Reese McGuire’s bat is what is holding him back at the moment.
Photo via 93.7 The Fan/Jeff Hathhorn

The rankings get interesting from 11-20, both in terms of the solid players hanging out in this range and the bit of controversial placement of a couple of former first round picks. If you’re here to have your opinion of some players validated, you might want to jump right to the comment section.

Once again, our participating writers. I promise you’ll hear a lot more from Kurt today.

Kevin Creagh (KC) – TPOP

Michael Bradley (MB) – TPOP

Kurt Hackimer (KH) – winitforus.com and soon-to-be TPOP writer

Steve DiMiceli (SD) – TPOP

20. Adam Frazier (SS/2B/OF, 24)

KC – Potential new Swiss Army knife for Pirates, as he dabbled in CF last year.

SD – Frazier makes good contact and sprays the ball. Not sexy but he could be the future on middle infielders in the age of the shift.

19. Willy Garcia (OF, 23)

KH – Garcia is a classic right fielder with impressive raw power and arm strength. In 2015, the Altoona Curve’s coaching staff worked with him to shorten his swing in an effort to cut down on strikeouts. It took him a while to get the hang of it, but Garcia eventually cut his K rate, raised his average, and earned a promotion to Indianapolis.

SD – Some of the best game power in the system even if his K rate could keep him from the show. Four Legit tools though.

18. Steven Brault (LHP, 24)

KC – Second lefty pitcher obtained in Travis Snider deal last year, has exceeded my expectations.  Could be spot starter in 2016 as he will be at AAA.

MB – I always like LHP’s since they can often become a LOOGY as their floor.  I didn’t see Brault throw but a friend raved about his cutter.  His results and pedigree give him a shot at a ML rotation.

KH – It was a shrewd move when Neal Huntington traded Brad Lincoln for Travis Snider and an even shrewder move when he flipped Snider for lefties Steven Brault and Stephen Tarpley. Brault used his two­ seamer and sharp biting cutter to make up for middling velocity. If he’s able to improve his changeup and add a reliable breaking pitch, Brault could be knocking on the Pirates’ door in 2017 or sooner.

SD – Similar numbers to Tony Watson only two years younger. Do you really want to rush a guy who eats 155 minor league innings to the pen?

17. Yeudy Garcia (RHP, 23)

KH – Garcia burst onto the scene last season when he struck out 112 batters in 30 games with the West Virginia Power. The 23­-year old Dominican is a little old for Single A and often lacks command of his secondary pitches, but has a lively fastball that one can dream upon.

SD – Seemingly out of nowhere 2015 breakout. Another year like 2015 and he could be in the top 10, especially if he closes it in Altoona.

KC – Pop up pitching prospect in 2015 needs to prove himself in 2016 as an older 23 in High A.

MB – Garcia dominated the hitters in Low A enough that BA raved about him in their Top 20 rankings. He’s old enough to get a brief stay in A+ and then hit Altoona by midseason.

16. Cole Tucker (SS, 19)

KC – His shoulder surgery casts a shadow on his ability to play SS long term. If he can’t, his bat may not play at another position.

SD – Was climbing my prospect list rapidly until he blew out his shoulder.

KH – The Pirates first round pick in 2014 will miss most, if not all, of 2016 recovering from the shoulder surgery he underwent last August. Tucker has plenty of speed and range, which makes him an intriguing option at shortstop, but concerns about arm strength are likely to be magnified now that he’s underwent surgery on his throwing arm.

MB – Did you happen to see some of the video of Tucker from this winter?  He looks amazing.  His body is starting to fill out and I love his swing from both sides. He’s still so young and green but his ceiling is Cal Ripken.

15. Stephen Tarpley (LHP, 23)

KH – Tarpley, compared to Brault, is much more of a boom-or­-bust type of pitcher. His fastball has real life, sitting at around 94 MPH and touching 97 MPH. Pirates’ coaches lowered Tarpley’s arm slot and his control greatly improved because of the adjustment. Tarpley will move up to Bradenton in 2016 and may reach Altoona before year’s end.

SD – He could be a rapid climber with a repeat of 2015. I’d be even more impressed if he does it in Altoona in August.

MB – The only thing holding the LHP back from ranking higher is his age.  Tarpley will be 23 in high A so a quick promotion to Altoona could be in order.  He showed both the potential to miss bats and to induce ground balls maybe he’s our next Tony Watson.

KC – Lefty pitcher from Snider deal, more upside than Brault, but comes with makeup questions. Like Y. Garcia, needs to advance quicker this year as an overage 23 in High A.

14. Chad Kuhl (RHP, 23)

SD –  A guy with Kuhl’s arm and numbers would have been in the 2006 Pirates’ top 5 prospects. Sad but true. Kuhl should throw less strikes to generate more swings and misses. His control is almost hurting him.

MB – Close to the majors, great control, ready to contribute now.

KH – In any other system, Kuhl might be an afterthought. He’s a sinkerballer who doesn’t strike many people out and thrives only in quick counts. But in the Pirates system, which is predicated largely upon pitching to contact, Kuhl could thrive. He’ll start this year in Indianapolis and could be a dark horse candidate to pitch in Pittsburgh this season.

KC – Quietly working way into Pirates’ pitching plans with a power sinker. Could be a #4 with better secondary pitches.

13. Mitch Keller (RHP, 20)

MB – I’m buying the hype, as he’s done very little since he was drafted.   Hopefully things start becoming more obvious in full season.

KC – Second round pick in 2014 here on pedigree as his 2015 was started late, at a lower level than expected, with poor results.

SD – Keller wouldn’t be the first Pirates high school pitching bonus baby to rebound after rough short short season. Of course, he wouldn’t be the first not to.

KH – When Keller was drafted out of Iowa’s Xavier High School in 2014, his fastball sat in the mid­ to upper­ 80’s. Now Keller’s heater regularly touches 94 MPH and features real movement. Unfortunately for Keller, he’s recently experienced the dreaded “forearm tightness” which often foreshadows an operation.

12. Reese McGuire (C, 21)

SD – There isn’t a long list of players who OPS under .600 in A+ who have long fruitful careers in the majors. He did hit better in a small AFL sample, so what the hell do I know?

KC – His defense could be all-world, but not being able to put up an OPS of 600 means the bat may never play in the Majors.

MB – His glove will get him to the majors and his good approach from the left side could allow him to be a 2 or 7 hole hitter instead of having a Chris Stewart bat.  He’s also just one level below Elias Diaz and 5 years younger.

KH – The good: At just 21 years old, McGuire could hold his own defensively in the majors. That’s remarkable for a guy as young as he is. The bad: He can’t hit. Becoming a catcher requires a specialized knowledge of the game, so they tend to develop more slowly than other players. As it stands, the Bucs love his glove and hope that the bat comes around with time.

11. Max Moroff (2B, 23)

KC – Had a breakout year and is positioning himself behind Hanson on the depth chart for 2B. Will play at AAA in 2016 and be a call away.

SD – Could easily pass Hanson if he takes another step forward or maintains his numbers in AAA. The BABIP was a little high but good glove and improving contact numbers help.

KH – Pittsburgh’s consolation prize for the Mark Appel whiff, Moroff was aggressively promoted to Altoona last season despite two mediocre Single A seasons. He rewarded them by slashing a respectable .293/.374/.409. Moroff still is a long shot to make the majors, but not if he continues to hit like he did in Altoona last season.

MB -Max’s slick fielding at 2nd was almost as pretty as his all fields approach to hitting.   He was fun to watch at AA and should be at least a nice utility IF in the show.

Join us late? Here are are the links to the rest of the rankings!

#21 – 30

#31 – 40

Tomorrow — Top 10!

Continuing with our trade value rankings of the Pirates organization, today we’ll look at #20 to #14.   You can read the primer and #25-21 to catch up.

Today’s rankings start to include more prospects.  My prospect evaluation has many resources, but normally includes reading Keith Law from ESPN, Bed Badler and JJ Cooper from Baseball America,  John Sickels (who has been doing prospects so long that he owns the URL minorleagueball.com) and finally whichever Fangraphs prospect writer hasn’t been hired by a MLB front office.   Then I scout prospects myself in Altoona as I live close to the ballpark….plus my normal number crunching.

