so high.  The Pirates and their patient approach will get the most out of him which is going to be special.

KH – For several years, the Pirates have invested heavily in young projectable high school pitchers. Most of them have flamed out, except Glasnow. The righty boasts two plus pitches, a fastball that touches 100 MPH and a devastating curve, and is poised for a mid­season call up to The Show after he works out some kinks in Triple A Indianapolis.

SD – Glasnow is an excellent prospect with a great fastball/curveball combo and some control issues. He strikes a lot of guys out but he also gets hit pretty hard at times, too.

Join us late? Here are are the links to the rest of the rankings!

#11 – 20

#21 – 30

#31 – 40

Follow The Point of Pittsburgh on Twitter @thepointofpgh

Glasnow is on the precipice of the Majors. Will his value equate to what pitchers of his caliber have contributed in the past?
Photo by Kelly Wilkinson/Indy Star

When the first article on your new website spreads like wildfire, it’s both heartening and daunting at the same time.  In December 2014, we launched The Point of Pittsburgh and the first article was How Much Is An MLB Prospect Worth.  Its success made Steve and I realize we were right in that there was a large audience waiting for good analysis from TPOP.  The article has been featured in the Washington Post, virtually every MLB team’s website on SB Nation, various team message boards, and most prominently on Fangraphs across multiple articles.

But with all models, they must constantly be refined with new and revised input data to stay up-to-date.  For this update, we examined every facet of the model to see what needed tweaked.  What follows is the methodology behind the concept of surplus value and what was changed.  You can always click the link above to see the original and how things progressed.

What Is Prospect Surplus Value?

Youth is the currency of choice in Major League Baseball.  Years of control and the ability to pay a player at depressed wages, both at minimum scale and arbitration rates, is the key for a team seeking to get high value from players.  If you have some key players making little money, it can help you address other needs in free agency at inflated prices.  It’s how bottom lines are balanced.

Teams control players for six full seasons, typically with three of them at minimum salary and three at arbitration rates, which are a fraction of a player’s worth on the open market.  There are tricks that all teams employ to squeeze a little bit more than six seasons out of a player, like waiting until a few weeks pass to bring him up and thus not have the player get a full season (like Kris Bryant and the Cubs) or waiting until the Super 2 deadline passes in late June to avoid paying arbitration four times (like the Pirates and other teams with virtually all their top prospects).

So if a team is assessing how much a prospect is worth when discussing him in a trade, they have to calculate what value that player may contribute to the team for his six seasons of control in the future.  Teams are employing some type of financial analysis to do this.  At TPOP, we did ours on a present worth value model where future values over a period of time are shunted forward to present-day in one lump sum.  The player’s potential earnings are then subtracted from the present worth number to obtain surplus value, or the amount of value that a team places on that asset when discussing him in potential trades.

What Is The Source Data?

Since 1990, Baseball America has been ranking the Top 100 prospects across baseball.  I have always viewed Baseball America as being very middle-of-the-road in their analysis, in comparison to other sites that skewed too heavy in potential and tools.  Plus, they’ve been doing it longer than other places, so there’s more of a body of work to draw from.

The initial iteration of this article mined the data from the 1994 to 2005 Top 100 prospect lists and put the players into different tiers for analysis, based on being either a hitter or a pitcher and their rankings.  Since a shade over a year has passed, we included the 2006 Top 100 prospects, too.  The thinking is that a player on the 2006 list probably graduated from the minors no later than 2009, then spent 2010-2015 accruing their six full seasons with their team, thus giving us the proper amount of WAR they generated for their team(s) while under team control.

How Was Player Value Calculated?

We used Fangraphs for the Wins Above Replacement (WAR) generated by a player during their six seasons under team control.  Allowances were made for the partial seasons that teams got by calling players up later in the season.

How Was Player Worth Calculated?

It has been assumed through the analysis of free agent contracts that the cost to purchase 1 WAR on the free agent market is now around $8M.  The initial article used a figure of $6.5M/WAR, so this has been modified to fit the new figures.  So the player’s six (plus) years of team control WAR were added up, multiplied by $8M/WAR, then brought to present value with a discount value of 8%.  I briefly toyed with lowering the discount value (the compound interest from year to year), but ultimately decided against it because of the new Collective Bargaining Agreement on the horizon.  I think with all the money currently in the game, player salaries are going to be escalated through the new CBA, thus increasing the cost per WAR.

How Were Player Values and Costs Distributed Over 6 Years?

