2016 NL Central Preview

We tried to gather the finest baseball minds for a great TPOP preview of the NL Central. But unfortunately the only people that showed up were me, Steve, and Kurt. Here’s our thoughts on how the NL Central is going to shake out in 2016.

STEVE DiMICELI

NL CENTRAL STANDINGS

KURT HACKIMER

NL CENTRAL STANDINGS

1. Chicago Cubs (97-65)
2. Pittsburgh Pirates (90-72)
3. St. Louis Cardinals (89-73)
4. Cincinnati Reds (74-88)
5. Milwaukee Brewers (66-96)

MVP: Anthony Rizzo
Breakout: Addison Russell
Disappointment: Kyle Schwarber
Key Addition: Jason Heyward
Key Departure: Starlin Castro

While Kris Bryant led the team in jersey sales, Rizzo was Chicago ?s best position player last season and will be again ? It ?s tough to call Russell, who posted 2.9 WAR last season, a breakout star, but most of his value came from his defense. This year his offense will take a step forward ? Schwarber has incredible power, but the problem with all or nothing hitters is that the ?nothing ? tends to show up more than the ?all ? ? Heyward ?s defense alone makes him their most impactful acquisition ? A move to New York further rejuvenates Castro ?s career.

MVP: Andrew McCutchen
Breakout: Tyler Glasnow
Disappointment: Mark Melancon
Key Addition: Juan Nicasio
Key Departure: A.J. Burnett

McCutchen enters this season healthy and determined. He might end up becoming the MVP of the whole league ? Come June, Pirates fans will pine for Glasnow ?s promotion and the lanky youngster will deliver ? Melancon ?s declining velocity and strikeout numbers didn ?t hurt him last season, but he won ?t be able to keep the magic going ? I ?m going to commit a cardinal sin and believe in Nicasio ?s strong spring. He ?ll be the next Searage success story ? Alvarez and Walker will be replaced, but having an All-Star behind Cole and Liriano was a luxury that the Pirates won ?t have this season.

MVP: Kolten Wong
Breakout: Tommy Pham
Disappointment: Yadier Molina
Key Arrival: Seung Hwan Oh
Key Departure: Jason Heyward

Wong is exactly the kind of barely above average baseball player that will thrive in St. Louis ? Randal Grichuk is the most popular choice, but Pham hit the ball harder than Grichuk did last season ? Molina is flat out brilliant behind the plate, but injuries and a lack of pop will have Cardinals searching for a backup plan ? Mike Leake will be fine, but the Korean import will steal headlines ? The Cardinals just won ?t have the facilities to replace Heyward in the outfield.

MVP: Joey Votto
Breakout: Adam Duvall
Disappointment: Homer Bailey
Key Arrival: Jose Peraza
Key Departure: Todd Frazier

Votto will set the Major League record for walks in a season ? Duvall ?s home run power will push him to a productive 2016 ? Bailey will successfully return from Tommy John surgery, but there ?s no way that he ?ll be worth $18 million to a losing team ? The Aroldis Chapman trade was a total mess, but the Reds acquired an interesting young prospect in Peraza ? ?Tear Down/Rebuild ? is en vogue right now, so Frazier had to go. But his 35 home runs will be hard to replace.

MVP: Ryan Braun
Breakout: Keon Broxton
Disappointment: Taylor Jungmann
Key Arrival: Orlando Arcia
Key Departure: Jonathan Lucroy

When the Brewers trade Lucroy, Braun and Matt Garza will be the last two guys on the roster who have played on a good Brewers team ? Broxton will do his best Nyjer Morgan impersonation and win the hearts of Brewers with his alter ego ?Terry Blush ? ? Jungmann is one of the few Brewers pitchers with upside, but too many walks will ruin his 2016 season ? Stud shortstop prospects are en vogue and Arcia will be Milwaukee ?s trendy accessory ? Lucroy isn ?t gone yet, but he has an overnight bag packed. The return in the imminent Lucroy trade might determine the length of Milwaukee ?s rebuild.