On to the rankings:

20.  Reese McGuire (21, A+/AA)

6.5 years of control     Trade Value Score – 77.4

The Pirates started a notable trend a couple drafts ago where they draft the youngest players in high school/juco/college that are draftable.  The 2013 draft was the bellwether when they drafted Reese McGuire and Austin Meadows in the first round who were barely 18 and Blake Taylor in the second round who was 17 at draft time.

So when talking about McGuire you need to factor in his youth.   He’s consistently been in the top 10 youngest players in whatever league he plays in and has been able to battle through that obstacle.  The one thing that isn’t youthful about his game is his total defensive package.  He calls, blocks and throws like a seasoned major league catcher.

On the offensive side he has two things going for him: he has a good eye and he has good bat-to-ball skills.  He might not ever hit for any power, but his floor offensively might be a left-handed Chris Stewart which isn’t terrible.  In a very small sample size McGuire hit .294/.379/.412 in the Arizona Fall League, which should have been the best competition he has seen.

McGuire will battle Elias Diaz for “catcher of the future” and it will be a fun to have multiple options.

19.  Harold Ramirez (21, AA)

6.5 years of control     Trade Value Score – 77.4

Harold Ramirez has been on scouts’s radars since the Pirates signed him out of Colombia in 2011, but when Keith Law scouted him last July Ramirez was acknowledged by other national prospect nerds.  Ramirez has suffered through a lot of hamstring issues and hearing Law talk about how he maximizes his lower half might have something to do with it.

Ramirez is a luxury item for the outfield talented Pirates.  He’s a gifted defender and has a great hit tool which should get him to the bigs.  He probably doesn’t have the best arm for center field, but the Pirates current ML outfield setup might show that they’d rather have the cannons in the corners.  The comp I see when I look at Ramirez is Melky Cabrera with his strong hit tool, some power and small frame.

Since Ramirez is playing in Altoona this year I’ll try to talk to him at some point.  The two questions I will ask him is 1) do you feel that your small strike zone is an advantage to you? and 2) have you watched Narcos?

18.  Kevin Newman (22, A)

6.5 years of control      Trade Value Score – 77.4

When the Steelers were building a dynasty back in the 90’s they were religious about drafting the best player available.  The Pirates definitely used that philosophy with the Kevin Newman pick in the 2015 draft.

Kevin Newman made his prospect name by being a consistent performer and winning the Cape Cod league batting title twice (which had never been done before).   The Cape Cod league is a nice litmus test for hitters as they are in a minor league like environment and they use wood bats.

Coming into the draft the aforementioned Keith Law drew some criticism when he said that Newman was the 2nd best prospect in the whole draft; a thought that was shared by few.  He thinks Newman could have a quick path to the majors with his glove at shortstop and his all fields approach with the bat.

Newman also continues with the high character type picks that the Pirates seem to emphasize more than other system.  The story that Newman tells Greg Brown about when he was watching the ML draft with his parents shows how he might have those intangibles that will benefit the Pirates going forward.

17.  Jordy Mercer (29, MLB)

Three years of arbitration ($2.075M in arb-1 year of 2016)    Trade Value Score – 80.0

Jordy channeling El Toro – courtesy of @27imokemp

Jordy Mercer is one of my favorite Pirates so I won’t even try to sugarcoat that.  Guys that are great teammates and work hard to overcome lack of physical tools will always have a special place in my heart.

When Jordy was coming through the organization I thought there was zero chance of him being an everyday shortstop, but with tons of reps and a lot of learning (something he credits Clint Barmes with) Mercer has become a plus glove shortstop.

Mercer also crushes LH pitching to the tune of .324/.374/.490 in 320 plate appearances.  This platoon advantage and glove make him a given on any major league team.  Mercer also has some nice pop in his bat which he’s shown a little the last three years.

As far as trade value, Mercer is never going to break the bank in arbitration so he’ll be a value the next three years.  I wouldn’t be surprised if the Pirates signed him to a Chris Stewart-style extension and keep him around for two or three extra years.

I also would love to see him bulk up his 6’3″ frame and man a corner in his last few years.  I could see 20+ home runs in that bat.

16.  Francisco Cervelli (30, MLB)

Final year of arbitration control ($3.5M in arb-3 year of 2016)      Trade Value Score – 80.0

Ask yinzer nation about Cervelli and they’ll just say “he’s awesome” but let’s quantify awesome.  He’s debatedly the best pitch framer in the majors, especially now that Jose Molina can’t find a job.   Cervelli calls a great game too and has a great rapport with pitchers, which is impossible to put a statistic on.

How about Cervelli offensively?  He’s pretty much exactly what you’d want as a ML starter: walks around 10% of the time, K’s less than 20% of the time, BA around .290, 10-15 homers and probably more outside PNC.  He’s really the perfect catcher and at $3.5M he’s a steal.

When Cervelli is suggesting a 3/$39M extension you know the Pirates have severe leverage.   No chance they trade him prior to Opening Day, but if they would he’d return a bundle.

15.  Francisco Liriano (32, MLB)

Two years remaining on contract at 2 yr/$27.33M   Trade Value Score – 80.0

One might think I’m talking out of two sides of my mouth when I’m saying that two years of Francisco Liriano are really valuable and also say that the Pirates should dumpster dive for free agent starting pitchers.  I’ll explain more in an article someday but to summarize, #1 and #2 starters are now the most valuable property in baseball and are distancing themselves from even the shortstops in value.

Since “Frankie” is now a true #2 starter, he’s incredibly valuable at $13.67M a year.   You could argue he might command $25-30M on a one year deal in this crazy market we’re seeing and if I was the Pirates I’d at least think about extending him now while they’ll have a little leverage (4/$60M?) or they can plan on a draft pick after 2017 if all goes well.

On Liriano the ballplayer it’s probably obvious to even the most casual fan how good Liriano’s slider has become.  It’s been written about by every baseball thinktank from MLB.com to Beyond the Boxscore to our friends at Fangraphs … and more.

He’s really talented and really affordable making him a very valuable asset.

14.  Josh Bell (23, AAA)

6.5 years of control   Trade Value Score – 82.8

The richest second round draft pick ever, Josh Bell, has taken a lot longer to reach the show than his college pitcher draft mate Gerrit Cole, but he’s about to come onto the scene this year.  Bell, who has been covered a lot since he was drafted, has become one of the better hitters in the minors and whose bat has carried him to the brink of the majors.

Bell has a great approach at the plate and hits the ball incredibly hard.  I’ve watched Polanco, Marte, Allie, etc. all play at Altoona and it’s no question that Bell has the highest exit velocity of all of them, I just don’t have the Trackman data to prove it.  The problem with Bell currently is that he doesn’t get enough loft on the balls and many of his screamers just go for singles and doubles; hopefully the Pirates coaching staff can fix that.

Bell could also be a real asset to the Pirates if he could come up midseason 2016 and start at 1B full time.  This would give the Pirates 6.5 years of a everyday 1B in the long term and in the short term would make the Pirates bench pretty stout with Jaso and Morse… not to mention pseudo-1B Sean Rodriguez.

You could argue that Bell’s potential and 6.5 years of cheap control would rank him higher on the list, but his questionable defensive position, the pitching premium and the Pirates’ stacked system have him ranking lower than one would guess.

Tyler Glasnow represents the 3rd wave of prospects under Huntington’s watch to help Pittsburgh win
Photo by Cliff Welch

The Pirates have had notable success over the last three seasons, averaging 93 wins, and even contended the two seasons prior to that before succumbing to epic collapses late in the season. Unfortunatly, the players that built towards that success are fading out quickly.  Russell Martin departed via free agency prior to 2015 and AJ Burnett, who was in Philly in 2014, has retired. Neil Walker and Charlie Morton have already been traded and Pedro Alvarez was cut loose as a non-tender. A handful of others have come and gone at the trade deadline. All of these players provided contributions to winning baseball in Pittsburgh for the first time in 20 years. None of the above will be in Pirate uniforms in 2016.

