In my last article, which focused on Josh Gibson’s time in Puerto Rico and its effects, I asked one to list a personal top Pittsburgh player list.  I challenge the reader to do the same in this article.  If I was to ask you who the greatest African-American baseball player of all time and the greatest Latino baseball player of all time I would receive a lot of different answers.  Ironically, some might mention Josh Gibson, but I think many of the answers would include Willie Mays; while some of answers would include Roberto Clemente.

Is it surprising to you to hear that in the winter of 1954-55 those greats of Mays and Clemente played in the same outfield together in Puerto Rico?  

While Josh Gibson played in Puerto Rico to make more money, I’m not exactly sure why Willie Mays would have needed to play winter ball.  He was fresh off the 1954 season where he garnered 10.4 WAR, won the NL MVP and stole an out from Vic Wertz in Game 1 of the World Series with “The Catch.”

When the new year came in 1955, Willie Mays was in Puerto Rico manning centerfield for the Santurce Cangrejeros, nicknamed the Crabbers, the same team that Josh Gibson played for in 1938.  The other notable player for the Santurce squad was a young Puerto Rican outfielder named Roberto Clemente.

Clemente just got done with a year playing in the Dodgers minor league system in which the Dodgers were hiding him in their AAA team in Montreal.  After the season the Pirates selected Clemente with a pick in the Rule 5 draft.  Shortly after that, Clemente headed home to play for his San Juan club with Santurce.   Clemente had to be excited to to have such a great player to study and learn from.

The way Caribbean winter ball worked is that Puerto Rico, Cuba, Venezuela and Panama would have their own leagues and then the champions would meet in the Carribean Series placing the champions against each other.  Not surprisingly, the Santurce Cangrejeros with their outfield of Clemente and Mays made the Caribbean Series.   Clemente played in the league’s All Star game and hit two homers as one of the league’s youngest players.

Baseball: Caribbean World Series: Santurce Crabbers Willie Mays (24) in action, at bat vs Venezuela at Estadio Universitario.
Caracas, Venezuela 2/16/1955
CREDIT: Mark Kauffman (Photo by Mark Kauffman /Sports Illustrated/Getty Images)
(Set Number: 2405 TK1 C6 F7 )

The Caribbean series took place from February 10 through February 15, 1955 featuring the champion baseball teams from Cuba: Alacranes de Almendares; Panama: Carta Vieja Yankees; Puerto Rico: Cangrejeros de Santurce, and Venezuela, Navegantes del Magallanes. The format consisted of 12 games, each team facing the other teams twice.  The games were played at Estadio Universitario in Caracas, the capital city of Venezuela, which boosted capacity to 22,690 seats, while the ceremonial first pitch was thrown by Marcos Pérez Jiménez, by then the President of Venezuela.

Clemente and Mays both played well but were overshadowed by shortstop Don Zimmer who OPSed .971 and was the league MVP.   Clemente didn’t have any notable games but slugged .571.  Mays, however, did have the most memorable moments of the Series hitting a two out walkoff homerun in Game 6 of the Series.

While this short winter season and 12 game championship in Venezuela are a mere 50ish games of the 2000+ games of both Mays and Clemente’s career, it’s pretty exciting to think that one of the best combos of all time existed in Puerto Rico in 1955.

Baseball: Caribbean World Series: Santurce Crabbers Willie Mays (24) victorious with team after winning championship vs Venezuela at Estadio Universitario. Caracas, Venezuela 2/16/1955 CREDIT: Mark Kauffman (Photo by Mark Kauffman /Sports Illustrated/Getty Images)

The post Santurce “Crabbers” Once Had Clemente and Willie Mays In Same Outfield appeared first on The Point of Pittsburgh.

If I asked you to name the top five Pittsburgh baseball players of all time and leave off the noun “Pirates” that would be a clue for you to reference Josh Gibson.

Gibson, Bonds, Clemente, Honus Wagner and Ralph Kiner would probably be the five man Mount Rushmore of Pittsburgh baseball.

While I can tell you about Jordy Mercer’s college career, his minor league progression and major league career, I’m just learning all the nuances of Josh Gibson.  We all know about Clemente and his Puerto Rican roots, but not many may know much about Josh Gibson and his time spent on the island in the 30’s and 40’s.

Negro All Stars in Puerto Rican Baseball

The first pitch of Puerto Rican “beisbol” happened in Santurce, a neighborhood of San Juan, on January 11th, 1898,  three years before the Red Sox were founded.  Baseball seemed like a recreational sport until the late 1930’s when the Liga de Béisbol Semiprofesional de Puerto Rico (LBSPR) was christened.  The league quickly grew to six teams with teams from all over the island, ranging from the north central capital of San Juan to the western coastal town of Ponce (Carlos Correa’s hometown).

While Jim Crow laws prevented blacks and latinos from playing baseball in the majors, the Puerto Rican league was very welcoming of blacks, and in turn the Negro League allowed Puerto Ricans and Dominicans to join in.  This openness between the Negro Leagues and the island is how Josh Gibson (and Satchel Paige, etc.) got to be a legend in Puerto Rico and conceivably change the culture of baseball in Puerto Rico forever.

A 19 year old Josh Gibson played for the Homestead Grays in 1931 and went to the Pittsburgh Crawfords in 1932 to catch for Satchel Paige.   After the 1932 season Gibson traveled to Puerto Rico to be a player/manager for the new Santurce Cangrejeros. He was paid $250 a month and was a star on this new expansion team.  In 1933, Gibson returned to Pittsburgh and played for the Crawfords in the new Negro National League through 1936.

Gibson was a bit of a circus sideshow with his prodigious power and keen eye.   He supposedly hit a home run out of Yankee Stadium, as well as stadiums in Puerto Rico, Cuba, Mexico and Venezuela.  This Giancarlo Stanton-type talent brought in thousands of fans and made him a legend in a land where it was easier for him to assimilate with the common man.

In 1937-38 Gibson batted .342 for Havana, in the Cuban League, while back with Homestead in 1938 he hit .365 with 10 homers in fewer than 100 at-bats before hitting .380 that winter in Puerto Rico. In 1940 Gibson accepted a pay raise to join the Veracruz Azules in the Mexican League. Despite playing only about one-quarter of the season he tied for second in the league with 11 home runs. After the Mexican League season he returned to the Puerto Rican Winter League where he not only batted .480, but hit a home run that was estimated at 600 feet.
Courtesy of SABR summary of Gibson’s career.

