Will Matt Murray Experience RFA Madness?

We’re a shade over three weeks away from the opening night of the NHL and there’s currently a huge subset of players still without a contract. The Restricted Free Agent pool is as deep as it is talented, with a crop unlike one ever seen before. You could form two lines of an All-Star lineup out of:

• LW Kyle Connor, C Brayden Point, RW Patrick Laine, D Zack Werenski, D Ivan Provorov
• LW Matthew Tkachuk, C Travis Konecny, RW Miko Rantanen, D Charlie McAvoy, D Julius Honka

Every one of these guys, between the forward groups and the defensive groups, is waiting for the first domino to drop and set the bar. Most of these guys are going to change from ‘highly productive bargain’ to ‘highly productive cornerstone contract’ in a hurry. Their respective teams have had to reserve large chunks of cap space during the summer to anticipate these deals.

For instance, the Jets are sitting on $15M+ for Connor and Laine (which doesn’t seem like enough) and the Avalanche are sitting on $15M+, which sure is plenty. The Penguins have a mini-RFA issue of their own with D Marcus Pettersson in need of a contract and the Penguins in need of cap space, considering they have zero.

This all brings us around to Matt Murray. The Pens’ goalie is something of a lightning rod amongst the fanbase, as he’s had the grave misfortune of being the starter to follow beloved goalie Marc-Andre Fleury. Murray had a fairy tale start to his career, as he came in as a rookie to backstop the team to a Cup in 2016, then follow that up in 2017 with yet another Cup-winning run.

In that 2016-17 season when he was the primary starter and won a Cup, Murray started 49 games, had a .923 save percentage and had a +14.48 goals saved above average. Last year, while half the fanbase complained about his glove hand and wanted him traded, he had a .919 save percentage and had a +14.67 goals saved above average.

The moral of the story is that Matt Murray, who has had to deal with injuries and setbacks during his short career, is an above-average goalie that is an asset to the Penguins. He’s also an RFA next summer.

The 25-year old signed a 3-year bridge contract with a cap hit of $3.75M two seasons ago. The closest comparable to Matt Murray may be John Gibson of the Anaheim Ducks. Prior to the start of last season, the then-25 year old RFA Gibson signed an 8 year/$51.2M deal that has an average cap hit of $6.4M. However, he was coming off a bridge contract with a $2.3M cap hit. And although prior to last season he had a 7th place Vezina and three All-Star selections on his resume, he did not have two Stanley Cup rings on his fingers.

It’s very easy to presume that Matt Murray and his agent are using a baseline number of $7M/season for any extension talks, whether that is ongoing now or may occur next summer. Some of the fanbase may balk at that number, citing his various flaws whether real or perceived, but the truth of the matter is that the Penguins need Murray more than he needs them.

Casey DeSmith is an excellent backup to have around and is under contract for the next seasons at $1.25M/season, but he’s not a full-time starter. Tristan Jarry, with the signing of DeSmith’s deal, doesn’t appear to factor into the Penguins’ future plans anymore. Frankly, I’m surprised he’s still on the roster, in lieu of being packaged as a second piece in some trade this summer. So Matt Murray is the guy moving forward, as he should be.

The best thing for Marc-Andre Fleury’s legacy in Pittsburgh was being selected by the Golden Knights in the expansion draft. He’s now viewed as some sort of patron saint, when just a year or two prior many were trying to run him out of town for his playoff failures and less-than-spectacular regular seasons. For some, Matt Murray can never live up to him, even though he’s really good in his own right. He doesn’t have the sparkling personality of Fleury and isn’t the beloved teammate that entertained the whole team. But he’s a a goalie worthy to be made the long-term starter for the correct amount of money.

In some respects, I expect Murray’s next phase to mirror Gibson’s with respect to the overall team performance. The Ducks last year started a prolonged and presumably painful rebuilding process. The Ducks have no young, franchise building block on the team or in the pipeline, let alone a bunch of them. Their path back to Cup contention will be a long one. Most of Gibson’s 8 year deal will be consumed by the time they are a legitimate threat again.

For Murray, I predict the Penguins have this year and maybe, if I’m being generous, next year to be a Cup contender. And even that should be qualified as being in the playoffs and not on the short list to win it all. Most of Murray’s next potential contract with the team will be spent in the decline and eventual rebuild state.

But that cold hard currency spends whether you’re winning or losing. Murray deserves it and the Pens have a top end goalie in the prime of his career. You sign the contract when it’s time to sign the contract.