It’s very possible that the Pirates will go through a transitional year in in 2016. What I mean when I say “transitional year” is that they might take a step back in the winning department, but it might also lead to bigger things down the road. This is different than a rebuild. Of course, coming off a 98 win season stepping back was pretty likely anyway. The group of players signed and drafted under the previous regime and developed by the current front office are gone as noted above or nearing the end of their Pirates control. Only Starling Marte has more than three seasons remaining. Even some Neal Huntington draft picks like Jordy Mercer have entered arbitration, while plenty of trade acquisitions and free agent contributors have come and gone. In short, the first wave of prospects moving through the system are veterans now (arrived between 2009-11) and starting to leave, and the second group that supplemented the first wave, like Gerrit Cole and Gregory Polanco, have established themselves (arrived between 2012-14). Thanks to a myriad of injuries to the top pitching prospects, no one arrived in 2015, but starting this season the third wave could begin replacing the first.

Like any prospects, not all of these players will make it in the major leagues. Some will fail to reach their full potential. Some will fall well short and bust entirely.  However, if one or two can reach their ceiling, it could help the Pirates extend their winning ways well after the first group departs, including Andrew McCutchen.

Right now, the Pirates are accumulating a ton of prospects at the AAA and AA levels. They have a number of high-ceiling prospects and more depth that could supplement the top prospects than they did in 2009. Many of these prospects would have been called up earlier then than they would now. Fortunately, there’s more talent in the majors now and this group can spend more time in the minors for development. Thanks to the extra time, they should be more major league ready by the time they’re actually given the call, but they will still need to adjust.

The first to arrive could be Alen Hanson. It’s not out of the question that he’ll be the Pirates’ opening day second baseman now that Walker’s been traded and Jung-ho Kang mends his busted knee and leg. I have doubts about the true ceiling of his bat in the majors, but I do think he can serve as a solid, defense-first second baseman who fits the system better than his predecessor.  His defense could provide a huge boost to the ground ball oriented pitching staff by scooping ground balls Walker didn’t have the range to haul in. While the Pirates might sacrifice some runs produced using Hansen at second to start the season, he could save some runs with his glove. When everyone’s healthy, he can go back to the minors and hopefully, improve his bat.

Several others could arrive by midseason. Josh Bell looks primed to take over the first base role that’s been a black hole for the Pirates since… I seriously don’t know when. I didn’t live in Pittsburgh the last time they got solid production there and I’ve been here for fifteen years. Bell still has some defensive kinks to work out, but he has huge offensive upside especially if you can add a little bit of power to the plus-rated contact skills. Of all the prospects, he feels the safest for me and could be their next middle of the order anchor.

The rotation as it was composed with Jon Niese and without Charlie Morton needed another warm body in it. Ryan Vogelsong probably wasn’t the first name on anyone’s mind, but the path to the majors for Tyler Glasnow and Jameson Taillon looks a lot clearer. Both have top of the rotation stuff, and it’s unlikely that the Pirates will sign anyone of that caliber in free agency. Their ceiling exceeds that of Scott Kazmir, a popular name appearing on the Pirates fan’s 2016 wish lists. Both could help at the major league level this season and getting them experience is important. While I’m not a big believer in their competitive window truly closing, Glasnow and Taillon could push the Pirates over the top while the last of the first wave are still contributing and keep it open past their departure. Starting pitching looks ugly now, will likely take a step back overall in 2016, but could allow for the Pirates to close 2016 with more upside than they did in 2015. It could also lead to a bizarre scenario where two mid-season call ups push Niese to a playoff bullpen for the second year in a row. In my opinion, this highlights that transition doesn’t always have to be a four letter word. It could make the Pirates better now, but they’ll need to endure April – June.

Looking past 2016, Austin Meadows could arrive in Indianapolis by July or August. While he has a long way to go to reach his Jay Bruce comparisons, he should be knocking at the door by 2017, even if he won’t likely be needed until 2018. Simply put, he’ll be working out any issues he still might have in the minors, rather than in the starting lineup with his service time accruing.

Beyond the elite core the Pirates have, there is depth well beyond what they had when Andrew McCutchen arrived in 2009. Players like Max Moroff and Adam Frazier simply didn’t exist the first time around and get overlooked. Both provide excellent line drive strokes with solid contact and excellent defense in the middle of the infield, while providing Alen Hanson insurance if he flops.  They’ve also got a couple of catching options in Elias Diaz and Reese McGuire.

There is considerable pitching depth as well. Some might turn into fringy 4th or 5th starters in the major league rotation. Chad Kuhl has quietly shown solid control paired with an excellent ground ball rate in AA this past season. He’s a very strong dark horse to replace a pitcher at the back end of the rotation. Others, like what Tony Watson did, may transition from starter to bullpen.  Nick Kingham is the first one that jumps off the list, as he was a former top 100 player, but will be recovering from Tommy John surgery this season. He could still start but he could easily find a home in the back end of the rotation allowing him to progress a little faster and take some stress off his brand spanking new elbow.  Pitchers like Zack Dodson and Jason Creasy probably don’t have a future in the rotation, but they could be converted to relief in Indianapolis. John Holdzkom, who looked like a stud in 2014 before hitting the shelf for much of 2015, could also be a factor. If he recovers, he can very easily become a stalwart late in the game.

The transition will likely result in fewer wins in 2016, but it’s unlikely that 98 wins would have been matched even without any change at the major league level. That’s a hard feat to duplicate two years in a row with the same team. It’s also unlikely that it’ll take 99 to win the division again or 97 to make the wild card game. I expect some fall off next season, but it’s not out of the question that the Pirates can stay competitive while they build towards the future.  If they can’t close on the pennant next season, it might lead to some frustration, but it should set help set the table for continued winning well beyond the first perceived window.

Austin Meadows didn’t have the breakthrough season you may have hoped for, but he’s still the Pirates’ top OF prospect
Photo by Cliff Welch/MiLB.com

On Monday, I broke down the Pirates’ infield prospects. Today, I’ll look at catcher and outfield. Strange bedfellows in terms of position groupings, but bedfellows out of convenience.

I’ll do this a little differently than the last one in the sense that I will separate the catchers from the outfielders, but I will mix all potential outfielders in together. The Pirates don’t seem to care who fits where, as long as they fit. Their current outfield has three center fielders and no one asks any questions. On top of that, they have a number of center field capable players in the corners currently in the minors. Players will jostle around, leaving me with little reason to break them down now.

CATCHER

1. Elias Diaz (.271/.330/.382, 712 OPS at AAA)

Diaz broke out in 2014 and while the numbers haven’t looked as sexy in 2015, he’s showing enough bat to complement his International League-best defense. Diaz may not profile as an obvious choice to carry the load in the majors, but he profiles as a solid backup capable to playing 2-3 times a week.

2. Reese McGuire (.254/.301/.294, 595 OPS at High A)

McGuire has his many defenders and, certainly, there will be some questioning my placing him second behind Diaz. However, it’s a question of proximity for me. Diaz has already been called up to the majors and his offensive tools are playing at a higher level, and at a higher level in the system.

McGuire has youth on his side and while his defense is said to be advanced, he will need to hit some to stick in the majors. His power tool is almost non-existent, while his overall hit tool is generally overrated. Sure, he puts the ball in play a lot minimizing the strikeouts. That’s a very good thing, but he doesn’t walk much and the balls he puts in play don’t find grass. That could be a function of same bad luck as his BABIP has fallen short of  .285 each of the last two seasons, but it might also suggest the balls he puts in play aren’t a threat.

Again, McGuire is extremely young for his level, but the bat’s not even playing with his peers at this point. He has time to improve, but it’s difficult to get excited about the early returns. That said, he wouldn’t be the first prospect to break out in AA if he reaches that level next year, as he seems destined to repeat High A.

3. Jin-de Jhang (.292/.332/.381, 713 OPS at High A)

I considered a few players here, but I landed on Jhang who might have the highest ceiling at the plate of any catcher in the system and therefore the highest upside of all. He puts the ball in play like McGuire, but he manages to hit for average and has shown power in spurts.

