Two Pittsburgh-area products could be selected in MLB’s 1st round on Thursday.
TJ Zeuch (left, photo by Jordan Mondell) and Alex Kirilloff (right).

Baseball has been having a draft to select players since 1965, so this year is the 52nd time of this event.  The Pittsburgh region is on the verge of making history for the first time in the MLB Draft by having two local players potentially selected in the first round.

The first player is a near-consensus lock to be selected in the first twenty picks — Plum H.S. OF Alex Kirilloff.  The 6′-2″/200 Kirilloff has both speed and power, but he’s projected to be more of a right fielder long-term.  In a recent mock draft, MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo had the Indians selecting him at #14.  Most other mock drafts that I have seen have clustered him in the #10-20 slot range.  The recommended slot value for the #10 spot is $3.38M and for the #20 spot it is $2.32M, so if you are in the Plum area on Thursday night and hear loud cheering, it is probably from Clan Kirilloff becoming overnight millionaires.

With all of the turmoil that has surrounded Plum High School this past year with the multiple sex scandals involving teachers and students, this event could help ever-so-slightly lift the black cloud that has hung over the school district.  In no way will one player getting drafted make up for the horrific conduct of teachers, but it can at least give the students something to be proud of from their senior year.

It’s hard to see Kirilloff lasting until the Pirates select at #22, but he would be a great get.  Plus, he could fill the vacated Pittsburgh Kid slot that Neil Walker left behind when he was traded to the Mets.  I’m sure the ROOT Sports team and 93.7 The Fan would only mention he was from Pittsburgh once, twice, or 689 times per week.

The second player that may help make history is from the University of Pittsburgh — RHP T.J. Zeuch.  Although Zeuch is a native of Ohio, it would still be monumental to have two local products selected in the first round.  For the University of Pittsburgh, it would be only their second 1st round pick of the MLB Draft.  If you knew that pitcher Al Lachowicz was drafted in 1981’s first round, then give yourself a gold star.  (Unless you are actually the Al Lachowicz.  You get no credit for knowing that already.)

If you could design a pitcher that would intrigue the Pirates, it would probably be T.J. Zeuch.  The Pirates love tall pitchers with long levers and the 6′-7″ Zeuch fits that bill.  They love hard throwers and Zeuch’s 96-97 mph fastball with sinking action checks that box, too.  Add in the fact that he pitches his home games just 20 minutes away from the offices on Federal Street.  You have to think that Neal Huntington and/or a few key members of the Pirates’ draft committee have put some eyeballs on him at some point this spring.

Zeuch’s selection range seems to be a little wider than Kirilloff’s.  I’ve seen Zeuch going #15 all the way down to the end of the first round at #34.  Even if the arch-rival Cardinals select him at #34 don’t fret for Zeuch’s bank account.  The recommended slot bonus at #34 is $1.88M.  For me, I would love to see the Pirates grab Zeuch at #22 ($2.25M).  Although Mayo’s report said that his offspeed stuff is a little below par right now, even if he doesn’t fully develop he could be a strong bullpen option with that heavy, sinking fastball.  With the Pirates only having the 18th highest draft bonus pool at $7M, Zeuch would be a good get for them, as he would certainly sign for slot value or perhaps a shade lower.

The bonus pool money is for the first 10 rounds of the draft or any players after that given bonuses in excess of $100,000.  There are various penalties for going over one’s bonus pool, ranging from small taxes to the loss of future draft picks, so teams get creative with their slot allocations.  If a team wanted to select a high-value player with high bonus demands that slid down the draft, they could do so and then select some college seniors in the first 10 picks that would sign for far less than slot value.  These guys are happy to sign for $25,000 (as many may not be drafted at all), even if their slot value is $500,000.  The teams save money in the process to re-allocate accordingly.

So tune in to the MLB Network on Thursday, June 9th.  There’s a good chance that you can witness some local history being made.

I tell my boys to find a future wife that:

1. Goes to church
2. Drinks beer
3. Makes you laugh

While it’s possible a woman with these characteristics could be a psychopath, there’s a good chance she’d make a nice spouse.

I’m pretty sure the Pirates have a similar set of characteristics when choosing their future spouses in the draft.   My guess is:

1. High character
2. Intelligence on and off the field
3. Youth
4. Premium positions

Briefly touching on these characteristics:  #1 and #2 are obvious.   Youth is so important for the Pirates, because it allows for upside and “breakouts”.   Finally, catcher, shortstop, centerfield and starting pitcher carry much more weight than other positions because these positions are the hardest to find.   On to the horserace….

Post Positions

Picking the first overall pick in this draft would be difficult, especially without the access to players’  character and intelligence.  Guessing the 22nd pick is like finding a needle in a haystack, hence why I’m placing horse racing odds.

There are several top 15 guys that I think that the Pirates would take if they fall to them (Nolan Jones, Zack Burdi, Alex Kirilloff, Ian Anderson, Braxton Garrett, etc.) but the chances are slim.   Here are the remaining athletes I’m handicapping:

Longshots

Nolan Martinez (20-1) Great projectable pitcher from California high school with a high ceiling, youth and already a good changeup.  Probably tough for the Pirates to take him with 22 but maybe with 41 or 68.

Akil Badoo (20-1) LHH high school outfielder who can really fly.   His speed might keep him in CF and his bat has 20/20 potential.

Daulton Jeffries (20-1) College pitcher with a good feel for pitching.   He had some shoulder issues which caused teams to shy away.  His Mike Leake comps are inevitable due to his small stature and good command.