Originally, we made the non-quantified observation that approximately 2/3 of a player’s value was achieved in the arbitration years of team control.  Now after re-assessing the data, we have scaled that figure back to 3/5 during arbitration.  Additionally, we crunched the numbers on player contracts that went through arbitration in last week’s article and came up with arbitration values of 25/40/60% for the three arbitration years.  This averages out to 42%, rather than the 60% we previously assumed with the 40/60/80 model.

So Surplus Value Is…

The present worth value calculation minus the amount of potential salary that a team has to expend over the three minimum salary years ($1.6M) plus three arbitration years (3/5 of present value WAR x 42% x $8M per WAR).  The results for the hitters and pitchers, broken down by the various tiers, are shown below:

As with the original article, the best bets for prospects still remain the elite #1-10 hitters and pitchers.  It amazes me with all the volatility around pitchers, due to potential injuries and ineffectiveness, that pitchers #1-10 have the lowest bust rates of all tiers.  You know that you’re at least getting a bullpen-caliber guy (less than 3 WAR) and a pitcher won’t outright bust (Jesse Foppert came oh so close with 0.1 WAR).

There also remains little difference between both hitters #51-75 and #76-100, as well as pitchers #51-75 and #76-100.  Again, moving forward at TPOP, we’ll lump both groups in as #51-100 prospects within their respective hitter/pitcher groups when discussing surplus values.

The hitters #11-25 and #26-50 raised their average WAR totals up slightly due to the influx of the outstanding 2005 1st round draft picks.  Ryan Zimmerman, Alex Gordon, and Troy Tulowitzki all raised up the #11-25 tier (with their placements reflecting their advanced college nature), while Cameron Maybin, Ryan Braun, and Andrew McCutchen bolstered the #26-50 tier.  It’s a little surprising that Braun wasn’t up higher, but there were always concerns about his ultimate defensive position, which may have hampered his ranking.

Here’s a comparison between the 2015 Surplus Values and this article’s 2016 Surplus Values:

But the big takeaway from all this is how the value of prospects of any ilk has increased, due to the rising market costs to acquire talent in free agency and how little these players are paid in relation to free agency prices.  This is why teams are so reticent in recent years to part with high-end talent, even in light of the shockingly high bust rates shown in the last two columns of the table for certain tiers.  If a player hits, it’s a goldmine for the team.

Baseball America unveiled their 2016 Top 100 prospects list a few days ago.  Four Pirates made the list at the follows positions and their corresponding surplus values:

• Tyler Glasnow — #14 ($39.0M)
• Austin Meadows — #22 ($62.0M)
• Josh Bell — #38 ($38.2M)
• Harold Ramirez — #95 ($20.6M)

Even though Glasnow is universally regarded as the #1 prospect in the system, Meadows is actually the more valuable prospect due to the volatility of pitchers in the #11-25 tier and the reliability of production from hitters in the #11-25 tier.

Josh Bell has nearly equal value as Glasnow, with the hitter #26-50 having nearly the same bust rates as Glasnow’s pitcher #11-25 tier, but Bell’s bust rates are double Meadows’s chances to accumulate 3 WAR and quadruple his rate to accumulate zero or fewer WAR.

Not just for Pirates but for all players, it’s important to trendline how a prospect is moving through the course of these lists from year-to-year.  If a player is sliding down, by all means consider moving him, especially any player ranked in the back half of the list.  This year, Taillon dropped off the list from #29 in 2015, but that’s what happens when you don’t competitively pitch for two years.  Reese McGuire also dropped off from #97, which happens when you can’t even hit for a 600 OPS, no matter how great of defensive abilities his supporters trumpet that he has.

In the end, all prospects are lottery tickets.  Our work merely shows that some have better chances of “hitting the lottery” than others.

Follow The Point of Pittsburgh on Twitter @thepointofpgh

Continuing with our trade value rankings of the Pirates organization, today we’ll look at #20 to #14.   You can read the primer and #25-21 to catch up.

Today’s rankings start to include more prospects.  My prospect evaluation has many resources, but normally includes reading Keith Law from ESPN, Bed Badler and JJ Cooper from Baseball America,  John Sickels (who has been doing prospects so long that he owns the URL minorleagueball.com) and finally whichever Fangraphs prospect writer hasn’t been hired by a MLB front office.   Then I scout prospects myself in Altoona as I live close to the ballpark….plus my normal number crunching.

On to the rankings:

20.  Reese McGuire (21, A+/AA)

6.5 years of control     Trade Value Score – 77.4

The Pirates started a notable trend a couple drafts ago where they draft the youngest players in high school/juco/college that are draftable.  The 2013 draft was the bellwether when they drafted Reese McGuire and Austin Meadows in the first round who were barely 18 and Blake Taylor in the second round who was 17 at draft time.