OUTFIELD

With Polanco’s July uptick at the plate and his continued improvements in August, the Pirates’ outfield is beginning to look more and more like the potential toolsy pasture many dreamed on for the past couple of years. Problem is, there’s no where else to graze and a number of players still looking capable of playing there. Some of these players below will become trade bait if the current arrangement holds up. Others might be insurance if future contract talks break down.

1. Austin Meadows (.310/.360/.420, 780 OPS across two levels at High A/AA)

Meadows’ 2015 numbers aren’t sexy, but one should not overlook what he did in 2014 when he hit well at an extremely young age for the SAL. He performed relatively well in the FSL in what appears to be a down year for the league and he continued his 2015 form in the Eastern League during a short six game call-up. However, this isn’t the big step you’d have liked to see him take.

With the Pirates’ outfield looking crowded, I’d love to see the Pirates give him a shot at third base in 2016. If nothing else it will give him position flexibility and a chance to contribute in the majors for the Pirates sooner.

2. Harold Ramirez (.337/.399/.458, 857 OPS at High A)

Meadows and Ramirez are considerably closer in value for me than many people might consider. He’s having a lights out season that included a standout performance against stronger competition in the Pan-American games. I kept waiting for his FSL numbers to come down to earth and they didn’t. A 20-year old with an .850 OPS in High A have a high success rate.  Ramirez’s concern is his inability to stay healthy — just 49 games in 2014 and 80 games in 2015.

3. Willy Garcia (.275/.314/.431, 745 OPS across two levels at AA/AAA)

Garcia’s always been a toolsy player for Pirates fans to dream on, but his crazy strikeout rate caused us to temper expectations. It was still high in 2015, but it’s manageable. He hit for high average early in Altoona, but no power. The power slowly returned after an adjustment period in Indy, showing an all around game we’ve seen little of in the past.

4. Michael Suchy (.275/.362/.441, 803 OPS at Low A)

Suchy, like his 2014 draft mate Jordan Luplow, is quietly rising through the Pirates’ prospects ranks. In a system generally lacking power, Suchy’s at least got some. He’s a little old for the SAL and is the first player that I’ve mentioned that can’t at least play center in a pinch.

5. Keon Broxton (.273/.357/.438, 795 across two levels at AA/AAA)

I didn’t give much thought to Broxton last season, but his modest power, his speed and his base running skills are enticing. The problem is he strikes out way too often to lead off and he’s a probable loss in the Rule 5 draft.

6. Elvis Escobar (.296/.326/.407, 733 OPS at Low A)

He’s been living in Harold Ramirez’s shadow since the day he signed. Now a level down from the guy who signed on the same day as him, Escobar’s flashing the potential he showed when he signed for a six figure bonus. He’s hitting for better average, getting on base and showing a little more pop.

7. Tito Polo (.236/.313/.328, 641 OPS at Low A)

Aside from having a fun name, Polo’s got some tools that he’s flashed at times. He had a nice start to his career stateside in the GCL, but struggled in his sophomore season.

8. Jerrick Suiter (.299/.382/.394, 776 OPS at Low A)

Suiter’s was something of a surprise for the West Virginia Power by hitting for average and OPS’ing well. He’s yet another player drafted in the last few years that puts a lot of balls in play.

9. Casey Hughston (.224/.267/.311, 578 OPS at Short-Season)

Pickings are getting slim, but I’ll trust that the Pirates see more in Hughston than the bat that struggled mightily in his first months in pro ball after being given the overslot bonus he received.

#THIS. Frame it. https://t.co/DGoeoh63eh

— MLB (@MLB) April 12, 2015

Much has been written about Tony Sanchez, the Pirates 1st round pick in 2009 draft.  His roller coaster ride contains his “overdraft”, his Low A and High A dominance, his broken jaw, re-ascending prospect status, the Twitter celebrity-dom, being passed by Elias Diaz and Reese McGuire as the catcher in waiting, his feel good spring of this year, etc.

While it has been ups and downs for Sanchez, the ride of a catcher can last much longer than other positions.  Good major league teams need a lot of catching depth and Tony Sanchez has a ceiling of a solid defensive catcher that has some pop in his bat.  He also will be cheap for a long time, two of the three catchers in front of him (Cervelli and Stewart) are only under contract for 2016 and Elias Diaz and Reese McGuire aren’t hitting the cover off the ball.  Sanchez still could have value for the Pirates.

Sanchez had a great spring this year and so when Chris Stewart injured his hamstring in Spring Training, Sanchez took the open spot on the Opening Day roster.   When Stewart was healthy and rehabbed on April 17th he was recalled; Sanchez sent down to AAA.   That means Sanchez accrued another 11 days of ML service time.  Before the season Sanchez had accrued 0.142 ML service time.  0.142 means 0 full years and 142 days.  Add in the 11 days in April and Sanchez is at 0.153.

What this means for Sanchez is that he is sitting 19 days short of completing the 172 days for one service year.  For those of you not familiar with ML service time, our friends at Fangraphs explain it nicely here:  ML Service Time

Sanchez also is “out of options” after this year meaning he no longer can remain on the 40 man roster and be in AAA.   He’d either need to be on the major league roster or be designated for assignment.  I think it’s pretty obvious based on his talent, his position and how cheap he is that the Pirates don’t want to DFA him.    I think he’s actually being counted on to provide a starting option or a solid backup for the 2016-2021 seasons.

So would Huntington bring Sanchez up on September 1st and “burn” a year of control or will Sanchez not be brought up to keep him below the threshhold?

I bet Huntington waits until the middle of September and brings up Elias Diaz to have the extra catcher and keep a year of eligibility for Sanchez.  People will assume this is because Sanchez will be traded or designated after the season, but I don’t think it’s the case.   I think it will be due to the service time.

I also think Huntington will figure out a way roster Sanchez in 2016 so as to not lose this depth he’d love to have for the next few years.  Huntington got burned on lack of catching depth in 2011 and it won’t happen again.  My thought on the future of catching in Pittsburgh looks like this:

Notes

– I’d be shocked if McGuire didn’t need two years offensively in AA and AAA.  He’s so young and body is so lean.

– Diaz could possibly be promoted in 2016, but it would be after June to prevent his Super Two status.  Same with McGuire in 2019.

The Pirates would be well-served to sell McGuire while there is still some hype around him

Prospects are the opiate of the masses, especially to fans of long-suffering franchises or franchises about to start suffering.  Prospects are used to sell hope to fans to ensure that they don’t lose hope or faith in the major league franchise.  Prospects are a placebo.  The haul that the Philadelphia Phillies got for Cole Hamels was impressive, but their fans shouldn’t bank on every one of them developing into a viable major-league starter and catapulting the Phillies back to the playoffs next year.  The hope of obtaining prospects buys time for front offices until they can acquire major league talent that is already producing at the major league level, while sorting through a trove of prospects to determine who will make the cut.

The usefulness of prospects all depends on where a team is located at on the ‘win curve’.  The 2015 Pirates are at the peak of the win curve right now and should be utilizing every available chip they have to not only make the playoffs, but make a run at the World Series.  A team like the 2015 Phillies are on the opposite end of the win curve and should be accruing as many of these lottery tickets as possible.

A farm system is good for two things:

1. Providing the major league team with cost-controlled production for six seasons
2. Used as trade chips to acquire talent for the major league team

This may seem harsh to some of you, but our research on surplus value of prospects generated some eye-opening data on the bust rates of Baseball America Top 100 prospects from 1994-2005.  Here’s the chart from the original article:

The “Less Than 3 WAR” designation means that over the six years of team control, that player didn’t even average 0.5 WAR/season, the typical threshold for a bench or bullpen piece.  And obviously the “Zero WAR or less” column shows the absolute bust rate for that tier of player.

And remember, these are the so-called elite prospects culled from all 30 major league teams.  Look at the rates for hitters #26-50, #51-75, and #76-100.  Then look at the rates for all pitchers that are not in the #1-10 tier.  Pretty sobering, right?