Justin Dunn (20-1) Out of Boston College and has the big time arm and an average curve and slider to go along with it.  He’s a little small so there are those questions, but he also is very young for a college draftee which is a plus.

Alex Speas (20-1) Is a black Georgia high school pitcher that is drawing Dwight Gooden comps due to his long lanky profile.  He only has a good curveball to go along with his plus fastball.   His frame could fill out more too.

Late scratch

In horse racing there are often late scratches before the posting and if it was in this draft it might be Cal Quantrill (18-1)  out of Stanford.   Imagine if Mark Appel had Tommy John his sophomore year and you basically have Quantril.    The things that Quantril might have on Appel is that he is known for his mound presence and he is very young for his class.   Lucas Giolito is making teams think twice about Tommy John.

Middle of the Pack

Hunter Bishop (15-1) is an Austin Meadows clone that played football as well as baseball.  He ultimately chose a baseball scholarship to Arizona State over a football scholarship to Washington.   He’s young for his class and his ceiling is higher due to committing just to baseball.

Eric Lauer (15-1) was recruited by Urban Meyer to play football but instead became the weekend starter at Kent State.   Lauer oozes athleticism and has a good feel for four pitches.   His upside is good Jeff Locke and his downside is…bad Jeff Locke?

Joe Rizzo (15-1) can “flat out rake” and has “plus makeup” which are music to the Pirates’ ears.   The high schooler’s downside is that he is maxed out physically at 5’9″ 194 and his lack of a perfect position.   Matt Carpenter is a reminder each year of how guys like Rizzo get overlooked.

Robert Tyler (15-1) and Cory Sedlock (15-1) are both good RH college pitchers in a year where there aren’t very many but that’s their only similarity.   Tyler throws a high 90’s fastball and balances that with a good changeup but he hasn’t figured out another breaking ball, whereas Sedlock is a sinker/slider guy that has a future as a Jared Hughes if his James Shields career doesn’t work out.

The only thing Jared Horn (15-1) has playing against him is that he’s a high school pitcher.   Horn has a great fastball and three other average pitches with good control.  He also has a leader’s approach as he was also the quarterback for the high school football team.

The Favorites

Hudson Sanchez (10-1) is the guy no one is talking about and those are the guys the Pirates take.  Look at these stats:

• Sanchez is the youngest American high school draftee, not turning 18 until October.
• He might be able to stick at shortstop.
• He has plus bat speed
• He has plus power

Why aren’t people talking about him more?

Nonie Williams (10-1) is a homeschooled kid who might not ever get shoved in his locker.   He is a shortstop with all the tools necessary to be a ML regular.   He even has got additional ceiling due to the fact that he’s new to switch-hitting, like Robbie Grossman was when the Pirates drafted him.    He’s bigger than some teams like their shortstops, but I doubt that would affect the Pirates.

It’s not possible to talk about William Benson (10-1) without mentioning Jason Hayward.   Both are black, both are LHH corner outfielders, both are mountains of men and both are from Georgia.   The reason the Pirates would like him is that he is one of the youngest high school players in the draft and he has plus bat speed.

Matt Thaiss (10-1) is the Kyle Schwarber of this class:  LHH college catcher with bat that is way ahead of his catching skills.   It’s hard to know exactly how the Pirates approach someone like Thaiss but I assume they like the upside of a player who could hit like Schwarber, and play some catcher if needed.    The Schwarber factor might get Thaiss picked prior to 22.

T.J Zeuch (10-1) is the local Pitt product that is wowing scouts.   If the Pirates pick Zeuch people would assume it has something to do with the local kid being drafted by his hometown team.   In reality, Zeuch has many of the things that the Pirates look for in a pitcher.   First, Zeuch is huge at 6’7″ and could probably fill out even more than his already 225 lb frame.   Second, he has a plus fastball and is working with a slider, curve and changeup that could all be league average.   Finally he’s one of the youngest college players in the draft and has that “age upside” the Bucs seem to crave.

Which horse will win?

—  Guys to keep in mind for the second round pick and beyond include high schoolers  Kahil Lee (LHP),  J.C.  Flowers (OF/RHP),  Robie Peto (RHP) and Noah Murdock (RHP), collegiate guys  Joshua Palacios (OF) ,Brandon Miller (RHP) and Tyson Miller (RHP) Canadian high schoolers  Andy Yerzy (C) and Jordan Balazovic (RHP), Juco pitchers JoJo Romero (LHP) and Mikey York (RHP) Puerto Rican high schooler  Mario Feliciano (C).

Tony Watson will be a solid replacement at closer in 2017.
Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images

I was surprised when the Pirates brought Mark Melancon back for his final year of team control this past offseason.  I was fairly convinced that at his eventual salary ($9.6M), he would be too pricey for the Pirates, yet he would still be appealing to plenty of teams around the league as either as closer or expensive setup man.

But Neal Huntington did not find an offer he liked and the Pirates decided to go once more into the fray with Mark Melancon as the closer and Tony Watson as the primary setup man.  As unlikely as it was to bring Melancon back at $9.6M, it’s highly unlikely that the Pirates will retain his services after this season.  It’s not in their nature to sign relievers for the 3-4 years that Melancon is sure to command on the open market, to say nothing of the salary commitment that he is due to receive.  It’s not too hard to envision a 3 yr/$30-33M deal in his future.

Tony Watson will be entering his final year of team control in the 2017 season, but with arbitration awards based on old-school counting stats, Watson won’t have a pile of shiny saves to drive his value up.  His arb-1 salary was $1.75M and his current salary this season is $3.45M, so I would roughly project him (based on the 25%/40%/60% arb scales we studied) to be around $5.5M for 2017.

