2017 Pirates Trade Value Rankings

 

Over the past five to ten years, it has become a staple in baseball circles to determine the value of a player. The best way to determine the value of a player is to do it in the terms of a trade where you must take all the factors of a player into account: age, years of control, contract, position scarcity and most importantly, ability.

Bill Simmons started the craze at ESPN (and then on now-defunct Grantland) with NBA players, which led Dave Cameron to adapt it for the Trade Value rankings of MLB players at Fangraphs. Here at TPOP we do our own Trade Value Rankings, but it is just for the Pirates. The theory is that the player ranked 15th could be traded for the player ranked 22nd plus something else.

In years past I ranked the Top 25 and wrote a summary on all the players. This year I ranked ALL players that I thought had even the littlest trade value and came up with 61 players. They are ranked in the chart below. We’ll discuss the rankings today and get creative tomorrow.

Remember, years of control and contract status are VERY important in trade value; this not only means their contract but Rule 5 eligibility and minor league options as well. The player ?s age during the 2017 season is determined by the standard July 1st cutoff date and their projected 2017 level assignment is shown, as well. On to the rankings:

Rank		2017	Options	Location /Service Time	Contract	Guaranteed Money	Min
		Age					/
							Max yrs
1	Starling Marte	28	2	4.07	6 yr/$31M (14-19)+20-21 opts	25,000,000	3/5
2	Gregory Polanco	25	2	2.103	5 yrs/$35M (17-21) & 22-23 team opt	35,000,000	5/7
3	Gerrit Cole	27	2	3.111	1st Yr Arb	3,750,000	1/3
4	Andrew McCutchen	30	3	7.123	6 yr/$51.5M (12-17)+18 opt	14,500,000	1/2
5	Francisco Cervelli	31	0	6.146	3 yr/$31M (17-19)	31,000,000	3/3
6	Jameson Taillon	25	1	0.11	1st Yr on 40 Man (Arb after ’19)	535,000	1/6
7	Austin Meadows	22	3	AAA	Rule 5 elig. after 2017		0/6.5
8	Jung Ho Kang	30	3	2	4 yr/$11M (15-18)+19 opt	5,750,000	2/3
9	Ivan Nova	30	0	6.024	3 yr/$26M (17-19)	26,000,000	3/3
10	Tyler Glasnow	23	2	0.066	1st Yr on 40 Man (Arb after ’19)	86,500	0/6.5
11	Josh Harrison	29	1	5.033	4 yr/$27.3M (15-18)+19-20 opts	7,500,000	2/4
12	Mitch Keller	21	3	High A	Rule 5 elig. after 2018		0/6.5
13	Kevin Newman, SS	23	3	AAA/AA	Rule 5 elig. after 2018		0/6.5
14	Josh Bell	24	2	0.053	1st Yr (Arb after ’19)	535,000	1/6
15	Jordy Mercer	30	1	4.095	2nd Yr Arbitration	4,325,000	1/2
16	Ke ?Bryan Hayes	20	3	High A	Rule 5 elig. after 2019		0/6.5
17	Cole Tucker	20	3	AA	Rule 5 elig. after 2018		0/6.5
18	Tony Watson	32	2	ML	3rd Yr Arbitration	5,600,000	1/1
19	David Freese	34	2	ML	2 yr/$11M (17-18)+19 cl opt	6,250,000	2/3
20	John Jaso	33	0	7.032	2 yr/$8M (16-17)	4,000,000	1/1
21	Daniel Hudson	30	2	6.117	2 yr/$11M (17-18)	5,500,000	2/2
22	Juan Nicasio	30	0	5.084	3rd Yr Arbitration	3,625,000	1/1
23	Chris Stewart	35	0	6.091	2 yr/$3M (16-17)+18 opt	1,650,000	1/2
24	Adam Frazier	25	3	0.101	1st Yr (Arb after ’19)	535,000	1/6
25	Taylor Hearn	22	3	High A	Rule 5 elig. after 2018		0/6.5
26	Chad Kuhl	24	2	0.079	1st Yr (Arb after ’19)	535,000	0/6.5
27	Elias Diaz	26	1	0.167	3rd Year on 40-Man (Arb after ’19)	129,750	1/6
28	Nick Kingham	25	1	ML/AAA	3rd Year on 40-Man	129,750	0/6.5
29	Will Craig	23	3	High A	Rule 5 elig. after 2019		0/6.5
30	Steven Brault	25	2	0.037	1st Yr on 40 Man (Arb after ’19)	86,500	0/6.5
31	Trevor Williams	25	3	0.027	2nd Year on 40-Man (Arb after ’19)	86,500	0/6.5
32	Phil Goselin	27	1	2.085	Arb after ?17	535,000	1/4
33	Drew Hutchison	26	1	3.165	2nd Yr Arb (of 4)	2,300,000	1/3
34	Felipe Rivero	25	0	1.162	2nd Yr on 40 man (Arb after ’17)	535,000	1/5
35	Clay Holmes	24	3	AAA/AA	1st Year on 40-Man	43,250	0/6.5
36	Gage Hinsz	21	3	High A	Rule 5 elig. after 2019		0/6.5
37	Jared Hughes	30	1	4.162	3rd Yr Arb (of 4)	2,825,000	1/2
38	Antonio Bastardo	31	0	7.054	2 yr/$12M (16-17)	6,500,000	1/1
39	Alen Hanson	24	0	0.038	1st Yr (Arb after ’19)	535,000	0/6.5
40	Max Moroff	24	2	0.004	2nd Year on 40-Man	86,500	0/6.5
41	Pat Light	26	2	0.054	2nd Year on 40-Man	86,500	0/6.5
42	Yeudy Garcia	24	3	AA	Rule 5 elig. after 2017		0/6.5
43	Luis Escobar	21	3	Low A	Rule 5 elig. after 2018		0/6.5
44	Edgar Santana	25	3	AAA	Rule 5 elig. after 2017		0/6.5
45	Dovydas Neverauskas	24	3	ML/AAA	1st Year on 40-Man	43,250	0/6.5
46	Travis Macgregor	20	3	SS	Rule 5 elig. after 2020		0/6.5
47	Max Kranick	19	3	SS	Rule 5 elig. after 2020		0/6.5
48	Braeden Ogle	19	3	SS	Rule 5 elig. after 2020		0/6.5
49	Wade LeBlanc	32	0	3.131	1 yr/$0.8M (17)+18 opt	750,000	1/2
50	A.J. Schugel	28	1	1.004	2nd Yr (Arb after ’18)	129,750	1/5
51	Tyler Webb	26	3	Rule 5 pick	1st Yr (Arb after ’19)	535,000
52	Gift Ngoepe	27	2	ML/AAA	2nd Year on 40-Man	86,500
53	Chris Bostick	24	2	ML/AAA	2nd Year on 40-Man	86,500
54	Jose Osuna	24	3	ML/AAA	1st Year on 40-Man	43,250
55	Jordan Luplow	23	3	AA	Rule 5 elig. after 2017		0/6.5
56	Barrett Barnes	25	3	AAA	not selected in Rule 5		0/6.5
57	Adrian Valerio	20	3	Low A	Rule 5 elig. after 2018		0/6.5
58	Stephen Alemais	22	3	High A	Rule 5 elig. after 2019		0/6.5
59	Michael De La Cruz	20	3	Low A	Rule 5 elig. after 2017		0/6.5
60	Tyler Eppler	24	3	AAA/AA	Rule 5 elig. after 2017		0/6.5
61	Pablo Reyes	23	3	AA	not selected in Rule 5		0/6.5

