Is Steven Brault A Bona Fide Starter?

On Sunday afternoon, Steven Brault put the finishing touches on a Pirates sweep of the Colorado Rockies, allowing just two runs (one earned) in 6.1 innings, with five strikeouts, two walks, and four hits.

That game continued an impressive streak for Brault. Since being moved into the starting rotation back in late May, the 27-year-old has steadily lowered his ERA from a ghastly 7.11 to a respectable 3.88.

But Pirates fans are all too familiar with hot streaks turning into mirages. The question remains: Is Brault’s 2019 performance smoke and mirrors, or is this the foundation of something the Pirates can count on in their 2020 rotation?

You Like Fastballs, Don’t You, Squid Brault?

Brault’s Sunday performance wasn’t just a nice outing from a bottom line standpoint. It was also borderline legendary: Brault opened the game by throwing 69 straight fastballs before finally throwing a slider. If only his home run had traveled 420 feet. But I digress.

The volume stands out, but a look at Brault’s pitch breakdown on the season shows that he’s regularly a fastball-heavy pitcher. Baseball Savant incorrectly classifies Brault’s slider/cutter pitch (a “slutter,” as it’s sometimes called) as a cut fastball, but even after adjusting for this, Brault still throws a fastball nearly two-thirds of the time. It’s not Lance Lynn-esque, but that’s still high.

Pitch Class	Total Pitches	%
Fastball	1,084	65.9%
Breaking	333	20.2%
Offspeed	228	13.9%

(Courtesy of Baseball Savant.)

There’s a reason he’s so reliant on those pitches, too. While he doesn’t get better-than-average whiff rates, both his two-seam and four-seam fastball avoid hard contact. Only 22% of Brault’s four-seamers which were put in play were classified as hard hit. That’s a full 20% below league average. The two-seamer is nearly 9% better than average in terms of hard contact.

Pitch Type	Total Pitches	Hard Hit %	Lg. Avg. Hard Hit %
Four Seam	246	22.0%	42.0%
Two Seam	78	30.8%	39.5%

Using R’s pitchRX package, we can also visualize what that contact looks like. Below are plots showing Brault’s fastballs by exit velocity, broken down by batter handedness and pitch type (four-seamers on top).

The top right panel is heavily cluttered, but there’s a fair bit of green in there, particularly around the edges. Like any pitch, Brault gets lit up when he leaves the four-seamer out over the middle of the plate, but he’s able to avoid running into that frequently. The bottom right is more of a concern. When he misses to right handed hitters with the two-seamer, hitters are far less forgiving.

Secondary Pitches

The biggest question moving forward will likely be how well Brault’s secondary stuff holds up. The answer in 2019 has been pretty well. Brault throws the hybrid slider/cutter mentioned above, as well as an actual slider, a change-up, and a curveball, which has been featured a grand total of 16 times.

Most of Brault’s non-fastball offerings are about average in terms of hard hit percentage save the slider, which is markedly worse (45% compared to 31.7% league average). Those pitches also don’t profile as particularly strong in terms of drawing swings and misses, either. Except, that is, for the slutter.

Pitch Type	Total Pitches	Whiff Rate	Lg. Avg. Whiff Rate
“Slutter”	222	25.2%	12.3%
Slider	95	15.8%	17.2%
Change-Up	228	7.5%	15.8%
Curveball	16	0.0%	12.2%

By whiff rates, the slutter is an objectively elite pitch. Even when compared to league average sliders, the hybrid pitch gets misses a full 8% above average.

Below, I’ve plotted the swings against Brault’s most featured secondary pitches (the change-up and the slutter). When he’s able to bury the hybrid pitch and keep it down in the zone, opposing batters struggle to put the ball in play.

Unfortunately, when he fails to locate his pitch, that’s when he truly runs into trouble.

Emporio: A MeatBrault Joint

A deeper look shows just how much of an issue the hanging breaking ball is. Filtering by balls put into play, I’ve plotted the pitches (curves, slutters, and sliders) by exit velocity. The redder the dot, the worse the outcome. Even on pitches outside the zone, there’s more orange and red in that middle section

If we look at it a different way and use expected wOBA, per Savant, the Slutter turns out to be Brault’s worst pitch in terms of results when put in play. If Brault doesn’t miss the bat, hitters are crushing the ball.

Pitch Type	Brault wOBA BIP	Brault xwOBA BIP	Lg. Avg. xwOBA BIP
Slutter	0.181	0.421	0.365
Four-Seamer	0.392	0.395	0.408
Slider	0.623	0.378	0.360
Two-Seamer	0.330	0.342	0.371
Change-Up	0.274	0.291	0.341

So far, that hard contact hasn’t cost him. On balls put in play, Brault’s “best” pitch has gone for a wOBA of .181, which is massively lucky when compared to his expected numbers. If any pitch in Brault’s repertoire is due for some regression, it’s that one. It’s well and good if he continues to get whiffs on the pitch, but he’ll have to be more consistent with his location moving forward. (For the record, his xwOBA on all slutter pitches was a much rosier .273, more in line with the league average for all sliders of .269.)

Moving Forward

In a forgettable season, Brault’s breakout has been one of the few positives. He hasn’t been ace material, but his outings have looked like the stuff of a capable back-of-the-rotation starter. On the strength of a solid fastball, an elite swing-and-miss offering in his slutter, and serviceable secondary pitches, he’s put together a nice second half.

Moving into 2020, however, Pirates fans should practice cautious optimism. If Brault loses his location, and his luck doesn’t hold, he could be due to take a Trevor Williams-esque step back next season.