Not surprisingly Gibson’s .480 batting average remains a LBSPR record to this day.

Could We Have Clemente Without Gibson?

It seems as if Puerto Rican baseball went from a local pastime to a regional profession in the early 1930’s.  It’s too coincidental that this was the time that the Negro League players, and more importantly Gibson, started wintering on the island.   Maybe it was a short term business move for the new league to invest in top flight talent from the mainland until the new league gained steam.  During Gibson’s first year with the Santurce “Crabbers” in 1932, the uniforms they used were blank and they had no sponsor.   By Gibson’s next trip a couple winters later they were sponsored by a national rum company and moved into a new stadium.  By his last trip in the winter of 1941-42 baseball was a national treasure with the All Star game occurring over “Three Kings Day” (the Christian feast of the Epiphany).

Is it a stretch to assume that when Roberto Clemente was working in the sugar fields as an 8 year old in 1942 he was swinging a stick of sugarcane pretending to be Josh Gibson?  Clemente was earmarked for his talent as a 16 year old and eventually signed a contract with the same Santurce Cangregeros as a 17 year old and he happened to have the same locker as “The Black Babe”.

You can make an argument that while he hit a home run out of “The House that Ruth Built”, Gibson himself might have “built” the stadium in Santurce…and ones in Cuba, Mexico and Venezuela too.

I never realized how influential Gibson and other Negro league players were in the formation of the Latin American game and it’s crazy to see how it links arguably the two greatest Pittsburgh players ever.

The post Josh Gibson, Roberto Clemente and Puerto Rican baseball appeared first on The Point of Pittsburgh.

Photos courtesy of MLB, CBS sports and HBO

You know nothing, Jon Snow.

I feel like Jon Snow this offseason in regards to the Pirates.  I know nothing…for certain.  This offseason has the potential with possible trades, major and minor league free agents signings, DFA’s, Rule 5 draft, etc. to have many different 25 man rosters.  Let’s start with the things I know for sure.

The Six Fielders

There are only six of 12 position players I feel certain will be on the 25-man roster come spring:

1. Josh Bell
2. Gregory Polanco
3. Starling Marte
4. Elias Diaz
5. Adam Frazier
6. Sean Rodriguez

That’s it…that is all I’m sure about.  Bell will be the 1B.  Marte and Polanco will play somewhere in the outfield as much as their health and performance determine.  Diaz will be a catcher; he might be the starter, but will probably be the backup.  Frazier is a key cog for the Pirates going forward regardless of where he plays or if he starts.  Rodriguez is revered, plays many positions, and is OK coming off the bench.

The others:

• McCutchen, Harrison, Freese, Mercer and Cervelli all could be traded — more on this $48M group of players to follow.
• Jordan Luplow and Max Moroff could be starting ML players come Spring Training or could be back in Indianapolis providing depth.  They are the like some starting pitchers to be named later.

Clay Holmes is the easiest

Like the position players, there is a great amount of uncertainty with the pitchers.  See my handy Venn diagram below:

Many people speculate that the Pirates will trade Gerrit Cole and/or Ivan Nova in the offseason and I think that is wrong.   Cole needed a breakout 2017 season for that to happen, which didn’t and Huntington knows he could potentially carry a rotation in 2018.  The perfect scenario would be a 5+ WAR 2017 season for Cole with a trade next offseason.  As for Nova, he’s cheap for a starter and might work well as a swingman, which is the future of pitching to be sure.

Steve Brault is probably the player that could have the biggest extremes in 2018.  He could be a fifth starter in the majors.  He could be the number one starter in Indianapolis.  He could also be the LOOGY in the major league pen who morphs into the next Tony Watson for the conceivable future.  Nick Kingham’s role could be similar to Brault’s, but a newly issued fourth minor league option almost guarantees him time at AAA this year, as he’s not Brault-like with his polish.

Tyler Glasnow’s future should be easier to visualize after watching Lance McCullers, Jr. pitch in the playoffs (he of the 28 consecutive curveballs).   McCullers has the similar story to Glasnow and is why we need to be patient.  Glasnow will probably be in AAA to start the season, but if it clicks he’ll be in the major league rotation.

My buddy Edgar Santana and Lithuanian bouncer Dovydas Neverauskas are the Jordan Luplow and Max Moroff of the Pirates’ bullpen.  Both Santana and “Dovy” could man the 7th inning for the Pirates in the 2018 season or could marinate with their minor league options in AAA to provide additional depth.  Clay Holmes will be in AAA, making one decision easy.  He’s a solid AAA starter a year away from being a ML starting option and a failed AAA starting year from being converted to a potential dominant reliever.

Mad Libs with current starters

Would __(current starter)_____be a better than _____(younger possible starter)___ or would we be better off trading (current starter) for a ____(prospect type)___ and save ____(amount of money)_____?

 

• McCutchen,  Luplow,   A- or B+ prospect,  $14.5M
• Cervelli,  Diaz,  B+ prospect,   $11M
• Harrison,  Moroff,  B prospect,  $10M
• Mercer,  Moroff/Frazier*,  C prospect,  $6M
• Freese,  Frazier,  C prospect,  $6M

First all of the possible starters are ready to start.  All of the current starters might be at their highest value going forward.   All of the current starters are tradeable and would return something of value, possibly a lot of value.  All of them would relieve salary.

With the real payroll ceiling believed to be $120M the Pirates could have $75M+ of payroll to spend this offseason, if they jettisoned all these guys.   I don’t think it’s good for a clubhouse to have a mass exodus, but this offseason is a good time to have extra cash.  Let’s look at 5 scenarios:

Scenario A – keep the vets players (green), add $10M worth of Free Agents, keep payroll near $100M

Scenario B – keep the vets players (green), add $30M worth of Free Agents, raise payroll at $120M

Scenario C – Trade vets players (green), add no Free Agents, payroll under $60M

Scenario D – Trade vets players (green), add $50M+ worth of Free Agents, payroll near $100M

Scenario E – Trade vets players (green), add $70M+ worth of Free Agents, payroll near $120M

Scenario A seems most likely, but B is not out of the question.  If Huntington wants to trade some of these veterans at their high points (you know he wants to) it will probably be some hybrid of Scenario A and D.

What many Pirates fans don’t know is that some teams are payroll strapped this offseason.   Some have to cut overall payroll, some have been told to get under the luxury tax threshold or not to spend to go over the threshold.