So when talking about McGuire you need to factor in his youth.   He’s consistently been in the top 10 youngest players in whatever league he plays in and has been able to battle through that obstacle.  The one thing that isn’t youthful about his game is his total defensive package.  He calls, blocks and throws like a seasoned major league catcher.

On the offensive side he has two things going for him: he has a good eye and he has good bat-to-ball skills.  He might not ever hit for any power, but his floor offensively might be a left-handed Chris Stewart which isn’t terrible.  In a very small sample size McGuire hit .294/.379/.412 in the Arizona Fall League, which should have been the best competition he has seen.

McGuire will battle Elias Diaz for “catcher of the future” and it will be a fun to have multiple options.

19.  Harold Ramirez (21, AA)

6.5 years of control     Trade Value Score – 77.4

Harold Ramirez has been on scouts’s radars since the Pirates signed him out of Colombia in 2011, but when Keith Law scouted him last July Ramirez was acknowledged by other national prospect nerds.  Ramirez has suffered through a lot of hamstring issues and hearing Law talk about how he maximizes his lower half might have something to do with it.

Ramirez is a luxury item for the outfield talented Pirates.  He’s a gifted defender and has a great hit tool which should get him to the bigs.  He probably doesn’t have the best arm for center field, but the Pirates current ML outfield setup might show that they’d rather have the cannons in the corners.  The comp I see when I look at Ramirez is Melky Cabrera with his strong hit tool, some power and small frame.

Since Ramirez is playing in Altoona this year I’ll try to talk to him at some point.  The two questions I will ask him is 1) do you feel that your small strike zone is an advantage to you? and 2) have you watched Narcos?

18.  Kevin Newman (22, A)

6.5 years of control      Trade Value Score – 77.4

When the Steelers were building a dynasty back in the 90’s they were religious about drafting the best player available.  The Pirates definitely used that philosophy with the Kevin Newman pick in the 2015 draft.

Kevin Newman made his prospect name by being a consistent performer and winning the Cape Cod league batting title twice (which had never been done before).   The Cape Cod league is a nice litmus test for hitters as they are in a minor league like environment and they use wood bats.

Coming into the draft the aforementioned Keith Law drew some criticism when he said that Newman was the 2nd best prospect in the whole draft; a thought that was shared by few.  He thinks Newman could have a quick path to the majors with his glove at shortstop and his all fields approach with the bat.

Newman also continues with the high character type picks that the Pirates seem to emphasize more than other system.  The story that Newman tells Greg Brown about when he was watching the ML draft with his parents shows how he might have those intangibles that will benefit the Pirates going forward.

17.  Jordy Mercer (29, MLB)

Three years of arbitration ($2.075M in arb-1 year of 2016)    Trade Value Score – 80.0

Jordy channeling El Toro – courtesy of @27imokemp

Jordy Mercer is one of my favorite Pirates so I won’t even try to sugarcoat that.  Guys that are great teammates and work hard to overcome lack of physical tools will always have a special place in my heart.

When Jordy was coming through the organization I thought there was zero chance of him being an everyday shortstop, but with tons of reps and a lot of learning (something he credits Clint Barmes with) Mercer has become a plus glove shortstop.

Mercer also crushes LH pitching to the tune of .324/.374/.490 in 320 plate appearances.  This platoon advantage and glove make him a given on any major league team.  Mercer also has some nice pop in his bat which he’s shown a little the last three years.

As far as trade value, Mercer is never going to break the bank in arbitration so he’ll be a value the next three years.  I wouldn’t be surprised if the Pirates signed him to a Chris Stewart-style extension and keep him around for two or three extra years.

I also would love to see him bulk up his 6’3″ frame and man a corner in his last few years.  I could see 20+ home runs in that bat.

16.  Francisco Cervelli (30, MLB)

Final year of arbitration control ($3.5M in arb-3 year of 2016)      Trade Value Score – 80.0

Ask yinzer nation about Cervelli and they’ll just say “he’s awesome” but let’s quantify awesome.  He’s debatedly the best pitch framer in the majors, especially now that Jose Molina can’t find a job.   Cervelli calls a great game too and has a great rapport with pitchers, which is impossible to put a statistic on.

How about Cervelli offensively?  He’s pretty much exactly what you’d want as a ML starter: walks around 10% of the time, K’s less than 20% of the time, BA around .290, 10-15 homers and probably more outside PNC.  He’s really the perfect catcher and at $3.5M he’s a steal.

When Cervelli is suggesting a 3/$39M extension you know the Pirates have severe leverage.   No chance they trade him prior to Opening Day, but if they would he’d return a bundle.