That’s why obsessing over where supposed top Pirate prospects, like Josh Bell and Reese McGuire as two recent polarizing examples, will land on Baseball America’s next list is a waste of time.  Unless they are the cream of the crop, which neither will be, then evaluate whether or not their respective trendlines are pointing up or down.  For me, a player like McGuire is trending down.  The 2015 season will be his second consecutive season with an OPS in the low 600’s.  Josh Bell is trending down, too, with only 5 HR’s from the 1B position.  Jose Osuna, a player of modest future, was recently promoted to Bell’s Altoona team and hit his 5th HR in half the at-bats that Bell has accrued at the same level this year.

And this doesn’t even delve into the tracking of non-BA Top 100 prospects in the Pirate system.  There are hundreds of players across the seven domestic levels of minor league teams in the Pirate system.  Only a tiny, tiny percentage will even make it to the pinnacle of Triple A and warrant consideration for a call-up to Pittsburgh.  And of that tiny number, a much more minuscule number will stick around to make a meaningful contribution.  Jaff Decker for the Pirates is a great example of this — supplemental 1st round draft pick of the Padres in the 2008 draft, so automatically he has some pedigree and built-in hype.   Decker put up good, not great, stats in his minor league career and got rated as the 82nd best prospect prior to the 2010 season.  Now 25 years old, he’s received only 54 plate appearances over parts of three seasons (and now two franchises) and has accrued a whopping -0.4 WAR.  It’s not hard to see that he’s on track for adding on to the bust rate columns.

Here’s where every Pirate starting position player ranked in their last year on Baseball America’s list — not their peak position, but last time on the list — and their career WAR, plus their draft round.

• C — Francisco Cervelli (international FA signee) — never ranked, 6.1 career WAR
• 1B — Pedro Alvarez (1st round) — #8, 5.7 career WAR
• 2B — Neil Walker (1st round) — #61, 14.8 career WAR
• SS — Jordy Mercer (3rd round) — never ranked, 3.8 career WAR
• 3B — Josh Harrison (6th round) — never ranked, 6.8 career WAR
• LF — Starling Marte (international FA signee) — #73, 12.5 career WAR
• CF — Andrew McCutchen (1st round) — #33, 37.7 career WAR
• RF — Gregory Polanco (international FA signee) — #10, 1.2 career WAR

And the pitchers:

• SP1 — Gerrit Cole (1st round) — #7, 8.0 career WAR
• SP2 — A.J. Burnett (8th round) — #20, 43.0 career WAR
• SP3 — Francisco Liriano (international FA signee) — #6, 22.1 career WAR
• SP4 — Charlie Morton (3rd round) — unranked, 6.5 career WAR
• SP5 — Jeff Locke (2nd round) — unranked, 2.6 career WAR

Look at how disparate all that information is.  There are starters on a championship-caliber club that Baseball America (and other scouting services) never ranked.  There are players from outside the 1st round.  There are four players from the international ranks.

The takeaway from all this is as follows — No one knows for certain how players will develop.  Not the industry-standard Baseball America, not any site that has people at every affiliate of the Pirates system, and certainly not me.  Everyone is taking educated guesses.  I look at things using numbers; others rely on first-hand scouting, even though most of the people aren’t scouts at all.

I encourage everyone to think for themselves and develop your own methodology of what a good prospect looks like.  For me, I use two criteria:

1. What is this player’s ultimate ceiling?
2. How likely is that player going to reach that ceiling?

Let’s take Harold Ramirez as an example.  The Pirates signed him out of Columbia as an international free agent back in 2011 at the standard age of 16.  Now 20, Ramirez has ascended to High A Bradenton.  Ramirez battled hamstring issues last year and missed a chunk of time this year due to injury as well, but has put up an excellent season line of .365 AVG/.413 OBP/.517 SLG (930 OPS) in 45 games.  But it’s only 45 games and there’s just a month of the minor league season left — we can’t expect him to realistically maintain that level over the course of a standard 140 game season.

He’s hit 3 HR’s and stolen 16 bases, but has been caught 11 times for a less than stellar 59.2% success rate (72% is the go/no-go cutoff line).  He’s a boxy player at his listed height/weight of 5′-10″/210 lbs, although those are notoriously wrong, so he’s kind of a Jose Tabata-shaped player.  To me, Ramirez seems like a 4th OF and not a starter (question #1 from above).  Due to his injury history and non-proximity to the majors, his likelihood of reaching his ceiling is medium-low (question #2 from above).  For me, Ramirez is the 8th best prospect in the Pirates’ system and not a BA Top 100-caliber prospect as of yet.  I would have no qualms in dealing him in the proper trade for a player that would help the Pittsburgh Pirates at the major league level.

Many of the Baseball Americas, Baseball Prospectii, Fangraphs of the world put an over-emphasis on tools.  I prefer to balance tools with production and track record.  That’s how you get a player like Jordy Mercer that keeps chugging along through the minors, with little to no fanfare from national services, and he turns into a productive starting shortstop.

Don’t get enamored by a player’s draft position.  Don’t get caught up in a hype machine over what a player could become if all the stars align.  Just look at what a player is doing and his proximity to the Majors.  Look at his strikeout and walk ratios.  In the minors, a hitter should be walking close to 10% of his plate appearances and striking out no more than 20%.  If a player is doing worse than that in the minors, how does he expect to get better magically in the Majors?  The same is true for pitchers: look at their strikeout rates, which ideally should be 1 strikeout per inning pitched and less than 1 walk per 3 innings pitched.  How does that pitcher fare against righties and lefties in their split stats?  If it’s not well, that indicates a poor offspeed pitch like a changeup to opposite-handed hitters or a poor slider/curve to same-handed hitters.

Yes, I believe that the Pirates’ farm system is having a down year.  No, that doesn’t mean I believe it is a desolate wasteland with tumbleweeds rolling by.  Lost in all the sound and fury of the response to that article is the takeaway that the system is trending downward and I don’t see true impact talent, outside of Tyler Glasnow, on the horizon for the Pirates.  Everything is great at the major league level and should remain that way through 2018, but the players that should be coming up in the next few years to possibly extend that window don’t appear to be at that necessary production level for me.

These minor leaguers are just another form of currency for the Pirates and Neal Huntington to barter with at today’s trade deadline and in the offseason.  If you don’t have an attachment to them, it makes it much easier to move them or, in our case, watch them get moved to another team.  Did their movement help the Pirates?  That’s the only question that needs answered in these deals.  Jacoby Jones for Joakim Soria?  That’s a great deal to get a reliever that should lock down the 7th inning for the Pirates on their way to the playoffs in exchange for a player that was overage at High A in 2015, has poor K/BB rates, and will probably not stick at SS in the Majors, if he makes it.  I know I won’t be losing any sleep over Jacoby Jones.

The loss of Taillon in 2015 affected the Major team in terms of depth and trading power.
Photo by Bill Gentry/MiLB.com

If you currently spend $2.99 a month to hear about how great a 21st round pick can be in five years, this article may upset you. I’m not going to sugarcoat how poor this year has been for the Pirates’ minor league system.  Coming into the year, Baseball America ranked their farm 7th overall; I personally put them at 4th.  The reasons for the downfall are myriad.

INJURIES

This is as good a place to start as any.  Injuries started early for the Pirates, as Brandon Cumpton succumbed to Tommy John surgery in March.  Cumpton was nothing special, probably a #4 starter as a ceiling, but he was the start of the injury parade.  In early May, Nick Kingham fell victim to Tommy John.  Those two were legitimate options to be called up as depth options for Pittsburgh in 2015.  Promising 2014 draftee C/OF Kevin Krause went under the knife himself for elbow issues.

The kicker, however, is the sad tale of Jameson Taillon.  After undergoing Tommy John in April 2014, it was thought that Taillon would be fit enough to open the 2015 season in AAA Indianapolis, scrape the rust off, then come up in late June after the Super 2 deadline had passed.  Well, Taillon didn’t even make it to a team until mid-June, itself a sign that his TJ recovery was not going well, and then was diagnosed with an inguinal hernia that will keep him out the remainder of the 2015 season before he even pitched.

INEFFECTIVENESS

Tony Sanchez has apparently demonstrated to the Pirates that he’s unable to defensively be a starter in the Majors.  Fellow catcher Elias Diaz has put up a 700 OPS in Triple A this year.  Luis Heredia continues to slide off the radar of being a prospect (47 IP, 5.89 ERA, 18 BB, 22 K).

