You pretty much have to look for Taillon’s face on the side of a milk carton these past two years.
Today we round out TPOP’s top 40 rankings. Special thanks once again to all of our participants. I think we provoked some thoughts while we also got to highlight how much is still in the system.
Kevin Creagh (KC) – TPOP
Michael Bradley (MB) – TPOP
Kurt Hackimer (KH) – winitforus.com and soon-to-be TPOP writer
Steve DiMiceli (SD) – TPOP
10. Ke’Bryan Hayes (3B, 19)
KH – Hayes, Pittsburgh’s other first round pick, is also a good bet to stick around on the left side of the infield because of his strong arm and keen baseball instincts. The 19 year old son of former Pirate Charlie Hayes is more muscular than most teenage prospects and has a swing that has already warranted Top 100 Prospects consideration from several publications.
KC – Good lineage, had strong debut in 2015, albeit in GCL. Anxious to see his full-season debut this year.
MB – Hayes is one of the reasons that I’m hoping Melancon and Cervelli get us some comp picks. Hayes had a great first season and looks to have some serious upside. I’m assuming he’ll be in Charleston this summer and I might have to take a trip down to watch him.
SD – I already bought in on Carloz Munoz’s rookie ball performance. Hayes’s sandwich pedigree should have him higher for me, but I’m in wait and see mode.
9. Kevin Newman (SS, 22)
KH – An already polished product of the historic Cape Cod League, Newman was considered as a safe selection for the Pirates at the 19 spot in the draft. He has line drive power, can hit for average, and has a good chance to stick at shortstop. The last part is critical because the Pirates are thin at short, which should allow Newman to rapidly climb the organizational ranks.
SD – Not the pro debut you’d like to see, but he could provide an average or better hit tool and stick at short. That’s not a bad combination.
MB – I’m totally swayed by Keith Law’s conviction to his top prospect status. Law swears he’s a sure fire ML shortstop with an all fields approach with the bat.
KC – Low upside college SS was 2015 1st round pick. Bat appears to have no power in it.
8. Elias Diaz (C, 25)
SD – At the very least, Diaz should know where to sit in the dug out to get the best view of the game following his phantom call up in September. Looks like a solid backup at worst.
KC – Remains in the mix for catching work in the future for Pirates, but his bat stagnated last year in AAA. Seems more like a 50 game player than a 110 game player.
KH – Defensively, Diaz is the whole package. He’s got a strong arm, a sturdy glove, and the ability to properly manage a pitching staff. Offensively, he didn’t progress as well in 2015 as he did in his breakout 2014 campaign and probably won’t become a star. But his patience at the plate and bat control should allow him to stick around in the majors.
MB – I hear all the hype about his defense, but I think his bat is going to take a long time, if ever, to come around against good ML RHP’s. I think he’d be a great backup that plays against LHPs, but that could be Chris Stewart too and he just signed for a pittance (i.e. not that valuable).
7. Nick Kingham (RHP, 24)
KC – Out for most of 2016 after Tommy John surgery, but I still think he could be a #3.
MB – Maybe I blow off Tommy John surgery too much, but I think Kingham will be back and will be good. I watched him throw in Altoona and at worst he’s a Jared Hughes. At best he’s a solid #3. I’m thinking Jeff Suppan.
SD – Broken elbow and all, Kingham still has a place in the top 10. I think he could still develop into a middle of the rotation type or a back of the bullpen type.
KH– Kingham probably would have been in the majors last season if Tommy John surgery hadn’t derailed his season. The righty is on the mend and, at 6’6”/230 lbs., has that workhorse frame that could allow him to rack up some 200 inning seasons from the bottom half of the Pirates rotation.
6. Harold Ramirez (OF, 21)
KH – Ramirez has a quick swing, strong wrists, and is able to generate lots of contact. His speed should make up for a perceived lack of power, but his thick lower half could reduce that speed advantage as he matures. He probably won’t stick at center, probably doesn’t have the arm for right. Wait. Am I just describing Jose Tabata?
KC – Injury prone, reminds me of Jose Tabata in terms of build. For me, he’s a 4th OF as I don’t think he hits enough to man a corner and not enough range for CF.
SD – Ramirez has done some impressive things playing against older competition. He had a great summer and was the only bright spot for Columbia in the PanAm games.
MB – Another guy who I’m buying the Keith Law and Baseball Prospectus hype. They rave about his bat and that’s the most important part of an offensive player. A Melky Cabrera type could be nice in PNC.
5. Alen Hanson (2B, 23)
MB – Plus glove 2B with 30 steals and 10+ triples. His splits are much better against RHP which is good with Mercer, Harrison, SRod and Kang now… and Frazier, Gift, Moroff and Newman in a couple years.
KH – The Pirates finally gave up on Hanson becoming a major league shortstop and moved the switch hitter to second base last season. His average hit tool is damaged by below average on-base skill and power, which may make Hanson more useful to the Pirates as a utility player rather than an everyday second baseman.
SD – Bat still hasn’t broken out in the upper levels after a great year in Low A in 2012. ISO was a bit off this season, but was one of six players who qualified in AAA under the age of 23.
KC – Seems more like a utility infielder for me at this point, but he could still see some time in PGH this year (either out of spring training as bench player or in case of injury).
4. Jameson Taillon (RHP, 24)
MB – The Pirates love makeup and this guy seems to have a lot of it. Pre-injuries he had a good fastball and a great curve. If the change is good he could be a solid #2. Or he could be a solid #2 with just the fastball and curve just like Uncle AJ Burnett.
SD – Was major league ready prior to his injury but basically having two years off isn’t going to help his stock any. The layoff likely limits him to the bullpen in Pittsburgh this year.
KH – Due to injuries, it has been two seasons since Taillon has thrown in a meaningful ballgame, but he still has that top of the rotation pedigree that the Pirates dreamed about when they drafted him. Taillon still needs to make up for lost developmental time in Triple A before he’s added to the major league rotation.
KC – After not pitching competitively for 2 years he has fallen off Top 100 lists, but I still like him as a downgraded #3 now.
3. Austin Meadows (OF, 21)
MB – I like Mark Kotsay as a low comp and Shin-Soo Choo as a high comp. Per BA he can stick in CF and per my Twitter buddy Eno Sarris he has a “80 body”. He could be a great asset or trade piece.
KC – I’m disappointed in the lack of power for a player that is probably destined to man a corner at PNC. Great hit tool, hoping he matures into more power.
KH – It’s questionable whether or not Austin Meadows will be able to stick in center field. Fortunately for the Pirates, they have three center fielders in their outfield already. If Meadows’s raw power continues to evolve into onfield pop, he could be the heir apparent to Andrew McCutchen.
SD – I think the Jay Bruce comps have stopped. Meadows has some solid contact skills, but the power needs to develop.
2. Josh Bell (1B, 23)
SD – Maybe going a little crazy here on Bell, but he could develop into one of the better hitters in baseball if power goes from balls in play flying off his bat to balls flying out of the park.
KH – Last year, the switch-hitting outfielder became a switch-hitting first baseman. While Bell’s average remained stellar and his strikeout to walk ratio (1:1) was impeccable, he didn’t generate much power. This could become problematic for him as he prepares to fill Pittsburgh’s perpetual hole at first.
MB – Bell’s floor is now a starting RF who sits against tough LHP. His ceiling is an everyday middle of the order 1B who can sub in the corners.
