Pirates’ April K Rate Portends Season Long Issue

Heading into Tuesday night’s game, the Pirates had the 3rd highest team strikeout rate in the Majors at 23.5%, trailing only the Orioles (23.6%) and Astros (25.8%). Through the first 13 games, the Pirates have had at least seven strikeouts in 9 games, with double digits K’s in 7 of those. Although the Pirates have quieted the whiff rate down somewhat in recent games, the numbers are the numbers.

But how much of this is early season noise and how much is a sign of a season-long issue? Let’s look at the past five seasons to examine how teams with the three worst season K rates fared in the month of April.

YEAR	TEAM	TEAM	TEAM
2014	Cubs	Astros	Marlins
	24.2%	23.8%	22.9%
	APR TEAM 1	APR TEAM 2	APR TEAM 3
	Astros	Braves	Cubs
	24.5%	24.3%	24.3%

Last year the Cubs and Astros finished 1-2 at the end of the season and both were in the top 3 at the end of April. The Marlins finished the season in 3rd, but started the season with the 6th worst K rate in April. In contrast, the Braves had the 2nd worst April strikeout rate and finished the season with the 4th worst.

YEAR	TEAM	TEAM	TEAM
2013	Astros	Twins	Braves
	25.5%	23.0%	22.6%
	APR TEAM 1	APR TEAM 2	APR TEAM 3
	Astros	Braves	White Sox
	26.3%	25.1%	24.0%

In 2013, the Astros and Braves both were in the top 3 of whiff rate at the end of the season and in April. The Twins finished the season 2nd worst after having just the 18th worst rate in April. The White Sox were in the top 3 in April, but finished the end of the season with the 14th highest rate (19.9%) so they improved quite a bit over the course of the season.

YEAR	TEAM	TEAM	TEAM
2012	Astros	Pirates	Athletics
	22.7%	22.5%	22.4%
	APR TEAM 1	APR TEAM 2	APR TEAM 3
	Mets	Diamondbacks	Padres
	22.1%	22.0%	21.7%

This year, none of the three teams that finished the season in the top (bottom, I suppose) 3 of K rate were in the top 3 during the month of April. The Astros (20.2%) were 11th in April, the Pirates (21.3%) were 6th, and the Athletics (18.9%) were 20th in the opening month. After a rough April, the Mets/Diamondbacks/Padres all stepped up their game and finished 10th and lower at the end of 2012.

YEAR	TEAM	TEAM	TEAM
2011	Padres	Nationals	Pirates
	21.7%	21.7%	21.6%
	APR TEAM 1	APR TEAM 2	APR TEAM 3
	Pirates	Padres	Rockies
	22.5%	22.1%	20.8%

OK, back to normalcy. The Pirates and Padres got off poorly in April and it carried through the whole season. The Nationals were 2nd worst at the end of the year, but started April (19.4%) in 12th. The Rockies finished the 2011 campaign in 12th at 19.1%.

YEAR	TEAM	TEAM	TEAM
2010	Diamondbacks	Marlins	Rays
	24.7%	22.2%	20.6%
	APR TEAM 1	APR TEAM 2	APR TEAM 3
	Blue Jays	Diamondbacks	Padres
	22.7%	22.5%	20.8%

The Diamondbacks were the only top 3 team in April K rate to finish in that tier at the end of the season. The Marlins (20.3%) were in 6th at the end of April, while the Rays (19.1%) were 11th. The Blue Jays and Padres both improved to a 12th place tie (19.2%) by the end of 2010.

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So in the past five seasons, at least one team that had one of the three worst strikeout rates in April finished the season in the top three, expect for that oddball 2012 season. In three seasons, two teams in April finished among the three worst at the end of the season.

But should Pirate fans, specifically, be worried? One of the worst offenders early on has been Starling Marte (34.7%), but his career strikeout rate is “only” 25.0%. He’s also been getting white-hot at the plate, so perhaps his early season impression of a wind farm is over. Francisco Cervelli (27.0%) is well above his 17.6% career rate. Gregory Polanco’s 32.7% is higher than the 18.9% rate he had in 312 debut at-bats last year. It would seem as if the Pirates’ strikeout rate will settle down with some positive regression from these players, especially since there aren’t many Pirates well below their career averages, except Mercer (9.5% this year, 16.4% career).

 

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