Chad Kuhl’s path to the majors isn’t so easy right now.

We’ve heard a lot of talk, really since April, that the Pirates need to promote pitching prospects from the farm system to mend their starting pitching issues. In truth many talking heads had decided the rotation wasn’t good enough to begin with. A bad couple of turns through the rotation in Pittsburgh and the hot start on the mound by top prospects Tyler Glasnow and Jameson Taillon, as well as the lesser regarded Steven Brault and the heretofore unknown-turned-household-name Chad Kuhl, had some people ready for a full scale line change. Much to their chagrin, the only AAA starter promoted thus far has been Wilfredo Boscan for middle relief duty.

If everyone’s favorite quarterback is the backup, it stands to reason that people should also love their minor league pitchers. Evidently, the Pirates do as well with Neal Huntington stating that Taillon, Glasnow and Kuhl would all be called up to be starters.  This simplifies the situation to a certain extent as we know what their roles will be, but things have changed a little. Things have changed at the top of the totem pole and the overall the situation is a little more complicated.

Simply, the rotation doesn’t suck as bad. Jon Niese and Jeff Locke have pitched better of late. Niese has put together four consecutive strong starts going 25.66666667 innings while allowing only 7 earned runs with 5 walks to 16 strikeouts. The longball has still been an issue for him, but it’s difficult to see him coming out of the rotation if he’s pitching the way he is currently. When Jeff Locke was on his way to the All Star game, pundits were falling all over themselves to declare him lucky based on advanced statistics. None came to his aid when he posted a .409 BABIP in April. That evened out and then some in his 9 shutout innings in Puerto Rico Miami. Locke didn’t catch Zika against the Marlins, but he may be catching fire. Of course, that doesn’t count because no one saw as they were watching Game One of the Stanley Cup finals. He’s not a staff ace or an All Star again, but take two bad innings out of the equation and he’s been pretty steady.

The good news for those two is that Juan Nicasio makes for the obvious choice to lose his role as a starter. Not only has his form degraded (6.75 ERA in May), but he makes the most natural choice of the three to help the bullpen. He’s struggled with the longevity of his starts which might also suggest that shorter outing may improve his effectiveness. When he was signed, I thought he could shorten games by pitching in the sixth inning or as the Joe Blanton type, but shame on me, I had Arquimedes Caminero in the seventh. Thanks to Neftali Feliz stepping into the back end, I think he could assume that increasingly important swingman role in the bullpen.

His replacement is all but certainly Taillon. Two years of mending TJ and other ailments and the young Texan doesn’t appear to have much further to go before he finally makes his major league debut. We can likely count the days on two hands.  While Kuhl leads the International League in ERA and Glasnow in K/9 at the time this piece was written, Taillon’s overall stuff and statistical package make him appear the most ready to come in and succeed right now.

One problem. He has an innings limit due to so much time off from live baseball and the organization has been mum on the specifics. The Pirates wisely skipped one of his starts in AAA, but it’s difficult to imagine him staying in the rotation much past the end of August. For me, the natural fit for Kuhl could come as Taillon’s eventual replacement. Don’t get me wrong, Kuhl’s numbers have been excellent and his power sinker has generated a ton of ground ball outs. While he’s struck out at a higher rate than earlier in his career, he still hasn’t struck them out at a high enough rate to suggest an easy transition to the show. Kuhl’s secondary pitches likely still need work as major league hitters can barrel a sinker if they know its coming. On top of that, he’s only spent two months in Indy. Rather than Super Two, real developmental concerns and experience could be holding Kuhl back.

Neither Niese nor Locke will block Glasnow from the majors, but they could allow the Pirates to apply another coat of polish in AAA before he gets called up. While Glasnow has an excellent fastball and a curve to match, his changeup needs work and a more regular place in his arsenal according to multiple outlets. On top of that his control has become more erratic in the month of May (4.63 BB/9 after managing 3 BB/9 in April). His strikeout rate remains excellent and his overall numbers merit a promotion despite the walk rate spike. However, the numbers aren’t always a great indicator of readiness, just ask Aaron Blair and the Atlanta Braves earlier this season. Eventually, he’ll replace one of Niese or Locke, but not because a date has past where the Bucs believe they can save some cash on him over his career. Ultimately, I think injury rather than inability could provide the push needed to facilitate his promotion. If that doesn’t happen, it will be when he’s truly ready. For now, he can focus on getting better rather than winning the NL Central.

If Jameson Taillon is the most major league ready player in the Pirates’ system, Josh Bell could be number two. No one talks about him because the need simply isn’t there. Not only is he blocked at first base, but he’s blocked on the bench as well. Without including defensive replacement Sean Rodriguez, the Pirates have six corner players with 50 PAs who are OPSing better than .750. To put that in perspective, the Cubs have four counting Matt Szczur, who may or may not get to fifty by the time this is published. Even though Bell is currently on fire after a bit of a slump, there isn’t a peep about his promotion on the internet, not even to serve as DH in the just-completed Texas series. He may get what very few Pirates prospects over the last 25 years have gotten: an entire season to simply get better in the minors.

Taillon’s path to the majors is clear, but Glasnow and Kuhl might have a more meandering trail to follow. To continue the metaphor, Bell is just wandering around the forest hoping to find a blaze marking.  This has nothing to do with money, but improved performances by the players ahead of them reducing the sense of urgency to call prospects up fast and before they’re ready. As I noted with in the case of Glasnow, or four in the case of Bell, we’re almost to the point in the season where elite prospects could serve as depth. Until then, there aren’t any guarantees that the guys in the minors can provide a better performance than those already on the big club, but giving them a little extra time could be make Glasnow, Kuhl and Bell better players in September or next season than they would be focusing on results over development in the majors.

The impending arrivals of Tyler Glasnow (left) and Jameson Taillon (right) will alter the look of the Pirates pitching staff

We are only a couple of weeks away from mid-June, which is when top prospects magically have all figured out what they needed to learn in the minor leagues and are called up within a few days of each other.  It totally has nothing to do with the Super 2 deadline.  Nothing at all.

The Pirates’ pitching staff has been a work in progress since jump street this year.  Many fans are eagerly awaiting the arrivals of top prospects Jameson Taillon and Tyler Glasnow, plus the potential arrival of lesser prospect (but quite effective) Chad Kuhl.  Here’s one man’s opinion of how and when it will all shake out.