KC – Power is tantalizing, but has not shown up in game action yet. Great K/BB numbers and strong hit tool. Defense is extremely rough at 1B.
1. Tyler Glasnow (RHP, 22)
KC – Has all the makings of a low-end #1/high-end #2 with his dominant fastball delivered from his gigantor 6-8″ frame, plus knee buckling curveball. Could see PGH in July.
MB – I saw Tyson Ross as a comp for him. That’s OK but his ceiling is so high. The Pirates and their patient approach will get the most out of him which is going to be special.
KH – For several years, the Pirates have invested heavily in young projectable high school pitchers. Most of them have flamed out, except Glasnow. The righty boasts two plus pitches, a fastball that touches 100 MPH and a devastating curve, and is poised for a midseason call up to The Show after he works out some kinks in Triple A Indianapolis.
SD – Glasnow is an excellent prospect with a great fastball/curveball combo and some control issues. He strikes a lot of guys out but he also gets hit pretty hard at times, too.
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Continuing with our trade value rankings of the Pirates organization, today we’ll look at #13 to #8. You can read the primer and #25-21 and numbers #20-14 to catch up.
In today’s rankings you’ll start to question whether or not I’ve been drinking too much, but let me defend with some facts.
This offseason 30 year old David Price signed a deal that pays him 7 years at $31M a year AND has an player opt-out after three years so he can get back out in the market.
Also this offseason Zack Grienke used his opt out clause to get out of his contract with the Dodgers and sign a contract with the DBacks. The contract will pay him $34M a year for the six seasons lasting from his 32 year old season through his 37 year old season.
J.A. Happ -3/$36M… Cueto… Samarzdzija ..etc.etc etc.
Then you get a player like Alex Gordon who is a rock solid, strong offensive and defensive player and he “only” gets 4/$72.
What I’m trying to say is the premium on good starting pitching has never been higher and the prospects ranked higher (or lower) than you’d guess has a lot to do with this effect.
On to the rankings:
13. Yeudy Garcia (23, A+/AA)
6.5 years of control Trade Value Score – 82.8
Who-y is Yeudy? That’s what I bet a bunch of you are saying, and I said the same thing last spring when I started hearing about this stud pitcher throwing in the South Atlantic League.
Yeudy Garcia was a “late sign” out of the Dominican Republic back in the 2013 at the old age of 20. Normally prospects are signed before they finish puberty and this guy could almost drink by the time Rene Gayo inked him. He had a good season in the Dominican Summer League in 2014 but nothing that would make you think he’d come stateside and dominate… but that’s what he did.
In 2015 Garcia dominated the South Atlantic League in 124 innings and went from an interesting name to an interesting prospect. Baseball America rated Garcia as the 9th best SAL prospect in a year where the league was stacked with prospects.
Baseball America’s JJ Cooper (who’s also a rabid Steeler fan) wrote Garcia’s prospect writeup and mentioned Garcia’s lively 93-96 mph fastball, work ethic/demeanor and plus but inconsistent slider. In an organization that has the most fastball emphasis around this sounds like some great qualities.
Garcia turned 23 in October so the Pirates might consider an abbreviated stop in Bradenton at High A ball and getting him to Altoona by mid-season. If the Pirates consider him a bullpen piece he could be in the ML bullpen by next year, but I think they will exhaust him as a starter first and mid-2017 or 2018 would make more sense.
12. Elias Diaz (25, AAA)
6.5 years of control Trade Value Score – 82.8
I’d be surprised if you haven’t heard a lot about Elias Diaz by now. Diaz has been heralded defensively his whole way through the minors, but he didn’t break out offensively until 2014 when he was in Altoona.
Diaz is one of a couple Pirates prospects that came from Venezuela. He was signed at 17 and spent his first summer in the Venezuelan summer league. After coming stateside, he struggled offensively for his first three seasons even repeating Low A in West Virginia. The Pirates know to be patient with catchers, especially ones with Diaz’s skill. He turned the ship around in High A in 2013 and was named the best defensive catcher in the Eastern League by Baseball America in 2014 while hitting .328/.378/.445.
Baseball America bestowed an even bigger award naming him the recipient of the Captain’s Catcher award for the best defensive catcher in the minors.
Another thing worth noting with Diaz is the fact that he crushes LHP. Diaz had a strong .271/.317/.500 line in 105 PA’s against LHP in ’15 buffering his .268/.332/.329 in 260 PA’s against RHP. If Diaz comes up in 2016 it will probably be due to injury, making him a nice platoon candidate against LHP’s with no need to worry about his defense.
11. Chad Kuhl (23, AAA)
6.5 years of control Trade Value Score – 82.8 
Chad Kuhl might be another one where you say “who?” especially if you’re used to getting all the prospect news from the national guys.
I noticed Kuhl in 2013 when the Pirates skipped him over low A ball and sent him right from short season to Bradenton. Normally this is a sign of a prospect they think is on the fast track (Justin Wilson, Adrian Sampson) and for a pitcher it probably means he has good fastball command… which the numbers back up.
Kuhl’s fastball bumped up a step this year at AA (touching 97 while sitting at 94) and he was able to control it better than most. I think he could enter into a big league bullpen tomorrow and be a nice asset but the Bucs have other ideas.
Kuhl moved up the ladder so fast that he’s not even on the 40 man roster yet, meaning he can hang out in AAA, work on his stuff and not burn any options, i.e. like having a 41 man roster. The thing is his stuff is ready right now… but the roster flexibility is more important which makes his trade value even higher.
10. Alen Hanson (23, AAA/MLB)
6.5 years of control Trade Value Score – 82.8
When I look at a player and try to assess whether they can play in the majors I start with defense. Alen Hanson is a borderline Major League shortstop defensively, meaning he’s probably an above average third and second baseman and could even possibly play center field. So “check” — Hanson is fine there.
Then you assess whether you think he could hit a level appropriate for his position. If Hanson was still a shortstop this bar could be lower but let’s look at him as a 2nd baseman.
If you look at full season batting average and home runs Hanson doesn’t look too studly, but if you start breaking out splits Hanson begins to shine. Hanson hits better LH against RH pitching with a .270/.332/.405 line in 330 plate appearances… not to dismiss his 35 SBs.
So in an infield with the RH Kang at 3B, the RH Mercer at short and the RH Harrison at 2B, with the RH Sean Rodriguez as the primary backup, wouldn’t it be nice to have a LH middle infielder that could come up and give them a break against some RHP’s? Hanson is a nice find and his time has come.
9. Austin Meadows (21, AA)
6.5 years of control Trade Value Score – 85.7
We’ve been talking about Meadows for a few years now and he still can’t legally drink a beer… if they even card him in his home state of Georgia.
Meadows was the gift given to us when Mark Appel didn’t sign and looks like a nice find with the ninth spot in the 2013 draft. He made his way all the way to AA by last September. I didn’t get to scout him in person yet, but that will be on the agenda for 2016.
I’ve tweeted with the aforementioned JJ Cooper about Meadows and he says the thoughts of Meadows needing to leave center field for a corner are inaccurate as Meadows plays a fine center. I also tweeted with Eno Sarris about Meadows during the Arizona Fall League and Sarris said he has an “80 body” which we’ve heard before.
I’ll be anxious to see if his physique changes when he shows up to Altoona as I’ve watched Josh Bell and Willy Garcia throw some serious bulk on between A+ and AA. If Meadows looks similar I’ll guess CF is still the plan and if he adds to that 6’3″ frame I’ll assume a corner is more likely.
