The Value of Blowing It Up Now

Let’s be clear. The Pirates aren’t already rebuilding, but they should be. The team they have lacks in star power and overall pitching to contend. I don’t know if they’re as bad as their current record indicates, but the roster as currently composed won’t likely do more than just miss out on the second wildcard barring a lot of surprises.

Of course, this piece isn’t about what those surprises might be. It’s about throwing in the towel. I don’t think the Pirates should approach the deadline with a fire sale mentality, but they should be looking to move almost anyone for the right package. If other teams know the Pirates want to dump players, buyers won’t offer as great a return. I hope Neal Huntington has dished out the “we’re close” mumbo jumbo I’ve heard just to throw off GM’s thinking the Bucs will make for an easily exploitable trade partner as they look to shed salary. The rebuild should be about rebuilding. If they can’t get the deal they want, they shouldn’t settle especially with players who have significant control.

I’d place potential trade chips into four categories: near untouchables, tradeable and controllable, should sell, and “we’ll also give you Oneil Cruz to take him.” The near untouchables are position players and starting pitchers still in their pre-arb years. They’ll likely be around long enough at a cost controlled price to contribute to a winner. Tradeable and controllable are players who have signed an extension or have some time left under arbitration. Should sell speaks for itself, these are short term players who have no chance of competing in another window. You can ask Reese McGuire what the final category is all about. I’ll have a look at who is in each of these categories and their potential trade return.

Near Untouchables

This is a pretty long list and while these players likely would yield a solid haul, most haven’t established enough track record or shown well enough at the major league level to merit a max return. This group includes Austin Meadows, Jameson Taillon, Kyle Crick, Josh Bell and a number of others who have not yet reached arbitration. If a rebuild takes 3-5 years, all of them could be part of future success. Note I’d only call them near untouchable because I’d trade any of them for the right deal. Here’s something to keep in mind. Pre-arb years really escalate trade value pretty dramatically.

Take Atlanta for example. They won their division in 2013, fell off in 2014 and tanked completely in 2015. A couple of their pre-arb players on their 2013 team are still around, Freddie Freeman and Julio Teheran, but a few were used as chips for trades. They moved Evan Gattis to Houston and Andrelton Simmons to the Angels and parlayed them into two of their better pitchers this season (Mike Foltynewicz and Sean Newcomb, respectively). Craig Kimbrell was Arb1 when they moved him to San Diego. If the Pirates want to rebuild and rebuild quickly they’ll need to keep the best of their core, but move some pieces as well. This probably means Meadows is truly untouchable as his six years of control give him a buffer if the rebuild goes a little long. He, Crick, Colin Moran and Nick Kingham don’t really have an easy to determine trade value either.

If Taillon isn’t an extension candidate he should become a trade candidate. Assuming he can average 2.7 wins per year during his remaining four seasons of control with $8.5 million per WAR, Taillon would yield a surplus value of $91 million in the offseason. That equates to one of the best prospects in baseball or five mediocre major league ready ones. Pitchers like Joe Musgrove and Trevor Williams could interest club looking for a controllable final piece to their rotation. Assuming each can average 1.5 WAR over the next four years, they would merit a surplus value of roughly $34.2 million or a pitcher in the 26-50 range. There would be risk, but the Pirates would likely get a shot at a player with more upside than the pitcher they’d give up. I wouldn’t trade Bell low, but he could be a candidate to move particularly if he rebounds next season.

Worth noting, I would wait to move any of these players until the offseason.

Tradeable and Controllable

This group could be around for a few more years, have the potential to make useful contributions to a winning team again, but likely have better value for the Pirates as a trade chip. Really only two players fit here — Starling Marte and Felipe Vazquez. Any rebuild would have to go perfectly for Marte to play for a winner in Pittsburgh again. At a $52 million potential surplus value (average of 3 WAR per season), he’d return all but the best pitching prospect and a little more.

Unless things go terribly, Vazquez should absolutely fill an important role on the Pirates next competitive squad, but as others have noted and I’ve harped for a long time, closers aren’t a necessity for rebuilding teams. All of my surplus values skew a touch conservative, but I’ve gone extra conservative on Vasquez. I put him at 2 WAR per year putting his surplus value slighting behind Marte’s. Its possible and maybe likely that he could command more, but writers who believe he would merit a franchise changing return likely have exaggerated his worth. Don’t get me wrong, he’d bring back serious value, but in my estimation Taillon and Marte would yield more. The league does tend to overvalue star relievers this time of year, so it wouldn’t be absurd for him to generate a larger return. That said, he could bring a couple of prospects in the middle to back end of the top 100.

Should Sell

Most of the Pirates players fit into this or into the near untouchable category. Only two are true holdovers from the previous window, Jordy Mercer and Francisco Cervelli. Mercer is months from free agency and the Pirates have used much of his trade value on the field. He could yield a C prospect without the Pirates retaining any of his salary. Cervelli has a fairly team friendly year and a third of control left and brings a great attitude to the club house. I put his surplus value around 7 million. He won’t bring a top 100 talent, but he could nab a B or B- prospect on the major league doorstep. Jason Rollison noted that the Pirates have interest in Darwinson Hernandez in the Red Sox organization. That’s probably a little low straight up, but a C prospect as a throw in pretty much does it.

The rest of the players the Pirates should sell are patches they’ve added to fill various holes. There wasn’t a market for Corey Dickerson in the offseason, but I suspect that will change. He’s performed well and would give a team a potentially average two year solution in the corner outfield. I’d project a slightly higher return than for Cervelli. Ivan Nova came in at the 2016 trade deadline to replace Francisco Liriano and stuck around after resigning a team friendly deal as a free agent. He’s having a year barely above replacement, but I would put his trade value at around $5 million. Of the cheap, available starters on the market, he might outshine the rest. David Freese would likely bring a return similar to Mercer.

“We’ll also give you Oneil Cruz to take him.”

You can call this the bad contract club but unlike most teams trying to hang onto fantasies of competing for too long, the Pirates have only two guys who fit into this category. Kevin profiled Josh Harrison’s situation earlier this week. I don’t need to belabor the point. He also looked at Gregory Polanco’s. Again, no need reinvent the wheel when you can refresh your memory with a click. Like Kevin, I would trade Harrison in a heartbeat and eat his contract just to clear some roster space and playing time for someone like Kevin Kramer. Of course, with no takers even with the Bucs eating a substantial part of his salary, I’d hang onto him and hope he rebounds next year. As for Polanco, I would rather hang onto him than sell this low. He is controlled long enough to potentially open the next window. While the dream has faded fast, I’d rather see the Pirates risk eating his contract than risk watching him finally put it together for someone else.

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If Neal Huntington doesn’t take the opportunity to rebuild now, I’m not sure he’ll actually get the chance at a second window. Usually GM’s are reluctant to take on a second rebuild, because of optics. In regards to baseball in Pittsburgh, I’d ask “what optics?” It can’t get much worse than it already is.

The Pirates likely won’t compete as currently composed, but still have assets to make a true rebuild a relatively short one. Of course, they still have enough assets to cloud the need to regroup. They have a handful of players who could serve as building blocks for next the core already in place either at the major league level or in Indianapolis. Taillon, Marte and Vazquez could bring a massive chunk with Taillon offering a path to the missing star power. Other veterans could bring additional modest and useful chips to supplement the core if management sells at this deadline. It’s important to acknowledge that value will deplete rapidly for anyone who the Pirates decide to keep and while they shouldn’t be singing that they’re sellers from the mountain tops, they should absolutely approach this deadline and offseason as if they are.