Gerrit Cole could have the most trade value on the team as a true ace is in more demand than ever, but he is a pitcher that showed chinks in the armor last year and…he’s a pitcher …and could get injured or lose velocity or pull a Steve Blass.Notes:

• The top of the list is heavy in established players, which is good. An organization like the Brewers might not have a major leaguer at its top spot and this is a symbol of rebuilding.
• The 40-man status might play a part in some rosters decisions near the tail end of this year. While it might be nice to have Kevin Newman get a cup of coffee near the tail end of this year, he doesn’t need to have a 40 man roster spot until after 2018. This could keep a 40 man spot open for another player marinating in AAA.
• Speaking of 40 man players in AAA, flamethrowing relievers Edgar Santana and Dovydas Neverauskas are back-to-back on the rankings but Santana gets the edge because he doesn’t need added to the 40 man until after 2017.
• Felipe Rivero seemed like a steal for three months of Mark Melancon, but he’s out of options so he can’t get right in AAA anymore without being lost to waivers.
• Steven Brault and his buddy Trevor Williams have service times of 0.027 and 0.037 respectively. If 110 days of service time seem to be the Rule 5 tipping point then these guys might be up in July versus June as 5th starters or relievers to gain an extra year of control.
• Mitch Keller might be lower on the list than some might have guessed, but he’s a prospect that has yet to succeed at AA, too early to have as much value as many would think.
• The trade value of Starling Marte (or Gregory Polanco) is more than player 31-61 combined.
• The NFL and its non guaranteed contracts and the Francisco Liriano trade have made me list “guaranteed money” and min-max years. All minor leaguers have no guaranteed money and 0 year of min control as well as 6.5 of max control. Arbitration and contracts give the range of years of control and guaranteed monies.

Tomorrow’s article will apply all these values in a practical application.