This means:

• free agents will take very low salaries
• there will be free agent bargains due to lack of competition (see: Zack Cozart)
• free agents will take one year contracts to wait until next year
• other clubs will be looking to unload contracts

This situation coupled with the Pirates advantageous situation with Qualifying Offer free agents could lead to a big name free agent landing in Pittsburgh.  Stranger things have happened.

The post Knowing Nothing Is Knowing The Pirates’ Offseason appeared first on The Point of Pittsburgh.

You have to think of baseball in the terms of a 162 game season.  If you’re not thinking about it that way trying to analyze the 2017 Pirates would make no sense.   I think I’ve finally made some sense of the 2017 season and normally that comes by looking at numbers.  This was no different tonight.

I know a lot of numbers with regards to baseball and the Pirates, but if you asked me to guess the runs scored and runs allowed runs differential for the Pirates in given year I wouldn’t get within 50 of the answer.   Regardless, I knew last year they had a decent hitting year but a bad pitching year.

Here’s the five year runs scored and runs allowed totals.

It’s not surprising that our 98 win season in 2015 had a low number with 596 runs allowed and the 697 runs scored that year were not the highest, but they were enough to win a lot.  That’s the formula for making the playoffs — a large runs differential.

Last year’s 729/758 told a story of good offense but miserable starting pitching.  You can see why Neal Huntington tried the rotation band aid of Niese, added Nicasio to a “strong” bullpen and threw the young starter kitchen sink at the 2016 season because those 729 runs scored were wasted on a terrible pitching staff.

That leads us to 2017 and the projected 668/740.   The 668 runs scored is not a surprise, but I think this tells us a little bit about the 740 allowed as well.  That’s the point of this article: the low run scoring potential led to the youth movement in the 2017 pitching staff.

Joyce had a .401 OBP and .221 ISO last year in 293 plate appearances. Impossible to replace.

If you told me to guess our 2017 run scored total in November I would have guessed 700.    This was because we lost “superstar” Matt Joyce, and his amazing 2017 numbers.   I also wasn’t confident about McCutchen or Polanco and I knew Meadows would be, at best, a half season player.

If you’d have asked me to guess in January after the Kang news broke, I would have slashed 20 runs off the 700 and guessed 680.   This coupled with the Marte suspension led me to assume a MUCH lower runs scored total than we had in 2016.  So what does that tell us?

I think the loss of Kang made a playoff caliber runs differential of 60-100 runs impossible  because we couldn’t acquire enough pitching to get us down to the 600ish mark.   But this made some easy decisions with several of the pitching moves.

Giving the young starters a chance

The first thing that the sour offensive outlook provided was an opportunity to go with the “kids” in the rotation.

With Steven Brault, Trevor Williams,  Chad Kuhl, and Tyler Glasnow all having excellent 2016’s in the minors and making their debuts in the Majors, the thought was they were on the cusp of being in the ML rotation.  But in reality if we had the offensive potential to score the 700+ runs this year NONE of these guys would have been in the 2017 rotation.

If you’re planning on having a playoff caliber pitching staff you would have had the “kids” in the AAA rotation or in the ML bullpen.  A playoff run is where you would have seen 1) the Quintana trade 2) the Nova signing  AND 3) a 1 year Free Agent flyer (Doug Fister, Bud Norris, etc) for a rotation stacking of something like this:

ML – Quintana, Cole, Taillon, Nova and FA    AAA – Glasnow, Kingham, Kuhl, Williams, Brault

Remember a) we had 72 starts last year from Locke, Liriano, Niese and Vogelsong and b) Brault, Williams, Glasnow hadn’t done well in the majors in 2016.   We needed A LOT of starting pitching and relying on the kids isn’t the best idea for a playoff team.   Remember we dropped a lot from the 596 runs allowed in 2015 to the 758 runs in 2016.   This wasn’t something we could just band aid and have a great runs differential.

With the “pressure off” of having a sure playoff contender, add in the preseason Cubs World Series hype, and Huntington could easily go with a youth centered rotation with Taillon, Kuhl, Glasnow/Williams and chalk it up to an “evaluation” year with the hopes of being competitive.

No go on Quintana

There is a chance that Neal Huntington liked Jose Quintana as much as anyone.   There’s a chance he knew that Quintana was what he needed to really win the division.  I think after Kang was suspended he decided that a trade wouldn’t get him close enough and he didn’t want to gut the farm system to finish 3rd in the division.

What would the Red Sox have done

Let’s pretend that the 2017 Pirates had Kang/Marte, the hope for good McCutchen and Harrison was still there AND had the payroll of the Boston Red Sox.   How would they have set up the pitching staff?

Well, I think the rotation would have been as stated before:  Quintana, Cole, Taillon, Nova and FA

How about the bullpen?   I think this would have been very different too.     I think the Flip, Watson, Nicasio, Hudson quadfecta would have still been around but I think Kuhl, Williams and/or Glasnow would have been involved too.    They could have brought Hughes back as well.   How about something like this:

That’s some hard throwing, groundball inducing stuff there and I think the group would have fed off each other.    LeBlanc and Watson would have been more a LOOGY’s instead of high leverage guys and i think Williams and Kuhl would have been amazing.   Now realize that we wouldn’t have Willams and Kuhl as starters anymore…but that’s the cost of doing business.

2018 Foreshadowing

I think this article could be a good primer to the 2018 season.  If the Pirates add two bats to the starting lineup they could be in that 700+ run arena.   Jung-ho Kang could be one of these bats.  If he looks like a possible return candidate I wouldn’t be surprised if the Pirates add a name bat in free agency.  The Pirates won’t be counting on Polanco or Adam Frazier as starters in 2018, you can bet on that.

If the Pirates do add to the offense, I think they’ll shore up the rotation with an addition and kick someone to the bullpen.  This in addition to some luck could get them back to the positive runs differential to make a run towards the playoffs in 2018.

The post Pirates’ Forecasted Runs Differential Made Difference In Pitching Plan appeared first on The Point of Pittsburgh.

With so much negative in the world, let’s focus on the positives in Pirateland.   Here’s a couple on my radar.

2 WAR starting pitchers

When I started writing this article I pulled up the Fangraphs data on our Pittsburgh Pirates pitchers and, just like I expected, the starting five have pretty decent numbers.  It looks like we’ll have ALL five members of our starting rotation have 2.0 WAR seasons.

You ask when is the last time we had five starting pitchers amass 2.0 WAR each?  I’ll give you a hint Van Halen released an album that year:   1984!