I’ve staked out June 11th as Tyler Glasnow’s glorious ascension from Triple-A Indianapolis to Pittsburgh, so I’ll stick with that.  Glasnow is already on the 40-man roster, so no corresponding move will have to be made in that respect.  However, to get him on the 25-man roster, I would either put Ryan Vogelsong on the 60-day DL (if the Pirates are feeling charitable) or outright release him (if they are not).  Vogelsong is only making $2M this year, so the Pirates would be eating a shade over $1.2M in salary.  Even before his gruesome orbital bone fractures from being hit by a pitch, it was clear that Vogelsong is kind of running on fumes.  As for what Tyler Glasnow’s role would be, I would insert him directly into the rotation and…

…move Juan Nicasio to the bullpen.  Stick with me, Jeff Locke haters (97.8% of all Pirates fans).  Here’s a look at all the Pirates’ starters for the month of May (thru games on May 24th):

It looks like Gerrit Cole is rounding off the rough edges, but the rest of the rotation has been sub-standard.  By just ERA, Nicasio has been atrocious, even though his FIP is showing him more in line with the rest of his awful rotation mates.  Nicasio is only averaging 5 innings per start and his velocity has been wavering from inning to inning in his starts.  I feel that by moving him to the bullpen, you could strengthen the bullpen by installing him as the 7th inning guy along with Neftali Feliz.

When Jameson Taillon is deemed ready to arrive in Pittsburgh, whether that’s at the same time as Glasnow or plus/minus a few days, I would also insert him into the rotation…for a little bit of time, at least.  Taillon would replace either Niese or Locke, most likely Locke as it would be a tough public relations pill to swallow for the front office if the player directly traded for Neil Walker is relegated to the bullpen so quickly.  The Pirates, though, are carefully monitoring Taillon’s 2016 workload, as evidenced by them skipping his most recent Triple-A start to preserve his arm.  Taillon is also already on the 40-man roster, so no corresponding move would be made, but to put him on the 25-man roster I would either option A.J. Schugel back to Indy or come up with another phantom DL stint for Arquimedes Caminero (if he has not returned from Wednesday’s DL stint for a “strained quadricep”).  If Caminero, who is out of options, is DFA’ed, he will get snapped up by someone hoping to coax some control out of that 100 mph arm.

I would use Taillon in the rotation until the August 1st trade deadline is reached.  If the Pirates can obtain a solid starter at the deadline, I would then move Taillon to the bullpen.  It’s hard to project what the composition of the bullpen and their health may be on August 1st, but one of Schugel (if not already optioned)/Caminero (if not already dealt with)/Boscan could be the corresponding move to free a bullpen spot.  At that time, the full pitching staff could look like this:

• SP1 — Gerrit Cole
• SP2 — Francisco Liriano
• SP3 — Tyler Glasnow
• SP4 — Trade deadline pickup
• SP5 — Jon Niese

• Closer — Mark Melancon
• Setup — Tony Watson
• 7th inning — Neftali Feliz
• 7th inning — Juan Nicasio
• Fireman — Jared Hughes
• Floater — Jameson Taillon
• Long man — Jeff Locke

On paper, that is a much stronger bullpen than currently exists and a rotation (depending on the hypothetical deadline pickup) that is much heartier than the one that exists at the end of May.

And none of this scenario even involves Chad Kuhl, who could be a strong addition to the bullpen and maybe an improvement to the rotation.  Kuhl would involve a 40-man roster move (I’d take Trey Haley off the 40-man), but his 25-man move would be intriguing.  The Pirates could forgo the trade deadline pickup person and just slot him into the staff that way or else they could be bold and move Jon Niese or Jeff Locke in a trade.  But that is one bridge too far for this exercise, as it’s hard for me to envision the Pirates bringing three rookie pitchers into the heat of a playoff chase.

The Pirates are going to bring up Jameson Taillon and Tyler Glasnow.  Their talent is simply too strong to deny for much longer.  The real game will be to see the machinations of the roster moves and the roles that they will be asked to play.

Whether a coincidence or not, the Pirates have had success in the 5th round with college pitchers Waddell (2015 draft, left) and Wilson (2008 draft, right).

It’s hard to say that a team has a type of player they look for in a certain round.  Every draft is its own living organism and teams are taking players they want based on talent and signing bonus demands.  However, one could look at the eight drafts completed under Neal Huntington and say that the Pirates might have a thing for college pitchers in the 5th round.

The 2016 draft will take place from June 9-11, so the 5th round will occur on Friday the 10th.  There’s a better than average chance that the pick will be a college pitcher, especially one that is considered somewhat polished from a major program.  In eight drafts, the Pirates have drafted five college pitchers in the 5th round.  (A 6th pitcher was a high school pick by the name of Tyler Glasnow, who is obviously shaping up to be the most successful 5th rounder of all eight).  Interestingly, the here-to-now bookends of Huntington’s tenure, 2008’s Justin Wilson and 2015’s Brandon Waddell, were both lefties and both prominent members of College World Series-winning teams.

The Pirates are very methodical at their placement and movement of players within their minor league system.  For the most part, it is one rung at a time, with certain exceptions for players performing well outside the curve.  But there’s seemingly always one college-drafted pitcher that gets skipped over Low-A during their first full season in the Pirates’ system.  That happened to both Justin Wilson and Brandon Waddell, in addition to 2012 5th round draftee Adrian Sampson, who was traded to the Mariners for JA Happ last July and is flourishing in Triple-A for them.

Wilson is well-known to you, loyal Pirate fan, but to quickly recap — cultivated as a starting pitcher, but his control issues of routinely posting 4+ walks per 9 innings precluded him from starting in the Majors, became a powerful lefty reliever, traded for Francisco Cervelli.  Brandon Waddell may be less known to you.  Waddell got a taste of the minors last year after his extended run to winning the College World Series with Virginia.  As I mentioned, he was skipped over Low-A and assigned to High-A Bradenton where he proceeded to put up five dominant starts (4-0, 0.93 ERA, 29 IP, 13 H, 2 BB, 26 K).  He was then quickly promoted even further to Double-A Altoona on May 3rd.  This is fairly unprecedented for the Pirates, who are reticent to move players up quickly, especially not until mid-June after the fresh crop of draftees are in the system and prospect promotions typically happen.  Waddell has acquitted himself well in Double-A with a 3-0/2.41 ERA/18 IP, 15 H, 2 BB, 12 K performance in three starts.