8. Nick Kingham (24, AAA)
6.5 years of control Trade Value Score – 88.9
Kingham would be the tallest member of the Blue Man Group
So far the Pirates 2010 draft class has had 16 starts made in the majors and zero from the two prize arms of Nick Kingham and Jameson Taillon. Brandon Cumpton has 15 starts and Casey Sadler has one. The ironic thing is that all four of the pitchers mentioned have now had Tommy John surgery.
Kingham was signed for $485,000 as an overslot sign with all the Bucs could cobble together after paying large bonuses to Taillon and Stetson Allie.
Kingham, which autocorrects to Kingdom more than I’d like, did the elite high school pitcher track by only spending one year in short season ball and moving directly to West Virginia in 2012. He started breaking out as a prospect then by having great numbers as a 20 year old in 127 innings. Kingham continued his progression and I caught one of his starts in Altoona in 2014. You could tell he was focusing on his changeup as he struggled through the first two innings, but then they gave him his curve back in the third inning and he scuffled no more.
Kingham has the height and frame to be an easy 200 inning horse, with his upside being dependent on that changeup. A #2 starter is not out of the question.
Kingham isn’t supposed to return to full workload until midseason so I’d expect him to be initially at AAA. He’d be an option to come up after the All Star game, but there might not be enough room. I know that Huntington takes the roster a day at a time but a promotion for Kingham after the Super Two deadline in 2017 might be a good bet now.
***Updated Venn Below
Stephen Tarpley was one of two pitchers obtained for Travis Snider last offseason. He’s now the top LH pitcher in the system.
Photo by Tom Hindman/Daily Mail
In case you haven’t noticed so far in this series, where I’ve already broken down the Pirates’ infield and outfield prospects, I’m trying to highlight some players that don’t get as much love as they should. That theme will become even more apparent. The deepest position in the system, as it has been for a few years, is right-handed pitching. I could list ten righties with a solid shot to pitch in the majors and then list ten more who still cling to some hope. However, I’d prefer to spread the attention around and focus on top pitchers, both right and left-handed. Then, I’ll also look at three who I think profile as solid relievers.
Right Handed Pitching
1. Tyler Glasnow (109.1 IP, 77 H, 43 BB, 136 K, 2.39 ERA, 3.54 BB/9, 11.20 K/9) at AA/AAA
2. Jameson Taillon (did not play in 2015)
Tyler Glasnow is a no-brainer pick for top pitcher at this point, even if I think Jameson Taillon was a better, more effective pitcher when I compare my first hand observations of both at the AA level. Problem is, Taillon has had Tommy John surgery which will likely limit his longevity. On top of that he didn’t get back on the horse in 2015 thanks to a hernia surgery. I don’t know about you, but I think missing almost two full years of development is a bad thing for a pitcher.
Glasnow has all the tools to be a top end major league pitcher. He has a solid fastball that he can ramp up to the upper 90’s and a curveball that could play as an out pitch now in the majors. However, he still is prone to breakdowns in control and he seemed to get hit harder than you might expect at the AA level given his stuff package.
Taillon has a better fastball in terms of command and prior to his injuries was a tick faster on the radar gun. He is more of the prototypical Neal Huntington righty in that he really drives the ball down in the zone generating a ton of ground balls. The good news for Pirates fans is how he pitches could allow him him to stay effective, even if the velocity doesn’t bounce back. When I saw him prior to injury, he looked like an A.J. Burnett-type and there are a wide range of outcomes below that where he could still become an effective starter. The question will be how long can he keep it up and, honestly, that separates him from the top spot.
3. Mitch Keller (19.2 IP, 25 H, 16 BB, 25 K, 5.49 ERA, 7.32 BB/9, 11.44 K/9) at Advanced Rookie
Yes, I have looked at Keller’s all-around numbers this season in the Appy. I even looked at that butt-ugly walk rate. His K-rate, however, is wildly intriguing as is his ability to generate them while inducing ground balls. In the end, he had one bad outing messing with an extremely small sample size. I wouldn’t be surprised if Keller eventually ends up on the list of relievers, but for now he has huge breakout potential in 2016.
4. Yeudy Garcia (124.1 IP, 92 H, 41 BB, 112 K, 2.10 ERA, 2.97 BB/9, 8.11 K/9) at Low A
Garcia was one of the quietest breakout pitchers in the Pirates’ system in recent memory. While he was a little old for the SAL, he combined a nice K:BB rate with solid Ground Out to Fly Out ratio (GO:FO). He conceded just four homeruns in 120 innings with solid splits to lefties and righties. While he’ll need a few years just to get his inning totals up, he appears to have the tools to stick in the rotation.
5. Chad Kuhl (152.2 IP, 133 H, 41 BB, 101 K, 2.48 ERA, 2.42 BB/9, 5.95 K/9) at AA
Kuhl feels like a better version of Brandon Cumpton. With mid-90’s velocity to his sinker and the ability to eat innings, Kuhl could develop into a solid back of the rotation starter or a weak middle of the rotation guy. He doesn’t generate big strike out numbers, but he makes up for it with a low walk rate and loads of ground balls.
Left Handed Pitching
1. Stephen Tarpley (116 IP, 108 H, 25 BB, 105 K, 2.48 ERA, 1.94 BB/9, 8.15 K/9) at Low A
Tarpley is a bit like Yuedy Garcia in the sense that he’s old for level, but his package of stuff and K:BB make him an excellent candidate to progress as a starter and even get better. He’s also beginning to look more and more like the prototypical Pirates’ pitching prospect with a consistently strong GO:FO ratio in the minors. He’ll be one to watch in 2016, as I think he could move quickly if he has a strong start in the FSL.
2. Steven Brault (155.2 IP, 134 H, 40 BB, 125 K, 2.43 ERA, 2.31 BB/9, 7.23 K/9) at High A/AA
In many ways, I like Brault over Tarpley. He’s showing similar numbers at a higher level in the system and looks like a safe bet to reach the majors in 2016 or 2017. He also spells his name properly. However, consensus seems to put Tarpley solidly ahead of him. While that doesn’t always factor in for me, it does in this case. Regardless, the Pirates appear to be well ahead on the Travis Snider deal as both pitchers they received appreciated in value this year.
3. Brandon Waddell (20.1 IP, 24 H, 7 BB, 18 K, 5.75 ERA, 3.10 BB/9, 7.97 K/9) at Short Season
Jumping down to Waddell shows the lack of left handed depth that remains in the system, even if they scored big on the Snider deal. Truthfully, Waddell belongs with the bullpen prospects. After watching Waddell pitch the final game of the College World Series, he has his warts, but he reminds me a lot of Tony Watson. With time, I think he could develop into an exceptional reliever who has a chance to remain in the rotation.
Relief Pitchers
1. Nick Kingham (31.1 IP, 34 H, 7 BB, 32 K, 4.31 ERA, 2.01 BB/9, 9.19 K/9) at AAA
How do you solve the Tommy John longevity dilemma? First, you get the player to the majors as quickly as you can. Second, you manage their innings in the bullpen. Moving Kingham to relief would kill two birds with one stone. Many pitchers have extended their post-TJ life span in the pen and Nick Kingham could be another example, when he returns late in 2016. Pitching in relief would severely limit his upside and value over a single season, but it could be a way to get better results over his entire career. Kingham has a solid two pitch mix of fastball and curve that could play extremely well late in games.
