Women’s Basketball Bracketology – Updated Feb 15, 2016

A lot has shaken out as far as the NCAA Women’s Basketball selections over the last couple of weeks. You can see my previous two brackets here and here. Not much, however, has changed among local teams. The Dukes and West Virginia are still in the tournament, but neither has a ton of room for comfort.

Regarding the local teams…
Duquesne is currently in the field an on my 7 line. The problem with Duquesne is a “best win” problem. They don’t have a win over anyone assured in the field of 64 as of this writing, especially if St. John’s is upset in one of their last four games. They’re only ahead of 12 teams on my list, so it’s not like the Dukes are a lock should they finish 3-2 or worse.

WVU is squarely on the bubble and is much like Duquesne. Their best win is over #35 James Madison, nor have they beaten a solid NCAA team either. They’re likely one notch below Duquesne because of the Gonzaga loss.

Pitt and Penn State are rebuilding, and the NEC schools must win the NEC tourney.

Seeds (RPI). If no RPI is listed, that team is presumed to be a conference champion that would not make the tourney as an at-large.
1: UConn (2), Notre Dame (1), South Carolina (3), Baylor (4)
2: Maryland (11), Texas (7), Ohio State (5), Oregon State (8)
3: UCLA (9), Arizona St (10), Florida State (13), Stanford (6)
4: Louisville (18), Mississippi State (25), Florida (22), Texas A&M (15)
5: Kentucky (17), Oklahoma State (16), Tennessee (14), Syracuse (19)
6: DePaul (20), Washington (29), Georgia (27), Oklahoma (24)
7: Missouri (33), BYU (12), Seton Hall (34), Duquesne (21)
8: USC (39), St. John’s (42), George Washington (26), Michigan State (31)
9: West Virginia (37), Miami-Fl (30), Villanova (54), Indiana (47)
10: Auburn (50), Kansas State (48), Rutgers (41), Santa Clara (55)
11: UTEP, Penn, James Madison, Ohio
12: Green Bay, Florida Gulf Coast, Colorado St, Albany
13: Arkansas State, Cal Riverside, South Dakota St, Chattanooga
14: Missouri St, Abilene Christian, Bucknell, Belmont
15: Belmont, New Mexico State, Iona, UNC Asheville
16: Hampton, Montana St, Bryant, Texas Southern

Last four in
Santa Clara (55). The Broncos have one excellent win at #6 Stanford and no bad losses, but not a lot else. Reminiscent of the 2010-11 Dukes that won at Ohio State and were left as one of the First Four out.
Rutgers (41). Despite playing a hard schedule, the Scarlet Knights haven’t really beaten anyone outside Green Bay. They will likely need to win at least two of last four, but three of those games are at home.
Kansas State (48). K-State has two good wins over Oklahoma and Oklahoma State, both in the top 25. Only one non-top 100 loss, but was to #103 Iowa State.
Auburn (50). Despite two top 25 wins, Auburn’s road struggles against anyone in the top 100 hurts. They’re in for now, but in a very tough SEC could be left out quickly.

First four out
Purdue (58). Win over Dayton only halfway mitigated as Deane played but not Austria. They can easily play their way in with Iowa, Nebraska, and Rutgers – all bubble teams – all remaining on the schedule.
South Florida (43). As I’ve stated before, South Florida is a top 25 team in my opinion on talent. They’ll have a shot to play their way in still, but there’s limited chances in a down American Athletic Conference. They could really use Oklahoma St to keep winning and a win at Louisville.
Minnesota (81). Disregard the RPI and look a little closer. Their splits against top 25, 50, and 100 are solid. They’re 9-4 in Big 10 play with Allina Starr, an Auburn transfer, eligible.
Oregon (59). The Ducks have no losses outside the top 50 and have a big win at Washington. The home game against USC on Sunday will be huge to get a top 50 caliber win.

Next four out
Temple (63). Wins over #22 Florida and fellow bubble teams Villanova and South Florida help. They’ve struggled away from the Liacouras Center some, though.
Saint Bonaventure (40). Not enough quality wins.
Western Kentucky (49). Win over Louisville looking better and better…
Duke (52). Only one top 50 win in 10 chances.

Keep an eye on
Iowa
NC State
Saint Mary’s

Bids by conference
SEC – 9
ACC – 6
Pac 12 – 6
Big 12 – 5
Big 10 – 5
Big East – 4
Atlantic 10 – 2
West Coast – 2
American – 1