Comments on: Trading Vazquez Is The Best Worst Thing To Do

By: Richard Hohmann

Richard Hohmann — Mon, 16 Jul 2018 12:45:57 +0000

Great piece. NH probably not bold enough to make such a move.

By: Joe

Joe — Mon, 16 Jul 2018 00:08:27 +0000

Like you said, most bloggers don’t know baseball 🙂 Yeah Vasquez would bring in a large return.. but as you also said, the pen has been shaky this year (including felipe). so his return might be a bit less than what we’d want. Until recently the pen was giving up hits faster than a pipe in a crack house.

Still a couple weeks away from deadline. if they lose all the ground they gained the past couple weeks.. consider every one available at the right price.. but there really isn’t anyone on the team that performed like they’re worth top 10s this year. (as a whole)

By: Kevin Creagh

Kevin Creagh — Fri, 13 Jul 2018 13:51:26 +0000

You’re correct about seven 1 WAR players vs one 7 WAR player, but Surplus Value tends to focus on the “big fish” elite talents you (and I) both want. If GM’s (ahem, NH) choose to take the return in 4 pieces rather than 1, that’s on them, not the model.

By: wkkortas

wkkortas — Thu, 12 Jul 2018 14:21:00 +0000

The only thing that rankles me about surplus value is that it doesn’t make allowances for the fact talent isn’t evenly distributed–in other words, it assumes that seven 1.0 WAR players are worth the same as one 7.0 WAR player, which isn’t the case, because the latter is much harder to find, and certainly not available on the open market. Trading Vasquez is a chance for the Bucs to snag an elite talent, or at least an elite prospect. If they aren’t getting someone like a Whitley or a Robles if the Nats lose their collective minds, that’s the return they need to hold out for as opposed to a package of good-but-not-top-shelf types.

By: Kevin Creagh

Kevin Creagh — Thu, 12 Jul 2018 10:33:53 +0000

This is a great use of Surplus Value and well sourced

By: NC_BOB

NC_BOB — Thu, 12 Jul 2018 01:54:10 +0000

I think Mejia from Cleveland would be interesting return. Then you can trade Cervelli.

Padres should trade Brad Hand to the Astros.

By: Jimbo

Jimbo — Wed, 11 Jul 2018 16:10:16 +0000

Can you say Colin Moran ?

By: Jimbo

Jimbo — Wed, 11 Jul 2018 16:04:03 +0000

The Yankees need a second baseman, why didn’t they send us Clint Frazier for Jayhay? Cashman is no dummy.

By: Joe

Joe — Wed, 11 Jul 2018 13:45:25 +0000

Alright. This is my kind of article. I think that Vasquez could be the best bet to replenish the farm, and doing it now would be a very forward thinking, smart move. My concern is that NH will see him as an integral piece to the NEXT window, rather than a piece to create that window. But we’re not doing that here. We’re talking about the smart move and that’s all that matters here.. so on to my points:

I dabble in the Surplus Value calcs, and my current calculation for Vasquez puts his value at $37.95M, but I’ve read a few articles that tried to quantify the July premium and I settled on ~176%. I can find the articles if you’re interested, but I’m riffing right now.. let me go, ok? So that puts Vasquez in the $66.80M ballpark. Okay, so let’s look at returns mentioned (Note: These prospect values are a combination of Fangraphs, TPOP, and my own regressions.. take w/ grain of salt, please).

Robles: $78.6M — As much as I would LOVE to give the Nats back Vasquez in exchange for Robles, I think that he’s too valuable. With Harper potentially on the outs, pairing Robles w/ Soto is too enticing for DC.

Meijia: $60.7M — That value seems to make some sense, and it’s a position of little depth for Pittsburgh. Definitely an option, but I think that CLE balks because he’s the heir apparent and he could probably help w/ the run this year.

Whitley: $53.5M — Another option where value syncs a bit. Give me another FV: 45 prospect or 2 and we’re in business.

Verdugo: $25M — So I know Verdugo is a top prospect, but I’m not all that intrigued by him. In this scenario, I’d ask for him + C Will Smith ($25M) and another piece or 2.

Florial: $25M — I’m a big Florial fan b/c I love toolsy, high upside outfielders.. just like everyone else. He’s a guy that needs to develop, something I wouldn’t necessarily trust would occur in Pittsburgh. But that’s just me being a pessimist.

Alright, so lastly I wanted to put together a potential package or two for Vasquez and call it a day.

Cleveland: Tristan McKenzie RHP ($20.1M, ETA 2020), Shane Bieber ($3.4M .. probably will need to be updated, ETA 2019), and Will Benson OF ($7.4M, ETA 2021)

This return gives you two tall, projectable pitchers that should stay in the rotation and a behemoth that probably won’t be Aaron Judge, if I’m a bettin’ man, but.. he sure does look like him.

Astros: Yordan Alvarez OF/1B ($25M, ETA 2020), JB Bakauskus RHP ($20.1M, ETA 2019) and Cionel Perez LHP ($3.4M, ETA 2019)

I like monsters that hit for power, so what? Also 2 more pitchers w/ plenty of potential. I BELIEVE Perez could be a pen arm.

Yankees: Florial OF ($25M, ETA 2020), Freicer Perez RHP ($20.1M, ETA 2020), Domingo Acevado RHP ($3.4M, ETA 2018) and UTIL Brandon Drury

Alright, this one’s quality AND quantity. We’ve touched on Florial. W/ Perez and Acevado we get the twin towers of RHP. They are 6’8 and 6’7 respectively. Both are ready to go in the near future, so that would fulfill NH’s plan to stay competitive near term. And Drury is a personal favorite. He was recently acquired from Arizona, but w/ Andujar & Torres asserting themselves, he may be a man w/o a position. He’s got a great hit tool and he’s juust average enough across the diamond to fulfill that super utility position. He can play 7 positions on the diamond, so he’ll be Hurdle’s dream. A mega upgrade over S-Rod. If that comment is now moot, I stopped watching a few weeks ago.. so let it slide.

In conclusion, thank you for writing this article. I think that it’s the right course of action to move Vasquez, if you can get a king’s ransom. I’d be happy w/ any of the options above. My favorite option would be Robles, but I just don’t think it can happen. If you disagree w/ the analysis or think I’m an idiot.. you’re probably correct.

By: Phillip C-137

Phillip C-137 — Wed, 11 Jul 2018 03:50:28 +0000

You’ve sold me. Let’s do it. But let’s do it right.