2. Montana DuRapau (72 IP, 28 H, 9 BB, 69 K, 1.38 ERA, 1.13 BB/9, 8.63 K/9) at High A/AA/AAA
This guy came out of nowhere and moved three levels in one year in the Pirates’ system. Frankly, he might have the type of magical power that the St. Louis Cardinals rarely seem to miss on. What he’s done this year cannot be explained statistically. His BABIP against is extremely depressed, especially when you consider that he hasn’t lived by the groundball since leaving the SAL. He seems to be a guy who limits the damage. He has allowed more than one run, earned or unearned, only once in his 44 appearances. DuRapau walked two batters in an appearance once, his first appearance in A+. He’s hit three batters. While he might have luck going for him, he also doesn’t seem to hurt his own cause.
3. Luis Heredia (86 IP, 105 H, 44 BB, 54 K, 5.44 ERA, 4.60 BB/9, 5.65 K/9) at High A
I want to make a quick shout out to three other players here before I talk about Heredia — Clay Holmes, Scooter Hightower and Dovydas Neverauskas. Holmes would make the list, for his effective though injury-shortened 2015 campaign. Hightower’s frame and early domination of the Appy League make him a feel-good pick. Neverauskas feels like he’s beginning to flash some of his raw potential after grinding away in the lower levels the last three years. All three would be worthy candidates.
My colleague, Kevin Creagh, would tell you to give up the ghost on Heredia and I agree with him to an extent. Heredia isn’t likely to start in the majors. That’s clear. While he’s still extremely young, he just hasn’t shown the control or the ability to consistently eat innings as a starter. It’s a matter of time until he’s converted full time to the pen. This could allow him to finally max out his velocity and take some of the pressure off him to keep his weight down. It may be time to move on, but given the amount of money the Pirates invested and that he can barely drink legally in the States, they should try this option first. 2016 will likely be a crucial year for him.
***
There were a lot of good names left off these lists and many more with some potential, even if the Pirates have gotten unlucky with injury the last two years. Quantity is as important as quality with pitching and the Pirates are still fortunate to have both.
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The loss of Taillon in 2015 affected the Major team in terms of depth and trading power.
Photo by Bill Gentry/MiLB.com
If you currently spend $2.99 a month to hear about how great a 21st round pick can be in five years, this article may upset you. I’m not going to sugarcoat how poor this year has been for the Pirates’ minor league system. Coming into the year, Baseball America ranked their farm 7th overall; I personally put them at 4th. The reasons for the downfall are myriad.
INJURIES
This is as good a place to start as any. Injuries started early for the Pirates, as Brandon Cumpton succumbed to Tommy John surgery in March. Cumpton was nothing special, probably a #4 starter as a ceiling, but he was the start of the injury parade. In early May, Nick Kingham fell victim to Tommy John. Those two were legitimate options to be called up as depth options for Pittsburgh in 2015. Promising 2014 draftee C/OF Kevin Krause went under the knife himself for elbow issues.
The kicker, however, is the sad tale of Jameson Taillon. After undergoing Tommy John in April 2014, it was thought that Taillon would be fit enough to open the 2015 season in AAA Indianapolis, scrape the rust off, then come up in late June after the Super 2 deadline had passed. Well, Taillon didn’t even make it to a team until mid-June, itself a sign that his TJ recovery was not going well, and then was diagnosed with an inguinal hernia that will keep him out the remainder of the 2015 season before he even pitched.
INEFFECTIVENESS
Tony Sanchez has apparently demonstrated to the Pirates that he’s unable to defensively be a starter in the Majors. Fellow catcher Elias Diaz has put up a 700 OPS in Triple A this year. Luis Heredia continues to slide off the radar of being a prospect (47 IP, 5.89 ERA, 18 BB, 22 K).
It’s difficult to say that Josh Bell is disappointing (.312 AVG, 811 OPS), but his lack of power (4 HR, .119 Isolated Slugging Percentage, .140 is minimum you really want) is odd. It’s hard to see him being a valid Major League starting 1B with that lack of power. When 5′-10″ Alen Hanson is out-homering you, that’s not a good sign.
Fellow 2013 1st round draft picks, Reese McGuire and Austin Meadows, have both been disappointing for different reasons. McGuire has an empty bat that portends no power (.270 AVG, 9 extra base hits in 259 AB’s, 622 OPS), while Meadows (.300 AVG, 759 OPS) has been underwhelming with little power (.094 ISO) of his own.
2014’s draft class has been a no-show this year. SS Cole Tucker has slap-hit his way to an empty .290 batting average but with a 682 OPS. Sure, he has 21 shiny stolen bases, but there’s no power there. And if he grows into some power, he’ll probably outgrow the shortstop position and his bat won’t be enough at another position. The trio of high school pitchers — Mitch Keller, Trey Supak, and Gage Hinsz — have combined for a whopping total of 20 innings in 2015, with Keller not even pitching yet this year. All three are at short-season Bristol, which is disappointing in its own right, as previous high-end high school pitchers were challenged at the more advanced short-season New York-Penn League (the new West Virginia affiliate). This year has been a complete lost year for all three of them.
INSUFFICIENT DRAFT CLASSES
The 2008 draft has been Neal Huntington’s most successful draft class to date. The ascendancy of the Pirates to perennial playoff contender has been augmented by Pedro Alvarez (1st round), Jordy Mercer (3th round), and Justin Wilson (5th round), who was flipped this past offseason in a 1-for-1 deal for Francisco Cervelli. Getting two starters and one bullpen guy out of a single draft is a success; typically, if you can get 1 starter and 1 bench/bullpen guy that’s good.
Since then, the drafts have not directly produced much talent. Yes, it takes at least 4-5 years to properly assess a class, but it’s not too early to make projections on some of them:
- 2009 — Terrible. No direct major contributions. Tony Sanchez (1st) doesn’t have a future here because of his defense. Pirates have used picks in trades like Vic Black (supp 1st), Brooks Pounders (2nd), Colton Cain (8th), Brock Holt (9th), Aaron Baker (11th).
- 2010 — Up in the air. Most production from a healthy pick is from 25th rounder Casey Sadler, which is both positive and sad. Jameson Taillon (1st), Nick Kingham (4th), and Brandon Cumpton (9th) can sway this pendulum greatly if they return healthy in 2016. This was the draft where the Pirates gambled on signing some premium high school pitchers and missed — Jason Hursh (6th), Austin Kubitza (7th), Dace Kime (8th), and Zack Weiss (10th) all didn’t sign.
- 2011 — Success. Thanks to Gerrit Cole (1st) becoming an ace, even if Pirates don’t get anything else out of this draft, I’m happy — setting aside my 1 starter, 1 bench/bullpen theory. Tyler Glasnow (5th) seems on the verge of joining Cole as a front-line starter. Josh Bell (2nd) is overrated, in my opinion, but could contribute. Jason Creasy (8th) and Clay Holmes (9th) could also be contributors in a couple of years.
- 2012 — Could get interesting. Mark Appel (1st) left a gaping hole when he didn’t sign, but the Pirates are getting some potential out of down draft picks like Adrian Sampson (5th) and Max Moroff (16th). Overall, I don’t think draft this will produce enough.
- 2013 — Odd draft. Austin Meadows (1st) has hit, but not much power. Reese McGuire (1st, for Mark Appel not signing) has the makings of a bust. Blake Taylor (2nd), Buddy Borden (7th), and Shane Carle (10th) have already been used in trades. Adam Frazier (6th) could be a bench guy and Chad Kuhl (9th) could be a middle reliever.