Even though Waddell is off to a sizzling start, his ultimate upside is probably that of a #3/#4 starter.  His fastball sits 90-92 mph with a very good slider and workable changeup, as well.  I fear he may be relying on his somewhat deceptive release to fool lower level hitters at this point in his career.  Getting to the Majors at all is a great feat for a 5th rounder.  There have been some studies a few years back that showed the rate is around 30% for all drafted 5th rounders to make the Majors and less than 10% will enjoy careers featuring more than 1.0 WAR.

Barring injuries, Waddell seems as if he has a strong tailwind of support from the Pirates’ front office and will be pushed accordingly until resistance is met.  It appears the Pirates may have been having an internal debate over his initial 2016 placement then promoted him early once he proved someone wrong.  It would be hard to envision him moving up to Triple-A this season, but with Glasnow/Taillon/Kuhl all possibilities to see Pittsburgh this year, someone is going to have to pitch in the rotation in Indianapolis.  Assuming he stays in Altoona the remainder of 2016, Waddell seems to be a lock to start at Indy in 2017.  With Cole-Liriano-Taillon-Glasnow shaping up to be the front four in the rotation for 2017, there may not be a lot of room at the inn for Waddell to see Pittsburgh mid-2017.  But his ascent heretofore has been swift and somewhat unexpected, so a mid-2017 debut in the Majors wouldn’t be the most ridiculous thing I’ve heard.

Two weeks from now all eyes will be on the Pirates’ 1st round pick on Thursday, June 9th.  But keep an eye on who they draft in the 5th round the next day, too.  Odds are in favor that it will be a solid, college pitcher that the Pirates have strong hopes for.

Francisco Cervelli will be framing pitches and causing females to swoon for three more years in Pittsburgh.
Photo by Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

During lunchtime on Tuesday, the Pittsburgh Pirates announced that catcher Francisco Cervelli was signed to a 3 yr/$31M extension.  This was a move that we both forecast and advocated.  With this signing, the entire set of eight starting position players are now under team control for 2017.  Here’s the prices for each of them:

• C Francisco Cervelli — $9M
• 1B John Jaso — $4M
• 2B Josh Harrison — $7.75M
• SS Jordy Mercer — $3.5M (arb. estimate)
• 3B Jung-ho Kang — $2.75M
• LF Starling Marte — $5.33M
• CF Andrew McCutchen — $14.2M
• RF Gregory Polanco — $1.6M
• TOTAL — $48.13M

Prior to this extension, I was under the impression that the Pirates current contention window was going to start to close after the 2017 season.  After 2017, Francisco Liriano would be a free agent, Francisco Cervelli would have already been gone for a year, and the Pirates would be making the decision on whether or not to trade Andrew McCutchen prior to his final team option year of 2018.

One signing shouldn’t alter my thinking on things, but this signing is pointing me to two thoughts:

• The Pirates seem serious about fielding a strong contender in 2017
• The window may be pried open to 2018 while they retain McCutchen on his team option

With the imminent arrival of Tyler Glasnow and Jameson Taillon this season, the 2017 rotation is shaping up to be both potentially potent and economical.

• Gerrit Cole — $6.25M (arb. estimate)
• Francisco Liriano — $13.67M
• Tyler Glasnow — $0.5M
• Jameson Taillon — $0.5M
• TOTAL — $20.92M

If you add up the starting eight plus the top four pitchers, as shown above, you get $69.05M.  Assuming a $110M payroll, that leaves $41M of payroll flexibility to fill out the bench, bullpen, and fifth starter.  And when you factor in that some of those 13 remaining spots could be filled by players on minimum salaries (Josh Bell, Alen Hanson) or small salaries like Chris Stewart’s $1.4M, that leaves even more money to invest on key areas.  Some of the monies will potentially be allocated to arb-eligible players like Tony Watson, Juan Nicasio, and Jared Hughes, but there could still be a couple of mid-size splurges.

The free agent market this offseason is shaping up to be a desolate wasteland of available talent, but perhaps the Pirates may go the trade route with teams either looking to shed salaries or in the midst of rebuilding efforts.

With Cervelli’s signing in the books, the Pirates can now potentially control all the players shown above in 2018, with the exception of Francisco Liriano.  I still don’t believe the Pirates will be able or willing to retain McCutchen whenever he reaches free agency after 2018, but this move at least plants the tiniest of seeds that it is possible.  Very tiny.  I’m still being realistic to the financial aspects of such a long-term move and still believe that the window can be extended even further if McCutchen is traded for the right mix of both short and long-term assets.

But now the Pirates have locked up a catcher at below-market rates that should at least retain league-average offense and plus defensive chops, especially in the all-important pitch framing category.  Having a catcher that’s not a zero offensively at the plate is a huge bonus and helps lengthen the lineup, especially when that catcher can get on-base with the frequency that Cervelli possesses.

The Pirates only make a signing when it works for them in terms of years and cash outlay.  The years are why players like Russell Martin and JA Happ are now plying their trades north of the border.  Cervelli wanted to stay here and the Pirates agreed they wanted him here for the correct financial terms.

How the Pirates will build off of this move in the offseason, quite a ways from now of course, is what will reveal their belief in the team moving forward.  This move is a good sign.

I included the Grizzlies after watching The Revenant last night

Ironically, as I write this I’m preparing to go to a AAA game.  No, it isn’t the Indianapolis Indians, as I’ll actually be watching the Charlotte Knights take on the Durham Bulls.

As I skim through the rosters for both teams I recognize some names.  Blake Snell of the Bulls and Tim Anderson and Matt Davidson of the Knights are very good prospects, but I’m also seeing Chris Volstad, Travis Ishikawa and Jaff Decker.

As Alabama said in there 1994 song, “Our ball club is minor league but at least it’s AAA”:

While there is some good talent for both teams, there are only maybe 2-3 legit prospects for both the Bulls (Rays) and the Knights (White Sox).  This is nothing like the Pirates AAA squad at Indy.    I’ve mentioned subtly in my articles this year, but my boss KC (I guess we’re the Sunshine Band?) told me to try my best to inform the TPOP readership of how good the Pirates AAA squad currently stands.  Well here goes:

First, coming up with comps that TPOP and Pirate fans will know is a little tricky.   Also, HT to the rest of the Sunshine Band for helping me tighten up this list.  I organized the list so that it could read like a starting lineup, partial rotation and partial bullpen.  It’s just coincidence that our eight could be put into a lineup… and a credit due to the position flexibility of the players.