It’s difficult to say that Josh Bell is disappointing (.312 AVG, 811 OPS), but his lack of power (4 HR, .119 Isolated Slugging Percentage, .140 is minimum you really want) is odd.  It’s hard to see him being a valid Major League starting 1B with that lack of power.  When 5′-10″ Alen Hanson is out-homering you, that’s not a good sign.

Fellow 2013 1st round draft picks, Reese McGuire and Austin Meadows, have both been disappointing for different reasons.  McGuire has an empty bat that portends no power (.270 AVG, 9 extra base hits in 259 AB’s, 622 OPS), while Meadows (.300 AVG, 759 OPS) has been underwhelming with little power (.094 ISO) of his own.

2014’s draft class has been a no-show this year.  SS Cole Tucker has slap-hit his way to an empty .290 batting average but with a 682 OPS.  Sure, he has 21 shiny stolen bases, but there’s no power there.  And if he grows into some power, he’ll probably outgrow the shortstop position and his bat won’t be enough at another position.  The trio of high school pitchers — Mitch Keller, Trey Supak, and Gage Hinsz — have combined for a whopping total of 20 innings in 2015, with Keller not even pitching yet this year.  All three are at short-season Bristol, which is disappointing in its own right, as previous high-end high school pitchers were challenged at the more advanced short-season New York-Penn League (the new West Virginia affiliate).  This year has been a complete lost year for all three of them.

INSUFFICIENT DRAFT CLASSES

The 2008 draft has been Neal Huntington’s most successful draft class to date.  The ascendancy of the Pirates to perennial playoff contender has been augmented by Pedro Alvarez (1st round), Jordy Mercer (3th round), and Justin Wilson (5th round), who was flipped this past offseason in a 1-for-1 deal for Francisco Cervelli.  Getting two starters and one bullpen guy out of a single draft is a success; typically, if you can get 1 starter and 1 bench/bullpen guy that’s good.

Since then, the drafts have not directly produced much talent.  Yes, it takes at least 4-5 years to properly assess a class, but it’s not too early to make projections on some of them:

• 2009 — Terrible. No direct major contributions.  Tony Sanchez (1st) doesn’t have a future here because of his defense.  Pirates have used picks in trades like Vic Black (supp 1st), Brooks Pounders (2nd), Colton Cain (8th), Brock Holt (9th), Aaron Baker (11th).
• 2010 — Up in the air.  Most production from a healthy pick is from 25th rounder Casey Sadler, which is both positive and sad.  Jameson Taillon (1st), Nick Kingham (4th), and Brandon Cumpton (9th) can sway this pendulum greatly if they return healthy in 2016.  This was the draft where the Pirates gambled on signing some premium high school pitchers and missed — Jason Hursh (6th), Austin Kubitza (7th), Dace Kime (8th), and Zack Weiss (10th) all didn’t sign.
• 2011 — Success.  Thanks to Gerrit Cole (1st) becoming an ace, even if Pirates don’t get anything else out of this draft, I’m happy — setting aside my 1 starter, 1 bench/bullpen theory.  Tyler Glasnow (5th) seems on the verge of joining Cole as a front-line starter.  Josh Bell (2nd) is overrated, in my opinion, but could contribute.  Jason Creasy (8th) and Clay Holmes (9th) could also be contributors in a couple of years.
• 2012 — Could get interesting.  Mark Appel (1st) left a gaping hole when he didn’t sign, but the Pirates are getting some potential out of down draft picks like Adrian Sampson (5th) and Max Moroff (16th).  Overall, I don’t think draft this will produce enough.
• 2013 — Odd draft.  Austin Meadows (1st) has hit, but not much power.  Reese McGuire (1st, for Mark Appel not signing) has the makings of a bust.  Blake Taylor (2nd), Buddy Borden (7th), and Shane Carle (10th) have already been used in trades.  Adam Frazier (6th) could be a bench guy and Chad Kuhl (9th) could be a middle reliever.
• 2014–2015 — Way too early to judge, but not looking good.  This is the worst part — the Pirates have had back-to-back drafts with little to no upside picks.  The 2015 draft resembles a mid-era Dave Littlefield draft in terms of lack of upside and appears to be shaping up as a wasted effort (yes…I’m calling it after a whopping one month, it’s that bad).  Getting little out of consecutive drafts would be a terrible outcome for a team that needs to rely on the farm system for sustainability.

HOW THIS AFFECTS JULY TRADES

Unlike last year when the Pirates were riding high on industry perceptions of certain players, this year the Pirates do not have any high-end prospect performing at peak level, as even Tyler Glasnow was injured for a month this year.  As a result, they can’t sell the allure and upside like in years past.  Every one of their top 6 or 7 “blue chip” guys is either injured, coming off an injury, or just plain have had a down year.

So when Neal Huntington enters trade discussions, he’ll have to work extra hard to sell opposing GM’s on taking these damaged goods.  Or, even worse, he risks getting sandbagged by an opposing GM who is feigning disinterest in the Pirates’ prospects, all the while trying to squeeze an extra player into the potential deal to make up for the supposed drop in prospect value.

It’s time to face the facts that the Pirates’ farm system has peaked.  Setting aside Tyler Glasnow, all 6′-8″ of him, there are no more high-impact prospects like McCutchen, Marte, Cole, and Polanco (he’ll get there).  There are some complementary pieces like Hanson, Bell, Kingham, and Meadows, but I don’t foresee any of them being frontliners.  Taillon, for me, is downgraded to a mid-rotation arm with the lost season of 2015 and one TJ surgery under his belt already.  He’ll be 24 next season and in need of AAA time to make up for 2015 — his clock is ticking.

The Pirates can make a play for any player they want on the market.  They could get Cueto, Hamels, Chapman, or whatever high value target comes on line.  But they may have to overpay just a touch more in 2015’s midseason than they would have in the offseason leading up to it.

Is Neil Walker expendable at the trade deadline?
Photo by Jamie Sabau/Getty Images

I thought about starting this piece with a goofball take on the Pirates’ front office as actual pirates using actual players to fish for sharks but luckily for the readers:

1) I’m not that cheesy

2) I don’t feel like hating myself tomorrow morning

Regardless of how the piece begins, every fan needs to accept that in order to get something at the trade deadline, you need to give something of value up in return. To put it in hockey terms, Beau Bennett, Brian Dumoulin and a 4th round pick does not equal Brandon Saad. You can’t trade spare parts, busts and trash and expect a solid return like you can playing some EA game.

The Pirates are in a great position ahead of the August trade deadline thanks to depth in both the minors and at the major league level to make a real splash. That’s not to say that they will, but they can. Here’s a look at a few names I would consider trading. In a future post, I’ll look at who I wouldn’t trade.

5 Players To Trade

Josh Bell

Let me make it clear. I like Josh Bell and he’s one of my favorite prospects right now. With the emphasis on the shift, I like the idea of a line drive hitter who can just put the ball in play by spraying it to all fields. I also want a guy who can reliably put the ball in play in the middle of the order, as I believe Bell can. The power output right now is not ideal for first base, but there is a dearth of pure hitters in the league. He seems like a nice reliable security blanket that you just don’t need to worry about.

However, he could be well regarded on the trade market for teams looking for a near-ready bat and the return could be considerable. He might also be somewhat expendable if the Pirates feel confident they can land another Korean slugger in Byung-Ho Park. If the Pirates want to make a big move at the deadline, they’ll need to move a big prospect and Bell just might be the guy.

Neil Walker

Let’s be honest — Neil Walker’s days in Pittsburgh are numbered. An extension hasn’t materialized and with the smoother-than-expected transition to North America for Jung-ho Kang, the steady, but not spectacular progress in the minors by Alen Hanson and the breakout of middle round over-slot prep player Max Moroff, the need to keep him around dwindles with each passing day.

We’ve seen more and more selling teams over the last two seasons looking to buy established players. Walker could be attractive for a team down on their luck in 2015 that can to rebound quickly in 2016 like the Oakland A’s or one that incorrectly thinks they can like the Chicago White Sox.