KEVIN CREAGH

NL CENTRAL STANDINGS

1. Chicago Cubs (93-69)
2. Pittsburgh Pirates (90-72)
3. St. Louis Cardinals (87-75)
4. Cincinnati Reds (66-96)
5. Milwaukee Brewers (63-99)

MVP: Anthony Rizzo
Breakout: Jorge Soler
Disappointment: Ben Zobrist
Key Addition: Jason Heyward
Key Departure: Starlin Castro

I think Kris Bryant will cause many baseballs to wake up in the middle of the night in cold sweat, but I do see him regressing a touch this year, so I’m sticking with one of baseball’s best bargains in Anthony Rizzo. Jorge Soler has been frittering around the edges the past two years on his potential, but this may be his use-it-or-lose-it year with the Cubs. If he breaks out, he’s a fixture, if not he’s a trade chip. Ben Zobrist is old. Jason Heyward is a little overrated because of the (in my opinion) over-reliance on defensive metrics to bolster his WAR total, but he’s still a hugely useful component. Starlin Castro, perhaps like Jorge Soler next, never fully delivered on his talent.

MVP: Starling Marte
Breakout: Gregory Polanco
Disappointment: Juan Nicasio
Key Addition: Jon Niese
Key Departure: A.J. Burnett

McCutchen will (hopefully) finish in the top 5 of the NL MVP again this year, but I think in terms of team MVP that Starling Marte is going to put it all together for a full year in 2016. Likewise, I feel that Polanco’s growth chart is going to hit an upward inflection point, as well. With all of the good vibes surrounding Juan Nicasio out of Spring Training, it just feels like a huge setup for the inevitable return trip to Earth. He’s pitched more than 100 innings once in his career and 157 is his career high. If Jon Niese accepts that Ray Searage is his dark overlord, the Pirates can control him for two more seasons at $10.5M/year — a steal in today’s pitching market. A.J. Burnett went out with a vintage season last year and not having three top starters will be an adjustment for the Pirates.

MVP: Matt Carpenter
Breakout: Carlos Martinez
Disappointment: Matt Holliday
Key Arrival: Mike Leake
Key Departure: Jason Heyward

Matt Carpenter is not flashy and not heralded around the league — the perfect example of a Cardinal. If Martinez’s shoulder doesn’t fall off, he could garner some Cy Young votes this year. Matt Holliday’s slow decline will take an accelerated step this year, just in time for the Cardinals to have to make a tough call on his 2017 club option. Mike Leake is a solid #3/#4 level pitcher and will make the Pirates miserable like he always seems to do. Even though he’s a touch overrated, losing Heyward is still a big deal.

MVP: Joey Votto
Breakout: Raisel Iglesias
Disappointment: Homer Bailey
Key Arrival: Cody Reed
Key Departure: Aroldis Chapman

By the end of the year, Votto may be a man on an island. It should be a chilling reminder to the Pirates that just 3 seasons ago, the Reds and Pirates faced off in the Wild Card game. The Reds got older and made some bad contract decisions, which put them in this spot. I think Iglesias is going to be a strong #2-level starter for the Reds, perhaps as soon as this year. Bailey is one of the aforementioned bad contract decisions. The Reds are still on the hook for 4 yr/$86M. Cody Reed was a prospect obtained in the Cueto trade with the Royals and all accounts this spring say he’s going to be very good. It was so deflating when the Reds had a lead in the 9th inning and seeing Chapman on the mound — the game was virtually unwinnable.

MVP: Anyone but Ryan Braun, please
Breakout: Orlando Arcia
Disappointment: Will Smith
Key Arrival: Chase Anderson
Key Departure: Jonathan Lucroy, when he’s eventually traded

Man, I really dislike Ryan Braun. Once the Brewers skirt the Super 2 deadline, Arcia will be up and should entrench himself as the Brewers’ shortstop for their next competitive window. I’m cheating a little on Will Smith as he’s already out half the year, but I have to figure the Brewers were hoping to flip him in July for a big return. Chase Anderson came over in the Jean Segura heist from everyone’s favorite trading partner, the Arizona Diamondbacks. Lucroy will make some team better this year, it just won’t be the Brewers.