The Pseudo Prospects:

Gift Ngoepe can’t hit RH pitchers worth a darn, but his glove is amazing, he hits LHP well and he has good pop and speed for a SS.

Dan Gamache hits LH, can play all infield positions and has a good amount of patience at the plate.   He might not quite hit enough, but he could reach that Rob Mackowiak ceiling.

Boy is Willy Garcia huge but he can still stay play a decent CF and has a cannon for an arm.   Also, he has great splits against LHP and should be able to one arm homers the opposite way at PNC.   His ceiling of Jose Guillen is a pipe dream and his most likely of Craig Wilson is totally an offensive comparison.

The C+ Prospects:

Adam Frazier’s position flexibility is what will get him called up; that and his ability to avoid striking out (lifetime K% of 11.5%).  Frazier also has the “correct” platoon split, as he hits better against RHP than LHP ( .331/.390/.424 in 331 ABs against RHP last year).   Cross your fingers and hope for Ben Zobrist or Mark Ellis.

My son’s name is Max Anthony and he’s a wildcard.  Max Anthony Moroff is a wild card as well.  Moroff has one less elite minor league season than Frazier, but he’s two years younger at the same level.  He looks like a good fit at 2B where I watched him display plus range in Altoona last year.  He’s scuffling a little at AAA this year but he’s not needed for a while.  By June of ’17 he could be called up to infuse some life into the offense like….

…Alen Hanson is doing as we speak.   Hanson is heading to Pittsburgh to fill in for Starling Marte while he’s on paternity leave.  Hanson has been on prospect folks’ radar for a long time.   He’s a guy that can fill up the stat sheet with 2B, 3B, HR’s and SBs   Hanson is still young and could be our 2B for a long time once he gets the opportunity.

One of the big missing players this season has been Elias Diaz.  Diaz, the cannon-armed cat of a catcher, needed arthroscopic surgery to clean up his elbow and has been on the DL.  Diaz will not hit like Mike Piazza in the show but as long as he hits like Michael Lavalliere that will be fine.  Diaz also has a strong platoon split, as he crushes LHP, which might be convenient as he will probably backup initially.

The Bullpen(?) Triumvirate 

Chad Kuhl might end up as a back end starter with his good two pitch mix and Steven Brault might use his cutter to go 5-6 innings in the show.   Trevor Williams is still the new guy with not many innings due to some minor injuries and he could be a starter for the Bucs as well.  My money, and most other people’s, is that they’ll all be relievers; but they’ll be really good relievers.  Look at the stability Melancon, Watson and Hughes have brought to the bullpen the last few years.  The three guys in AAA could do the same thing for 6+ years and for cheap.

The Hopeful Cornerstones

Can Josh Bell replicate the smooth swing of Will Clark?

I love the Will Clark comp for Josh Bell (H/T Steve DiMiceli) as Bell’s at-bats harken back to Clark.   Bell battles at the plate and doesn’t give the pitchers anything.  He also stings the balls and rarely K’s.  He could be a batting champion and his makeup is incredible.  The sky is the limit.

We can’t say much more about Glasnow and Taillon that hasn’t been said.   Taillon was a big investment that hasn’t been utilized yet, but looks solid and Glasnow looks likes a lottery ticket that may hit.  We’re lucky to have these two gems and hope they can lock down rotation spots for a while.

Final thought

Realize all these players will receive the league minimum salary for three years (plus the first half season if past Super Two), then have cheap arbitration salaries for a couple more.  This gives our team tremendous flexibility with its 25 man roster.

Back in the dark ages of 1997 the Pirates had a whole payroll of $9,071,667 but the team was terrible.  In a couple years a large portion of the team could be making the league minimum and yet be really good.  That’s what a stellar minor league system can do for you.

Will Josh Bell be joining 2011 draft mate Gerrit Cole in Pittsburgh soon?

I prescribe to the old scouting maxim that a team should get one starter and one bench/bullpen guy out of each draft, in order to call it a successful draft.  Getting some talent out of each successive draft is important to keep the young, cost-controlled talent faucet flowing.  Now, getting two contributors to the Majors out of forty draft picks may sound easy (that’s only a 5% success rate!), but it’s incredibly difficult.

Firstly, not every player drafted gets signed by the team.  Out of the (now) 40 draft rounds, the Pirates may only sign 30 guys.  Some guys are drafted as flyers, to see if the team can tempt them to give up riches three years down the road for the opportunity to start playing professional ball now.  Secondly, others are signed with the intent to be purely organizational soldiers — players that occupy roster spots in the lower levels to fill rosters and provide some stability to a roster.  These guys are never really expected to advance past Double-A, with most shaking out of the system after just a year or two.  Most of the talent that the team is actively interested in is within the first 10 rounds of the draft, so now you’re really dealing with a 20% success rate.

We’re now one month out from the 2016 MLB Draft that will be held from June 9th-11th, so it’s fair to cast an eye back five years to the 2011 Draft.  It’s also said that it takes 4 to 5 years to truly evaluate a draft in whole, although I think some drafts are easier than others to know when the talent is not up to par, so let’s gaze upon a draft that I already consider a success that’s about to get even better.

The Pirates drafted first overall in 2011 and took a young flamethrowing pitcher out of UCLA named Gerrit Cole.  If the Pirates decided to kick their feet up and not draft anyone of note after Cole (like the Pirates seemingly did in the Dave Littlefield years after their 1st round picks), then this draft would be deemed a win by me.  Cole is an ace and those are a rare commodity in the game.  Don’t listen to people who ride the ebb and flows of every start and nitpick every facet of Cole’s inning-by-inning progression through a game — he’s an ace.  Cole is a horse that will consume 200+ innings, get better than a strikeout per inning, keep his ERA/FIP under 3.00, and (most tellingly for me) gets better as the game progress along.

Is Cole the best pitcher in the Majors?  No, he’s not, but that’s just as much a byproduct of the ridiculous pitching times that we live in more than anything.  Are there things he could do better, like holding runners on base, perhaps?  Sure.  No pitcher is a machine.  Except Arrieta.  He might be a machine.

