Simulating The Pirates 2019 Season

Aaaand we’re off.

The regular season is finally here and it’s already off to a wild start. Starling Marte was scratched from game 1 shortly after news broke that Lonnie Chisenhall would start the year on the IL with a broken hand. J.B. Shuck and Melky Cabrera weren’t exactly what we all expected, but that’s baseball. Things that can happen, will happen. For good and for bad.

While we can’t know what things will happen until they actually do happen, we can play pretend using OOTP. Out of the Park Baseball is a text-based baseball simulation game that is perfect for any baseball nerd. Basically, the game engine runs based on the ZiPS projection system, which allows for a realistic year-over-year progression. You have the ability to create multiple leagues, create one league, create a league consisting of historical players, fictional players, basically, you are the baseball God. Whatever you want, you get.

What I want to know is whether or not the Pirates will make the playoffs. So let’s get to it.

I’m going to run five different simulations and see where the Pirates end up, and I’ll also note any interesting moves made along the way. The moves won’t be totally realistic because the game doesn’t have any context for the players on the roster. To the game, Jordan Lyles isn’t really a viable 5th starter. We know that isn’t technically true, and even if it is true, he’s still the Pirates 5th starter for now. Overall, the AI does a fine enough job keeping things organized and well put together. And for you big time skeptics out there, the game even has owner traits:

So lets get right into it.

Simulation 1:

Record: 89-73 (NL Central Champions)

All-Star Players

• Felipe Vazquez
• Corey Dickerson
• Francisco Cervelli

Notable Stats

• Gregory Polanco finished the season with a 1.1 WAR thanks to a .208 batting average.
• Cole Tucker had a 3.8 WAR season in AAA.

Notable Moves

• Kevin Kramer traded to the White Sox for Evan Marshall and Jake Burger
• (Around the league) Craig Kimbrel signed with the Rockies on 6/21 for $6M. Keuchel signed with the Phillies on 4/6 for $5M.

Simulation 2:

Record: 71-91

All-Star Players

• Colin Moran

Notable Stats

• Colin Moran, Corey Dickerson, and Josh Bell each put up 3.5 WAR over a full season.
• (Around the league) Juan Soto won NL MVP. David Dahl hit 41 HR.

Notable Moves

• Lonnie Chisenhall and Adrian Mendez were traded to the White Sox for Wilber Sanchez and Codi Heuer
• The Pirates claimed Aledmys Diaz off of waivers on 7/12
• (Around the league) Craig Kimbrel signed with the Yankees on 5/8 for $13.6M. Keuchel signed with the Cardinals on 5/17 for $23M.

What went right:

The offense had 5 players with over 3.5 WAR.

What went wrong:

They couldn’t stay healthy! The pitching was pretty bad. No starter had an ERA under 4, and Taillon’s was above 5.

Simulation 3:

Record: 77-85

All-Star Players

• Adam Frazier
• Starling Marte

Notable Stats

• Adam Frazier had a 5.0 WAR season thanks to a .391 OBP.
• (Around the league) Garret Hampson had 69 SB.

Notable Moves

• Jose Reyes signed a minor league contract with the Pirates on 3/31, DFA’d on 7/22.
• (Around the league) Craig Kimbrel signed with the Yankees on 7/11 for $10.4M. Keuchel signed with the Phillies on 4/6 for $5.4M.

What went right:

The offense was pretty productive, when healthy. Too bad they couldn’t stay healthy. Josh Bell had a very good year.

What went wrong:

The bullpen was terrible. Vazquez and Kela both had ERA’s over 4.

Simulation 4:

Record: 69-93

All-Star Players

• Francisco Cervelli

Notable Stats

• Josh Bell had a 5.0 WAR season thanks to a .387 OBP and 25 HR season.
• Archer and Musgrove combined for 7.2 WAR
• (Around the league) Vlad Guerrero Jr. led the AL in BA with .353. Christian Yelich had a 10.6 WAR season. Billy Hamilton had 81 steals.

Notable Moves

• Francisco Cervelli was traded to the Angels on 7/11 for Jaime Barria, Tim Millard, and Julian Leon.
• Lonnie Chisenhall was traded to Miami on 7/25 for JT Riddle and Kobie Taylor.

What went right:

Love the production out of Bell. Archer and Musgrove stepped up.

What went wrong:

Jameson Taillon – Tommy John surgery. Trevor Williams – torn labrum. Good thing this is only a simulation.

Simulation 5:

Record: 82-80

All-Star Players

• Felipe Vazquez
• Corey Dickerson
• Starling Marte

Notable Stats

• Josh Bell once again had a productive year putting up a 3.2 WAR. Marte put up a 4.5 WAR and hit over .300.
• Jameson Taillon threw 224 innings.
• Felipe Vazquez led the league in saves with 46.
• (Around the league) Mike Trout had a 13.0 WAR season. Adalberto Mondesi had 85 SB.

Notable Moves

• Jameson Taillon signed a 5-year contract extension on 6/13 for $43.2M .
• Lonnie Chisenhall was traded to Miami on 7/25 for JT Riddle and Kobie Taylor.

What went right:

The Pirates had a good year. There isn’t much to complain about.

What went wrong:

The division was just too good to overcome. The Brewers won the division with a 94-68 record. The Cubs won a wild card spot with an 88-74 record.

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So, after 5 simulations, you have 1 playoff team, 2 abysmal seasons, and 2 close to .500 seasons. That sounds about exactly what you’d expect out of the Pirates.

A few interesting things from the sims were that, unsurprisingly, the Pirates found a new SS option by midseason. Whether it was Jose Reyes, Adeiny Hechavarria, or someone else, the Pirates always found someone else.

Non-Pirates related, Keuchel was consistently signed before June. Kimbrel had to wait a bit longer, but he was typically signed before the end of July.

The best performing prospect was almost always Cole Tucker, while Mitch Keller struggled in basically every simulation.

These are just simulations, but it is pretty cool how consistent the game engine is with some of the opinions at TPOP. As previously mentioned, The Pirates Will Have A New Shortstop By Memorial Day. They’ll also have to rely heavily on Josh Bell Being The Most Important Pirate In 2019. I didn’t mention it, because I manually adjusted it, but the AI consistently forced the Pirates into using an opener with Liriano.

Even though we know 5 different possible outcomes of the Pirates 2019 season, the real game isn’t played in code. The real game is finally back, though. Let’s enjoy the ride, because none of us know which way we are heading.