15.  Francisco Liriano (32, MLB)

Two years remaining on contract at 2 yr/$27.33M   Trade Value Score – 80.0

One might think I’m talking out of two sides of my mouth when I’m saying that two years of Francisco Liriano are really valuable and also say that the Pirates should dumpster dive for free agent starting pitchers.  I’ll explain more in an article someday but to summarize, #1 and #2 starters are now the most valuable property in baseball and are distancing themselves from even the shortstops in value.

Since “Frankie” is now a true #2 starter, he’s incredibly valuable at $13.67M a year.   You could argue he might command $25-30M on a one year deal in this crazy market we’re seeing and if I was the Pirates I’d at least think about extending him now while they’ll have a little leverage (4/$60M?) or they can plan on a draft pick after 2017 if all goes well.

On Liriano the ballplayer it’s probably obvious to even the most casual fan how good Liriano’s slider has become.  It’s been written about by every baseball thinktank from MLB.com to Beyond the Boxscore to our friends at Fangraphs … and more.

He’s really talented and really affordable making him a very valuable asset.

14.  Josh Bell (23, AAA)

6.5 years of control   Trade Value Score – 82.8

The richest second round draft pick ever, Josh Bell, has taken a lot longer to reach the show than his college pitcher draft mate Gerrit Cole, but he’s about to come onto the scene this year.  Bell, who has been covered a lot since he was drafted, has become one of the better hitters in the minors and whose bat has carried him to the brink of the majors.

Bell has a great approach at the plate and hits the ball incredibly hard.  I’ve watched Polanco, Marte, Allie, etc. all play at Altoona and it’s no question that Bell has the highest exit velocity of all of them, I just don’t have the Trackman data to prove it.  The problem with Bell currently is that he doesn’t get enough loft on the balls and many of his screamers just go for singles and doubles; hopefully the Pirates coaching staff can fix that.

Bell could also be a real asset to the Pirates if he could come up midseason 2016 and start at 1B full time.  This would give the Pirates 6.5 years of a everyday 1B in the long term and in the short term would make the Pirates bench pretty stout with Jaso and Morse… not to mention pseudo-1B Sean Rodriguez.

You could argue that Bell’s potential and 6.5 years of cheap control would rank him higher on the list, but his questionable defensive position, the pitching premium and the Pirates’ stacked system have him ranking lower than one would guess.

Let’s say that you were invited to a steak dinner and when you sat at your seat you were handed a cheesesteak.  But it was a good cheesesteak… and you were invited to take the cheesesteak into the living room and watch a game while you ate.

Did you have a steak dinner?  Not really.  Did it work out OK?  Sure.

I think the Pirates steak dinner at first base in 2015 was Pedro Alvarez.  In the end it was a lot of Sean “Serpico” Rodriguez. A lot more than I realized as well.  Let’s look at the games, games started, complete games and innings at first base for the Bucs in 2015:

The numbers that stood out to me were:

1. How few games Pedro finished for the 119 he started.  Only Aramis Ramirez finished a fewer percentage of games that he started of the five Pirate first basemen listed.
2. How many games Serpico played at first base.    If you would have asked me how many games Rodriguez played at first base, just on gut feel I would have said about 50-60… not 102. You can also notice how few games Rodriguez started versus his total games played.

When the Pirates do something so bold there normally is a reason. So I dug into the numbers at Fangraphs and I found my answer. I searched the Defensive input into Fangraphs WAR for first basemen for the seasons 2012-2015 and here’s what I found:

Sean Rodriguez is not merely good at playing defense at first base… he’s GREAT.    He’s Billy Hamilton’s speed great.   He’s Andrelton Simmons defense at SS great.  (If I’d care, I’d see if Simmons vs. average SS defense is better or worse than Serpico vs. average 1B defense).

You can see that Serpico is much better than even a reputed good defensive first baseman like Mark Texiera or Mike Napoli (who is a Free Agent the Pirates might like, too).

Let’s look at another chart.   This one is for the same years but it’s for the Baserunning input into Fangraphs WAR of all first basemen:

While Rodriguez is no Paul Goldschmidt, he still has tremendous value on the base paths and can be used a a pinch runner, which he was used several times last season.

Another point of this is that Pedro pretty much knew he was getting pulled after the 5th or 6th inning.  This means he probably didn’t have to study the other teams relievers as much as their starter; likewise for Serpico and the starters.  Maybe this is another reason Pedro had a good offensive season and I hope it doesn’t make Rodriguez’s poor offensive output in 2015 as his ceiling.

So as the dust settles at first base after the non-tender of Pedro, don’t be surprised if the Pirates turn to a familiar face.   Sean Rodriguez’s defense at first base could buffer now with Morse and in the future with the defensively weak Josh Bell.  He could help the Pirates more than the common fan realizes.

