Elias Diaz Isn’t Really This Bad With The Bat
Elias Diaz made some cameo appearances with the Pirates in the 2015 and 2016 seasons, but he only had 6 (yes, 6) combined plate appearances in those two years. So let’s talk about three distinct data sets of Diaz: 2017 Diaz, 2018 Diaz, and 2019 Diaz.
2017 Elias Diaz
Two seasons ago, Diaz was being hyped up as the ‘catcher of the future’. When Francisco Cervelli went down for a prolonged period of time with a quad injury, groin injury, and a concussion, Diaz appeared in 64 games and 200 total plate appearances over the course of the season. The then-26 year old triple slashed .223/.265/.314 for a 51 wRC+ and purchased a ticket to Writeoffville on the Kevin Creagh Express. Via Statcast, this is what his spray chart of hits looked like in 2017:
That’s as uniform of a spray chart as you’re going to see. You want all-fields' Here you go. The little that he was hitting was coming at tepid rates of 86.3 mph exit velocity and a launch angle of just 6.2 degrees.
But the anemic bat wasn’t even compensated for with stunning defense. Per Fangraphs, he was a -3 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) and -9.4 Framing Runs. That’s really bad for not even half a season of work.
2018 Elias Diaz
In 2018, the catcher position was one of strength for the Pirates. A healthy Cervelli and Diaz combined for 4.4 fWAR on the season. The then 27-year old Diaz looked like he was on the verge of a breakout and his black hole bat evolved into one that a pitcher would have to take seriously. Diaz made a conscious effort to pull the ball more last year and it showed in his spray chart:
There is a distinct change in philosophy here, as every one of his home runs was either down the left line or into left-center. That pull-heavy approach applied to even his doubles, as well. The Statcast exit velocity jumped up to 89.6 mph and the launch angle increased to 10.4 degrees. His hard hit percentage increased from 36.4% to 40.5% in 2018. All indicators were pointing up, aside from his defense which was once again not good.
A .286/.339/.452 slash line (114 wRC+) was an amazing leap from the previous year and demonstrated that he could be a solid contributor moving forward.
The performance was so good that I even wrote an article saying that I was now a believer in Elias Diaz, after being a skeptic in his potential for many years.
2019 Elias Diaz
When it was announced in March that Elias Diaz would be placed on the IL with an illness/virus, my mind immediately went to mono. For a virus to sideline a professional baseball player and affect his Spring Training, it had to be something powerful. And one of mono’s after effects is that it weakens the host and saps their strength. None of this was ever stated, nor does it need to be, but I suspected this would be something that would linger over Diaz all season.
Unfortunately, it appears I was right. His triple slash line of .250/.303/.319 is atrocious. The 65 wRC+ is terrible, the isolated slugging percentage of .069 is the lowest of his three full seasons, and the -1.2 fWAR is the 5th lowest in all of MLB among players with at least 300 plate appearances.
Let’s take an extended gander at this season’s spray chart to date:
You can see that the majority of his hits are being pushed into right-center or right field, which indicates to me that he is lacking the strength and bat speed to pull the ball to his power zones like he did in 2018. This may also be an effect of the new pitching coaches, but this chart coupled with his virus points me in another direction.
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So what are we left with' This year, Jacob Stallings has become the in-fashion catcher for the Pirates and Elias Diaz is basically the other girl in that famous meme of the boyfriend ogling a girl walking past him. But Stallings also has the feel of a solid backup, not a majority time starter.
The Pirates need to seek out an upgrade at the catcher position this offseason. They can’t just hope that Diaz’s bat rebounds after he fully recovers from this season. Because even if his bat comes back, his poor framing skills will remain. That’s a learned skill, so maybe they can send him to framing boot camp this offseason. But moving forward, it is very easy to see the Pirates bringing in a starter, going with Stallings as the backup, and moving on from Diaz.
Kevin Creagh
Nerd engineer by day, nerd writer at night. Kevin is the co-founder of The Point of Pittsburgh. He is the author of Creating Christ, a sci-fi novel available on Amazon.
It’s very hard to say, as you have mentioned on more than one occasion, just how much of an effect his illness this pre-season has had on Diaz’ offense.
If he does go to framing boot-camp, hopefully it isn’t the one he attended previously, which must have been run by Ryan Doumit.
I am surprised that he has been a poor defensive catcher all three years in the majors. I seem to recall good comments about his defense as he was advancing through the minors. Is most of this poor performance due to poor pitch framing. I seem to recall a number of bad throws with his supposed “cannon arm”. I also get the feeling watching him that he makes a lot of mental errors. Brault seems to think he calls a good game, however I have not heard such comments from other pitchers. If he is lacking in the play calling area perhaps it is showing up in performance of some of the pitchers.
Another good article and follow up to the Aug 28th article.
Looking at the Catcher position, what do we want? Is it superior pitch framing and defense? Is it average framing and defense along with above average offensive production? All of these play a part and are on a sliding scale. For 2019 Diaz it’s been below average framing, defense and production and that’s intolerable.
Diaz will always be a bat first catcher, but that’ll never be enough to offset his poor D. So, I agree, it’s time to move on, but despite this obvious and easy upgrade (however slight it may be) we may be making these same observations in 2020.
For me, I want a defensive stalwart at catcher who isn’t a complete zero with the bat. In essence, Stallings this year is the baseline of what I would want as a catcher — good framing numbers, calls a good game, keeps base stealers honest, not a black hole with the bat.
John Sickels scouts Elias Diaz https://www.minorleagueball.com/2017/5/2/15514792/elias-diaz-c-pittsburgh-pirates