First, I must add that there were three seasons since 1984 that Pirates had ZERO starting pitchers with 2.0 WAR: 1994, 2010, and 2011. Having all five pitchers produce years like this is very good because of the trickle down affect in the organization. There are very few pitchers that are their best selves at 25.  Many have their best seasons in their late 20s.   Having five starting pitchers do this well as a group allows the whole system to grow a year and will only prove dividends in a couple years.

I also included WAR per IP to give you a level of the pitchers’ value relative to each other.  Taillon is the class of the group, then a gap to Trevor Williams.  Rick Rhoden and the Candyman would have slotted nicely into our rotation and Scurry could have helped Nicasio set up “Flip” Rivero.

New CBA gives us an advantage

One of the holes we never dipped into over the last few years was the “Free Agents that would lose us a draft pick”. They used to be Type A or Type B free agents, or ones that were extended a qualifying offer and rejected it, but not if you have a protected pick, etc.

Now they’ve made it pretty simple:  if you receive revenue sharing dollars you lose a 3rd round draft pick instead of a first round pick for signing a Qualifying Offer rejecting free agent.  That’s a really big change.

Over the last few years there were free agents the Pirates probably wanted to sign BUT it would have costed the Pirates these guys:

Instead of these guys:

You can see the quality you give up in the first round versus the third round.  There might not be as many good free agents that hit the market but the cost in prospects is MUCH lower than it used to be for the lower revenue teams.

Good positional players on the cusp

Two young position players are doing well in AAA this year.    No, it isn’t Austin Meadows and Kevin Newman.   It’s Jordan Luplow and Max Moroff.    Newman is doing fine after the promotion from AA and Meadows will be fine once he gets healthy, but Moroff and Luplow are the real story.  Both guys are young for their draft class and the age difference is finally playing out.  Instead of being good with a bunch of players a year or two older, they’ve reached the top minor league level and have broken out.

While we’re talking about Pittsburgh Pirates minor league position players, it’s worth mentioning some others that have caught the statisticians eye.   Carson Cistulli, Fangraphs editor and researcher, is known to analyze prospects that are off the radar. He’s recently spent time looking at the Pirates’ infield prospects and came up with a guess on their career WAR levels.   I must state that Cistulli knows what a 6 WAR or 12 WAR player means and isn’t just pulling numbers out of the air.  I’ve listed his guesses below and gave you a Pirate example with a similar career WAR number:

If these guys combine for 45 WAR we are sitting pretty.

The post Purely Positive Pittsburgh Pirates Piece appeared first on The Point of Pittsburgh.

This grocery store kind of reminds me of the MLB trade deadline.   There are things I value at the store, but not many, but the price is cheap and it’s convenient so I do it.

The Pirates are now officially sellers whether anyone wants to believe it or not.   We have some things of value, but not many.   The price is cheap so a deal will probably happen.  We also have payroll… but more on that later.

9 statements of FACT that might affect the MLB trade deadline

•  Rental players carry value that will be gone at the end of the season.
• Tony Watson and Juan Nicasio (and John Jaso) are Free Agents after the season.
• The Pirates saved $7.5M in from the Marte and Kang suspension and Jared Hughes being let go.
• Prospect Nick Kingham is out of options after this season.
• Adam Frazier has poor fielding metrics at every position.
• Gregory Polanco is on the DL for the 2nd time with a hamstring injury.
• Austin Meadows is playing RF in his rehab assignments.
• The Pirates have ZERO catching prospects in their updated MLB.com Top 30 prospects.
• All of the Pirates core players are signed for next year.

These will all be referenced in the thoughts below.

The trades of Pirate players that could happen

Juan Nicasio and Tony Watson have value.   It’s not a lot of value, but they could realistically help a playoff team win a game or two.  Watson, especially if he’d assumed a super-LOOGY role could strikeout an Anthony Rizzo or Jose Ramirez of the Indians and it could determine a pennant.   It also helps that both are good teammates that would be welcome in a locker room.   All of their value will be gone when they reach free agency, so the onus is on trading them now.

There is really no other impending FA with any real value and let’s pretend the megatrades of Cole and McCutchen won’t happen.

The other asset the Pirates have to give up is money in the form of extra payroll space.   The extra $7.5M needs to be re-invested in the club in some way or the fanbase will not let it die.  I’m a Neal Huntington homer and even I think I’ll be upset if something isn’t done to assume more payroll. This could be in form of an extension but I’ll ignore that now.  I said we’re selling so why would be assuming payroll?  It would be for a 2018 asset or a prospect.   So let’s look at our potential trade partners and players with rental contracts we could assume:

Naturally there are no teams that would want a Watson or Nicasio who would also have the need to salary dump.   The teams that are in the race naturally wouldn’t be prone to having many bad contracts so we can’t pull a reverse Liriano trade in combination with a reliever to assume a better prospect.

I still think one or both relievers might be gone and Neal could get creative to do it.

Other tradeable assets

Two guys who I think who could be trade chips are Adam Frazier and Nick Kingham.

Starting pitching prospect Nick Kingham is involved in every visit to Children’s Hospital and seems like a overall great guy.   Due to his pedigree he was added to the 40 man roster early and has battled back from Tommy John surgery, but hasn’t done enough to separate himself from the pack in AAA.   He also has burned his third option this year and needs a ML contract next year or must be placed on waivers.   He’s the right type of prospect that a team likes having a lot of because by next spring he could emerge as a 5th starter or long reliever for the league minimum.

Adam Frazier is a wonderful hitter who might eventually have a batting title to his credit, but he really doesn’t have a position.   He’s an infielder without hands and a outfielder without instincts.    The good thing is that some teams would ignore Frazier’s defensive warts to have his bat.  Frazier would also be loved by a playoff team to have a bat to PH for the stretch run.   In our organization there are plenty of infielders coming through the system that would be able to pick up the slack starting with the slick fielding Max Moroff down through Kevin Kramer who will start next season in AAA and including Cole Tucker and Kevin Newman.   A utility player needs to be a good glove and Frazier just doesn’t have it.

With Gregory Polanco having his hamstring issues and the Pirates seemingly not trusting Frazier in RF anymore, we might eventually see Austin Meadows man RF in PNC before the end of the season.

Trade targets

Neal Huntington’s two biggest fears are:

1. snakes
2. lack of catching depth

For all the poor timing of suspensions and injuries of this system the Pirates still have one of the best 40 man rosters in baseball with a strong farm system especially if you know about the next crop of Dominican prospects hitting the mainland.  There is one exception — the Pirates’ catching depth.