Tyson Ross has all the characteristics in a pitcher that the Pirates look for
Photo by Jim Cowsert/USA Today Sports

If you could design the perfect pitcher, based on what we know about the Pirates’ predilections, what would he be?  Probably, it would look like this:

• Tall, preferably at least 6′-3″
• High ground ball rate — Eight starting pitchers have pitched at least 200 innings for the Pirates between 2011 and 2015.  Of those eight, only two had a ground ball rate less than 48% (the typical Major League average): Jeff Karstens and James McDonald
• Above average strikeout rate — The perfect spot on the Venn diagram of pitchers is someone that has a high ground ball rate (usually indicative of ground outs) coupled with a strikeout rate, which leads to less hits and gap shots/home runs.  In recent years, Francisco Liriano has been the epitome of this — a 52% ground ball rate and a 9.58 K/9 rate is the sweet spot.
• Affordable.  Or you could say cheap.

With the Pirates unable to re-sign J.A. Happ, there’s a gaping hole at the #3 spot in the rotation behind Cole and Liriano.  That gap is also ahead of the uninspiring back two of Charlie Morton and Jeff Locke.  There are so many pitchers out on the free agent market that I believe mid to late January will lend itself to the Pirates being able to get someone on a good deal for 1 or 2 years.  However, there’s a pitcher potentially out there that would a perfect pickup for the Pirates, based on the criteria listed above.

Tyson Ross of the Padres will be age-29 in 2016.  The 6′-5″ Ross has two more arbitration years of team control.  Last year, his ground ball rate was a staggering 61.5% with a strikeout rate of 9.73 K/9 to match.  Ross is primarily a fastball-slider pitcher, with his 86 mph slider as his out pitch that grades out very well (+1.69 runs/100 pitches in 2015).

Ross is projected to earn $10M through arbitration for 2016, which is exactly what I allotted for a pitcher this offseason in our 2016 Pirate Roster and Payroll article.  The question, as always, is how much is Ross worth and what will be required to obtain him in a trade?

Ross’s WAR the last three years is 1.9, 3.2, 4.4 from 2013-15.  Using a 3-2-1 weighting, his average of the last three years is 3.6 WAR.  Assuming $6.5M/WAR and two years of control, that is $46.8M of production.  Using his $10M this year and then $15M presumed salary in 2017, that’s $25M of potential salary, giving a surplus value of $21.8M.  Using our Prospect Value Article, that is a hitter ranked #26-50 in Baseball America’s Top 100 or a pitcher ranked #11-25.  Naturally, there are other permutations you could get to accrue a value of $21.8M, but let’s use those.

For the Pirates, those equivalents are roughly Tyler Glasnow for the pitcher or Austin Meadows, maybe Josh Bell for the hitters.  For me, Glasnow is the one I would want to part with the least, but he is obviously the most appealing to other teams.  Many of you would not trade six years of Glasnow for two years of anyone.  I’m a Flags Fly Forever guy, meaning that if the Pirates were to win a World Series in either 2016 or 2017 with Ross, I could care less what was given up for that title.

There’s a few problems, though.  First is that I’m not sure if the Padres are rebuilding, reloading, or just plain going for it.  After last year’s ill-fated tradeapalooza spending spree resulted in a 74-88 season, the Padres have little potential payroll flexibility and a farm system that is lacking.  Which leads into the second issue.  The Padres recently traded Craig Kimbrel (of the aforementioned tradeapalooza) to the Red Sox for two high-end prospects, a third interesting one, and some other dude.  The hitters are probably more in the #51-100 range (Manuel Margot and Javier Guerrera), but the Pirates may have to kick in some other pieces for Ross, if the Kimbrel trade is a precedent.

Could the Pirates scale back the higher prospects and go with a Jameson Taillon-Harold Ramirez package?  It’s possible, but I can’t imagine that being enough.  The Padres aren’t just going to give Ross away, especially because if Ross is gone without a ready-made replacement, their rotation will just have James Shields – Andrew Cashner – Odrisamer Despaigne and a bunch of young guys fighting for spots.  I suppose it’s wishful thinking to think the Padres would take Charlie Morton back in the deal to replicate the ground ball tendencies of Ross, while giving them a bridge arm for 2016.

Tyson Ross and the Pittsburgh Pirates seem like a match made in heaven.  It would be the kind of win-now move that would help quell the masses already searching for pitchforks and torches, afraid that the Pirates are going cheap this offseason.  Here’s hoping that Ross will be wearing out the infield grass at PNC Park with his plethora of ground balls in 2016.