2015 National League Playoff Race — Part 1

With the advent of July, we’re now into the second half of the baseball season. At this point, sample sizes are no longer small and trendlines have been established. Things are starting to come into focus on who is a playoff contender and who should be getting ready for 2016. A good baseline in recent years for a Wild Card spot has been 89 wins — some years it may take a game or two more, other years the second team has been a game or two less, but 89 is a goal.

This first part of the two part series will look at the teams that do not realistically have a chance at the playoffs. Each team is listed with how I thought they would do in the preseason in terms of contenders or pretenders (no chance, outside looking in, playoff contender, division title). What I’ll do with them is look at what players they may be interested in trading and which of those players could fit the Pirates’ needs (spoiler – the Pirates will be in the second part of this as a playoff contender).

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES (28-56)

PRE-SEASON CATEGORY — No chance

RECORD NEEDED TO GET 89 WINS — (61-17, .725 win%)

PLAYERS THEY COULD TRADE — The Phillies consider 3B Maikel Franco a building block, but other than him every other player should be on the table for the rebuilding Phillies. LHP Cole Hamels and RP Jonathan Papelbon are the two that will garner the most interest, but OF Ben Revere and RHP Aaron Harang will have their suitors, too.

PLAYERS THE PIRATES COULD BE INTERESTED IN — Obviously, Hamels would look great in the Pirates’ rotation, but the Phillies would have to kick in some cash to pay down his $22.5M salary for the next four years. Papelbon would help lengthen the Pirates’ bullpen, but his personality may not be conducive to what the Pirates like to foster in their clubhouse. Harang’s salary ($2.5M remaining, FA at end of season) would appeal to the Bucs, but I would like to think they can aim higher than him.

MIAMI MARLINS (35-48)

PRE-SEASON PREDICTION — Playoff contender

RECORD NEEDED TO GET 89 WINS — (54-25, .683 win%)

PLAYERS THEY COULD TRADE — This was not how the 2015 season was supposed to go for the Marlins, but here we are and they’re terrible. There aren’t a lot of soon-to-be free agents and the Marlins don’t need to do a huge rebuild. Maybe someone will be interested in 3B Martin Prado or 1B Mike Morse; perhaps a team will take a flier on RHP Dan Haren, RHP Tom Koehler or RHP Mat Latos.

PLAYERS THE PIRATES COULD BE INTERESTED IN — It’s hard to see the Marlins moving RP A.J. Ramos or Sam Dyson, as they’re young and affordable. Other than that, I don’t see a match here.

MILWAUKEE BREWERS (36-48)

PRE-SEASON PREDICTION — Outside looking in

RECORD NEEDED TO GET 89 WINS — (53-25, .679 win%)

PLAYERS THEY COULD TRADE — Much like the Phillies, it’s time for the Brewers to accept that they need a full-scale rebuild. There’s no sense holding on to a highly desirous asset like C Jonathan Lucroy (team control through 2017 on a club option) when he won’t be around for the next winning Brewers team and can return a key bounty for their rebuild. OF Carlos Gomez is cheaply controlled ($9M in 2016) and will be a popular trade target, as will 1B Adam Lind for a team looking for a power-hitting, lefty first baseman. OF Gerardo Parra is almost assuredly on the move.

The Brewers will try to salary dump RHP Matt Garza ($12.5M/yr through 2017) and RHP Kyle Lohse ($5.5M remaining, FA end of year). Maybe some team will want 3B Aramis Ramirez as a bench bat or DH in the AL. Basically, whatever isn’t bolted down should be dealt. There are no impact players waiting to come up from the minors, either.

PLAYERS THE PIRATES COULD BE INTERESTED IN — RP Francisco Rodriguez has a salary that may be complicated ($7.5M in 2016, $2M buyout for 2017) and may not be a model citizen in the clubhouse, either. I would love to see the Pirates be bold and bring in 1B Adam Lind, but in essence that would force them to trade off Pedro Alvarez — which isn’t the worst thing in the world, but would be a bold move this front office hasn’t demonstrated to date. Parra would be a good fit as a part-starter/4th OF. Lefty reliever Will Smith has four additional years of control after 2015 so he would be costly, but his strikeout rate (12.00 K/9) makes the Pirates’ front office drool.

COLORADO ROCKIES (35-47)

PRE-SEASON PREDICTION — No chance

RECORD NEEDED TO GET 89 WINS — (54-26, .675 win%)

PLAYERS THEY COULD TRADE — They should be looking to move SS Troy Tulowitzki and OF Carlos Gonzalez in an effort to get their onerous long-term contracts off the books. As is the case with the majority of their franchise history, the Rockies have no good starting pitchers, but reliever Rafael Betancourt may interest a team that can see past his 6.00 ERA and look at his excellent peripherals (9.43 K/9, 1.29 BB/9, 2.68 FIP).