Catching is weak in all of MLB, but I don’t care about other organizations.  Francisco Cervelli is a tier one starter and Elias Diaz shows promise as the catcher of the future, but if you know the organization it is barren once you get past spot starter Jacob Stallings in AAA.   Plus Cervelli is only signed through 2019 with no options afterward.

The problem is that most teams will cling to their catching prospects like we cling to Eliaz Diaz.   I do see two clubs that have and would part with a catching prospect: the Dodgers and Yankees.

Donny Sands of the Yankees system and Keibert Ruiz of the Dodgers are players I’d bet Huntington is asking for but couldn’t be had by merely Watson and/or Nicasio.    Hence some of the other options I’ve discussed.

Now the non-waiver (and waiver) MLB trade deadline might pass without much action due to the needle threading Huntington might need to do get value, but we do have some assets that could be useful.

The post Being Sellers But Not In The Cellar – Observations At The MLB Trade Deadline appeared first on The Point of Pittsburgh.

Top left and clockwise: Pirates’ 2nd pick Steve Jennings, Ben, Taillon and Pirates’ 1st Shane Baz

Ok, Ben Roethlisberger doesn’t know anything about Conor Uselton and Steve Jennings, but he could like them eventually?

I realize two days after the Pens raised the cup and one day after Jameson Taillon’s return it will be hard to get many people to click on Pirates’ draft picks, but here’s a quick synopsis of the Pirates first four picks: #12, #42, #50 and #72.  In a clickbait type exaggeration the first pick was a Taillon clone from Texas and two of the other three are stud high school quarterbacks….hence the Ben reference.

#12 Shane Baz – high school pitcher from Texas

Recommended slot bonus $4M

Jameson Taillon’s return was well timed as the Pirates selected another Texas RH with their first pick.  This is what I wrote last week in the Draft Preview, when I gave Baz the 2nd best odds of being selected by the Pirates:

The best of the second tier of players, Baz has 5 legit pitches: a plus fastball, a plus cutter, a plus slider and a curve and a changeup.    He also is one of the youngest high school players (born 6/99). He adds plus makeup and plus athleticism.  He’d be the perfect Mitch Keller-type of sandwich round pick but it’s doubtful he makes it out of the top 15.   Jonathan Mayo and I discussed Baz as a possible pick but we noted that the Pirates don’t seem to want to take a HS arm with their first pick due to the large chance of injury and the large 1st pick slot value.    That’s the only thing not bumping Baz up to the favorite. He also has a  TCU commit which means he might require slot.   Finally for you Statcast junkies, the Pirates love spin rate and Baz has the highest of high school pitchers.

MLB.com Video here:  Shane Baz

Pedro Martinez scouting him HERE

#42  Steve Jennings – high school pitcher from Tennessee

Recommended slot bonus $1.6M

Jennings is the first of the quarterbacks and the one that stuck with football the longest.  He tore his ACL playing football his junior season, but it didn’t hold him back on the diamond. The football time cost him views on the showcase circuit.  This hidden nature of Jennings might be added value, as does the inability to focus only on baseball.   If you watch Jennings’ football highlight video (HERE) you can see the athleticism that oozes out.   Jennings has a weak U of Mississippi commit.

MLB.com Video here: Steve Jennings

#50 Calvin Mitchell – high school outfielder from California

Recommended slot bonus $1.04M

Mitchell is the one player I haven’t referenced yet.  He supposedly tore it up on the showcase circuit last summer, but struggled this spring due to fiddling with his swing mechanics.   He has a weak commit to the University of San Diego so he should be signable.   He also is from the same high school as current Pirate Trevor Williams.

MLB.com Video here:  Calvin Mitchell

#72 Connor Uselton – high school outfielder from Oklahoma

Recommended slot bonus $804k

The second of the quarterbacks, Uselton actually game up football after being a successful starter in his freshman year (Video: HERE).    My thinking on Uselton is that he has star potential, but he’s a tougher sign because he has a May 1998 birthday and could be a sophomore eligible draftee if he honored his commit to Oklahoma State.   He could be a center fielder with his athleticism and has the strong quarterback arm that works in right if he has to move.    His best asset at the moment is his plus raw power, which would be even better if he can stay in center.   I don’t know how much money above the recommended slot it may take to get him.

MLB.com Video here: Connor Uselton

The post Roethlesberger and Taillon May Love Pirates’ Picks – Pirates’ Day 1 Draft Results appeared first on The Point of Pittsburgh.

• draft young for class whether its college or high school
• draft pitching and up-the-middle players
• draft players with solid defensive skills
• spread high school pitching money around (ie. not all to top pick)
• avoid players with questionable maturity
• draft pitching (intentionally redundant)
• they’ll pull a Will Craig and surprise everyone

So the Pirates have tendencies and a tendency to surprise.

Since the MLB draft is a crapshoot I likened it to betting on a horserace.    If you watched this year’s Kentucky Derby you noticed there were 20 horses in the field.  With the Pirates picking #12, I still don’t feel like I’ll guarantee my success with only twenty prospective picks but I think I have a shot.   That being said these aren’t the twenty best players in the draft; these are the twenty that I believe the Pirates are most likely to select.

The Odds

Here’s a blurb on all the players with odds.   Click on their names for a video of each.

J.B. Bukauskas (6-1) – JBB or Kaus or Buke (no way he doesn’t get a nickname) might be the youngest college draft prospect (born 10/96).  He’s been comped to Sonny Gray and has a plus-plus fastball and a plus slider.  His only knock is his shorter stature at 6′-0″.  Mayo discussed the worries of him going to the bullpen but agrees that he’d he a great reliever and that’s not a bad floor.    The odds would be higher on him but I think there’s a good chance he doesn’t get to 12.  Also, he has the leverage of a junior AND senior season so he’d require slot.

Shane Baz (6-1) – The best of the second tier of players (the first won’t reach #12)  Baz has 5 legit pitches: a plus fastball, a plus cutter, a plus slider and a curve and a changeup.    He also is one of the youngest high school players (born 6/99). He adds plus makeup and plus athleticism.  He’d be the perfect Mitch Keller-type of sandwich round pick but it’s doubtful he makes it out of the top 15.   Jonathan Mayo and I discussed Baz as a possible pick but we noted that the Pirates don’t seem to want to take a HS arm with their first pick due to the large chance of injury and the large 1st pick slot value.    That’s the only thing not bumping Baz up to the favorite. He also has a  TCU commit which means he might require slot.   Finally for you Statcast junkies, the Pirates love spin rate and Baz has the highest of high school pitchers.