- 2014–2015 — Way too early to judge, but not looking good. This is the worst part — the Pirates have had back-to-back drafts with little to no upside picks. The 2015 draft resembles a mid-era Dave Littlefield draft in terms of lack of upside and appears to be shaping up as a wasted effort (yes…I’m calling it after a whopping one month, it’s that bad). Getting little out of consecutive drafts would be a terrible outcome for a team that needs to rely on the farm system for sustainability.
HOW THIS AFFECTS JULY TRADES
Unlike last year when the Pirates were riding high on industry perceptions of certain players, this year the Pirates do not have any high-end prospect performing at peak level, as even Tyler Glasnow was injured for a month this year. As a result, they can’t sell the allure and upside like in years past. Every one of their top 6 or 7 “blue chip” guys is either injured, coming off an injury, or just plain have had a down year.
So when Neal Huntington enters trade discussions, he’ll have to work extra hard to sell opposing GM’s on taking these damaged goods. Or, even worse, he risks getting sandbagged by an opposing GM who is feigning disinterest in the Pirates’ prospects, all the while trying to squeeze an extra player into the potential deal to make up for the supposed drop in prospect value.
It’s time to face the facts that the Pirates’ farm system has peaked. Setting aside Tyler Glasnow, all 6′-8″ of him, there are no more high-impact prospects like McCutchen, Marte, Cole, and Polanco (he’ll get there). There are some complementary pieces like Hanson, Bell, Kingham, and Meadows, but I don’t foresee any of them being frontliners. Taillon, for me, is downgraded to a mid-rotation arm with the lost season of 2015 and one TJ surgery under his belt already. He’ll be 24 next season and in need of AAA time to make up for 2015 — his clock is ticking.
The Pirates can make a play for any player they want on the market. They could get Cueto, Hamels, Chapman, or whatever high value target comes on line. But they may have to overpay just a touch more in 2015’s midseason than they would have in the offseason leading up to it.
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Taillon in extended spring training via @BiertempfelTrib
If the part of the internet dedicated to super nerdy, data driven baseball articles were a tangible place and you were to throw a rock in it, there is a decent chance that you’d peg an article that breaks down how pitchers recover from Tommy John surgery. While it seems like many of the authors start from a place of optimism hoping to prove how much advances in medicine and lots of practice for Dr. James Andrews has improve prognoses, not many end there.
This should be depressing as hell for Pirates fans who, after seeing the organization evade the procedure for a number of years thanks in part to strict pitch counts and fastball heavy game calling, have watched a number of top prospects and veterans have their ulnar ligament reconstructed. Charlie Morton went under the knife in 2012 while sixth man Brandon Cumpton had his in March. In the big bonus / expensive elbow category, the Pirates have seen Clay Holmes, one time top prospect Jameson Taillon and most recently Nick Kingham all require the procedure. For those keeping score at home, that’s $8,185,000 in signing bonuses on the shelf with their paths to the majors halted. Taillon has begun a full throwing program and has made a few appearances in extended spring training with his velocity more or less returning to pre – surgery levels according to reports. Holmes, whose elbow issues arose a month before Taillon’s, seems to be going a little more slowly.
If you need a pick me up, research does indicate that the vast majority of pitchers who have Tommy John surgery return and get much of their functionality back. According to a study by The American Journal of Sports Medicine, less than 3% of pitchers who undergo the surgery do not return to competitive baseball and many show improvements over their pre – op performance levels initially. What does concern, however, is that the success of these players is fleeting and that the elbow is a ticking time bomb. According to the same study pitchers who return to the majors stay for 3.9 more seasons give or take 2.84 years. That’s some loud variability and essentially means that a normal post Tommy John career lasts anywhere from one to seven years but the likelihood of it extending further is slim. That doesn’t mean as much for a guy like Charlie Morton who returned to the majors at 29 as he was injured during his prime. For prospects like Taillon or Kingham, who were developed to eat innings and have long careers, seven years doesn’t feel as great.
Another study by the Hardball Times shed light on how pitchers in different age cohorts recovered differently. Pitchers who had the surgery between 1997 and 2009 before the age of 23 tended to have longer life spans after they reach the majors, but they’re hardly exciting spans. The pitchers in that group made 93 appearances and pitched 221 innings on average. Keep in mind, these numbers are influenced by relief pitchers in the sample, but 93 appearances isn’t even two years worth of games for a solid bullpen arm. Even if you remove some of the influence of the relief pitchers only about 40% of all pitchers in that age group return and pitch more than 500 innings. While the prognosis for the prospects with Tommy John isn’t great, evidence suggests that youth results in some relative resiliency from the procedure.
From the Hardball Times http://www.hardballtimes.com/tommy-john-surgery-success-rates-in-the-majors/
There are exceptions to the rule but they’re very difficult to find. Kerry Wood went on to pitch another 1214 innings including two 200+ inning seasons as a starter. Of course, it’s worth noting that he was only a full time starter for the first five years following his surgery before becoming one of the stronger bullpen arms in baseball. John Smoltz pitched parts of nine seasons even though he underwent the procedure at 31. Stories like Chris Carpenter‘s are more common where he looked great and then hit a wall.
At risk of becoming just another Tommy John piece, let’s shift the focus to the Pirates, Taillon and their other early first round pick Gerrit Cole. Cole’s enjoying a breakout season in 2015 and flexing his muscle as a true ace while showing signs that the Justin Verlander comparisons made by talking heads when the Pirates drafted him weren’t outlandish. It took him over a year to settle in and start pitching to his potential and that’s relatively fast. It took Verlander even longer and pitchers that compare more closely to Taillon like AJ Burnett, and Josh Beckett took about a year and a half to three years to get their wits about them in the majors
If Taillon and the average post Tommy John pitcher have between two and seven years of shelf life in competitive baseball after their return and his learning curve once he reaches the majors is about one to three years, the Pirates can expect anywhere from zero and five years of the pitcher they drafted number two overall. Realistically, the window is probably somewhere in the middle.
Like the top end of The American Journal of Sports Medicine’s life expectancy for post Tommy John pitchers, major league teams have up to seven years of control for prospects they develop. Rightfully so, the Pirates have been very mindful of that control and have gone out of their way to avoid Super Two status where a player gets a salary bump to 20% of market value in a year where they should make about $500K. This number balloons as they progress through normal arbitration and it doesn’t just cost a team the extra money they spent in the first arbitration year. While Taillon’s not ready to return from injury right now, he should be by the end of July on a conservative timeline. At that point, the Pirates could keep him in AAA for the rest of the season and wait until next June to call him up to avoid Super Two. However the righty from Texas was getting very close to being major league ready before the injury and probably shouldn’t need much more time in the minors. Chances are Taillon won’t make it the full seven of control, at least not as a starting pitcher, and based on the nature of the injury and history, he’s a probable non – tender candidate before either his sixth or seventh year. Every pitcher has a finite number of pitches left, but after Tommy John surgery that number decreases. Why waste them in the minors and if the arbitration clock isn’t relevant, why worry about it?