But by the end of June, Cole may have some company in the Pirates’ rotation in the form of 2011 draft mate, 5th round pick Tyler Glasnow.  I wrote about why Glasnow won’t be up until at least mid-June (mark me down for June 11th in the office pool) and if you’re reading this article, you probably already know about Glasnow and his potential.

For me, Glasnow’s a #2 pitcher at his peak.  Cole is under control through 2019 and Glasnow is under control through 2022, so the Pirates will have their top two pitchers for at least three+ years together.  (Although not germane to this article about the 2011 draft, in 2017 the Pirates will also have Jameson Taillon in the rotation and the last year of Francisco Liriano.  Cole-Liriano-Glasnow-Taillon is a far different 1 through 4 than this year.)

Getting two top of the rotation pitchers (potentially) from one draft would be a bonanza.  But the cherry on top of the draft may also be arriving in Pittsburgh at some point this year in 2nd round pick, 1B Josh Bell.  I’ve not been the biggest Bell supporter in the past due to his lack of in-game power, but he’s forcing me to re-evaluate my opinion so far this year.  At Triple-A, Bell is off to a .290/.385/.450 start with 3 HR’s in his first 26 games.  He’s not threatening Joey Gallo for the minor league home run chase, but considering his single year high of homers is 13, this is a move in the right direction.

For an upcoming TPOP article, Steve, Michael, and I were coming up with some ceilings/floors/likely outcomes for various Pirates prospects.  For Bell, one of us tossed out a Will Clark ceiling and that one’s starting to grow on me.  Clark is in the Hall of Very Good, with great contact and moderate power for a 1B.  I think we would all take Clark’s career for Josh Bell.

So getting two stud pitchers and a starting 1B out of one draft?  That’s a bingo.  It would clearly be the most productive draft of Neal Huntington’s tenure, better than the foundational 2008 draft that produced Pedro Alvarez, Jordy Mercer, and Justin Wilson (who begat Francisco Cervelli), and far outpacing any of the others to date.

There are a few other players that could be the metaphorical sprinkles on top of the sundae in the form of Jason Creasy, Dan Gamache, and Clay Holmes, but none are stars and may just receive a cup of coffee (it at all).  If Glasnow and Bell can complement the work already being put forth by Cole, it really won’t matter.  And as a postscript, remember when I mentioned up-article about taking flyers on players?  The Pirates did that with a high school shortstop in the 20th round named Trea Turner.  The same stud prospect that will be up with the Nationals this year and a soon-to-be-fixture in their lineup at SS.  Now that would have been an epic draft.

For a refresher, July 1st is the cutoff for age:  for example if a player turns 23 after July 1st this would be his 22 year old season.

The average age is 23.61 and if you omit the 32 year old Antoan Richardson in AAA the average age becomes 23.5 which I think is pretty good.

A.J. Schugel who just got called up last week is the only 27 year old on the farm (assuming he comes back down) Ed Easley is the only 30 year old.

The oldest player is the aforementioned Richardson and the youngest is Ke’Bryan Hayes at 19.

The ROYGBP color scheme goes youngest to oldest with Reds and Oranges being the 19-23.  So, if you’re a reddish player in AAA or AA like Glasnow or Meadows/McGuire your future’s so bright….

Working my way down this chart so you can read along.  Let’s talk AAA.

AAA

Tyler Glasnow is very young and is one of the youngest in AAA per Baseball America, but he’s only three months younger than Max Moroff.

Jhondaniel Medina, while never on my prospect radar, is crazy young for AAA and this will cause me to pay more attention to him.

I think Stephen Brault and Trevor Williams’ age and non lights out stuff will get them to the bullpen to gain mph and become the next Watson and Hughes (hopefully),

Starter Chad Kuhl is young for AAA and is NOT on the 40 man.  He’d be a great trade chip to sell high on come this July or could be a Tony Watson type bullpen stalwart for many years.

Josh Bell is one month from being a 24 year old in AAA.   Hopefully he takes advantage of the time Jaso bought him and hits the ball like George Bell in 1989.

Jung Ho Kang is currently hitting like a 29 year old AAAA member but hopefully he starts beating up on the pitchers in the IL.   Darn you Chris Coghlan.

AA

Austin Meadows is crazy young for AA and would be knocking on the door at AAA if not for the orbital injury.  He’s almost two full years younger than Glasnow.

Catchers develop slower so Reese McGuire has history on his side.  His young age at AA is also a benefit.

Jin-De Jhang is two months from being a 22 year old in AA (a very good age for AA).  He has a strong arm, walks and hits RHP well.  He’s a good bet for a backup catcher adding to the Pirates depth.

Edwin Espinal is the only 22 year old in AA and is being giving the opportunity to break out this year.

Clay Holmes is young at 23 in Altoona but would probably be in AAA if not for the Tommy John surgery.

I’m one of the few remaining Stetson Allie fans, but he was old when he was drafted and is looking ancient in AA.   He needs to crush LHP and get to AAA.

On to High A and Bradenton.

High A

“Drive By” Cole Tucker is a choir boy whose body is a blank palette for a fan to dream on.   Long levers is the term of choice.  If the shortstop position is vacant when he returns this month due to Kevin Newman hitting his way to AA, Tucker might be the youngest player in Bradenton.    When you think about it, if Tucker hadn’t been injured he would have been the starting SS in Bradenton at an age TWO years younger than Newman.

Heredia is still a mountain of a being, but barely able to drink legally as a young one in high A.   I doubt he ever sees the show, but he’s still young enough to be on the right track.

I didn’t realize that Brandon Waddell was so young.   He’s a month away from being a 21 year old in High A and if he keeps up his performance of late he’ll be in AA soon.

Taylor Gushue was very young when he was drafted and was a bit of a wildcard due to the fact that he was a backup behind college superstar Mike Zunino most of his college career.   Gushue is hitting well in High A and might force Huntington’s hand if he keeps it up through midseason.

Jordan Luplow reeks of a Cardinal prospect: young enough to be given time to develop, solid hit tool and no perfect position.   If he becomes a Tommy Pham or a Steve Piscotty I would not be surprised.

Poor Connor Joe.  He is supposedly a tremendous teammate and person who has battled injuries, ineffectiveness and has been usurped by younger prospects.    I wouldn’t be surprised for him to wash out soon and join the Pirates’ minor league coaching staff.

Low A

Ke’Bryan Hayes is making everyone look old and inept, as he is playing very well at Low A creating a potential infield logjam at High A if he gets promoted.