Watson endured an awful April, which historically is his worst month over the course of his career, and that has affected his overall stats so far this year.  In both April and May, though, Watson’s walk rates (4.26 BB/9 in April and 3.oo BB/9 in May) are far higher than numbers he has posted for the past three seasons (1.51 BB/9 in 2013, 1.75 BB/9 in 2014, 2.03 BB/9 in 2015).  It remains to be seen where he will end up in 2016, but it is hard to envision him getting it anywhere below 2.5 BB/9 at this point.

Typically, teams are reticent to use a left-handed pitcher as a closer, due to the inherent nature of splits and the fact that most hitters are typically right-handed.  For Watson, though, there is virtually no difference in his splits versus left-handed and right-handed batters.

• v. LHB — .199 AVG/.270 OBP/.283 SLG, 7.84 K/9, 2.34 BB/9
• v. RHB — .207 AVG/.278 OBP/.335 SLG, 8.19 K/9, 2.64 BB/9

Watson’s fastball has plenty of life on it at 93 mph (which when you add the lefty bonus of 1-2 mph, plays like a 94-95 mph from a right-hander) and his 85 mph changeup is effective against righties, leading to his lack of platoon splits.  In fact, his changeup is historically his best pitch at a career-rate of +2.09 runs per 100 pitches thrown, with 2016 coming in at +2.87/100 pitches.

For the low price of $5.5M, the Pirates will be able to secure a top-tier reliever to function as their closer next year.  Now as for the year after that?  There aren’t any good options behind Watson, but that’s a problem (and an article) for another day.

Have we already witnessed the best of Andrew McCutchen’s career?
Photo by USA Today Sports

Here we sit on the leading edge of June, which is typically when Andrew McCutchen goes into his yearly summer overdrive.  But something this year doesn’t feel right.  The Pirates are winning and have the second best offense (by wRC+, offense generated above league average) in all of baseball with a 118 (18% above league average).  We’ve seen some wonderful offensive outputs this year so far, including a star-making performance from Gregory Polanco and an unusually solid performance from Jordy Mercer, but the one guy who has been left out of the party has been McCutchen.

His line through the first two months of the season is quite pedestrian (.256 AVG/.336 OBP/.457 SLG, 793 OPS, 115 wRC+).  He has only stolen one single, solitary base this year, continuing a trendline that has been dropping since 2013’s 27 stolen bases.  From Fangraphs, here’s his first two months split out in tabular form:

You can see he improved by a modicum in May, but an 805 OPS for McCutchen is nothing to write home about.  But perhaps you’re just waiting for the June hot air balloon to take off.  What I’m concerned about is that there may be less hot air in that balloon than in previous years.  In years past, McCutchen would come out of May with a bit of a bump into June over his April stats, but not so this year as he’s remained relatively flat.  Here’s a look at each of McCutchen’s OPS by months for each full season (March stats included with April, October stats included with September).  You can click to embiggen:

Statistically speaking, McCutchen’s potential peak was either in 2013 (8.4 WAR, MVP award) or 2014 (career high wRC+ of 169, 3rd place MVP).  Last year McCutchen was largely given a pass early on due to concerns over a potential knee injury, but then he came back with a torrid second half of the season.  That run of play hid the fact that 2015 was McCutchen’s “worst best year” in this period of four straight top-5 NL MVP finishes.  His wRC+ was “only” 146 and he had a somewhat pedestrian 23 HR/11 SB line.

Even more concerning is that McCutchen’s contact rates have been steadily on the decline, as well.  From Fangraphs, McCutchen’s overall contact percentage is only 73.5%, continuing a consistent decline from 2013’s 80.4%.  McCutchen used to be extremely strong on pitches in the strike zone (known as Z-Contact% on the chart), with his rate in 2013 at 87.6% but now dropped to 81.0%.  And to complete the triumvirate of bad trendlines, his swinging strike percentage is an all-time high of 12.7%, consistently increasing since 2013’s 8.9%.

I’ve been intrigued by McCutchen since his draft day in 2005 and can distinctly remember watching him play for the Hickory Crawdads at Lake County back in 2006.  I came away from that game convinced that McCutchen would be a very good player.  Mind you, not the excellent, in-the-conversation-for-top-10-player-in-baseball, player he’s been the past few years.  I thought he would be an excellent table-setter from the leadoff or #2 spot of the order.  Something like a 15 HR/40 SB kind of guy.  I didn’t envision (nor did many others) his evolution to a middle of the order force.

McCutchen is in his age-29 season.  It’s no secret that baseball players typically peak between 28 and 29 and ride that until a steep decline at age-32, by our studies.  This corresponds to the Pirates’ front office’s reticence to extend contracts too far past this decision age of 32.  The guaranteed portion of his contract is up after 2017.  If the Pirates pick up his 2018 option and keep him, rather than trade him to reload the team and/or farm on the fly, then that 2018 season will be age-31.  There was some talk in the early part of the year about McCutchen and the team getting together on another extension that will keep him in the black and gold for the remainder of the career.  It is starting to seem as if that may not be a great idea, especially at the term and money that McCutchen will be expecting.

None of this is to insinuate that McCutchen is a terrible player or a toxic asset.  Rather, it’s to perhaps to start to manage expectations moving forward.  The dynamic Andrew McCutchen that shouldered the load of offense for this team in the past four seasons may be ceding that responsibility to others.  There’s a chance that he’s not even the best outfielder in his own outfield at the end of the 2016 season.  And that’s OK.  Eventually all stars start to slowly dim on a long enough timeline.