The Pirates don’t normally overlook service time, but they would do well to ignore it in the case of Jameson Taillon. They should get him in the majors as soon as possible, maybe as a September call up or maybe as a bullpen option before that. Since there is a big league learning curve, he needs to begin amassing experience in the majors to maximize the amount of time he has at his best before he inevitably hits his Tommy John wall and his window to pitch at his peak value closes. At this point, the Pirates would be fortunate to owe Taillon an extra $3-4 million in arbitration year four because Taillon got there a year early. If history is an indicator, it’s not something they’ll likely have to worry about.
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Max Moroff has got off to a strong start in AA so far this year
Photo via MiLB (Mark Olsen)
The minor league season hasn’t even been one month, but as the calendar flips to May, a natural tendency is to evaluate how things have gone so far. Mike Bradley, Steve DiMiceli, and I thought it would be a good time to each look at three positive and negative trendlines so far down on the Pirates’ farm.
KEVIN’S POSITIVES
1. Max Moroff, 2B, Altoona — Moroff was drafted in the 16th round back in 2012 out of high school in Florida. He was older for his draft class, but has steadily progressed up the minor league ladder and is an age-22 year old in AA this season, which is right on track for what is considered a prospect at that level. He lacked the range to stay at SS, so the Pirates moved him to 2B last year, where he has continued to play this year at Altoona.
Prior to this season, Moroff had a pretty sketchy hit tool, but he always had good walk rates (albeit with high K rates around 22%). This year, Moroff has kept the great walk rate (14.1%), cut down on the K rate (14.1%) and is tearing the cover off the ball with a triple slash of .297 AVG/.400 OBP/.453 SLG. If the Pirates can somehow parlay Moroff into the middle infield picture, even as a utility player, that would be a huge win.
2. Jin-de Jhang, C, Bradenton — Full disclosure: Prior to the start of this season, I have been a Jhang doubter. In 2014, due to the quasi-logjam at catcher in the system, mostly due to the presence of newly-drafted Reese McGuire, Jhang was forced to play at Bradenton as a 21-year old that skipped Low A. Predictably, this did not end well, as Jhang put up a triple slash of .219 AVG/.263 OBP/.301 SLG.
This year, Jhang is repeating the level at age-22 and splitting time with McGuire at catcher and also DH’ing. He has gone full supernova in the month of April with a scorching line of .431 AVG/.474 OBP/.490 SLG in 51 at-bats. Hot month? Benefit of repeating the level? Maturing as a hitter? Whatever it is, Jhang has put himself back on the map of catching depth prospects for the Pirates, even if there is very little extra-base power in the bat.
3. Tyler Glasnow, RHP, Altoona — Really going out on a limb here, Kevin. I know…coming into the season he was either the #1 or #2 prospect in the whole system. But for me, I wanted to see him prove it at the meat grinder level of AA before I totally bought in. So far, he’s faring quite well in 16 IP with 6 BB, 17 K, and a 1.08 ERA.
These numbers aren’t quite his video-game-on-rookie-level numbers from 2014, but it would be unrealistic to expect that level of dominance to continue as he progresses. The blazing upper 90’s fastball is his calling card, but a plus curveball and developing changeup are what will decide how successful Glasnow is in the Majors. It wouldn’t be surprising to see him promoted in August to AAA and then put himself in line for a rotation look in Pittsburgh in July 2016.
KEVIN’S NEGATIVES
1. Luis Heredia — Heredia has yet to be assigned to a team this year due to poor conditioning coming into the year. Again. His stuff has backed up, as he now sits low 90’s on his fastball. Word on the street is that he’s not very coachable. Add it up all and he’s slip sliding off of my prospect radar and just about every other prospect evaluator’s radar, even as a 20-year old.
2. Barrett Barnes/Harold Ramirez/Connor Joe — The ability to stay healthy is the unofficial 6th tool for a player. These three players are all showing in their careers that they have the inability to do so. Ramirez and Joe have yet to play this season, while Barnes got into a whole five games before going down.
3. Reese McGuire, C, Bradenton — Drafted as the catcher of the future in 2013, McGuire has demonstrated above-average defensive skills, but his bat is lagging far behind. His walk rates are sub-par and he has almost no power in his bat, making him Pittsburgh’s version of the Padres’ Austin Hedges.
STEVE’S POSITIVES
1. Cole Tucker, SS, West Virginia — He’s got an empty batting average, but he’s 18 and holding his own in full season baseball. There is something to be said for that.
2. Zack Dodson, LHP, Altoona — His ceiling is probably pretty low, but it’s nice see him finally beginning to figure things out.
3. Max Moroff, 2B, Altoona — With Dilson Herrera gone and thriving in the Mets system, the Pirates didn’t have many interesting middle infield solutions in the upper minors till now. In a small sample size, his reduced K rate and all around BB:K make me think his hot start could be sustainable. This is why you draft guys at elite positions (Moroff was drafted as a SS) — you can move them off position later. The high BABIP gives me concerns.
STEVE’S NEGATIVES
1. Wyatt Mathisen, 3B, Bradenton — Everyone’s waiting for him to be Neil Walker and his slight up tick in hitting last season suggested he might be figuring it out. His slow start is disappointing.
2. Jose Tabata, OF, Indianapolis/exiled — The Pirates former LF’er of the future is mired so deep in the organization’s doghouse that he only has 48 PA’s for Indy, good for 9th on the Indians. It’s strange for me to feel sorry for someone saddled with millions of dollars, but I do. He could help a few major league teams, but his long term deal has him bound to Pittsburgh.
3. Alen Hansen, 2B, Indianapolis — I’ve often had concerns about how well Alen Hansen would do in the upper minors and, unfortunately, they appear to be legit. He’s still very young for AAA, but after not really killing it in Altoona, I’ll have to start questioning his upside if he can’t turn it around.
MICHAEL’S POSITIVES
1. Josh Bell, Max Moroff and Jin-De Jhang — All three have been hitting the lights out. Everyone knows Bell, but possibly not Moroff and Jhang. Moroff is a SS who is currently playing 2B in Altoona, due to Gift Ngeope playing SS (and could be doing this to focus on his bat). Jhang is in Bradenton catching some, playing some, and playing some DH.
2. Steve Lombardozzi and Deibinson Romero, Indianapolis — Both are looking like good infield depth options. Most people know Lombardozzi by now, as he was part of the much dissected Doug Fister trade, but Romero isn’t a household name. In the winter Steamer projected him to have the highest minor league WAR of all the minor league free agents. Romero has backed it up so far slashing .320/.463 /.640 with 4 HRs.
3. Subjectively it looks as if the Pirates’ high minors are dwarfing most teams in prospects. There are some terrible AA and AAA teams Indy and Altoona have been playing so far.
MICHAEL’S NEGATIVES
1. Stetson Allie, OF, Altoona — Allie isn’t taking the next step on offense so far this season. We all know about his power and beautiful BP swing but the average isn’t getting any better. He’s only hitting .231 and has 23 K’s to only 5 BB’s. His ship is starting to sail away without him.
2. The Altoona pitchers have done well on the scoreboard and have given up the least amount of hits in the Eastern League, but they also are last in the Eastern in K’s by 19 over the second to last team.
3. Nick Kingham, RHP, Indianapolis — Kingham is supposedly major league ready and waiting in the wings in AAA, but his starts haven’t been dominating. He has a great defense behind him, but his ERA is 4.85 through five starts. Until he can dominate AAA hitters he’ll marinate in the International League.