Mark Melancon

From some people, this might seem like a scraps for treasure proposal. However, I’ve been one of a handful that wasn’t so quick to give up on the Shark this season despite the early velocity drop and his slow start. By slow start, I mean one blown save and a couple of hairy outings made closer than they needed to be. He’s rebounded considerably and put himself into a position to pitch the ninth in of the All Star Game for the National League.

Of course, now might be the right time to strike up a deal. Melancon heads into his final year of arbitration already making $5.4 million this season. With Tony Watson, Arquimedes Caminero, Jared Hughes and even Rob Scahill looking like late inning options, there wouldn’t be much need to keep Melancon on the payroll at $7-8 million next season. Do you trade him now when you get more value in the return or do you trade him later after you get more value on the field?

While MLB GM’s seem to be wising up about the returns they’re willing to shell out for a reliever in trades, this could be a great opportunity for the Pirates to trade strength for strength with another contender or simply replenish the system hurt by players they lost in other deals. Personally, I’d prefer they hold out on the latter option until the offseason, unless the buying team is willing to massively overpay with the Angels, Rangers and Rays all looking like suitable dance partners for the former.

Adrian Sampson

Sampson’s not a guy that any rebuilding organization is going to build their rotation around, but he could provide a useful building block that can eat innings now and later at the back end of a contending rotation. He pitched 167 innings last year between AA and AAA and sits in the top five in the International League this season for innings.

Problem is, there really isn’t anywhere for him to go in Pittsburgh. Vance Worley could come out of the pen if needed and Clayton Richard has likely supplanted him on the depth chart. He’s probably a coin flip with Casey Sadler for the eighth man right now and really that might depend on what day of the week it is. On top of that, there is the looming return of Jameson Taillon who will skip over everyone once sufficiently recovered from Tommy John surgery. Sampson had a two week window at the beginning of May where he had a real shot at sneaking into a major league debut, but that moment has passed and he’s buried again.

Just because he can’t help the Pirates doesn’t mean he can’t help anyone else. While he won’t land Cole Hamels, he could slide into the Phillies and a couple of other rotations tomorrow. He might also be a year or so away from helping a couple of others.

Reese McGuire

This might be an example of selling low, but it also might be an example of recovering some value from a sunk cost. McGuire’s an interesting case study. He’s showing outstanding defense in the early part of his career throwing out 31% of the runners who attempt to steal on him at a level where pitchers aren’t known to pay much attention to runners. He’s also showing excellent contact skills by only striking out 9.5% of the time, good for 5th best in the FSL. Problem is, he owns a .275 BABIP and has hit for virtually no power. While he’s got some time to save his season, there’s not a lot of success stories of guys who OPS around .600 in High A, outside of Martin Maldonado.

That said, McGuire is still young and has time to turn it around. Trade partners might be enticed by the combination of age, defense and contact and might bet that the rest of the package will develop. McGuire has shown the ability to spray the ball to all fields and he has hit a fair amount of line drives. The Pirates likely won’t get top 100 value for him, but it’s not out of the question that some organizations will see him as a B- bat with potential to develop into a solid option every third day.

***

In the end, the Pirates will need to make a package to complete any significant move, but the above choices could factor in. Some have more significant value than others, but each has something to offer partners. The moves could also turn into ones the front office will regret later, but you need to give something to get something.

Five Players who the Pirates Shouldn’t Trade

Max Moroff has got off to a strong start in AA so far this year
Photo via MiLB (Mark Olsen)

The minor league season hasn’t even been one month, but as the calendar flips to May, a natural tendency is to evaluate how things have gone so far.  Mike Bradley, Steve DiMiceli, and I thought it would be a good time to each look at three positive and negative trendlines so far down on the Pirates’ farm.

KEVIN’S POSITIVES

1.  Max Moroff, 2B, Altoona — Moroff was drafted in the 16th round back in 2012 out of high school in Florida.  He was older for his draft class, but has steadily progressed up the minor league ladder and is an age-22 year old in AA this season, which is right on track for what is considered a prospect at that level.  He lacked the range to stay at SS, so the Pirates moved him to 2B last year, where he has continued to play this year at Altoona.

Prior to this season, Moroff had a pretty sketchy hit tool, but he always had good walk rates (albeit with high K rates around 22%). This year, Moroff has kept the great walk rate (14.1%), cut down on the K rate (14.1%) and is tearing the cover off the ball with a triple slash of .297 AVG/.400 OBP/.453 SLG.  If the Pirates can somehow parlay Moroff into the middle infield picture, even as a utility player, that would be a huge win.

2. Jin-de Jhang, C, Bradenton — Full disclosure: Prior to the start of this season, I have been a Jhang doubter.  In 2014, due to the quasi-logjam at catcher in the system, mostly due to the presence of newly-drafted Reese McGuire, Jhang was forced to play at Bradenton as a 21-year old that skipped Low A.  Predictably, this did not end well, as Jhang put up a triple slash of .219 AVG/.263 OBP/.301 SLG.

This year, Jhang is repeating the level at age-22 and splitting time with McGuire at catcher and also DH’ing.  He has gone full supernova in the month of April with a scorching line of .431 AVG/.474 OBP/.490 SLG in 51 at-bats.  Hot month?  Benefit of repeating the level?  Maturing as a hitter?  Whatever it is, Jhang has put himself back on the map of catching depth prospects for the Pirates, even if there is very little extra-base power in the bat.

3.  Tyler Glasnow, RHP, Altoona — Really going out on a limb here, Kevin.  I know…coming into the season he was either the #1 or #2 prospect in the whole system.  But for me, I wanted to see him prove it at the meat grinder level of AA before I totally bought in.  So far, he’s faring quite well in 16 IP with 6 BB, 17 K, and a 1.08 ERA.

These numbers aren’t quite his video-game-on-rookie-level numbers from 2014, but it would be unrealistic to expect that level of dominance to continue as he progresses.  The blazing upper 90’s fastball is his calling card, but a plus curveball and developing changeup are what will decide how successful Glasnow is in the Majors.  It wouldn’t be surprising to see him promoted in August to AAA and then put himself in line for a rotation look in Pittsburgh in July 2016.

KEVIN’S NEGATIVES

1.  Luis Heredia — Heredia has yet to be assigned to a team this year due to poor conditioning coming into the year.  Again.  His stuff has backed up, as he now sits low 90’s on his fastball.  Word on the street is that he’s not very coachable.  Add it up all and he’s slip sliding off of my prospect radar and just about every other prospect evaluator’s radar, even as a 20-year old.

2.  Barrett Barnes/Harold Ramirez/Connor Joe — The ability to stay healthy is the unofficial 6th tool for a player.  These three players are all showing in their careers that they have the inability to do so.  Ramirez and Joe have yet to play this season, while Barnes got into a whole five games before going down.

3.  Reese McGuire, C, Bradenton — Drafted as the catcher of the future in 2013, McGuire has demonstrated above-average defensive skills, but his bat is lagging far behind.  His walk rates are sub-par and he has almost no power in his bat, making him Pittsburgh’s version of the Padres’ Austin Hedges.

STEVE’S POSITIVES

1.  Cole Tucker, SS, West Virginia — He’s got an empty batting average, but he’s 18 and holding his own in full season baseball. There is something to be said for that.

2.  Zack Dodson, LHP, Altoona — His ceiling is probably pretty low, but it’s nice see him finally beginning to figure things out.

3.  Max Moroff, 2B, Altoona — With Dilson Herrera gone and thriving in the Mets system, the Pirates didn’t have many interesting middle infield solutions in the upper minors till now. In a small sample size, his reduced K  rate and all around BB:K make me think his hot start could be sustainable.  This is why you draft guys at elite positions (Moroff was drafted as a SS) — you can move them off position later. The high BABIP gives me concerns.

STEVE’S NEGATIVES

1.  Wyatt Mathisen, 3B, Bradenton — Everyone’s waiting for him to be Neil Walker and his slight up tick in hitting last season suggested he might be figuring it out. His slow start is disappointing.

