Comments on: 2017 Pirates’ Projected Roster And Payroll

By: Chris Hale

Chris Hale — Thu, 09 Mar 2017 17:46:50 +0000

Trade Bell. That would be foolish. No he’said not a good Defensive 1st basemen but he only switched to that position a couple years ago. This was drafted in the 2nd round because he was expected to go to college. He is a top 5 talent. He will never be a gold glove 1st basemen but he could be an average defender in time. This guy has all star upside and we have him on the cheap for several years. A small market team like the bucs don’t win by trading away young cheap high upside talent like bell. Please stop.

By: Kevin Creagh

Kevin Creagh — Mon, 17 Oct 2016 13:01:27 +0000

If the White Sox realize (correctly) that they need to rebuild, they do have a reason to trade him. He is extremely valuable and I did a trade proposal based on his surplus value:
https://thepointofpittsburgh.com/pirates-should-go-bold-and-trade-for-jose-quintana/

I don’t believe it would take the sheer volume of high end prospects you’re laying out. If I’m wrong, I’d be shocked and wouldn’t want to do it.

By: Kevin Creagh

Kevin Creagh — Mon, 17 Oct 2016 12:59:20 +0000

I agree with you that they preceded the bubble and will be post-bubble too. That’s why I’m keeping an eye on the Reds’ TV deal that they are re-negotiating this offseason.
We estimated the deals using this model:
https://thepointofpittsburgh.com/the-baseball-revolution-of-money-has-been-televised-a-look-at-local-tv-contracts/

By: Matt

Matt — Sun, 16 Oct 2016 04:55:37 +0000

I don’t believe the Pirates will ever get a TV deal worth fawning over. That time has clearly passed, as cable subscribers are fleeing en masse for streaming services and the like. The Pirates were very unfortunate to strike their current deal a couple years before the TV contracts exploded, and they’ll be on the wrong end of it again in 2 or 3 years because the cable dollars simply won’t be there. Their best bet in the long run is to join forces with the Penguins and try to start their own local channel. Even though that wouldn’t come with a huge dollar value, they would control all the revenue along with the hockey team. Time will tell, but it certainly sounds like the Pirates are bracing fans for a drop in payroll after the season they just had.

By: Jay

Jay — Sun, 16 Oct 2016 00:28:03 +0000

Stinkin’ autocorrect. Obviously I meant Quintana.

By: Jay

Jay — Sun, 16 Oct 2016 00:26:22 +0000

Folks, not to be a contractual but any Quinlan’s deal is going to start with Meadows or Newman and include the sort of pieces (Glasgow/Bell/Taillon — pick any 3 of the 5 and toss in another low-ceiling piece) that would set the organization back to 2011.

The ChiSox are dealing in a poor SP market. Quinlan’s has a great contract and Chicago has no real reason to trade him.

It is going to take a massive haul to pry him (or Archer) loose.

Think Ordorizzi or Smyly if you want to use Glasgow/Bell and spare parts.

My two cents.

By: Kevin Creagh

Kevin Creagh — Wed, 12 Oct 2016 13:49:29 +0000

Last year we forecast in October a $105M payroll and that was confirmed in December by Coonelly at Piratefest. They opened up with $99.9M, so there was some left on the table.

Agree about the local TV deal and that’s factored into the revenue calculations that we did a couple years ago. We wrote about local TV deals and created a model for what the next local deal would be for the Bucs. I’ll be watching the Reds to see how their upcoming deal does compared to this model.
https://thepointofpittsburgh.com/the-baseball-revolution-of-money-has-been-televised-a-look-at-local-tv-contracts/

By: Dave

Dave — Wed, 12 Oct 2016 02:32:27 +0000

One basic assumption that is forgotten by many is that while the national media dollars are there the local dollars rank near the bottom of the league and will until 2019-20 at the latest. Also how much was available at the start of the 2016 season? Have seen that $110 million was available but due to the jumps in the SP market wasn’t reached. If 2017’a budget is $110 then that is no increase at all.

By: Kevin Creagh

Kevin Creagh — Tue, 11 Oct 2016 19:01:47 +0000

We did a writeup on a potential Quintana trade, based on surplus value.
https://thepointofpittsburgh.com/pirates-should-go-bold-and-trade-for-jose-quintana/

I think you get it done with one of Bell or Glasnow, plus other secondary/tertiary parts.

By: Juan

Juan — Mon, 10 Oct 2016 17:54:19 +0000

Nice write up!

Quintana is an extremely valuable asset, and probably wouldn’t be that much less expensive than Sale. Maybe Bell + Glasnow would start the conversation, especially in the current SP market. I can’t see the Pirates trading for more than one starter, as they would most likely have to overpay in any SP trade. The only exception would be taking on salary to get an underachiever from a team looking to cut payroll (I like the idea of Scott Kazmir).

My guess is that they slightly overpay an average FA starter (Fister or Cashner or the like) and then cross their fingers that an internal option works out.