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Tyler Glasnow’s development could eliminate a huge question mark in the rotation in the upcoming years
Image from milb.com
With the dust completely settled on the big name players in the 2014-15 free agency class, the Pirates surprisingly nabbed two names on the list. Many expected them to make a big push to re-sign Francisco Liriano. Fewer thought they would succeed in locking the southpaw beyond his original two year stay, but they gave him 39,000,000 reasons to stay in Pittsburgh. The return of A.J. Burnett came completely out of the blue.
As I see the current rotation, it has a ton of depth, but it really feels like there is something missing in the middle. While ZiPS didn’t have much love for the top of the rotation, I have no beef with Liriano and Gerrit Cole highlighting the front end. We still may not have seen the best that Cole has to offer to this point in his career. The man with whom he’s most often compared to, Justin Verlander, didn’t break out fully until his third year in the league. Cole still has best-in-baseball upside. That alone is tantalizing.
I have no issue with the back end of the rotation or the depth either. As they have for the past few years, I think the Pirates can roll with anyone #6-10 in their rotation. Vance Worley and Jeff Locke appear to have the fourth and fifth spots in hand and both may come north in the rotation, depending on how quickly Charlie Morton get back on the hill. Beyond them, there is still Brandon Cumpton, Casey Sadler, Stolmy Pimentel and reclamation project du jour Clayton Richards. I’m not even getting into what this picture will look like in June once Nick Kingham and Jameson Taillon have pushed beyond their Super 2 threshold.
Here is the rub. Either Burnett or Morton will assume the #3 role at some point. The A.J. everyone remembers would be an outstanding middle of the rotation guy, but the A.J. everyone remembers is not likely to take the hill at PNC Park. The best case scenario as I see it for Burnett is that he gets off to a trademark hot start before settling into an ERA just under 4 from May to July. If he gets the Bucs that far, he’s already been a success even if he also has a trademark awful August. By then, the Pirates can explore their options on the trade market and will hopefully have a healthy Morton humming on all cylinders. Once he gets rolling, Morton should be fine for the Pirates as he’s not due for another major surgery until next year. At his best, he can be a passable #3, but he’s just not the innings eater you would expect a guy who gears his game as a pitch-to-contact guy would be.
So here is what I think a Pirates rotation looks like 8 deep on the first of April and by the middle of July:
Moving forward, here is what we know. Burnett won’t be pitching for anyone, Pirates or otherwise, in 2016. We can throw him right out. Second, the Pirates are running out of options on their depth options. As I mentioned already, Locke and Worley are out of options, as is Stolmy Pimentel. Cumpton has one left and the Pirates will need to find a home for him after this season. He could be a future#4 or #5, but with the crowded back end and escalating costs in the pen, he may also find himself in relief.
This group may find themselves superseded by top prospects in the very near future as well. What fans don’t want to hear is that good prospects bust. In our How Much An MLB Prospect is Worth, we broke down the frequency that top 100 players fail to have even modest success of 3 WAR over their first six years. Of the Pirates’ pitchers knocking at the door, Taillon is slightly better than a coin flip to succeed, where Kingham is slightly worse.
Take a look back at the 2010 Altoona rotation of Justin Wilson, Bryan Morris, Locke and Rudy Owens who anchored the Eastern League’s best staff and were the driving force towards the championship. This group had Pirate fans dreaming of what could be, but ultimately they fell short of unreasonably high expectations. Even though the group only produced two relief pitchers and a back end starter who has failed to establish himself, they’ve fared better than they should have, even if they didn’t live up to the pie in the sky expectations established for them. Kingham and Taillon are much more highly regarded than any of those four, but the point remains. Even seemingly safe prospects in the upper minors don’t always work out. While I wouldn’t project both to succeed, I would tap at least one to make it, even if there is a reasonable chance that neither does. Likewise, I can’t project prospects like Tyler Glasnow as top of the rotation even though many already have. I see him more as a back end of the bullpen type.
Cole presents as the staff ace until 2019, but I can’t really project him on the team beyond that. Provided he’s able to stick as the fourth man, I see the Pirates picking up the option for Ground Chuck for 2017. He and Liriano should stay fixtures in the rotation that long though, both could be getting shaky. For the sake of this piece, we’ll assume Taillon is the prospect who sticks and that he’ll be a solid three, or the halfway point between his ceiling and his bust.
The 2016 rotation is looking rather solid. Due to concerns with aging, 2017 doesn’t look quite as strong, as Liriano could be slipping as a number two at age 33. By 2018, there could be a hole in the top of the rotation, especially if Glasnow follows my projections. I feel comfortable projecting a prospect into the fifth spot of the 2019-2020 rotations after Locke and Worley run out of arbitration, though I have no clue who it will be. Looking ahead, 2017 might be the time for the Pirates to make a big push for a top of the rotation type of free agent pitcher. It would give them some insurance against an aging Liriano and could help stave off a complete rebuild in the event that Andrew McCutchen and Gerrit Cole leave after their control runs out.
Looking this far out is very difficult and to a fan, uncomfortable, especially when you take a very conservative but likely realistic look at how prospects develop. The research doesn’t allow much room for optimism when it comes to projecting pitchers. There isn’t a lot of certainty after 2017, but the good news is the Bucs have certainty in relative spades the next few seasons thanks to the Liriano contract and the Morton extension with the potential for more internal help if the prospects they have pan out.
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When will Taillon debut in Pittsburgh in 2015?
Photo via Inside Pitch
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It’s prospect season! That’s the time of year between the end of the winter meetings and when pitchers and catchers report dedicated to organization ranking lists and Top 100’s. It’s down time for everyone but the nerdiest of fans. We at The Point of Pittsburgh decided to join the fun. Where most lists stop at ten or thirty, we’re going all the way up to forty making ours the nerdiest list around.
Each of us completed our individual lists and then aggregated them into a complete list. Today, we’ll look at the top ten. Ages in parentheses are as of July 1st, 2015. We projected what level the player will spend the majority of the 2015 season, as well. In case you missed them, here are some links:
10. Harold Ramirez (20) OF, A+
Kevin Creagh – Has all the tools to be a starting OF, but I am a sizeist. It’s hard to see his 5’10” frame (yes, I know Cutch is the same height) starting for the Pirates long-term. Probable trade chip in the future
Steve DiMiceli – I think people overlook what he’s done at his age. He’s a potential Five Tool centerfielder, and even though you wouldn’t know it from the Pirates organization, they don’t grow on trees.
Michael Bradley – Potential 4 tool guy (minus the power). Injuries robbed him of time in ’14 but he’s still very young.
9. Elias Diaz (24) C, AAA/MLB
Michael – A plus backup catcher floor with a ceiling to be an average starter. Diaz breakout in ’14 gives the “FranChrisco” tandem some depth and provides a bridge to McGuire.
Steve – Has the defensive makings of a solid back up catcher, but I’d like to see the bat play a little higher at AAA before I’d call him the heir apparent for the starting catching role as some presume.
Kevin –If he continues to progress at AAA in 2015, Diaz could be 2016’s opening day catcher. Bat could be above-avg for position
8. Adrian Sampson (23) RHP, AAA
Steve – Sampson is another great example of why you shouldn’t lose your crap on a player when the Pirates move them quickly. Looking like a great back-of-rotation innings eater, but I bet he’ll reach that ceiling somewhere else.
Kevin – Broke out in 2014, probably a #4 long term. Could see the Majors in 2015 down the stretch
7. Reese McGuire (20) C, A+
Kevin – Touted as catcher of the future. Defense said to be Major League ready right now, but alarming lack of power (even doubles) is a flag for me. Yes, he’s young, but it was an empty average in 2014
Steve – His solid contact skills and defense will carry him through the minors but his ceiling is Ryan Hanigan if he doesn’t develop a little pop.