Chad Kuhl’s path to the majors isn’t so easy right now.

We’ve heard a lot of talk, really since April, that the Pirates need to promote pitching prospects from the farm system to mend their starting pitching issues. In truth many talking heads had decided the rotation wasn’t good enough to begin with. A bad couple of turns through the rotation in Pittsburgh and the hot start on the mound by top prospects Tyler Glasnow and Jameson Taillon, as well as the lesser regarded Steven Brault and the heretofore unknown-turned-household-name Chad Kuhl, had some people ready for a full scale line change. Much to their chagrin, the only AAA starter promoted thus far has been Wilfredo Boscan for middle relief duty.

If everyone’s favorite quarterback is the backup, it stands to reason that people should also love their minor league pitchers. Evidently, the Pirates do as well with Neal Huntington stating that Taillon, Glasnow and Kuhl would all be called up to be starters.  This simplifies the situation to a certain extent as we know what their roles will be, but things have changed a little. Things have changed at the top of the totem pole and the overall the situation is a little more complicated.

Simply, the rotation doesn’t suck as bad. Jon Niese and Jeff Locke have pitched better of late. Niese has put together four consecutive strong starts going 25.66666667 innings while allowing only 7 earned runs with 5 walks to 16 strikeouts. The longball has still been an issue for him, but it’s difficult to see him coming out of the rotation if he’s pitching the way he is currently. When Jeff Locke was on his way to the All Star game, pundits were falling all over themselves to declare him lucky based on advanced statistics. None came to his aid when he posted a .409 BABIP in April. That evened out and then some in his 9 shutout innings in Puerto Rico Miami. Locke didn’t catch Zika against the Marlins, but he may be catching fire. Of course, that doesn’t count because no one saw as they were watching Game One of the Stanley Cup finals. He’s not a staff ace or an All Star again, but take two bad innings out of the equation and he’s been pretty steady.

The good news for those two is that Juan Nicasio makes for the obvious choice to lose his role as a starter. Not only has his form degraded (6.75 ERA in May), but he makes the most natural choice of the three to help the bullpen. He’s struggled with the longevity of his starts which might also suggest that shorter outing may improve his effectiveness. When he was signed, I thought he could shorten games by pitching in the sixth inning or as the Joe Blanton type, but shame on me, I had Arquimedes Caminero in the seventh. Thanks to Neftali Feliz stepping into the back end, I think he could assume that increasingly important swingman role in the bullpen.

His replacement is all but certainly Taillon. Two years of mending TJ and other ailments and the young Texan doesn’t appear to have much further to go before he finally makes his major league debut. We can likely count the days on two hands.  While Kuhl leads the International League in ERA and Glasnow in K/9 at the time this piece was written, Taillon’s overall stuff and statistical package make him appear the most ready to come in and succeed right now.

One problem. He has an innings limit due to so much time off from live baseball and the organization has been mum on the specifics. The Pirates wisely skipped one of his starts in AAA, but it’s difficult to imagine him staying in the rotation much past the end of August. For me, the natural fit for Kuhl could come as Taillon’s eventual replacement. Don’t get me wrong, Kuhl’s numbers have been excellent and his power sinker has generated a ton of ground ball outs. While he’s struck out at a higher rate than earlier in his career, he still hasn’t struck them out at a high enough rate to suggest an easy transition to the show. Kuhl’s secondary pitches likely still need work as major league hitters can barrel a sinker if they know its coming. On top of that, he’s only spent two months in Indy. Rather than Super Two, real developmental concerns and experience could be holding Kuhl back.

Neither Niese nor Locke will block Glasnow from the majors, but they could allow the Pirates to apply another coat of polish in AAA before he gets called up. While Glasnow has an excellent fastball and a curve to match, his changeup needs work and a more regular place in his arsenal according to multiple outlets. On top of that his control has become more erratic in the month of May (4.63 BB/9 after managing 3 BB/9 in April). His strikeout rate remains excellent and his overall numbers merit a promotion despite the walk rate spike. However, the numbers aren’t always a great indicator of readiness, just ask Aaron Blair and the Atlanta Braves earlier this season. Eventually, he’ll replace one of Niese or Locke, but not because a date has past where the Bucs believe they can save some cash on him over his career. Ultimately, I think injury rather than inability could provide the push needed to facilitate his promotion. If that doesn’t happen, it will be when he’s truly ready. For now, he can focus on getting better rather than winning the NL Central.

If Jameson Taillon is the most major league ready player in the Pirates’ system, Josh Bell could be number two. No one talks about him because the need simply isn’t there. Not only is he blocked at first base, but he’s blocked on the bench as well. Without including defensive replacement Sean Rodriguez, the Pirates have six corner players with 50 PAs who are OPSing better than .750. To put that in perspective, the Cubs have four counting Matt Szczur, who may or may not get to fifty by the time this is published. Even though Bell is currently on fire after a bit of a slump, there isn’t a peep about his promotion on the internet, not even to serve as DH in the just-completed Texas series. He may get what very few Pirates prospects over the last 25 years have gotten: an entire season to simply get better in the minors.

Taillon’s path to the majors is clear, but Glasnow and Kuhl might have a more meandering trail to follow. To continue the metaphor, Bell is just wandering around the forest hoping to find a blaze marking.  This has nothing to do with money, but improved performances by the players ahead of them reducing the sense of urgency to call prospects up fast and before they’re ready. As I noted with in the case of Glasnow, or four in the case of Bell, we’re almost to the point in the season where elite prospects could serve as depth. Until then, there aren’t any guarantees that the guys in the minors can provide a better performance than those already on the big club, but giving them a little extra time could be make Glasnow, Kuhl and Bell better players in September or next season than they would be focusing on results over development in the majors.