Cole Tucker would still be young for Low A if he starts there vice High A.

Michael De La Cruz technically isn’t in Low A yet but will be if/when Tito Polo get bumped up to Bradenton.

Mitch Keller has been dominant in his first few starts but is still on the right side of 21.  If keeps this up he could see High A by midseason and force the Bucs to make a hard decision (High A or AA) for next year’s opening day.

Realistically, the group from Tito Polo down through Logan Sendelbach are the same age.   Polo is the most recognized name but he’s NOT really been recognized as much a prospect and needs a big breakout this year if he wants to surpass some of the OF prospects.   The most revered of all this fivesome is Carlos Munoz.   He’s a Mexican product, which leaves a bit of variance and he hits everywhere he goes, causing him to show up on the Baseball America Top 20 for the Appy League in 2015.   Hopefully he becomes our Matt Adams.

Mitchell Tolman is as good of a defensive 3B as I’ve watched live.    He’s got great instincts and has a cannon for an arm.   He could be a homegrown Brent Morel here in a couple years which is not a terrible thing for you chucklers.

Will there be playoff baseball at PNC Park for the 4th straight year?

It’s fashionable this time of year to making a prediction about the Pirates’ win total.  I’m going to go position by position to attempt to come up with an estimate based on some underlying math, not just a wild toss at the dart board.  But first, we need a baseline.

Pythagorean Adjustment

-5 Wins

I’m a strong believer of all things Pythagorean when it comes to right triangles. I’m not sold on it when it comes to using run differential to re-calculate what a baseball team’s record ought to be. That said, the Pirates overachieved on their way to 98 wins last year and their Pythagorean puts the 2016 Bucs back on a more reasonable baseline of 93 wins.

Catcher

– 2 Wins

I love Francisco Cervelli as a personality. I really like Chris Stewart as his backup. Part of the Bucs overachieving last year stemmed from Cervelli playing big for his britches. I also have a hard time expecting them to keep their backstops completely healthy for a third year in a row. I expect good productivity, but it’s hard not to expect a couple of snags and a minor step back.

1st Base

+1 Win

I always predict the Pirates better at first base and it never happens. Jaso isn’t the ideal first base bat, nor is he the ideal leadoff hitter. However, he might walk 50% of the time if spring training means anything (it doesn’t). He likely won’t be a huge help, but he probably won’t hurt too much either. Michael Morse fits the power prototype a little more and could be the X-factor. If he hits closer to his ceiling, he could relegate late signing David Freese to the backup third base role.

And if nothing works, Josh Bell could slide into the role by June. No matter how you spin it, they’ll likely be better at the position at first.

2nd Base

Push

There are quite a few folks who may not buy this, but I don’t think there will be a huge difference between the production the Pirates get from Josh Harrison versus what they would have gotten from Neil Walker. Harrison struggled last season and folks seem quick to forget just how well he did in 2014. I think he will rebound and match Walker’s 2015 production, but make no mistake, his ceiling is higher than the Pittsburgh Kid’s.

Shortstop

+ 0.5 Wins

2016 Jordy Mercer will look to out do the somewhat disappointing version of himself. Mercer will hope to keep up his solid defense while improving his all-around offensive production and he could do that with a better start to the season. So far is his relatively young career, he sports a .181 / .248 / .189 in March and April. Our nerdiest readers would immediately note the .008 ISO that makes singles-hitting 2015 first round pick Kevin Newman look like a slugger. Our readers who still get most of their statistical breakdowns from Topps would see one double as his only extra base hits in 127 at-bats. By the way, May could use some work too.

3rd Base

+2 Wins

Jung-ho Kang is going to be a star and it starts in 2016. He was one of the best rookies last season and while he’s a touch long in the tooth for a guy about to enter his sophomore campaign, I don’t think he’s reached his peak. Not even close. Kang exceeded a lot of people’s year one expectations including my own. I expected an adjustment period and if that’s adjusting, I’m looking forward to what he looks like when he’s comfortable.

Right Field

+0.5 Win

Every year, I predict improvement in right and every year it’s about the same. Gregory Polanco is often cast as one of the most unlucky players in 2015 based on hard hit outs. In truth, his line drive and hard hit ball rates are in the normal range as is his BABIP. While he made some loud outs, he had 652 plate appearances. That’s going to give you plenty of opportunities to make loud outs. Of course, I think Polanco will hit better, and thankfully he’s still crazy young. In the long run, he’ll be a solidly above-average all-around right fielder thanks to base running and defense, but his offense is still likely to stay below average for at least next season.

Center Field

+ 1 Win

Andrew McCutchen triple slashed .292 / .401 / .488. He came in fifth place in NL MVP voting. This is what a down year looks like for the Pirates’ center fielder. Cutch is heading into his age-29 season so it’s highly reasonable to expect a big rebound. I’ll go conservative, but I would be surprised if last year wasn’t the worst of his prime. While I still expect a characteristically slow start, I suspect he’ll heat up a little sooner in 2016 before taking over the world in June.

Left Field

Push

We’ve seen three full seasons of Starling Marte, and as all over the place as his consistency can be during the season, full year totals are remarkably grouped. His OPS, ISO, BA, and OBP have all hovered around the same neighborhood. Every year, the numbers have turned out decent, but he’s yet to take it to the next level. The numbers could tick up, especially if he keeps the K rate under 20% again and finds more grass. Still, it’s hard for me to expect anything but steady.

Starting Rotation

– 3 Wins

Might as well just end the season now, right? At the moment people are only viewing the rotation as it stands. Here’s my thing, the top of the rotation looks great. Niese and Locke look ‘meh,’ but I’m intrigued by Juan Nicasio and his amazing spring. That makes an above average one and two, a below average three and four, and a complete wild card rounding it out. If Nicasio has a Ray Searage-induced breakout, he could turn out to be the biggest of a long list of steals. Then there are Tyler Glasnow and Jameson Taillon waiting in the wings. I’m not sure if Glasnow will be as ready as some hope, but Taillon has from all reports gotten back on track despite the long lay off. If the Pirates end up with the five they have for the entire season, folks jumping off the bridge could be right to. The rotation will very likely be less productive, but it’s unlikely to be as unproductive as some think with reinforcements on the way.