Michael – When you have a player that scouts enjoy watching play defense you know you have a gem. McGuire supposedly handles pitchers like a ML vet and has hit enough to keep getting promoted. He hasn’t shown a giant platoon split yet and is crazy young for an American born player. Ceiling is HIGH but his bat could fail.
6. Alen Hanson (22) 2B, AAA
Steve – I still have questions about whether or not the bat will translate to the majors, but he still has upside even at second base if he gets it together.
Michael – While he might be lower on everyone else’s list, the fact that he could contribute TODAY gets him this high. He’s super young, doesn’t have a large platoon split, could play some short and has JHay potential.
Kevin – Brings a nice blend of power/speed to 2B position. Attitude concerns lead me to believe that Pirates would move him in the right deal. Kang may have been a hedge for such a move
5. Josh Bell (22) RF/1B, AA/AAA
Kevin –If the power develops this year, could be 2016’s 1B. Move to 1B dings his value a touch, so #5 feels right
Michael – Probably the lowest you’ll see Bell ranked. His hit tool is OK, his defense is OK, his patience and power is OK for a corner. He’s not super young anymore. He’s an good prospect that could turn into a Nick Swisher type or a switch hitting Travis Snider.
Steve – While his second half power outage was concerning, Bell makes for a rare combination of pop and plate discipline. He could be heading towards that high ceiling of his.
4. Nick Kingham (23) RHP, AAA/MLB
Michael – While he’s a pitcher and has some of the same drawbacks that pitchers do, his risk is less. First, he’s succeeded at AA and a little at AAA. Second, he has the command and control it’s just a question of whether his stuff is good enough.
Steve – There is no such thing as a safe pitching prospect, but my goodness does Kingham feel like it. He likely won’t be more than a 3 but his ability to eat innings will play anywhere in the rotation.
Kevin – Solid #3 for me, also on verge of Majors
3. Austin Meadows (20) OF, A+
Kevin – Dynamic talent that was beset by hamstring injury in 2014. If he performs as expected, should be #2 on this list next year behind Glasnow
Steve – Meadows is still so far away, but if he can stay healthy while mashing A+ pitching as a third year pro, I suspect he’ll earn elite status.
Michael – The ceiling (5 tool star), the fact he can stick in CF and mainly the fact that he’s not a pitcher vault him up to #1 (for me).
2. Tyler Glasnow (21) RHP, AA
Michael – He’s number two mainly due to the fact that very few pitchers reach their ceiling or stay healthy. Gerrit Cole was more talented than him and still is only a 2 WAR player so far.
Kevin – May have higher upside than Taillon, but control still a slight concern, plus needing to prove it at AA. Enviable problem to choose between them
Steve – Glasnow has the highest ceiling in the system, but I still have concerns with his floor thanks to control. I think he’s a major leaguer but will he start?
1. Jameson Taillon (23) RHP, AAA/MLB
Kevin – Still a #2 level pitcher for me, on verge of Majors, fastball-curve combo should make him AJ Burnett
Steve – Tommy John surgery doesn’t even scare me anymore. Taillon looked like he could jump into a major league rotation as a solid 4 when I saw him pitch in Altoona. He’s a great combination of ceiling and floor.
Michael -Tommy John and the lack of a third plus pitch overcome the makeup, the body and his stellar appearance as a Canadian pitcher in the World Baseball Classic.
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Cervelli might not be Russell Martin but he has some great value. Photo Credit — Associated Press
Continuing with our trade value rankings of the Pirates organization. You can read the primer and #25-21 to catch up. On to the rankings:
20. Francisco Cervelli (29) – C – ML – 2 years of control, 2nd time through arbitration
Cervelli comes to Pittsburgh from the Yankees with a couple obstacles to being a popular player. First, he’s replacing a catcher in Russell Martin that played the best year at catcher that I ever remember. In a low offensive year, Martin had an OBP over .400 and made defensive plays deemed impossible (note that comment from Tony Sanchez). Also add in that Cervelli was traded for yinzer favorite, Justin Wilson, and you have a recipe for booing. But let’s talk about what Cervelli brings. Cervelli is defensively talented and is an excellent pitch framer. He’s not the physical freak that Martin is, nor does he take as many walks, but he does have power. He’s also in Jose Molina territory for pitch framing. He and Stewart should combine for a solid catching quorum with Tony Sanchez and another prospect to be ranked later (PTBRL).
19. Alen Hanson (22) – 2B/SS – AAA – 6 years of control, pre-arbitration
Alen Hanson is the Anne Hathaway of prospects. Some people love him while others don’t care for him that much. I’m in the former category. First, there are things about him that are non-debatable. He is very young for the levels he’s played at. He was the 9th youngest player in the Eastern League this year. He also will play the middle infield, probably second base. Other teams might still see him as a SS, as not every team uses a glove first SS these days. Hanson also shows 20 SB speed and takes walks. He has doubles power and could hit 10 HR. Finally, he ranked well in the newly created minor league VORP stat. Enough on the good. There is a reason BA left him off the Eastern League Top 20 prospects. Hanson’s 5.9% BB% this year wasn’t good, plus his .321 BABIP inflated the already low .280 BA. Some scouts don’t believe the .162 ISO. Add in the benchings for attitude and there is a lot to worry about. But it isn’t hard to see a switch-hitting 2B, atop a starting lineup everyday getting 700 ABs, while playing plus defense at 2B.
18. Nick Kingham (23) – SP – AAA – 6 years of control, pre-arbitration
Kingham was drafted in 2010, which is looking like a boom to the Pirates’ arsenal of starting pitching. Fellow 2010’er Jameson Taillon is knocking on the door of the majors, while Brandon Cumpton and Casey Sadler have starts already and should get a few starts between them this year. Nick Kingham has been deemed a safe #3 starter by basically every scout. I watched him pitch in Altoona and think he has great promise. It’s good seeing these guys pitch in the minors since it becomes obvious that they have agendas with each start. When I saw Kingham, he threw all fastballs the first two innings and then was working on his changeup. He gave up 4 runs to a decent team (Akron), but he showed consistent 94’s on the radar with good command. Trading Kingham now would bring a real nice return.
17. Tony Watson (30) – RP – ML – 3 years of control, 1st time through arbitration
Watson has done the prototypical march from failed starter to LOOGY to setup man and to closer-in-waiting. His WHIP averaged over the last 3 years is 1.01. Per Fangraphs, he was worth 1.3 WAR in 2014 for a mere $518k. He’ll only make $1.75M this year, since arbitration doesn’t pay guys much that don’t have many saves. He’s a guy who could bring a big return at this year’s trade deadline, if the Pirates happen to be out of it, and really wouldn’t hurt them too badly long term by his loss.
16. Reese McGuire (20) – C – High A – 6 years of control, pre-arbitration
Rarely do major league front offices talk much about a prospect in A ball. Reese McGuire is that exception and it’s because of his defense. McGuire is playing at a Chris Stewart-level defensively and he’s not even 20. It’s not just his blocking and throwing but his handling of pitchers that gets raves as well. Pirate fans have seen what a Russell Martin would do compared to a Ryan Doumit. If McGuire’s bat gets to even Chris Stewart’s level that is a great catcher.
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