The impending arrivals of Tyler Glasnow (left) and Jameson Taillon (right) will alter the look of the Pirates pitching staff

We are only a couple of weeks away from mid-June, which is when top prospects magically have all figured out what they needed to learn in the minor leagues and are called up within a few days of each other.  It totally has nothing to do with the Super 2 deadline.  Nothing at all.

The Pirates’ pitching staff has been a work in progress since jump street this year.  Many fans are eagerly awaiting the arrivals of top prospects Jameson Taillon and Tyler Glasnow, plus the potential arrival of lesser prospect (but quite effective) Chad Kuhl.  Here’s one man’s opinion of how and when it will all shake out.

I’ve staked out June 11th as Tyler Glasnow’s glorious ascension from Triple-A Indianapolis to Pittsburgh, so I’ll stick with that.  Glasnow is already on the 40-man roster, so no corresponding move will have to be made in that respect.  However, to get him on the 25-man roster, I would either put Ryan Vogelsong on the 60-day DL (if the Pirates are feeling charitable) or outright release him (if they are not).  Vogelsong is only making $2M this year, so the Pirates would be eating a shade over $1.2M in salary.  Even before his gruesome orbital bone fractures from being hit by a pitch, it was clear that Vogelsong is kind of running on fumes.  As for what Tyler Glasnow’s role would be, I would insert him directly into the rotation and…

…move Juan Nicasio to the bullpen.  Stick with me, Jeff Locke haters (97.8% of all Pirates fans).  Here’s a look at all the Pirates’ starters for the month of May (thru games on May 24th):

It looks like Gerrit Cole is rounding off the rough edges, but the rest of the rotation has been sub-standard.  By just ERA, Nicasio has been atrocious, even though his FIP is showing him more in line with the rest of his awful rotation mates.  Nicasio is only averaging 5 innings per start and his velocity has been wavering from inning to inning in his starts.  I feel that by moving him to the bullpen, you could strengthen the bullpen by installing him as the 7th inning guy along with Neftali Feliz.

When Jameson Taillon is deemed ready to arrive in Pittsburgh, whether that’s at the same time as Glasnow or plus/minus a few days, I would also insert him into the rotation…for a little bit of time, at least.  Taillon would replace either Niese or Locke, most likely Locke as it would be a tough public relations pill to swallow for the front office if the player directly traded for Neil Walker is relegated to the bullpen so quickly.  The Pirates, though, are carefully monitoring Taillon’s 2016 workload, as evidenced by them skipping his most recent Triple-A start to preserve his arm.  Taillon is also already on the 40-man roster, so no corresponding move would be made, but to put him on the 25-man roster I would either option A.J. Schugel back to Indy or come up with another phantom DL stint for Arquimedes Caminero (if he has not returned from Wednesday’s DL stint for a “strained quadricep”).  If Caminero, who is out of options, is DFA’ed, he will get snapped up by someone hoping to coax some control out of that 100 mph arm.

I would use Taillon in the rotation until the August 1st trade deadline is reached.  If the Pirates can obtain a solid starter at the deadline, I would then move Taillon to the bullpen.  It’s hard to project what the composition of the bullpen and their health may be on August 1st, but one of Schugel (if not already optioned)/Caminero (if not already dealt with)/Boscan could be the corresponding move to free a bullpen spot.  At that time, the full pitching staff could look like this:

• SP1 — Gerrit Cole
• SP2 — Francisco Liriano
• SP3 — Tyler Glasnow
• SP4 — Trade deadline pickup
• SP5 — Jon Niese

• Closer — Mark Melancon
• Setup — Tony Watson
• 7th inning — Neftali Feliz
• 7th inning — Juan Nicasio
• Fireman — Jared Hughes
• Floater — Jameson Taillon
• Long man — Jeff Locke

On paper, that is a much stronger bullpen than currently exists and a rotation (depending on the hypothetical deadline pickup) that is much heartier than the one that exists at the end of May.

And none of this scenario even involves Chad Kuhl, who could be a strong addition to the bullpen and maybe an improvement to the rotation.  Kuhl would involve a 40-man roster move (I’d take Trey Haley off the 40-man), but his 25-man move would be intriguing.  The Pirates could forgo the trade deadline pickup person and just slot him into the staff that way or else they could be bold and move Jon Niese or Jeff Locke in a trade.  But that is one bridge too far for this exercise, as it’s hard for me to envision the Pirates bringing three rookie pitchers into the heat of a playoff chase.

The Pirates are going to bring up Jameson Taillon and Tyler Glasnow.  Their talent is simply too strong to deny for much longer.  The real game will be to see the machinations of the roster moves and the roles that they will be asked to play.

Whether a coincidence or not, the Pirates have had success in the 5th round with college pitchers Waddell (2015 draft, left) and Wilson (2008 draft, right).

It’s hard to say that a team has a type of player they look for in a certain round.  Every draft is its own living organism and teams are taking players they want based on talent and signing bonus demands.  However, one could look at the eight drafts completed under Neal Huntington and say that the Pirates might have a thing for college pitchers in the 5th round.

The 2016 draft will take place from June 9-11, so the 5th round will occur on Friday the 10th.  There’s a better than average chance that the pick will be a college pitcher, especially one that is considered somewhat polished from a major program.  In eight drafts, the Pirates have drafted five college pitchers in the 5th round.  (A 6th pitcher was a high school pick by the name of Tyler Glasnow, who is obviously shaping up to be the most successful 5th rounder of all eight).  Interestingly, the here-to-now bookends of Huntington’s tenure, 2008’s Justin Wilson and 2015’s Brandon Waddell, were both lefties and both prominent members of College World Series-winning teams.