2.  Jose Tabata, OF, Indianapolis/exiled — The Pirates former LF’er of the future is mired so deep in the organization’s doghouse that he only has 48 PA’s for Indy, good for 9th on the Indians. It’s strange for me to feel sorry for someone saddled with millions of dollars, but I do. He could help a few major league teams, but his long term deal has him bound to Pittsburgh.

3.  Alen Hansen, 2B, Indianapolis — I’ve often had concerns about how well Alen Hansen would do in the upper minors and, unfortunately, they appear to be legit. He’s still very young for AAA, but after not really killing it in Altoona, I’ll have to start questioning his upside if he can’t turn it around.

MICHAEL’S POSITIVES

1.  Josh Bell, Max Moroff and Jin-De Jhang — All three have been hitting the lights out.   Everyone knows Bell, but possibly not Moroff and Jhang.   Moroff is a SS who is currently playing 2B in Altoona, due to Gift Ngeope playing SS (and could be doing this to focus on his bat). Jhang is in Bradenton catching some, playing some, and playing some DH.

2.  Steve Lombardozzi and Deibinson Romero, Indianapolis — Both are looking like good infield depth options.   Most people know Lombardozzi by now, as he was part of the much dissected Doug Fister trade, but Romero isn’t a household name.   In the winter Steamer projected him to have the highest minor league WAR of all the minor league free agents.  Romero has backed it up so far slashing .320/.463 /.640 with 4 HRs.

3.  Subjectively it looks as if the Pirates’ high minors are dwarfing most teams in prospects.   There are some terrible AA and AAA teams Indy and Altoona have been playing so far.

MICHAEL’S NEGATIVES

1.  Stetson Allie, OF, Altoona — Allie isn’t taking the next step on offense so far this season.   We all know about his power and beautiful BP swing but the average isn’t getting any better.   He’s only hitting .231 and has 23 K’s to only 5 BB’s.   His ship is starting to sail away without him.

2.  The Altoona pitchers have done well on the scoreboard and have given up the least amount of hits in the Eastern League, but they also are last in the Eastern in K’s by 19 over the second to last team.

3.  Nick Kingham, RHP, Indianapolis —  Kingham is supposedly major league ready and waiting in the wings in AAA, but his starts haven’t been dominating.   He has a great defense behind him, but his ERA is 4.85 through five starts.    Until he can dominate AAA hitters he’ll marinate in the International League.

When will Taillon debut in Pittsburgh in 2015?
Photo via Inside Pitch

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It’s prospect season! That’s the time of year between the end of the winter meetings and when pitchers and catchers report dedicated to organization ranking lists and Top 100’s. It’s down time for everyone but the nerdiest of fans. We at The Point of Pittsburgh decided to join the fun. Where most lists stop at ten or thirty, we’re going all the way up to forty making ours the nerdiest list around.

Each of us completed our individual lists and then aggregated them into a complete list. Today, we’ll look at the top ten.  Ages in parentheses are as of July 1st, 2015.  We projected what level the player will spend the majority of the 2015 season, as well.  In case you missed them, here are some links:

#40-31

#30-21

#20-11

10. Harold Ramirez (20) OF, A+

Kevin Creagh – Has all the tools to be a starting OF, but I am a sizeist. It’s hard to see his 5’10” frame (yes, I know Cutch is the same height) starting for the Pirates long-term. Probable trade chip in the future

Steve DiMiceli – I think people overlook what he’s done at his age. He’s a potential Five Tool centerfielder, and even though you wouldn’t know it from the Pirates organization, they don’t grow on trees.

Michael Bradley – Potential 4 tool guy (minus the power). Injuries robbed him of time in ’14 but he’s still very young.

9. Elias Diaz (24) C, AAA/MLB

Michael – A plus backup catcher floor with a ceiling to be an average starter. Diaz breakout in ’14 gives the “FranChrisco” tandem some depth and provides a bridge to McGuire.

Steve – Has the defensive makings of a solid back up catcher, but I’d like to see the bat play a little higher at AAA before I’d call him the heir apparent for the starting catching role as some presume.

Kevin –If he continues to progress at AAA in 2015, Diaz could be 2016’s opening day catcher. Bat could be above-avg for position

8. Adrian Sampson (23) RHP, AAA

Steve – Sampson is another great example of why you shouldn’t lose your crap on a player when the Pirates move them quickly. Looking like a great back-of-rotation innings eater, but I bet he’ll reach that ceiling somewhere else.

Kevin – Broke out in 2014, probably a #4 long term. Could see the Majors in 2015 down the stretch

7. Reese McGuire (20) C, A+

Kevin – Touted as catcher of the future. Defense said to be Major League ready right now, but alarming lack of power (even doubles) is a flag for me. Yes, he’s young, but it was an empty average in 2014

Steve – His solid contact skills and defense will carry him through the minors but his ceiling is Ryan Hanigan if he doesn’t develop a little pop.

Michael – When you have a player that scouts enjoy watching play defense you know you have a gem. McGuire supposedly handles pitchers like a ML vet and has hit enough to keep getting promoted. He hasn’t shown a giant platoon split yet and is crazy young for an American born player. Ceiling is HIGH but his bat could fail.

6. Alen Hanson (22) 2B, AAA

Steve – I still have questions about whether or not the bat will translate to the majors, but he still has upside even at second base if he gets it together.

Michael – While he might be lower on everyone else’s list, the fact that he could contribute TODAY gets him this high. He’s super young, doesn’t have a large platoon split, could play some short and has JHay potential.

Kevin – Brings a nice blend of power/speed to 2B position. Attitude concerns lead me to believe that Pirates would move him in the right deal. Kang may have been a hedge for such a move

5. Josh Bell (22) RF/1B, AA/AAA

Kevin –If the power develops this year, could be 2016’s 1B. Move to 1B dings his value a touch, so #5 feels right

Michael – Probably the lowest you’ll see Bell ranked. His hit tool is OK, his defense is OK, his patience and power is OK for a corner. He’s not super young anymore. He’s an good prospect that could turn into a Nick Swisher type or a switch hitting Travis Snider.

Steve – While his second half power outage was concerning, Bell makes for a rare combination of pop and plate discipline. He could be heading towards that high ceiling of his.

4. Nick Kingham (23) RHP, AAA/MLB

Michael – While he’s a pitcher and has some of the same drawbacks that pitchers do, his risk is less. First, he’s succeeded at AA and a little at AAA. Second, he has the command and control it’s just a question of whether his stuff is good enough.

Steve – There is no such thing as a safe pitching prospect, but my goodness does Kingham feel like it. He likely won’t be more than a 3 but his ability to eat innings will play anywhere in the rotation.

Kevin – Solid #3 for me, also on verge of Majors

3. Austin Meadows (20) OF, A+

Kevin – Dynamic talent that was beset by hamstring injury in 2014. If he performs as expected, should be #2 on this list next year behind Glasnow

Steve – Meadows is still so far away, but if he can stay healthy while mashing A+ pitching as a third year pro, I suspect he’ll earn elite status.

Michael – The ceiling (5 tool star), the fact he can stick in CF and mainly the fact that he’s not a pitcher vault him up to #1 (for me).

2. Tyler Glasnow (21) RHP, AA

Michael – He’s number two mainly due to the fact that very few pitchers reach their ceiling or stay healthy. Gerrit Cole was more talented than him and still is only a 2 WAR player so far.

Kevin – May have higher upside than Taillon, but control still a slight concern, plus needing to prove it at AA. Enviable problem to choose between them

Steve – Glasnow has the highest ceiling in the system, but I still have concerns with his floor thanks to control. I think he’s a major leaguer but will he start?

1. Jameson Taillon (23) RHP, AAA/MLB

Kevin – Still a #2 level pitcher for me, on verge of Majors, fastball-curve combo should make him AJ Burnett

Steve – Tommy John surgery doesn’t even scare me anymore. Taillon looked like he could jump into a major league rotation as a solid 4 when I saw him pitch in Altoona. He’s a great combination of ceiling and floor.

Michael -Tommy John and the lack of a third plus pitch overcome the makeup, the body and his stellar appearance as a Canadian pitcher in the World Baseball Classic.

****

Prospects #40-31

Prospects #30 – 21

Prospect #20 – 11

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Follow Steve on Twitter @SteveDiMiceli