Bullpen

Push

I think the bullpen is top notch this year, but it was top notch last year. Mark Melancon and Tony Watson are as good a one-two, or should I say eight-nine, punch as anyone in the league. They have a little more depth to start 2016 with Arquimedes Caminero having proven himself as a potential set up man freeing up Jared Hughes for situational use. Neftali Feliz gives the Bucs another solid option and Searage another project.

***

That brings my projected Pirates win total to 93 in 2016. 1200 words later and I guess I could have just left it at the Pythagorean and saved all of us a lot of time. Thanks for reading I guess.

The good news is that 93 wins almost certainly gets you into the playoffs. The bad news is it’s likely another wildcard game in Pittsburgh. As demoralizing as the ending to last two seasons has been, I’ll take a one game playoff bail out over no playoffs at all.

Juan Nicasio is making a case for the 5th starter spot
Photo by Peter Diana/Post-Gazette

Spring training stats don’t mean anything.  If they did, 1B Mark Johnson would be wrapping up a Hall of Fame career and Edinson Volquez wouldn’t have been given a chance to deliver his incredibly solid 2014 campaign.

But sometimes they mean a little something.  In 15 innings this spring, Juan Nicasio has yet to allow a run and has struck out 24.  Many people are painting his performance as an open competition for a starting rotation spot for the Pirates coming out of Spring Training.  The bloodlust amongst the fanbase for Jeff Locke’s head have Nicasio targeted for his spot, but in my opinion the only competition is between Nicasio and Ryan Vogelsong.

As I showed a couple of weeks ago, the 38-year old Vogelsong had terrible splits last year and pretty much may be just a 5 inning starter at this point.  But it’s not as if the 29-year old Nicasio is some savior, either.  Last year, he was solely a reliever for the Dodgers and was pretty effective for them.  In 58 innings, he delivered a 3.86 ERA/2.83 FIP with a 10.09 K/9.  However, he had a very high walk rate at 4.94 BB/9.  For his career, as both a starter and reliever with the Rockies and Dodgers, his walk rate is 3.42 BB/9 — not an ideal number.

His only full season as a starter came in 2013 with the Rockies.  In 31 starts spanning just 157 innings, Nicasio had a 5.14 ERA/4.25 FIP and a 6.79 K/9 with a 3.65 BB/9 rate.  The rest of his career as a starter before and after that season were very spotty, never pitching more than 93 innings.  Nicasio isn’t a reclamation project in the same guise as Burnett and Volquez, two pitchers that were once great but needed some tweaks.  There just isn’t the same base of work to build off of with Nicasio.

The fact that Nicasio is even pitching at all is a minor miracle.  Back in August 2011, he took a liner back to the mound off his face with such force that he broke the C-1 vertebra in his neck and had a small plate installed.

Nicasio was signed for $3M after the Dodgers non-tendered him.  Vogelsong was signed for $2M after the Giants gave up on him.  Although each is only here on a 1 year deal, Nicasio actually has two years of team control, if the Pirates see fit to offer him arbitration after this one.

Having Nicasio in the bullpen where his fastball can play up to 95-97 mph, as it did last year in relief, could be a more versatile asset than having him as a 5 inning starter sitting 92 mph with mediocre stats.  But the fact remains that Ryan Vogelsong may not have much left in the tank, contrary to what he told Ray Searage upon signing here.

If the choice is watching Vogelsong struggle to get through 5 innings or have Vogelsong assume a pure long relief/mop-up role, the answer for me is to put him in the bullpen.  See what you have in Nicasio as a starter, even if he too is just a 5 inning capable starter at this point.

The 5th starter, whoever it may be, just needs to hold the fort down long enough for either Tyler Glasnow or perhaps Jameson Taillon to show enough progress (and have the calendar move past the mid-June Super Two deadline) for one of them to debut in Pittsburgh.  For me, I would start off with Juan Nicasio on the bump.

Dr. Neal ElAttrache doesn’t count Cole Tucker as his most famous patient.

• Our friends at Fangraphs think that John Jaso will have a productive year: RotoGraphs
• Unfortunately Jesse Biddle was claimed by the Braves.  He seems like a stellar human being and we wish him well.
• If you’re not familiar with John Sickels, please get familiar with him.   He’s a great independent input on prospects and grew his brand from nothing to a household name.    He released his Pirates prospect rankings this past week.   A couple comments regarding that:
  • If you have no history with Sickels I will tell you this:  The Pirates are crazy deep.   The B- prospects and C+ prospects are the most I’ve ever seen.   C prospects aren’t terrible and the Pirates are so deep they aren’t even all listed.  Use another system to compare…like the White Sox or Indians.
  • He is bullish on Harold Ramirez like many are.  I can’t wait to check him and Meadows out in Altoona (although for Meadows, I guess it will be around June after his recent orbital fracture).
  • He ranks Reese McGuire low but is still a B-, not a big deal.  He’s higher than all others on Kevin Kramer which is good to hear.
  • This depth PRIOR TO the draft makes me think we will make a big deadline deal this year.
• The national sports writers hyping the Dodgers’ prospect depth made me checkout the Dodgers list on Sickels site.   Count this as location #1 where the media will speculate Andrew McCutchen to be dealt to next offseason (non-NL Central, large budget for extension, plenty of top notch prospects).
• Steven Nesbitt offered a story on Pirates left-hander Steven Brault and his musical background.   Too bad the Bucs didn’t land Bronson Arroyo to sing backup vocals for Brault.
• I don’t think I mentioned the Fangraphs ZIPS projections yet this offseason.   If you haven’t seen them they are entertaining to even the non-stathead as they come up with comparable players for everyone on the 40-man.   The article even has high praise for my brother’s old favorite player Dale Murphy.
• Harrison’s “double” last week was SOOO Harrison.
• I love seeing Elias Diaz homering off a RHP last weekend.   His MiLB splits prove to me that he’ll hit enough against LHP and we all know about his glove.  Hitting some against RHP will be icing on the cake.
• Speaking of Diaz, he and Hanson as well as the more often mention Taillon and Glasnow, should stay in the minors until after the Super Two deadline.  These guys are too important to the future of the Pirates to give away years of eligibility and millions of dollars to get a couple extra weeks of performance.  BTW – Hanson’s comp on the above referenced ZIPS is Jose Reyes.
• 
• Count me as one of the few people not over-looking the Reds this season.  Billy Hamilton leading off with Joey Votto, a potentially healthy Devin Mesoraco and Jose Pereza in the hitter friendly confines of Cincy.  Their rotation is young and their bullpen is weak, but they’ll have lots of competition. They will be a problem for us this year.
• The AAA rotation is so deep it will probably force someone down to AA.  Glasnow, Taillon, Lobstein are shoe-ins for the AAA rotation and it looks like Wilfredo Boscan will be used as a starter, as well.  That would force either Trevor Williams or Steven Brault to AA.
• For a mere $9M, I’m really glad we brought back Melancon.
• In case you haven’t heard Pirates 2014 first round draft choice Cole Tucker is back early from his labrum surgery recovery and is already playing some shortstop.   Neal ElAttrache of the Kerlan Jobe Orthopaedic Clinic in Los Angeles performed the labrum repair.  ElAttrache repaired Kobe Bryant’s achilles tendon, Zack Greinke’s broken collarbone, as well as the knees of Tom Brady, Arnold Schwarzenegger, Charlize Theron and Ringo Starr.
• 43 days in the majors is all you need for a ML pension of $34k a year and lifetime healthcare.
• Former Pirate Adam LaRoche decided to retire and left $13M on the table.   I wouldn’t leave $13 dollars on a table.
• During the Rene Gayo interview last week he said that he has 33 scouts working for him in 12 different countries.