The Pirates are very methodical at their placement and movement of players within their minor league system.  For the most part, it is one rung at a time, with certain exceptions for players performing well outside the curve.  But there’s seemingly always one college-drafted pitcher that gets skipped over Low-A during their first full season in the Pirates’ system.  That happened to both Justin Wilson and Brandon Waddell, in addition to 2012 5th round draftee Adrian Sampson, who was traded to the Mariners for JA Happ last July and is flourishing in Triple-A for them.

Wilson is well-known to you, loyal Pirate fan, but to quickly recap — cultivated as a starting pitcher, but his control issues of routinely posting 4+ walks per 9 innings precluded him from starting in the Majors, became a powerful lefty reliever, traded for Francisco Cervelli.  Brandon Waddell may be less known to you.  Waddell got a taste of the minors last year after his extended run to winning the College World Series with Virginia.  As I mentioned, he was skipped over Low-A and assigned to High-A Bradenton where he proceeded to put up five dominant starts (4-0, 0.93 ERA, 29 IP, 13 H, 2 BB, 26 K).  He was then quickly promoted even further to Double-A Altoona on May 3rd.  This is fairly unprecedented for the Pirates, who are reticent to move players up quickly, especially not until mid-June after the fresh crop of draftees are in the system and prospect promotions typically happen.  Waddell has acquitted himself well in Double-A with a 3-0/2.41 ERA/18 IP, 15 H, 2 BB, 12 K performance in three starts.

Even though Waddell is off to a sizzling start, his ultimate upside is probably that of a #3/#4 starter.  His fastball sits 90-92 mph with a very good slider and workable changeup, as well.  I fear he may be relying on his somewhat deceptive release to fool lower level hitters at this point in his career.  Getting to the Majors at all is a great feat for a 5th rounder.  There have been some studies a few years back that showed the rate is around 30% for all drafted 5th rounders to make the Majors and less than 10% will enjoy careers featuring more than 1.0 WAR.

Barring injuries, Waddell seems as if he has a strong tailwind of support from the Pirates’ front office and will be pushed accordingly until resistance is met.  It appears the Pirates may have been having an internal debate over his initial 2016 placement then promoted him early once he proved someone wrong.  It would be hard to envision him moving up to Triple-A this season, but with Glasnow/Taillon/Kuhl all possibilities to see Pittsburgh this year, someone is going to have to pitch in the rotation in Indianapolis.  Assuming he stays in Altoona the remainder of 2016, Waddell seems to be a lock to start at Indy in 2017.  With Cole-Liriano-Taillon-Glasnow shaping up to be the front four in the rotation for 2017, there may not be a lot of room at the inn for Waddell to see Pittsburgh mid-2017.  But his ascent heretofore has been swift and somewhat unexpected, so a mid-2017 debut in the Majors wouldn’t be the most ridiculous thing I’ve heard.

Two weeks from now all eyes will be on the Pirates’ 1st round pick on Thursday, June 9th.  But keep an eye on who they draft in the 5th round the next day, too.  Odds are in favor that it will be a solid, college pitcher that the Pirates have strong hopes for.

The best ballpark in all of MLB
Photo by Brian Grublis for TPOP

Late last week, news broke that the Texas Rangers were exploring options with the City of Arlington to construct a new ballpark to replace Globe Life Park.  Normally, this wouldn’t be particularly newsworthy except that Globe Life Park was only built in 1994.  So in the timeframe of me graduating from high school to present, this gorgeous ballpark (that I visited in 1997) has become obsolete in the Rangers’ eyes.  Couple this with the fact that just five short months ago, the Rangers and Arlington announced a public-private partnership on a $200M development around Globe Life Park for hotels, retail, and mixed use commercial/residential developments.

So what changed?

In the news releases, the Rangers cite the need for a retractable roof system to combat the stifling summer Texas heat. For over $900M, that’s a heck of a roof.  I’m sure that there are plenty of other money-making amenities envisioned for this new ballpark, above and beyond what currently exist for the Rangers.  Arlington’s mayor also mentioned in the piece that Arlington didn’t want to lose the team, presumably to adjacent Dallas.

While I was at the Pirate game on Friday, I was reflecting on the Rangers desire for a ballpark to replace a perfectly good 22-year old asset.  PNC Park is widely acknowledged as either the number 1 or 2 best ballpark in MLB (ahead or behind AT&T Park for the Giants) and was built in 2001.  When the infamous Plan B was passed back in 1998, there was a huge public outcry that the taxpayers were funding a stadium without having a referendum on the subject.  The $262M PNC Park — and let’s have an interlude to acknowledge how amazing it is that PNC was built for that small of an amount, as it seems like $500M is the entry point for any stadium nowadays — was being funded with a $143M local share.

PNC Park has perfect sightlines from every point in the park.  There are ample luxury boxes, the facilities for the players and visitors are top notch, there are tons of sponsorship opportunities, and the setting on the river could probably never be replicated elsewhere.  But one day, whether it is next year, 10 years from now, or 50 years from now, the Pirates will formulate some reason that PNC Park is outdated and needs to be replaced for the economic good of the franchise.