PLAYERS THE PIRATES COULD BE INTERESTED IN — I think Betancourt, even at age 40, would make a good addition to the bullpen as either a co-closer or co-setup man.

CINCINNATI REDS (36-44)

PRE-SEASON PREDICTION — No chance

RECORD NEEDED TO GET 89 WINS — (53-29, .646 win%)

PLAYERS THEY COULD TRADE — As detailed in the ‘What Would It Take To Get Cueto and Chapman‘ article, the Reds are in dire need of accepting the need for a full-on rebuild. 2B Brandon Phillips ($6M remaining, $13M in 2016, $14M in 2017) would need some serious salary relief, but could interest a contender. OF Jay Bruce is still under control in 2016 at $12.5M and could benefit from a change of scenery. 3B Todd Frazier has two years of team control after 2015 and would appeal to nearly every team in contention. RHP Mike Leake is a free agent-to-be and having a very good year.

But the two key trade chips are RHP Johnny Cueto and reliever Aroldis Chapman, who is under team control in 2016. These two could fetch a decent package of players that would help kickstart the Reds’ moribund farm system and allow them to rebuild during a time period where the Cardinals/Pirates/Cubs are significantly more talented than they are.

PLAYERS THE PIRATES COULD BE INTERESTED IN — As the article stated, Cueto and Chapman would look great in black and gold, but it’s not a likely outcome. It would be great to get Todd Frazier, solely so that he would no longer torture the Pirates every time they play the Reds.

SAN DIEGO PADRES (39-45)

PRE-SEASON PREDICTION — Playoff contender

RECORD NEEDED TO GET 89 WINS — (50-28, .641 win%)

PLAYERS THEY COULD TRADE — After a flurry of offseason moves, many (including myself) thought the Padres could threaten for a Wild Card. Surprisingly, it has been their starting pitching that has let them down, which was thought to be a strength. The Padres could look to flip free agent-to-be OF Justin Upton if they don’t think they can re-sign him. Maybe they’ll look to trade off recent free agent signee RHP James Shields if they want to retool even further.

PLAYERS THE PIRATES COULD BE INTERESTED IN — There’s no talk of moving RHP Tyson Ross, but I imagine that Ross’s groundball tendencies (62.8%) coupled with his strikeout rate (9.88 K/9) would perk the Pirates’ interest. Ross still has two years of arbitration control after this one. Maybe reliever Joaquin Benoit could use a fresh start and complement Watson in the setup role.

ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS (40-42)

PRE-SEASON PREDICTION — No chance

RECORD NEEDED TO GET 89 WINS — (49-31, .613 win%)

PLAYERS THEY COULD TRADE — The Diamondbacks caught a lot of flak a couple of weeks ago for trading 2014 1st round pick Touki Toussaint to the Braves as a way of offloading Bronson Arroyo’s remaining $9.5M. Personally, it seemed like using a sledgehammer when a scalpel was more applicable, but the Diamondbacks have greatly cleared away onerous future salaries. The only one that remains is 2B Aaron Hill’s $12M in 2016. It is rumored that SS Chris Owings and his four years of team control are on the block. Lefty reliever Oliver Perez may interest a team interested in a LOOGY.

PLAYERS THE PIRATES COULD BE INTERESTED IN — Unless GM Dave Stewart has an aneurysm and decides to trade 1B Paul Goldschmidt, I don’t see any matches here.

ATLANTA BRAVES (40-42)

PRE-SEASON PREDICTION — No chance

RECORD NEEDED TO GET TO 89 WINS — (49-31, .613 win%)

PLAYERS THEY COULD TRADE — Not much was expected of the Braves in the 2015 season. They’re stockpiling prospects, mostly young arms, in every trade they make in hopes of being ready for 2017 in their new Cobb County stadium. OF Cameron Maybin is healthy for the first time since 2012 and productive for the first time since 2011, so maybe the Braves look to flip him for more prospects.

Relievers Jason Grilli and Jim Johnson were signed pretty much with the intent of being flipped at the trade deadline.

PLAYERS THE PIRATES COULD BE INTERESTED IN — Safe to say that there won’t be a reunion between the Pirates and Grilli. Other than that, I don’t see anyone here that would interest the Pirates.

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Tomorrow we’ll look at the 2015 NL Playoff Contenders and what needs they may have.