Keston Hiura (6-1) –  Hiura’s plus-plus hit tool is almost savant-ish, with hitting being just second nature.   He reminds me of a RHH John Jaso with a touch of Adam Frazier.   He also shares Jaso and Frazier’s position uncertainty.   You can make a Matt Carpenter comp as well.   He’s one of the youngest college bats (6/96) and would be a top 5 pick if not for a elbow injury that might require Tommy John.    The Pirates might have some inside info on the injury as the doctor Hiura is seeing is the one who did Cole Tucker’s surgery (and Kobe Bryant’s).    Also, due to the injury concerns he could possibly sign underslot.  For you Steeler fans, this athlete falling due to injury reminds me of the Heath Miller draft pick.

Trevor Rogers (6-1) Rogers, the prep LHP, was rated by Baseball America as having the 2nd best fastball of the prep class.  He reminds me of a LH version of Tyler Glasnow.  He’s the lone top prospect out of New Mexico and he’s been linked to the Pirates both by Mayo and Keith Law.   That alone gives him high odds.   The one thing I don’t get is his age, as he’ll be 19 on draft day making him one of the oldest HS draft prospects, which normally isn’t the Pirates stance.  My only guess is that a 6′ 6″ LHP who has a plus fastball with command, with feel for three other pitches, might have the potential to have great control which makes him an ace.     I also think a weak commitment helps too.

Nick Pratto (6-1) – Pratto, the sweet swinging LHH first basemen out of California, might be the best pure high school hitter.    Mayo mentioned that the Pirates have drafted several players that performed well at the NHSI (National High School Invitational) and Pratto did the same.    He seems like a pick that will reach his potential and might even sign for underslot.   Why not higher odds?   He’s a 1B only player and just seems like too low a ceiling for a guy who doesn’t give anything back with the glove.  Too bad he’s not a catcher.

Austin Beck (6-1) –  The draft’s highest rated prospect that not many people know about.  After watching some videos he reminds me of Clint Frazier with how much bat speed he delivers.  Scouts give him future 60s in power, speed and OF arm with 50s in hitting and fielding.   He could be a steal at #12 if he becomes the next McCutchen.   I bet the Pirates hope he’s gone so they don’t need to make a decision on him.

Jake Burger – (9-1) – Burger seems like a guy who eats a lot of hamburgers with his thick 6’2″ frame.   But he is college young (4/96), has great power and plays a passable third base.    Imagine a less pretty David Freese with the same ability and you pretty much understand Burger.

Alex Faedo – (9-1) – The RHP from Florida was a preseason 1-1 favorite and has slightly fallen due to an OK junior season and other players jumping ahead.   He has a good fastball and plus slider with a workable changeup.    He seems ordinary, but he’s 3 years closer to the majors than a similar high school pitcher so that gives him value.

DJ Hall – (9-1) – Hall is a Georgia prep lefty who gets raves for his curve and its spin rate.    He sounds like a high school version of Rich Hill.  Scouts say he could have a future 70 fastball as well.    His small 6′-0″ frame doesn’t have much room for physical projection but he could get stronger.

Mark Vientros – (9-1) – Mayo said this is WAY too high for Vientros, the high school shortstop from Miami but this is for the Pirates, who are drafting a system and a draft class and not one player.   Vientros is the youngest player in the high school class by a long shot (12/99).   He’s 5 months younger than the young Cole Tucker was when he was the Pirates first round choice and four months younger than the really young Mike Trout was when drafted #22 by the Angels.    If he’d repeat his senior year he could have a chance for 1-1 in 2018.   He’s also a non-pitcher (read: safer) and he has a chance to stay at SS and he has a very projectable frame.      All this being said, he’s still not quite enough for the 12th pick other than the fact that he would sign for underslot and maybe a lot under the $4M pick slot.   Neal Huntington could do a lot with an extra $2M in a given draft.    This would be like Bill Belichick trading a 1st round pick for two seconds and getting Rob Gronkowski with the second pick.

Heliot Ramos – (12-1) – The exact same strategy as the Vientros pick with another very young player (9/99) but Ramos is a different type.   He’s a raw outfielder from Puerto Rico.  He’ll never play infield, but might be a 20/20 center fielder or right fielder if the Puerto Rican stars align.

Jeren Kendell – (12-1) – Kendell is a dynamic athlete (make sure to watch the video).  The accomplished Vandy centerfielder is a plus runner and fielder with a plus arm AND has power.   He just has a lot of swing-and-miss in his swing which makes everyone nervous.   He would be a rare gamble for the Pirates if he’s there at #12.

Adam Haseley – (12-1) – Haseley is a UVA outfielder who has been hitting around .400 this year.   He’s the classic high floor player with questions on his ceiling.   He’s capable of playing center but wouldn’t be plus and should hit enough to make the show.    The question: is he Jaff Decker or A.J. Pollock?

Sam Carlson – (12-1) – Carlson hails from the baseball hotbed of Minnesota.  He’s a RHP who is revered for his projectable frame, fastball and command.   He was relatively unknown until recently but should go within the top 20 picks.

Evan White – (12-1) – Our friends at Fangraphs use Evan White as a microcosm of this goofy draft.   White (born 4/96) is a plus runner who hits RH and throws LH.  He also is great at infield defense but since he throws LH he’s stuck at first.  His frame is huge and he could develop power to match his hit tool.    Would you take Sean Rodriguez if he could only play 1B and corner OF?  

Logan Warmouth (15-1) Warmouth is this year’s Kevin Newman: college shortstop with 50s across the board.  He’s not a sexy pick but one who should make the majors.   Doesn’t feel like a Pirates pick this year but pundits speculate he could be.

David Peterson – (15-1) – This might be the guy I struggle with the most.   The college LHP seems similar to the Brandon Waddell, Cody Dickson and Cam Vieux’s the Pirates have drafted, but the scouts love him.  Fangraphs even has him as a top 10.  He has four pitches that he commands rather well with his fastball and slider being his best.  If he becomes a LH version of Trevor Williams I wouldn’t be surprised.

Quentin Holmes – (15-1) – Another upside play in the vein of Vientros, Holmes is a 6″-1′ CF with 80 speed.  His bat is well behind his base running and defense but it shows potential.   Scouts use the Billy Hamilton comp but he could never play infield.   Holmes also has the upside as he’s really young (7/99) and he’s from a cold weather state so he might benefit from year-round play.   Looks like a blazing fast Josh Harrison to me.