• Eccentric baseball writer and Twitter buddy of mine Dayn Perry has become an anagram expert.   This spring he is making anagrams out of the likely starting lineups for all ML Teams. His anagram lineup for the Bucs:
  1. Ron, Gargoyle Cop; RF
  2. A. Rhino-Hoss Jr.; 3B
  3. “Cat Crud” Wenchmen; CF
  4. Mr. Gelatin Rats; LF
  5. Ang Hogjunk; SS
  6. J.J. Hasoon; 1B
  7. Cecil Falcon Rivers; C
  8. Neon LaNash; 2B
  9. Rico L’Egret; SP
• Juan Nicasio’s impressive spring is making me predict one of the starters going on the DL to start the season and staying in extending spring training.

• Watching Jameson Taillon today hard to believe he won't help the Pirates big league club at some point this year.

  — JJ Cooper (@jjcoop36) March 16, 2016

• Early in the offseason Gerrit Cole (0r Rico L’Egret) was miffed when he was offered $10k less than he was supposed to, bringing up questions about pay structure in baseball, etc.   I thought this was ironic due to his $8M signing bonus for being taken 1-1.  I think someone like Gregory Polanco ($150k signing bonus) or Tony Watson ($85k signing bonus and 3.5 years at league minimum) have more reason to gripe about money.
• So far this spring Tony Sanchez is 2-10 with a 2B, a BB and 4 K’s with the Blue Jays.
• Three of the players being “hyped” in Japan as the Japanese season is about to start are Matt Hague, Garret Jones and ex-Buc farmhand Jamie Romak.
• The Book is often quoted by us baseball writers.  It was written by Tom Tango, Mitchel Lichtman, and Andy Dolphin to answer some of the unanswered questions in baseball.  Here’s a part from the lineup construction research.
  • “The lead-off hitter comes to bat only 36% of the time with a runner on base, versus 44% of the time for the next lowest spot in the lineup, so why waste homeruns? The lead-off hitter also comes to the plate the most times per game, so why give away outs? As for speed, stealing bases is most valuable in front of singles hitters, and since the top of the order is going to be full of power hitters, they’re not as important. The lead-off hitter is one of the best three hitters on the team, the guy without homerun power. Speed is nice, as this batter will have plenty of chances to run the bases with good hitters behind him.”
• My favorite current baseball chats:
  • Klawchat (Keith Law of ESPN insider)
  • August Fagerstrom chat (Fangraphs)
  • Dave Cameron chat (Fangraphs)
  • Jeff Sullivan chat (Fangraphs)
• As we start the 2016 season with a AAA rotation loaded with prospects I want to remind everyone of the past.   These were the games started leaders for the 2010 Indianapolis Indians:

• Michael Crotta	24	Donnie Veal*	9
  Jeremy Powell	21	Dana Eveland*	5
  Brad Lincoln	17	Chris Jakubauskas	5
  Brian Burres*	14	Kevin Hart	4
  Charlie Morton	14	Joe Martinez	4
  Daniel McCutchen	13	Brian Bass	1
  Hayden Penn	12	Jeff Karstens	1

• Craig Edwards at Fangraphs did an interesting article in which he determined the highest paid MLB positions.  DH and 1B are surprisingly the most paid position until you think about it.  1B and DH are pretty much the oldest players on most teams and have matriculated from other positions and thus have received the most access to free agent contracts.  This is why we have a hard time finding a cheap 1B.
• Speaking of 1B, during the 2013-14 offseason James Loney was everyone’s solution to the Bucs’ persistent hole at 1B.   Huntington offered him a three year contract but he signed with the Rays for the same money.  Since then he’s had a 1.4 and -0.6 WAR seasons and hasn’t been worth the 3/$27M deal he signed.
• Most Pirate fans won’t follow Jim Benedict now that he’s gone, but I will due to one interesting prospect.  Three years ago the Marlins had the #2 pick overall and bypassed NC State left-hander Carlos Rodon to draft high school pitcher Tyler Kolek.  Kolek has an impressive fastball but is as raw as they come.   If Benedict turns Kolek into Gerrit Cole he’ll start hearing the Searage comparsions.
• My favorite current baseball podcasts:
  • Carson Cistulli and Dave Cameron (Fangraphs)
  • MLB Pipeline Prospects with Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo (MLB.com)
  • ESPN Fantasy Baseball podcast with Tristin Cockcroft and Eric Karabell
  • Fangraphs fantasy baseball with Eno Sarris and Paul Sporer
  • Effectively Wild (Baseball Prospectus)
  • Baseball America
• Rinku Singh.   Remember that name?  He’s the Pirate prospect that won the Million Dollar Arm contest in India and was progressing up the Pirates minor league chain.   Well, I hadn’t seen his name in a while, but there have been sightings of him in Bradenton so I wondered what the deal was.  Here’s his last four seasons:
  • 2012 –  3-1, 3.00 ERA, 72.0  IP with 8.1 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9
  • 2013 – shoulder injured, missed whole season
  • 2014 – Tommy John, missed whole season
  • 2015 – elbow broke in 2014 fall instructs, missed whole season
• Singh does seem to be in the Pirates’ family of being a good person, so let’s hope he has a good 2016.