Perhaps there will even be a threat of moving the team if the City of Pittsburgh doesn’t pony up cash to help fund this venture.  And to that I would say “go ahead” and call their bluff.  No team has been relocated since the Expos moved from Montreal to Washington, D.C. in 2005 and became the Nationals and that only happened because the team was in MLB-receivership for 3 years prior after Montreal ownership let the Expos die on the vine.  MLB doesn’t want franchises to relocate; they’re actively talking about expansion, instead, because expansion fees can be charged to incoming teams, while there is no money brought in to the other teams via relocation.  Teams may have shifted within their own metropolitan markets, but no team has been actively relocated since San Francisco and L.A. departed New York and Brooklyn, respectively, in the 1957 offseason.

There are teams that are begging to be relocated, like the Tampa Bay Rays and Oakland Athletics, who should be in Montreal and San Jose, respectively, but MLB is not actively forcing the issues.  Both are in sub-par leases, with the A’s having the extra hurdle of San Jose being part of San Francisco’s theoretical territorial rights, thus blocking them further.  MLB Central could step in and make a one-time cash payment to the Giants if they really and truly wanted the A’s in a better market, but they haven’t and won’t.

Which brings us back to the Pirates.  Back in 1998 when Plan B was being ramrodded through, I was a 22-year old fresh out of college with disposable income and no responsibilities.  Sports were my life.  Today, I realize the financial implications of what sports franchises do and don’t mean for a city.  I see how much revenue is brought in and how unfair it is to ask struggling cities and already-burdened taxpayers to help shoulder the load to create a new billionaire’s playground.

Sports are one of modern times’ greatest scams on the taxpayers.

Back then in 1998, sports were a business, but the influx of huge TV deals did not yet cause all major sports to become mega-businesses.  Case in point — Kevin McClatchy bought the Pirates for $92M in 1996.  Today, Forbes has estimated that the Pirates are worth $975M.  I know there’s inflation, but not 10-fold in 20 years.

There’s too much money at stake for MLB to just allow teams to willy-nilly relocate.  There has to be a valid reason and all avenues have to be explored within the existing market before MLB will allow a billion dollar asset to up and move.  So when teams threaten to move, it’s humorous to see all the handwringing by fanbases and hoop jumping by politicians.  MLB is also not going to move one of the iconic, historical franchises in the form of Pittsburgh, either.  Not until every potential ownership ground in the tri-state region is asked a couple of times to buy them.

I take my kids to PNC Park now and I hope to take my grandkids to PNC Park in the future.  And I hope my kids take their grandkids to the iconic jewel along the Allegheny River, as well.  PNC Park is only 15 years old, but in some cities it’s nearing the end of service life.  I hope our society isn’t as disposable as it seems.  PNC Park will be the future’s Wrigley and Fenway, timeless stadiums that everyone flocks to visit.  At least it should be with proper upkeep and solid stewardship.

Francisco Cervelli will be framing pitches and causing females to swoon for three more years in Pittsburgh.
Photo by Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

During lunchtime on Tuesday, the Pittsburgh Pirates announced that catcher Francisco Cervelli was signed to a 3 yr/$31M extension.  This was a move that we both forecast and advocated.  With this signing, the entire set of eight starting position players are now under team control for 2017.  Here’s the prices for each of them:

• C Francisco Cervelli — $9M
• 1B John Jaso — $4M
• 2B Josh Harrison — $7.75M
• SS Jordy Mercer — $3.5M (arb. estimate)
• 3B Jung-ho Kang — $2.75M
• LF Starling Marte — $5.33M
• CF Andrew McCutchen — $14.2M
• RF Gregory Polanco — $1.6M
• TOTAL — $48.13M

Prior to this extension, I was under the impression that the Pirates current contention window was going to start to close after the 2017 season.  After 2017, Francisco Liriano would be a free agent, Francisco Cervelli would have already been gone for a year, and the Pirates would be making the decision on whether or not to trade Andrew McCutchen prior to his final team option year of 2018.

One signing shouldn’t alter my thinking on things, but this signing is pointing me to two thoughts:

• The Pirates seem serious about fielding a strong contender in 2017
• The window may be pried open to 2018 while they retain McCutchen on his team option

With the imminent arrival of Tyler Glasnow and Jameson Taillon this season, the 2017 rotation is shaping up to be both potentially potent and economical.

• Gerrit Cole — $6.25M (arb. estimate)
• Francisco Liriano — $13.67M
• Tyler Glasnow — $0.5M
• Jameson Taillon — $0.5M
• TOTAL — $20.92M

If you add up the starting eight plus the top four pitchers, as shown above, you get $69.05M.  Assuming a $110M payroll, that leaves $41M of payroll flexibility to fill out the bench, bullpen, and fifth starter.  And when you factor in that some of those 13 remaining spots could be filled by players on minimum salaries (Josh Bell, Alen Hanson) or small salaries like Chris Stewart’s $1.4M, that leaves even more money to invest on key areas.  Some of the monies will potentially be allocated to arb-eligible players like Tony Watson, Juan Nicasio, and Jared Hughes, but there could still be a couple of mid-size splurges.

The free agent market this offseason is shaping up to be a desolate wasteland of available talent, but perhaps the Pirates may go the trade route with teams either looking to shed salaries or in the midst of rebuilding efforts.

With Cervelli’s signing in the books, the Pirates can now potentially control all the players shown above in 2018, with the exception of Francisco Liriano.  I still don’t believe the Pirates will be able or willing to retain McCutchen whenever he reaches free agency after 2018, but this move at least plants the tiniest of seeds that it is possible.  Very tiny.  I’m still being realistic to the financial aspects of such a long-term move and still believe that the window can be extended even further if McCutchen is traded for the right mix of both short and long-term assets.