Pavin Smith (15-1) is a LHH college 1B who is ranked very high in the draft prospect rankings.   At one point this season he had 10 homers and 3 K’s.   I don’t think he gets to the Pirates and I don’t think they’d necessarily pick him as he’s a 1B-only college player and we never draft those… oh right… Will Craig.

Tanner Houck – (15-1) is a RH throwing fireballer from Missouri so naturally he gets the Max Scherzer comp.   Houck’s fastball gets 65 grades from scouts as it is fast and sinks.    His secondary stuff isn’t that good and some scouts don’t love his 3/4 arm slot.   He is also very young for the class so that adds some upside (6/96).

Griffin Canning – (15-1) is a RH college starting pitcher who reminds some of Zach Grienke as he throws four different pitches for strikes with his top pitch being a changeup.   There is some worry of over work as he threw some 120 pitch outings this year for UCLA, but he is a young pitcher (5/96) so hopefully it will be just a blip on a long career.

Blaine Knight – (25-1) – I have a hard time ignoring a draft eligible sophomore from Arkansas after the last one snuck into the Red Sox’s coffers (Bienintendi).  Knight seems like a Chad Kuhl clone with more age upside (6/96) than Kuhl had and more experience against top-flight hitting playing for the Razorbacks versus the Delaware Blue Hens.

Quick notes

• The Pirates have a lot more money than usual for their first several picks.  They pick 11, 40, 50, 72 and 88 with the slots values of $4.03M,  $1.64M, $1.36M,  $804k and $627k respectively.  Moving some of that money around could convince quite a few folks to sign contracts.
• I’d be surprised if the Pirates didn’t draft a college catcher in the first 10 rounds.    Evan Skoug, Riley Adams, Matt Whatley and Daulton Varsho are possible picks, while I like J.J. Schwarz the catcher at Florida whose bat is fine but would need time getting the glove in shape due to an excellent receiver blocking him in Gainesville.
• Jonathan Mayo also mentioned that the Pirates may have picked Will Craig due to the Trackman (aka Statcast) data that was present at Wake Forrest.   He alluded to UVA having good Statcast data as a possible hint at the Pirates drafting a UVA player…. which is where Heath Miller went to school BTW.

Video

ICYMI (in case you missed it) I made this video of a snippet of my interview with Jonathan Mayo about makeup:

The post Pirates’ 2017 Draft Manifesto appeared first on The Point of Pittsburgh.

Jameson Taillon could be back in the rotation by August

The Jameson Taillon cancer has taken everyone by surprise and all the Pirates fans have risen to the occasion.  The fans have been supportive to a letter and no one has wondered when he’ll be back…. until this guy (jerk).

I did some research on testicular cancer in athletes and the results are all over the dish.   Ex-Pirate Andrew Lambo missed all of 2016 due to a diagnosis while Rockies pitcher Chad Bettis has had his cancer spread and has needed some serious treatments this year to combat the cancer.

On the positive, NBA player Nenê Hilario (aka Nenê) had a testicular cancer in 2008 and returned to action much sooner:

“On January 11, 2008, Nenê released a statement saying that he was taking an indefinite leave of absence from the Denver Nuggets to take care of a personal medical issue.^[22] Three days later, he had a testicular tumor removed at a Denver hospital.^[23] He returned to action on March 27, 2008, in the Nuggets’ 118–105 home win over the Dallas Mavericks. ” Wikipedia

If Nenê returned to action after 73 days and Taillon has already resumed some baseball activities, is the 73 days after the surgery date of May 8th too far of a stretch if all goes well?   Call the ceiling for his return Thursday July 20th.

Anibal Sanchez for $5M

The message boards are fired up about Huntington’s “$5M extra money” that he’d be willing to spend at the deadline. How could this work?   The lineup is pretty solid except for the shortstop and there is nothing at shortstop out there worth trading for.  The bench is already loaded, especially once Gregory Polanco and Starling Marte get back and Adam Frazier needs a place to play.  Barring an injury there isn’t a giant void.

The starting rotation, also barring injury, should have Cole/Nova/Kuhl/Glasnow/Williams with the possibility of Taillon as well as Steven Brault and Clay Holmes who are pitching well in Indy.  Not much of an opportunity there either.

The bullpen is the obvious place to upgrade.  It’s even more obvious since Tony Watson and Juan Nicasio might be sold high at the deadline opening two more spots.    Let’s pretend only Watson is sold at the deadline, like only Mark Melancon and not Neftali Feliz was dealt last year.    Here’s what we’d be looking at:

Nicasio
Rivero
Hudson
Edgar Santana*
Wade LeBlanc
Jhan Marinez
Johnny Barbato

* assuming Edgar Santana (see below) will be brought up after the Super Two deadline.

We could deal for another Rivero type who could be a piece for several years, but what if we traded for another Nova and just stashed him in the bullpen?   Enter Anibel Sanchez….

Anibal Sanchez is more similar to AJ Burnett than Ivan Nova.    Sanchez has had success before but he’s had two bad seasons and might need a change of scenery.    The negatives are that the results have been awful, he’s had shoulder troubles, and he’s expensive for this year with an expensive option next year.   The possible upside is a) he still gets strikeouts b) his groundball rate is very low c) he’s had a crazy high HR/FB rate d) he’s had terrible defense and pitch framing catchers and e) the acquisition would be cheap.

Sanchez is supposedly a team favorite and is Venezuelan (see: F. Cervelli, J. Osuna) with a Puerto Rican wife.   If we could stash him in the bullpen and use the next couple months to evaluate him he could be another 3 WAR starter in 2017 that we acquire for nothing.  He has an expensive option next year but Nova would be worth a lot more than $8M right now and the Tigers could send some money along.

Santana is the new Watson

Quiz for you Pirates fans… who was the last good Pirates relief pitcher who was a Pirates prospect that came up from the minors as a reliever not a starter?   This would exclude any player acquired in a trade acquisition like Rivero or Melancon or Grilli or Hanrahan, etc.

It was Tony Watson AT THE SUPER TWO DEADLINE in 2011.    This garnered the Pirates an extra year of control without Watson hitting Super Two like his buddy Jared Hughes did.

You may or may not have heard of Edgar Santana but here’s his current AAA line:

He has a plus slider with a good fastball and command.   He could help NOW, but he’s so good that waiting a couple weeks to get another year of cheap control is why he isn’t currently in the majors.

