The reason why I haven’t updated the bracketology is because not much changed during the conference tournaments. There were very few upsets as a whole, both on the bubble and among the top teams. The top seven conferences all saw their favorites win the tourney and very few bubble teams improved or fell apart.
Regarding the local flavor…
I have Robert Morris as a 16 seed after winning the NEC. West Virginia should be around a 5, and the Dukes around an 8.
Below are my listings as to how I think things will shape out. Once again, I must note: These rankings are what I expect the committee to do. These are NOT what I would do if I were a member of the committee. For example, “Power Five” schools like NC State and Kansas State that finish in the RPI top 50 have high probabilities of bids, even with the lack of wins on their resumes (only four top 100 wins for both schools). I would likely pass over them for a team like Princeton who had four top 100 wins but quite a few less opportunities in the Ivy League.
1. UConn, Notre Dame, South Carolina, Baylor
2. Oregon St, Texas, Maryland, Ohio St
3. Kentucky, UCLA, Arizona St, Syracuse
4. Louisville, Texas A&M, Stanford, DePaul
—First two rounds at home break line—
5. Mississippi St, West Virginia, Florida, Florida St
6. Oklahoma, Miami, Tennessee, Michigan St
7. Oklahoma St, BYU, George Washington, Georgia
8. Duquesne, St John’s, Seton Hall, Washington
9. South Florida, Missouri, Auburn, Purdue
10. Indiana, Green Bay, St Bonaventure, Kansas St
11. NC State || CUT LINE FOR AT-LARGE CANDIDATES || Colorado St, Penn, James Madison
12. Middle Tenn St, South Dakota St, Chattanooga, San Francisco
13. Buffalo, Belmont, Albany, Army
14. Missouri St, Idaho, NM St, Iona
15. Central Arkansas, Hawaii, Jacksonville, Troy
16. UNC-Asheville, Robert Morris, NC A&T, Alabama St
Last four in: NC St, Kansas St, St Bonaventure, Indiana.
First four out: Princeton, Villanova, Florida Gulf Coast, Iowa
Next three out: Temple, Duke, St Louis