But now the Pirates have locked up a catcher at below-market rates that should at least retain league-average offense and plus defensive chops, especially in the all-important pitch framing category.  Having a catcher that’s not a zero offensively at the plate is a huge bonus and helps lengthen the lineup, especially when that catcher can get on-base with the frequency that Cervelli possesses.

The Pirates only make a signing when it works for them in terms of years and cash outlay.  The years are why players like Russell Martin and JA Happ are now plying their trades north of the border.  Cervelli wanted to stay here and the Pirates agreed they wanted him here for the correct financial terms.

How the Pirates will build off of this move in the offseason, quite a ways from now of course, is what will reveal their belief in the team moving forward.  This move is a good sign.

I included the Grizzlies after watching The Revenant last night

Ironically, as I write this I’m preparing to go to a AAA game.  No, it isn’t the Indianapolis Indians, as I’ll actually be watching the Charlotte Knights take on the Durham Bulls.

As I skim through the rosters for both teams I recognize some names.  Blake Snell of the Bulls and Tim Anderson and Matt Davidson of the Knights are very good prospects, but I’m also seeing Chris Volstad, Travis Ishikawa and Jaff Decker.

As Alabama said in there 1994 song, “Our ball club is minor league but at least it’s AAA”:

While there is some good talent for both teams, there are only maybe 2-3 legit prospects for both the Bulls (Rays) and the Knights (White Sox).  This is nothing like the Pirates AAA squad at Indy.    I’ve mentioned subtly in my articles this year, but my boss KC (I guess we’re the Sunshine Band?) told me to try my best to inform the TPOP readership of how good the Pirates AAA squad currently stands.  Well here goes:

First, coming up with comps that TPOP and Pirate fans will know is a little tricky.   Also, HT to the rest of the Sunshine Band for helping me tighten up this list.  I organized the list so that it could read like a starting lineup, partial rotation and partial bullpen.  It’s just coincidence that our eight could be put into a lineup… and a credit due to the position flexibility of the players.

The Pseudo Prospects:

Gift Ngoepe can’t hit RH pitchers worth a darn, but his glove is amazing, he hits LHP well and he has good pop and speed for a SS.

Dan Gamache hits LH, can play all infield positions and has a good amount of patience at the plate.   He might not quite hit enough, but he could reach that Rob Mackowiak ceiling.

Boy is Willy Garcia huge but he can still stay play a decent CF and has a cannon for an arm.   Also, he has great splits against LHP and should be able to one arm homers the opposite way at PNC.   His ceiling of Jose Guillen is a pipe dream and his most likely of Craig Wilson is totally an offensive comparison.

The C+ Prospects:

Adam Frazier’s position flexibility is what will get him called up; that and his ability to avoid striking out (lifetime K% of 11.5%).  Frazier also has the “correct” platoon split, as he hits better against RHP than LHP ( .331/.390/.424 in 331 ABs against RHP last year).   Cross your fingers and hope for Ben Zobrist or Mark Ellis.

My son’s name is Max Anthony and he’s a wildcard.  Max Anthony Moroff is a wild card as well.  Moroff has one less elite minor league season than Frazier, but he’s two years younger at the same level.  He looks like a good fit at 2B where I watched him display plus range in Altoona last year.  He’s scuffling a little at AAA this year but he’s not needed for a while.  By June of ’17 he could be called up to infuse some life into the offense like….

…Alen Hanson is doing as we speak.   Hanson is heading to Pittsburgh to fill in for Starling Marte while he’s on paternity leave.  Hanson has been on prospect folks’ radar for a long time.   He’s a guy that can fill up the stat sheet with 2B, 3B, HR’s and SBs   Hanson is still young and could be our 2B for a long time once he gets the opportunity.

One of the big missing players this season has been Elias Diaz.  Diaz, the cannon-armed cat of a catcher, needed arthroscopic surgery to clean up his elbow and has been on the DL.  Diaz will not hit like Mike Piazza in the show but as long as he hits like Michael Lavalliere that will be fine.  Diaz also has a strong platoon split, as he crushes LHP, which might be convenient as he will probably backup initially.

The Bullpen(?) Triumvirate 

Chad Kuhl might end up as a back end starter with his good two pitch mix and Steven Brault might use his cutter to go 5-6 innings in the show.   Trevor Williams is still the new guy with not many innings due to some minor injuries and he could be a starter for the Bucs as well.  My money, and most other people’s, is that they’ll all be relievers; but they’ll be really good relievers.  Look at the stability Melancon, Watson and Hughes have brought to the bullpen the last few years.  The three guys in AAA could do the same thing for 6+ years and for cheap.

The Hopeful Cornerstones

Can Josh Bell replicate the smooth swing of Will Clark?

I love the Will Clark comp for Josh Bell (H/T Steve DiMiceli) as Bell’s at-bats harken back to Clark.   Bell battles at the plate and doesn’t give the pitchers anything.  He also stings the balls and rarely K’s.  He could be a batting champion and his makeup is incredible.  The sky is the limit.

We can’t say much more about Glasnow and Taillon that hasn’t been said.   Taillon was a big investment that hasn’t been utilized yet, but looks solid and Glasnow looks likes a lottery ticket that may hit.  We’re lucky to have these two gems and hope they can lock down rotation spots for a while.

Final thought

Realize all these players will receive the league minimum salary for three years (plus the first half season if past Super Two), then have cheap arbitration salaries for a couple more.  This gives our team tremendous flexibility with its 25 man roster.

Back in the dark ages of 1997 the Pirates had a whole payroll of $9,071,667 but the team was terrible.  In a couple years a large portion of the team could be making the league minimum and yet be really good.  That’s what a stellar minor league system can do for you.