Neal Huntington show wrap

This week’s Neal Huntington show on Sunday had some pretty good gems.   Here’s three of note:

1) Huntington wants Gift as starting SS.   He said that Gift is “the best defensive shortstop” on the team (as well as the best 2B).  But he says they “see more in his bat” and how he’s so new to batting against RHPs as a RHH hitter after hitting RHPs as a LHH his whole career before last year.  Basically the goal is to get him back to AAA to play and hit everyday so he could be a Gold Glove shortstop with an acceptable bat (i.e. Andrelton Simmons).  Here’s his splits up to now so you can see Huntington’s point:

2) Ray Searage told Steve Blass that a dream he had might have helped out Tyler Glasnow. Searage was dreaming about Glasnow, who was starting off on the right side of the rubber against RHHs and pulling his head up at the last minute to throw inside pitches.   So the next day Searage moved him over to the middle of rubber against RHHs for last game and he could see inside of plate for first time and didn’t pull his head up.

3) Greg Brown kept talking about the batting order and how it’s comprised and was asking if McCutchen might be moved down.   Huntington said without saying that Cutch was in the 3rd spot because of the fact that he’s not hitting well and the 3rd spot often comes to bat with the bases empty and two outs, while the 4th spot hits with more RISP (occupied by the hotter hitter Josh Bell).    The comment was somewhat lost to Brown.

Mayo draft tease

I sat down with the Mel Kiper of the MLB, Jonathan Mayo, last week to talk Pirates’ draft 2017.    I’ll have more quotes from him in my draft preview.   Here’s a video tease:

The post A Gift Of A Taillon Early Return And Other Nuggets appeared first on The Point of Pittsburgh.

Over the last week I taught my three sons to play the game of Risk.   It’s a long drawn out game and many times it seems as though the player who looks to be the eventual winner early in the game is not the winner at the end of the game.

When Neal Huntington has signed free agent contracts and extensions in the past he has often uttered the phrase that there is a “mutual risk” from both the player side and from the team side.  This was definitely the case when the Pirates signed Andrew McCutchen to a contract in 2012 and like the game of Risk the perception of the “winner” has changed throughout the last 5 years.  Rarely have I seen it in my 40 years that a player AND team are both losers in a contract; but with the case of this $51.5M contract I can make an argument that both the Pirates and Cutch would have been better off if it never happened.

Since we’ll be talking about the contract and years and WAR let’s review history.   Andrew McCutchen was called up midseason in 2009 after Nate McClouth was traded, well after the Super Two cutoff.   He played very well (3.4 WAR) and was paid the league minimum (approx. $500k) prorated for the fraction of the year.   He received the league minimum for two more seasons and signed the contract in the offseason before the 2012 season.   He received a $1.2M signing bonus and a $500k salary in 2012.  The following salaries were $4.5M in 2013, $7.2M in 2014,$10M in 2015, $13M in 2016 and $14M this year.   He has a $14.5M team option for next season with a $1M buyout which seemed like a no brainer up until….. after 2015.

Why Cutch’s contract was bad for the Pirates

I never thought we’d get to the time that we were talking about Cutch’s salary being an albatross, but I think we arrived there last spring.   Cutch will be paid $28M between 2016, 2017 and the $1M contract buyout of his 2017 option and Huntington wished he could have spent that elsewhere.

Now what gets lost to most fans is where Cutch would have both salary and team control-wise just going year-to-year with arbitration.  Here’s a chart along with Fangraphs WAR numbers:

Using our arbitration estimates you can see the Pirates didn’t really save that much money.    If you argue that our estimates are low please remember that David Price‘s $19M was the highest arbitration salary ever awarded and he was a Super Two so that was his 4th trip through arbitration and he had a Cy Young award.

Also, the Pirates would have definitely received either a giant trade package for him in January or July of 2015 (probably not due to playoff races) or at the least a 1st round draft choice in the 2016 draft.  Right now I really don’t know what you’d get for Cutch.  He’s a bad outfielder that has .254/.302/.424 slash and will probably have more HRs than doubles (bad sign).    There’s also that $14M contract for this year and $14.5M or $1M buyout for next season.  This is honestly like Francisco Liriano 2.0 but for the fact of the $1M buyout.  Yes, the Pirates would not tender him a qualification. So…

What did the Pirates lose? – $28M and a 1st round draft choice.

Why Cutch’s contract was bad for Cutch

For best explanation of this question let’s look at Carl Crawford of the Rays as what could have happened to Cutch.   Carl Crawford came up through the Rays system and was promoted pretty fast.   He broke into the majors at 20 and was quickly signed to a team friendly contract through his 28 year old season.  But he was able to reach free agency…before he dropped off in production and AFTER he signed a 7 year/$142M contract.

Crawford was fresh off a ridiculous 7.7 WAR season when he signed his monster contract with the Red Sox, then he fell apart.   In the next 6 seasons he totaled 5.9 WAR while getting paid $120M+.   This could have been Cutch.

Cutch was coming off a 5.8 WAR season in 2015 when he could have been a free agent.  He, like Crawford, was 28 and supposedly entering his prime.  Our friend at Fangraphs, Dave Cameron, in his July 2015 trade value rankings post said this:

 “Cutch is still likely to remain an elite player; he ranks fifth in the five year ZIPS forecast, even ahead of most of the young guys heading into their prime. …he’s a probable Hall of Famer in the prime of his career…”  – Dave Cameron, Fangraphs 2015 Trade Value Rankings

Looking at the 2015 offseason of Free Agents we saw the offensively sketchy Justin Upton and Jason Heyward both get $23M a year deals with Chris Davis also getting $150M+.   David Price and Zach Grienke got $200M+ to top all free agents.   I honestly think Cutch would have topped them all.

When polling all the TPOP writers what they thought Cutch would get, the consensus was 7 or 8 years at $25M to $27M a year.  So he would have guaranteed $200M.

Now the real question is, assuming his option is not picked up for 2018 how much will he sign for?   I’d take a stab and say some AL team will offer him 2/$22M in hopes he finds his stroke again.   He might sign a couple more contracts for the rest of the career but I don’t think he’s Carlos Beltran 2.0.   I don’t think he makes more than $35M the rest of his career… to be conservative let’s say $50M.    He did make that extra $28M that needs to be accounted for.  So…

What did the Cutch lose? – $200 M – ($28M + $50M) = $122.0M

Why did Cutch fade?

Not the point of this article but my best guess:

The post A Hindsight Review Of Why McCutchen’s Contract Was Not Wise appeared first on The Point of Pittsburgh.