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Examining Past Extensions to Forecast Taillon’s Future

Could Jameson Taillon be the next young Pirate to lock up an extension? Photo from Jon Durr/Getty Images

The acrimonious relationship between owners and the union has been covered, covered again, and then reiterated, just in case anyone missed it.

The ripple effects from the hard feelings have time to be completely realized, as the current CBA doesn’t expire until December 1, 2021; however, some are already speculating that players may be more likely to cash in as soon as possible to avoid testing the uncertain free agency market.

This is on the heels of extensions for Aaron Nola, Jorge Polanco, Max Kepler, and Luis Severino, with each deal potentially buying out multiple free agent seasons.

This begs the question, are any Pirates likely to follow suit?

I’ve already painted the picture of the Pirates’ upcoming uncertain arbitration landscape and how they would probably prefer to clear some of that up. I personally pegged Jameson Taillon as the most likely extension candidate; however, after his recent comments at PiratesFest, I’m not nearly as convinced that this could happen.

According to Bill Brink, Taillon claimed that “[t]he game is built on free agency, and if these guys aren’t getting rewarded, something has to change. I don’t know what.” Taillon added that players are “pretty riled up and pretty upset,” and insinuated that more players might have to go arbitration instead of accepting extensions.

These comments could be ominous for the Pirates chances of locking up Taillon, but what may it take for the team to get a deal done? When may it happen? What’s the historical precedent for these kinds of deals?

I decided to look at past extensions handed out by Neal Huntington. Since September 2007, I counted 11 extensions given out by the general manager to buy out at least one league minimum year or three years of arbitration—weeding out extensions buying out late arbitration years (Charlie Morton) or just free agency years (Francisco Cervelli). The following is a breakdown of when the deals were signed, how much they were for, how much control the extensions bought out, the age of the player when the deal was signed, as well as what it may mean for Taillon.

Ian Snell

Signed 3/16/08

3 Years/$8.6M ($6.75M 2011 Option, $9.25M 2012 Option) – Age 26 to 28 seasons

Bought out one minimum year and two arbitration years. Options would have covered final arbitration year and one free agent year.

Traded in 2009

Matt Capps

Signed 4/4/08

2 Years/$3.05M – Age 24 to 25 seasons

Bought out one minimum year and one arbitration year.

Non-tendered after 2009

Ryan Doumit

Signed 12/22/08

3 Years/$11.5M ($7.25M 2012 Option, $8.25M 2013 Option if 2012 Option exercised) – Age 28 to 30 seasons

Bought out three arbitration years. Options would have covered two free agent years.

Declined 2012 Option

Paul Maholm

Signed 1/30/09

3 Years/$14.5M ($9.75M 2012 Option) – Age 27 to 29 seasons

Bought out three arbitration years. Option would have covered one free agent year.

Declined 2012 Option

Nate McLouth

Signed 2/17/09

3 Years/$15.75M ($10.65M 2012 Option) – Age 27 to 29 seasons

Bought out three arbitration years. Option would have covered one free agent year.

Traded in 2009

Jose Tabata

Signed 8/21/11

6 Years/$15.0M ($6.5M 2017 Option, $7.5M 2018 Option, $8.5M 2019 Option) – Age 22 to 27 seasons

Bought out three minimum years and three arbitration years. Options would have covered three free agent years.

Traded 2015

Andrew McCutchen

Signed 3/6/12

6 Years/$51.5M ($14.75M 2018 Option) – Age 25 to 30 seasons

Bought out one minimum year, three arbitration years, and two free agent years. Option would have covered one additional free agent year.

2018 Option picked up, subsequently traded before season

Starling Marte

Signed 3/27/14

6 Years/$31.0M ($11.5M 2020 Option, $12.5M 2021 Option) – Age 25 to 30 seasons

Bought out two minimum years, three arbitration years, and one free agent year. Options could cover 2 additional free agent years.

Josh Harrison

Signed 4/8/15

4 Years/$27.3M ($10.5M 2019 Option, $11.5M 2020 Option) – Age 27 to 30 seasons

Bought out three arbitration years and one free agent year. Options would have covered 2 additional free agent years. (While the deal covered the 2015 season, Harrison’s agreed upon arbitration salary did not change.)

Declined 2019 Option

Gregory Polanco

Signed 4/5/16 (Started 2017 season)

5 Years/$35.0M ($12.5M 2022 Option, $13.5M 2023 Option) – Age 25 to 29 seasons

Bought out one minimum year, three arbitration years, and one free agent year. Options could cover two additional free agent years.

Felipe Vázquez

Signed 1/18/18

4 Years/$22.0M ($10.0M 2022 Option, $10.0M 2023 Option) – Age 26 to 29 seasons

Bought out one minimum year and three arbitration years. Options could cover two additional free agent years.

*****

Sure, part of this was meant as a trip down transaction memory lane, which I always enjoy, but how does it apply to Taillon?

Seven of the deals were signed at dates later than this, so that means there is still time to come to an agreement before the season starts.

All but one of the deals—Polanco’s—went into effect the season in which the deal was signed, so it’s safe to assume that if Taillon signed soon the contract would start in 2019.

Four of the deals went to pitchers, but there aren’t really any comparable in the bunch. Maholm’s deal covered his three arbitration years and he was the same age as Taillon, but no minimum years were included, and it was so long ago that the money is apples and oranges. Vázquez’s deal bought out the same amount of years of control Taillon has remaining, but as a starter I don’t see him settling for a $5.5M AAV when Nola just agreed to an AAV of $11.25M.

This is Taillon’s age 27 season, so as of right now, he would be hitting free agency for his age 31 season. Despite the two years age difference at the time of signing, I think McCutchen’s deal is probably the closest comp we have from the list above. At the time he signed, McCutchen had 2.123 years of service, while Taillon currently has 2.109. McCutchen was the young, up-and-coming player on the team at that time—much like Taillon is now—having made the All-Star Team in 2011. The comparisons aren’t exact, but the $8.58M AAV seems much closer to what it would take to lock up Taillon right now, especially considering his recent comments.

Honestly, I am not comfortable pinning down an estimate for a Taillon extension now; we have no idea if he would even sign a commensurate deal if offered. It’s certainly something to keep an eye on as the season approaches, however.

Ethan is a Pirates contributor to The Point of Pittsburgh. An Accountant by trade, Ethan is passionate about the business of sports and won't apologize for enjoying it more than the actual games. He's a believer in analytics, hasn't played a game since little league, and can be contacted via Twitter @EthanHullihen

3 Comments on Examining Past Extensions to Forecast Taillon’s Future

  1. I would love nothing more than to see Taillon get an extension but it would probably have to be on the high side to get him to sign, not just because of his recent comments but also because he still lives in The Woodlands north of Houston where he grew up and seems to like it. The Astros look to be perennial contenders and I wouldn’t be surprised if he has his eye on signing there when he becomes a free agent. Of course he would have to be really confident he could stay healthy and pitching well until he was 31 to wait for that.

  2. I wonder how many (if any) of the extensions you talk about earlier have lockout protection/front-loading/”swell-outs”? I think the next CBA has the very strong possibility of leading to a significant labor stoppage. If clubs and players are signing extensions which make accommodations for that, I can see an extension for Taillon

    • Kevin Creagh // February 20, 2019 at 8:36 AM // Reply

      Certainly feels like a labor war is brewing that will jeopardize ’22 season. Seems like Taillon is adamant to support free agent rights, though.

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